Sort of. There’s no chance of the detective uncovering Mafia on my plan (unless they try to bluff us), at least until there’s a day with no innocent volunteers.
That’s not the detective’s job, though. The detective’s job is to cut down the pool of suspect’s to the point where we can’t lose, while we try to spot the guilty within that pool.
Dame Fifi dimly perceives there seems to be a rather unpleasant party game going on - rather like that touring production of The Mousetrap where Enid Semple went most peculiar and put the prop arsenic in everyone's tea.
Mrs White does seem to be rather scornful of the rest of us - but isn't the murderer always the least likely?
Suddenly for a moment she sees how ridiculous she is and bursts out giggling.
"I just don't what is going on here. I really don't. But I don't like it a bit and I don' think we should go around killing people without a whiff of evidence. Particularly not me, or any other innocent."
She continues giggling and her laughter seems a bit hysterical.
I'm confusing myself again. I'd ignored the fact that under Eliab's plan we'll be lynching people. As long as we rely on people who've been cleared by the detective to make nominations we have a no worse than random chance of getting a mafia person. There's a three in eight chance any other uncleared person is a mafia member, assuming three mafia.
Hmmph.
Karen is the person I suspect most at the moment.
I think my chance of being right is little better than random guess though.
Eliab's plan does seem to risk us lynching the doctor though.
Two possibilities: one: the mafia go after people who have been cleared or who have volunteered to be cleared, who don't include the doctor.
The chance of us lynching the doctor by accident if the mafia go after people who have been cleared is just less than half, which if I'm doing the sums right is a better survival chance for the doctor than if we don't lynch anybody and the mafia try to find the doctor.
Two: the mafia go fishing in the pool of uncleared people for the doctor.
If on the other hand we do Eliab's lynch and clear approach, and the mafia go fishing in the pool of uncleared people for the doctor and we lynch someone tonight there's a two in three chance of the doctor surviving one night: at which point we'll have a pool of three innocents. The chance of the doctor surviving a random lynching as well on top of that are five in nine. At that point the mafia will have only two targets to choose from for the doctor, but they'll have pretty much lost.
So I think Eliab's lynching plan gives us the best odds.
Well, I'm sorry too, Karen (don't haunt me if we're wrong!) . But it would have been easy for you to, er, volunteer to be investigated in order to take the heat off you .... and well, you didn't. Besides, the constant screeching is ruining my ability to write. My agent will have fits if I don't deliver my latest two weeks after we're off the island. So sorry, darling! You're for it!
Naomi finds she can't in good conscience do otherwise. no lynching. In any case Karen's husband is a potential convert; her deaconess Judith (aka the 2015 Miss Wessex) should have visited him today seeking aid for .... Well she trusted Judith to think of something appropriate.
Eliab's plan does seem to risk us lynching the doctor though.
The risk can be minimised (not entirely removed, but certainly minimised) if people would listen to my suggestion of saying how they intend to vote if nothing fundamentally changes, and then waiting to see if it does before actually voting.
We probably will nominate our doctor at some point. Some nominations go nowhere, because better guesses emerge. Some nominations are serious threats. If everyone says - "I think I'll vote for <whoever>" - before actually voting, the accused person can judge the danger and respond accordingly (ie. telling us if they have a role that they need to declare). Then we can respond appropriately to any revelations before we are committed to votes which may no longer seem like a good idea.
No one seems to be doing this.
They should.
There are no disadvantages that I can see, and a huge advantage in not forcing unnecessary and premature role claims, or giving a bad guy a potential sacrifice play to take out a special who is on the verge of being voted out when they make a convincing declaration.
This is an important part of my plan. People, please, declare intent first. Then listen. Vote when sure.
(My voting intention for today is currently unchanged.)
At least the nominate, then vote, process we are using does allow for people to declare roles when they are under threat as it gives a heads up of where suspicions are turning rather than finding everyone has already started voting for you and the mafia can deliver the coup de grace.
This does of course assume that the Doctor is reading often enough to know when to put their head above the parapet.
I'm leaning towards Karen as she has already declared but she is behaving more like a spoilt toddler than someone trying to give us a good reason to believe her. Admittedly it is harder to claim citizen and be believed, I just need to be sure in my own mind I'm acting correctly.
If so, then the business of announcing intentions but waiting for evidence to either confirm, or change your mind, seems at risk of missing out on lynching if a Mafia just because we couldn't make up our minds.
but I don't see any time limit (yet), so I'll humour you this time Ethan
my current intention is to vote for Karen. She's seemed the most guilty , and nobody else has attreacted more attention, or made a strong case against lynching Karen - but nor for that matter do we have a really convincing reason for doing it either, so I can still be persuaded
I know from a previous life, you can be completely innocent and a stray comment or certain reaction can have the Mafia whipping everyone up into a lynching frenzy and you can scream innocence until you are blue in the face and it won't help, especially if you have a particularly skilled word-twisting weasel of a Mafia member - who *knows* your are innocent - on your case.
If we do lynch Karen, and she is innocent, we'll have to take a good look at how we got here.
(Out of character, but I'm in editor mode so I feel the need to be anal: I did volunteer. That's why I had Karen say that she was an innocent citizen, so you could check it out. That said, Eliab was probably a better investigation choice, so I back your choice to investigate him instead.)
Yikes. Now I'm confused. We ARE in voting stage, aren't we? (I saw the bit about being innocent, but not a specific request to be investigated as such)
Saying that you aren’t a special isn’t the same as inviting the detective to check you, even if there’s a gobshite proposing that non-specials volunteer to be checked. I can’t see a better option than Karen White, but in case I’m wrong, I don’t mind pitching in and helping build a raft if we do vote to throw you off the island. Fair?
Mario has been quiet. Scared. He wants some more explanation, intimidated to ask ever since Ethan said be suspected Mario. What is that? Ethan is either right or wrong about Karen but is completely wrong about Mario. This gives Mario great caution. Which in his mind means Mario should follow his lead or not. Which is beyond this vote but this vote is very importan . Ethan is certainly dominant. Intimidating. If Karen in innocent like Mario is, how does killing her help the rest of us defeat the forces of darkness? There's some reasoning that I don't follow: sounds like statistics or math. If I follow Ethan and vote for Karen to die, and she's proved innocent after what does that say about Ethan? If she's Mafia then Ethan is the one to follow. Is Mario reasoning correctly? And what actual data comes to bear on this question? Did Ethan inadvertently not notice Karen volunteered or was it intentional? Or was that fake volunteering as Ethan suggested.
Putting everything out there if Ethan was mafia and Dai OnStage went with him, and they're experienced players could they be scheming evilly in the open, but Lambie and Andy Kipper went with them; does first agreement mean anything? Consideration suggests more likely not.
Mario's also very uncomfortable with the quietness of some. Wants to go off and cry. Wants too avoid death of good people: in the end it boils down to:limited evidence from reasoning, thus we need some implications from Karen's behaviour. If I ask one question before deciding it's whether there's any credibility to Karen's protest here http://forums.shipoffools.com/discussion/comment/207479/#Comment_207479
I think answer me that and I'll commit to vote.
[Real life note]
Internet was down for 12 hours. Someone crashed a car into some infrastructure thingy called a "cabinet", whatever that is. They're repairing something related over the weekend which may mean another outage. They're unclear about duration.
[/]
Woe! Lambie cries, sitting on the shore. The Rapture has come--poor Mario told me it would!--and I was Left Behind! Lambie sobs for a moment or two, then brightens up.
Ah well, she thinks, and pats her rump. At least I have a very nice Right Behind to go with it.
I am going to follow up on my announced intention of voting for Karen to be lynched, if only to prevent analysis paralysis and hopefully getting the game moving again
am now expecting everyone else to pile in at the same time, to make it look like I'm sort of criminal lynchpin or something
Nemmy saunters back into sight after mooching about exploring and napping.
Maybe someone is onto something. I’m not one to follow criminal linchpins but I’m voting for Karen
Naomi considers that the potion hidden in the volume on Song of Songs hadn't been sufficient to put everyone out for the entire night (one way to ensure the mafia or the vigilante doesn't hit anyone).
Mario has not heard anything which tells him that anyone is guilty. He asked for reasons and no-one gave any. Has the Mafia has convinced the group that Karen is guilty? We should not do the Mafia's work for them. He votes against lynching.
well, with Nemmy's vote we reached the 6, so anyone coming after that - Mario and Mr Huang (paging @SirPalomides ) can hide in whatever choice they make.
Or at least give us a hand building Karen's raft. I'm not sure the bloody thing is going to hold together. These palm leaves do not weave together nicely to make a sturdy binding, like what you see in the films, and I'm not sure I'd trust my weight to it for however long it'll be for the studio to get their boat out. Help would be appreciated here.
(and there I was planning a dramatic death scene. Now I have to refigure it geesh. Though actually probably glad that pitiful Karen goes off brought low but not dead)
At the last minute, Karen loses her resolve and has to be forced onto the raft. As she floats away, she is still squealing vainly "Not the right kind of people! Unpleasant nasty people! I'll tell my husband on you!"
That's disappointing. Although the odds were always five to three against her being mafia.
Karen (Gwai), Fifi (Firenze), Naomi (Net Spinster), and Mario (NOprophet_NØprofit) voted No Lynching.
Mario voted after the issue was decided, which would be such a classic thing to do as the mafia it probably means he's innocent.
I, Lambie LaCosta (Lamb Chopped), Ethan (Eliab), Nem (not entirely me), Penny (Pendragon), and Andy Kipper (Wet Kipper), voted for lynching.
Wet Kipper voted for a lynching with dark mutterings about having to look at how we'd got here if it turned out Karen was innocent, which again is such a classic thing to do as the mafia he's probably innocent too.
Mr Steven Huang (SirPalomides) did not bother to vote and hasn't chipped in for a while. That suggests to me that a) he is innocent; and b) we have to proceed as if he isn't in the game. That means we're one innocent down. That means we have one more chance to lynch the wrong person (assuming three mafia). On the other hand, it means that if you all believe me when I say I'm innocent, then the mafia have only got one chance to off the doctor.
Eliab's plan calls on someone who is innocent and not the doctor to volunteer themselves to be cleared by Lambie. Eliab needs to solemnly swear not to nominate that person for lynching next round. The bad news is that the mafia have a one in three chance of getting the doctor if they decide to try to get the doctor since they'll know which of the three innocents left over are innocent.
Eliab's plan calls on someone who is innocent and not the doctor to volunteer themselves to be cleared by Lambie. Eliab needs to solemnly swear not to nominate that person for lynching next round.
Yeah, sure. I promise. But that person needs to make clear that they are definitely inviting Lambie to check them (and Lambie needs to be on-side with the plan).
Also, they have to be readable, in case that wasn't obvious.
Other thoughts - the bad guys have basically three possible plays tonight.
They might hunt the doctor.
They might take a chance on the detective.
They might try to thin the pool of known innocents (which would be me, and if they pick that one - cheerio, guys, it's been emotional).
That means the doctor should think long and hard about guarding one of:
* him/her-self
* Lambie
* Me
And when the doctor has thought long and hard about that, they should guard Lambie. Now is not the time to be arsing about. Lambie's the one person we can't afford to lose.
as night rumbles on, Andy Kipper wakes from a horrific dream
....What if the "missing in Action" Mr Huang was actually our detective and has been unable to counter Lambie's claim - and Eliab's whole plan is for him and Lambie to work together as Mafia shaping the debate and the course of action, vouching for each other to make it look as though they're innocent, and then picking us off one by one because they already know who is or isn't innocent: people "volunteer" and Lambie is able to confirm their innocence (because she knows the volunteer isn't Mafia) or perhaps another Mafia volunteers and Lambie confirms them as "innocent" and then together they pick on someone else they also know isn't one of them.....
he shakes it off as surely nonsense, and realises he hasn't seen that mysterious cat for a while.
as night rumbles on, Andy Kipper wakes from a horrific dream
....What if the "missing in Action" Mr Huang was actually our detective and has been unable to counter Lambie's claim - and Eliab's whole plan is for him and Lambie to work together as Mafia shaping the debate and the course of action, vouching for each other to make it look as though they're innocent, and then picking us off one by one because they already know who is or isn't innocent: people "volunteer" and Lambie is able to confirm their innocence (because she knows the volunteer isn't Mafia) or perhaps another Mafia volunteers and Lambie confirms them as "innocent" and then together they pick on someone else they also know isn't one of them.....
he shakes it off as surely nonsense, and realises he hasn't seen that mysterious cat for a while.
Mario was wondering about those who led the lynching charge at poor Karen too. The problem is that there are conspiracies set amid limited data which is very difficult to confirm or deny. (It is much easier in prison to understand motives.) I hadn't thought of the missing Mr. Huang.
Andy wakes again from another fevered dream, but only partly.
He wanders around, half awake, muttering about needing to find water
Gentle hands guide him. "we'll help you find water" they say
He starts to wake more as he feels the cold air of increased altitude and can hear the splash of the sea against rocks
The hands are rougher now, pushing instead of guiding, as he comes to the edge of the cliff
"here's your water" the voices now snigger as they push him over the edge
Andy wakes fully as he falls, but all he can think of is
"surely this is one of those dreams where you think you're falling, and then you wake up?"
Coughs uncomfortably. "Andy WAS indeed a citizen, but, um, he's dead now, and last night's investigation is for naught. I very much fear it was my stated intention to investigate him that caused the Mafia to target him, for just that purpose--that is, to make sure I wasted all of our time. So I'm not going to indicate whom I'm investigating anymore. At least, not when Certain People are clearly listening!"
Coughs uncomfortably. "Andy WAS indeed a citizen, but, um, he's dead now, and last night's investigation is for naught. I very much fear it was my stated intention to investigate him that caused the Mafia to target him, for just that purpose--that is, to make sure I wasted all of our time. So I'm not going to indicate whom I'm investigating anymore. At least, not when Certain People are clearly listening!"
What we've done is terminate a citizen and lost 2 innocent citizens to over-night lynching. I want to hear from everyone and especially Ethan, and also Dai on what's happened please. Are we being played?
What we've done is terminate a citizen and lost 2 innocent citizens to over-night lynching. I want to hear from everyone and especially Ethan, and also Dai on what's happened please. Are we being played?
I don't like the situation we're in, but I don't think we could have played it better. Karen was essentially a random guess. It was less than evens that a random guess would pick a mafia person, but if we'd waited to start lynching until a random guess was more likely to hit a mafia person than not, we'd have ended up in essentially the same situation as we are now.
If we're being played then that would mean Lambie is a mafia member pretending to be the detective. It would also mean that the real detective hasn't called her on it.
I think both those moves would be mistakes on the part of the players involved - especially the real detective keeping quiet, so I think it's almost certain that Lambie is being honest.
So unless someone speaks up and claims to be the detective, and if they do, why didn't they speak up earlier? I think our current situation is:
we have nine players.
One of them @SirPalomides seems to have dropped out of the game. If he reads this could he please drop back in?
That leaves eight.
Two (Lambie and Eliab) are the detective and vouched for by the detective.
That leaves six. Of the six of us three, or if we're lucky only two, are mafia. That means that if Lambie takes a guess at which one to lynch there's a fifty-fifty chance she's right. (I trust Lambie's guesses over Eliab's.) I think that's the best chance we'll get.
If you can think of a better strategy then put it forward.
Comments
That’s not the detective’s job, though. The detective’s job is to cut down the pool of suspect’s to the point where we can’t lose, while we try to spot the guilty within that pool.
Mrs White does seem to be rather scornful of the rest of us - but isn't the murderer always the least likely?
On consideration, she votes No Lynching
Suddenly for a moment she sees how ridiculous she is and bursts out giggling.
"I just don't what is going on here. I really don't. But I don't like it a bit and I don' think we should go around killing people without a whiff of evidence. Particularly not me, or any other innocent."
She continues giggling and her laughter seems a bit hysterical.
Hmmph.
Karen is the person I suspect most at the moment.
I think my chance of being right is little better than random guess though.
Eliab's plan does seem to risk us lynching the doctor though.
Two possibilities: one: the mafia go after people who have been cleared or who have volunteered to be cleared, who don't include the doctor.
The chance of us lynching the doctor by accident if the mafia go after people who have been cleared is just less than half, which if I'm doing the sums right is a better survival chance for the doctor than if we don't lynch anybody and the mafia try to find the doctor.
Two: the mafia go fishing in the pool of uncleared people for the doctor.
If on the other hand we do Eliab's lynch and clear approach, and the mafia go fishing in the pool of uncleared people for the doctor and we lynch someone tonight there's a two in three chance of the doctor surviving one night: at which point we'll have a pool of three innocents. The chance of the doctor surviving a random lynching as well on top of that are five in nine. At that point the mafia will have only two targets to choose from for the doctor, but they'll have pretty much lost.
So I think Eliab's lynching plan gives us the best odds.
Karen (Gwai) Sorry, Karen.
The risk can be minimised (not entirely removed, but certainly minimised) if people would listen to my suggestion of saying how they intend to vote if nothing fundamentally changes, and then waiting to see if it does before actually voting.
We probably will nominate our doctor at some point. Some nominations go nowhere, because better guesses emerge. Some nominations are serious threats. If everyone says - "I think I'll vote for <whoever>" - before actually voting, the accused person can judge the danger and respond accordingly (ie. telling us if they have a role that they need to declare). Then we can respond appropriately to any revelations before we are committed to votes which may no longer seem like a good idea.
No one seems to be doing this.
They should.
There are no disadvantages that I can see, and a huge advantage in not forcing unnecessary and premature role claims, or giving a bad guy a potential sacrifice play to take out a special who is on the verge of being voted out when they make a convincing declaration.
This is an important part of my plan. People, please, declare intent first. Then listen. Vote when sure.
(My voting intention for today is currently unchanged.)
This does of course assume that the Doctor is reading often enough to know when to put their head above the parapet.
I'm leaning towards Karen as she has already declared but she is behaving more like a spoilt toddler than someone trying to give us a good reason to believe her. Admittedly it is harder to claim citizen and be believed, I just need to be sure in my own mind I'm acting correctly.
If so, then the business of announcing intentions but waiting for evidence to either confirm, or change your mind, seems at risk of missing out on lynching if a Mafia just because we couldn't make up our minds.
but I don't see any time limit (yet), so I'll humour you this time Ethan
my current intention is to vote for Karen. She's seemed the most guilty , and nobody else has attreacted more attention, or made a strong case against lynching Karen - but nor for that matter do we have a really convincing reason for doing it either, so I can still be persuaded
I know from a previous life, you can be completely innocent and a stray comment or certain reaction can have the Mafia whipping everyone up into a lynching frenzy and you can scream innocence until you are blue in the face and it won't help, especially if you have a particularly skilled word-twisting weasel of a Mafia member - who *knows* your are innocent - on your case.
If we do lynch Karen, and she is innocent, we'll have to take a good look at how we got here.
Do we have a time limit to vote?
And yes voting stage)
Please cast your votes.
Putting everything out there if Ethan was mafia and Dai OnStage went with him, and they're experienced players could they be scheming evilly in the open, but Lambie and Andy Kipper went with them; does first agreement mean anything? Consideration suggests more likely not.
Mario's also very uncomfortable with the quietness of some. Wants to go off and cry. Wants too avoid death of good people: in the end it boils down to:limited evidence from reasoning, thus we need some implications from Karen's behaviour. If I ask one question before deciding it's whether there's any credibility to Karen's protest here http://forums.shipoffools.com/discussion/comment/207479/#Comment_207479
I think answer me that and I'll commit to vote.
[Real life note]
Internet was down for 12 hours. Someone crashed a car into some infrastructure thingy called a "cabinet", whatever that is. They're repairing something related over the weekend which may mean another outage. They're unclear about duration.
[/]
Ah well, she thinks, and pats her rump. At least I have a very nice Right Behind to go with it.
I am going to follow up on my announced intention of voting for Karen to be lynched, if only to prevent analysis paralysis and hopefully getting the game moving again
am now expecting everyone else to pile in at the same time, to make it look like I'm sort of criminal lynchpin or something
Maybe someone is onto something. I’m not one to follow criminal linchpins but I’m voting for Karen
Or at least give us a hand building Karen's raft. I'm not sure the bloody thing is going to hold together. These palm leaves do not weave together nicely to make a sturdy binding, like what you see in the films, and I'm not sure I'd trust my weight to it for however long it'll be for the studio to get their boat out. Help would be appreciated here.
"Here take this" and offer her the Anchor Bible Book of Jonah, "I think you will find some useful stuff inside".
(Apologies – my family have been here for my birthday and I’ve only been intermittently online.)
The compulsory voting rule doesn’t like it’s working so I’m arbitrarily going to scrap it.
Karen White is lynched. She was a citizen.
Karen (Gwai), Fifi (Firenze), Naomi (Net Spinster), and Mario (NOprophet_NØprofit) voted No Lynching.
Mario voted after the issue was decided, which would be such a classic thing to do as the mafia it probably means he's innocent.
I, Lambie LaCosta (Lamb Chopped), Ethan (Eliab), Nem (not entirely me), Penny (Pendragon), and Andy Kipper (Wet Kipper), voted for lynching.
Wet Kipper voted for a lynching with dark mutterings about having to look at how we'd got here if it turned out Karen was innocent, which again is such a classic thing to do as the mafia he's probably innocent too.
Mr Steven Huang (SirPalomides) did not bother to vote and hasn't chipped in for a while. That suggests to me that a) he is innocent; and b) we have to proceed as if he isn't in the game. That means we're one innocent down. That means we have one more chance to lynch the wrong person (assuming three mafia). On the other hand, it means that if you all believe me when I say I'm innocent, then the mafia have only got one chance to off the doctor.
Eliab's plan calls on someone who is innocent and not the doctor to volunteer themselves to be cleared by Lambie. Eliab needs to solemnly swear not to nominate that person for lynching next round. The bad news is that the mafia have a one in three chance of getting the doctor if they decide to try to get the doctor since they'll know which of the three innocents left over are innocent.
Night falls.
Yeah, sure. I promise. But that person needs to make clear that they are definitely inviting Lambie to check them (and Lambie needs to be on-side with the plan).
Also, they have to be readable, in case that wasn't obvious.
Other thoughts - the bad guys have basically three possible plays tonight.
They might hunt the doctor.
They might take a chance on the detective.
They might try to thin the pool of known innocents (which would be me, and if they pick that one - cheerio, guys, it's been emotional).
That means the doctor should think long and hard about guarding one of:
* him/her-self
* Lambie
* Me
And when the doctor has thought long and hard about that, they should guard Lambie. Now is not the time to be arsing about. Lambie's the one person we can't afford to lose.
....What if the "missing in Action" Mr Huang was actually our detective and has been unable to counter Lambie's claim - and Eliab's whole plan is for him and Lambie to work together as Mafia shaping the debate and the course of action, vouching for each other to make it look as though they're innocent, and then picking us off one by one because they already know who is or isn't innocent: people "volunteer" and Lambie is able to confirm their innocence (because she knows the volunteer isn't Mafia) or perhaps another Mafia volunteers and Lambie confirms them as "innocent" and then together they pick on someone else they also know isn't one of them.....
he shakes it off as surely nonsense, and realises he hasn't seen that mysterious cat for a while.
Mario was wondering about those who led the lynching charge at poor Karen too. The problem is that there are conspiracies set amid limited data which is very difficult to confirm or deny. (It is much easier in prison to understand motives.) I hadn't thought of the missing Mr. Huang.
The producers are rather short on material for the next episode… Could you get your night actions to me please?
Thanks
Scarlett has more or less recovered from her bender but it has given her an appropriate pallor and sombre tone.
Good evening viewers. Big happenings on the island. Have we ever seen anything like this? Death! And lynching!
Did you think it was over? Well, no. Poor Andy Kipper. Let’s all have a moment’s silence.
Andy was a citizen.
He wanders around, half awake, muttering about needing to find water
Gentle hands guide him. "we'll help you find water" they say
He starts to wake more as he feels the cold air of increased altitude and can hear the splash of the sea against rocks
The hands are rougher now, pushing instead of guiding, as he comes to the edge of the cliff
"here's your water" the voices now snigger as they push him over the edge
Andy wakes fully as he falls, but all he can think of is
"surely this is one of those dreams where you think you're falling, and then you wake up?"
and now he really is a Wet Kipper
If we're being played then that would mean Lambie is a mafia member pretending to be the detective. It would also mean that the real detective hasn't called her on it.
I think both those moves would be mistakes on the part of the players involved - especially the real detective keeping quiet, so I think it's almost certain that Lambie is being honest.
So unless someone speaks up and claims to be the detective, and if they do, why didn't they speak up earlier? I think our current situation is:
we have nine players.
One of them @SirPalomides seems to have dropped out of the game. If he reads this could he please drop back in?
That leaves eight.
Two (Lambie and Eliab) are the detective and vouched for by the detective.
That leaves six. Of the six of us three, or if we're lucky only two, are mafia. That means that if Lambie takes a guess at which one to lynch there's a fifty-fifty chance she's right. (I trust Lambie's guesses over Eliab's.) I think that's the best chance we'll get.
If you can think of a better strategy then put it forward.