But googling it seems to indicate that it refers to a different phenomenon - in this case that the majority of people are only protected from a temporary infection while a small number are protected from a life-threatening illness.
It used to mean that, but it's OK to take on another meaning.
Regards, the childhood inflammatory disease related to Covid 19--our local Lutheran church camp has decided not to sponsor the usual youth camps this year. They will have limited small family or congregational retreats.
That would seem to be a sensible move, and I guess quite a few summer activities for church, and other groups (such as Scouts/Guides), will be cancelled, postponed, or modified this year.
UK Guides and Scouts have already cancelled everything this summer, months ago; the current focus is on onlineactivities. The big Jamboree was cancelled in April.
That would seem to be a sensible move, and I guess quite a few summer activities for church, and other groups (such as Scouts/Guides), will be cancelled, postponed, or modified this year.
Better safe than sorry!
All of our church in-person events this summer are cancelled. Most scouting activities are cancelled, some might still go ahead with Covid modifications. Girl Scouts seems to be slightly more conservative; BSA is a little more gung-ho about trying to run some things. This could be because BSA is more outdoorsy; it could also be political (all the conservatives left GSUSA because it supports womens' rights - they're mostly in American Heritage Girls now. BSA still has most of its conservatives, although a few walked over the introduction of troops for girls.) It's possible that my kids' BSA troop will camp as a troop later in the summer, but they're not attending any larger gatherings.
Church preschool is trying to understand how to open in the fall - the state regulator is being pretty efficient about giving instructions, and they're pretty sensible, so we'll just follow them.
At least my Girl Scout cookie supplier has indicated her troop will be selling the cookies in the near future, though I do not know if it will be in person or online.
It does seem a bit disappointing if they are flat out cancelled at the local level for all summer
(as supposed to cancelling the pre-arranged stuff and being very careful with the stuff that they do do)
Currently Girl Guiding UK is meeting online - weekly sessions for local groups which started before Easter, and there's an online festival this weekend. (This was in the links above, because I thought it too much of a tangent for this thread.) Campsites and outside activity centres are still closed and meetings are not happening in person, all pre-planned camps have been cancelled or postponed for a year. Whether there will be in person meetings this summer is under review as guidelines change.
Summer has been cancelled. It’s particularly galling that the likelihood is that all restrictions will be lifted just in time for the weather to be such that we won’t want to go outside anyway.
Why couldn’t this virus have started in August, so that we’d have been entering lockdown in October when the nights are getting longer, the days are getting colder, and there’s generally a lot less reason to go outside anyway? We’re basically going to go straight from winter to winter with just this suspended animation in the middle. And I sodding hate winter.
Why couldn’t this virus have started in August, so that we’d have been entering lockdown in October when the nights are getting longer, the days are getting colder, and there’s generally a lot less reason to go outside anyway? We’re basically going to go straight from winter to winter with just this suspended animation in the middle. And I sodding hate winter.
Umm, that is when the second wave is expected to begin (Aug 2020). Hold on to your seat.
Looking at the increasing numbers of new cases across many US States, there are worrying early signs of another wave already under way. Over 28 thousand cases in the last 24 hours. CNN reports that 19 States are seeing significant increases, only 12 some further decline and the rest plateaued.
The next few days look critical for the States which have gambled the most.
Summer has been cancelled. It’s particularly galling that the likelihood is that all restrictions will be lifted just in time for the weather to be such that we won’t want to go outside anyway.
Why couldn’t this virus have started in August, so that we’d have been entering lockdown in October when the nights are getting longer, the days are getting colder, and there’s generally a lot less reason to go outside anyway? We’re basically going to go straight from winter to winter with just this suspended animation in the middle. And I sodding hate winter.
Fuck no. I would have gone even more nuts stuck at home with a 4 year old if we couldn't even go outside (winter here means force 8 or above on the Beaufort scale, laced with sand, rain and/or hail).
List of countries with at least 10,000 known COVID-19 cases.
United States - 1,620,902 (1,142,379 / 382,169 / 96,354)
Russia - 317,554 (221,774 / 92,681 / 3,099)
Brazil - 310,921 (164,879 / 125,960 / 20,082)
Spain - 280,117 (55,219 / 196,958 / 27,940) 12.4%
United Kingdom - 250,908 (214,522 / 344 / 36,042)
Italy - 228,006 (60,960 / 134,560 / 32,486) 19.4%
France - 181,826 (89,753 / 63,858 / 28,215)
Germany - 179,021 (12,712 / 158,000 / 8,309) 5.0%
Turkey - 153,548 (34,309 / 114,990 / 4,249) 3.6%
Iran - 129,341 (21,528 / 100,564 / 7,249) 6.7%
India - 118,501 (66,363 / 48,553 / 3,585)
Peru - 108,769 (62,034 / 43,587 / 3,148)
China - 82,971 (82 / 78,255 / 4,634) 5.6%
Canada - 81,324 (33,457 / 41,715 / 6,152)
Saudi Arabia - 65,077 (28,686 / 36,040 / 351)
Mexico - 59,567 (12,400 / 40,657 / 6,510) 13.8%
Chile - 57,581 (33,000 / 23,992 / 589)
Belgium - 56,235 (32,061 / 14,988 / 9,186)
Pakistan - 50,694 (34,426 / 15,201 / 1,067)
Netherlands - 44,700 (38,675 / 250 / 5,775)
Qatar - 38,651 (31,346 / 7,288 / 17)
Ecuador - 35,306 (28,810 / 3,557 / 2,939)
Belarus - 33,371 (21,129 / 12,057 / 185)
Sweden - 32,172 (23,330 / 4,971 / 3,871)
Switzerland - 30,694 (896 / 27,900 / 1,898) 6.4%
Portugal - 29,912 (22,183 / 6,452 / 1,277)
Singapore - 29,812 (17,672 / 12,117 / 23)
Bangladesh - 28,511 (22,501 / 5,602 / 408)
United Arab Emirates - 26,898 (13,906 / 12,755 / 237)
Ireland - 24,391 (1,748 / 21,060 / 1,583) 7.0%
Indonesia - 20,162 (14,046 / 4,838 / 1,278)
Poland - 20,143 (10,719 / 8,452 / 972)
Ukraine - 19,706 (12,900 / 6,227 / 579)
South Africa - 19,137 (9,818 / 8,950 / 369)
Kuwait - 18,609 (13,275 / 5,205 / 129)
Colombia - 18,330 (13,247 / 4,431 / 652)
Romania - 17,585 (5,848 / 10,581 / 1,156) 9.8%
Israel - 16,683 (2,680 / 13,724 / 279) 2.0%
Japan - 16,424 (2,975 / 12,672 / 777) 5.8%
Austria - 16,404 (820 / 14,951 / 633) 4.1%
Egypt - 15,003 (10,090 / 4,217 / 696)
Dominican Republic - 13,657 (5,843 / 7,366 / 448)
Philippines - 13,434 (9,588 / 3,000 / 846)
Denmark - 11,182 (978 / 9,643 / 561) 5.5%
South Korea - 11,142 (716 / 10,162 / 264) 2.5%
Serbia - 10,919 (5,312 / 5,370 / 237)
Panama - 10,116 (3,580 / 6,245 / 291)
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries twenty-nine of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
Panama has joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
What is the point of having a scientific advisory group and then simply ignore what they say and do exactly what they say will result in killing people? Is it safe to assume that the government are going to stop talking about "following the science"?
Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance. A staggering 40.3 percent of the state's workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.
<snip>
Georgia, which began pushing to resume economic activity on April 24, presents an early reality check as the White House amps up pressure on governors to lift shutdown orders and President Donald Trump’s economic advisers predict jobless claims will nosedive after the reopening. The state’s persistent unemployment numbers suggest that government restrictions aren’t the only cause of skyrocketing layoffs and furloughs — and that the economy might not fully recover until consumers feel safe.
The article isn't that long, but the basic gist is that while people enjoy going to shops or eating out, they don't enjoy those things enough to risk a non-trivial chance of slowly choking to death surrounded by strangers.
"Getting the economy going again" is nowhere near as simple as saying "you can go back to work now", nor even "you can send your children back to school so that you can go back to work". There are very few businesses that don't rely on customers, and those customers need to be buying. Ultimately in our consumer-driven economy that means people back in the shops, and that needs both confidence that it's safe to venture out again (or, even to take a package at the front door) and people with pay in their pocket to spend.
In the UK, we're currently making sure people have money to spend through the furlough scheme and similar for self-employed (imperfect though that is). If that stops when the government says a business can fully restart (ie: that the government won't keep covering wages of people they think can work) then those businesses are going to struggle until their customers go back to buying their products and services. If they go under or need to lay people off then that's going to reduce the customer base further, which is going to both suppress the "getting the economy going again" aim and cost the government through increasing unemployment payments. How do we get out of the economic downturn? I think (though I'm no expert) that you need to start with keeping the lockdown in place until the "is it safe?" question has largely evaporated so that people still have money to spend when they're able to spend it. Then you probably need to be aggressively taking people on in new roles, especially those who are already unemployed or very likely to be unemployed once the furlough scheme ends, to help keep the virus under control - in many small local offices to help trace contacts for new infections, testing stations and laboratories (these will all need lots of clerical support, as well as the specialist roles); you can be doing this while the lockdown is in place, many of those jobs need to be filled before lifting lockdown anyway.
Georgia’s early move to start easing stay-at-home restrictions nearly a month ago has done little to stem the state’s flood of unemployment claims — illustrating how hard it is to bring jobs back while consumers are still afraid to go outside.
Weekly applications for jobless benefits have remained so elevated that Georgia now leads the country in terms of the proportion of its workforce applying for unemployment assistance. A staggering 40.3 percent of the state's workers — two out of every five — has filed for unemployment insurance payments since the coronavirus pandemic led to widespread shutdowns in mid-March, a POLITICO review of Labor Department data shows.
<snip>
Georgia, which began pushing to resume economic activity on April 24, presents an early reality check as the White House amps up pressure on governors to lift shutdown orders and President Donald Trump’s economic advisers predict jobless claims will nosedive after the reopening. The state’s persistent unemployment numbers suggest that government restrictions aren’t the only cause of skyrocketing layoffs and furloughs — and that the economy might not fully recover until consumers feel safe.
The article isn't that long, but the basic gist is that while people enjoy going to shops or eating out, they don't enjoy those things enough to risk a non-trivial chance of slowly choking to death surrounded by strangers.
This seems similar to the period before the lockdown, when in the UK people anticipated it. The schools were emptying, ditto shops, football closed down, not because Boris decreed it. In other words, people don't simply obey the govt, they have their own minds.
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
The entire document is available online. I think the key is the chart on page 13, which does support the idea that they are signalling against opening schools, even with 95% adherence to all the other social distancing measures, the majority of the scenarios modeled have Rt going above 1.
Someone - perhaps @Gramps49 - was asking about fits for R(t) for US states. I came across this, which looks half-way reasonable at a glance, but I have made no attempt to validate it. They make their code and data available, so it's checkable...
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
The entire document is available online. I think the key is the chart on page 13, which does support the idea that they are signalling against opening schools, even with 95% adherence to all the other social distancing measures, the majority of the scenarios modeled have Rt going above 1.
That assumes equal infectivity of children compared with adults. My read of it is that they're not close to having enough information to offer reliable advice, which makes the government's chosen course of action seem risky and cavalier.
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
The entire document is available online. I think the key is the chart on page 13, which does support the idea that they are signalling against opening schools, even with 95% adherence to all the other social distancing measures, the majority of the scenarios modeled have Rt going above 1.
That assumes equal infectivity of children compared with adults. My read of it is that they're not close to having enough information to offer reliable advice, which makes the government's chosen course of action seem risky and cavalier.
Yes, I guess in the absence of having a more accurate figure for the infectiousness of children the precautionary principle has them use a higher figure. Thing is the government has staked itself to the June 1st to the point of running into a version of the sunk cost fallacy.
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
The entire document is available online. I think the key is the chart on page 13, which does support the idea that they are signalling against opening schools, even with 95% adherence to all the other social distancing measures, the majority of the scenarios modeled have Rt going above 1.
That assumes equal infectivity of children compared with adults. My read of it is that they're not close to having enough information to offer reliable advice, which makes the government's chosen course of action seem risky and cavalier.
Yes, I guess in the absence of having a more accurate figure for the infectiousness of children the precautionary principle has them use a higher figure. Thing is the government has staked itself to the June 1st to the point of running into a version of the sunk cost fallacy.
I thought it was just that they were enjoying picking a fight with the teachers' unions.
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
The entire document is available online. I think the key is the chart on page 13, which does support the idea that they are signalling against opening schools, even with 95% adherence to all the other social distancing measures, the majority of the scenarios modeled have Rt going above 1.
That assumes equal infectivity of children compared with adults. My read of it is that they're not close to having enough information to offer reliable advice, which makes the government's chosen course of action seem risky and cavalier.
Yes, I guess in the absence of having a more accurate figure for the infectiousness of children the precautionary principle has them use a higher figure. Thing is the government has staked itself to the June 1st to the point of running into a version of the sunk cost fallacy.
I thought it was just that they were enjoying picking a fight with the teachers' unions.
They probably did, but now/then it turned into another mini culture war and here we are.
Someone - perhaps @Gramps49 - was asking about fits for R(t) for US states. I came across this, which looks half-way reasonable at a glance, but I have made no attempt to validate it. They make their code and data available, so it's checkable...
Excellent. Thanks for posting the link. I will continue to follow. I note it seems about a day behind the Coronavirus counter, though
List of countries with at least 10,000 known COVID-19 cases.
United States - 1,645,094 (1,144,246 / 403,201 / 97,647)
Brazil - 332,382 (175,836 / 135,430 / 21,116)
Russia - 326,448 (223,374 / 99,825 / 3,249)
Spain - 281,904 (56,318 / 196,958 / 28,628) 12.7%
United Kingdom - 254,195 (217,458 / 344 / 36,393)
Italy - 228,658 (59,322 / 136,720 / 32,616) 19.3%
France - 182,219 (89,721 / 64,209 / 28,289)
Germany - 179,713 (12,361 / 159,000 / 8,352) 5.0%
Turkey - 154,500 (34,113 / 116,111 / 4,276) 3.6%
Iran - 131,652 (22,076 / 102,276 / 7,300) 6.7%
India - 125,101 (69,551 / 51,824 / 3,726)
Peru - 111,698 (63,606 / 44,848 / 3,244)
China - 82,971 (79 / 78,258 / 4,634) 5.6%
Canada - 82,480 (33,636 / 42,594 / 6,250)
Saudi Arabia - 67,719 (28,352 / 39,003 / 364)
Mexico - 62,527 (12,813 / 42,725 / 6,989) 14.1%
Chile - 61,857 (35,885 / 25,342 / 630)
Belgium - 56,511 (32,176 / 15,123 / 9,212)
Pakistan - 50,694 (34,426 / 15,201 / 1,067)
Netherlands - 44,888 (38,850 / 250 / 5,788)
Qatar - 40,481 (32,569 / 7,893 / 19)
Ecuador - 35,828 (29,215 / 3,557 / 3,056)
Belarus - 34,303 (21,280 / 12,833 / 190)
Sweden - 32,809 (23,913 / 4,971 / 3,925)
Switzerland - 30,707 (904 / 27,900 / 1,903) 6.4%
Singapore - 30,426 (17,408 / 12,995 / 23)
Bangladesh - 30,205 (23,583 / 6,190 / 432)
Portugal - 30,200 (21,321 / 7,590 / 1,289)
United Arab Emirates - 27,892 (13,853 / 13,798 / 241)
Ireland - 24,506 (1,854 / 21,060 / 1,592) 7.0%
Indonesia - 20,796 (14,413 / 5,057 / 1,326)
Poland - 20,619 (10,906 / 8,731 / 982)
Ukraine - 20,148 (12,975 / 6,585 / 588)
South Africa - 20,125 (9,624 / 10,104 / 397)
Kuwait - 19,564 (13,911 / 5,515 / 138)
Colombia - 19,131 (13,874 / 4,575 / 682)
Romania - 17,712 (5,769 / 10,777 / 1,166) 9.8%
Israel - 16,690 (2,496 / 13,915 / 279) 2.0%
Japan - 16,513 (2,712 / 13,005 / 796) 5.8%
Austria - 16,436 (796 / 15,005 / 635) 4.1%
Egypt - 15,786 (10,705 / 4,374 / 707)
Dominican Republic - 13,989 (5,961 / 7,572 / 456)
Philippines - 13,597 (9,648 / 3,092 / 857)
Denmark - 11,230 (905 / 9,764 / 561) 5.4%
South Korea - 11,165 (705 / 10,194 / 266) 2.5%
Serbia - 11,024 (5,246 / 5,541 / 237)
Argentina - 10,649 (7,154 / 3,062 / 433)
Panama - 10,267 (3,697 / 6,275 / 295)
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries twenty-nine of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
Argentina has joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
But...but...Brother Kenneth Copeland (standing in the Orfice of a Prarfet of the Lard) has both banished Covid-19, and summoned the South Wind to blow it away. He says that the US of A is now healed, and well again.
Can he possibly be mistaken?
(Check out Copeland on YouTube - there are several videos, but I can't bear to look at his demonic features again... ).
But...but...Brother Kenneth Copeland (standing in the Orfice of a Prarfet of the Lard) has both banished Covid-19, and summoned the South Wind to blow it away. He says that the US of A is now healed, and well again.
My state was declining, but in the past week I see from the headlines that the daily new cases have exploded to more than double what the cases were even before the decline. I've been too worn out with coronavirus news to read the stories as to why. Perhaps it's because they might have been able to ramp up testing. We've been having lots of big clusters in nursing homes and food processing plants.
I just summoned the courage to examine my newspaper's front page. From that I glean that the increased new cases reflects more testing, but also might reflect a resurgence. (Oh very helpful. Not.) Hospital admissions have increased, which ISTM is a reflection of resurgence rather than testing, (since AFAICT you get into the hospital because you have obvious and severe symptoms, not particularly because you've been tested.)
Hospital admissions have increased, which ISTM is a reflection of resurgence rather than testing, (since AFAICT you get into the hospital because you have obvious and severe symptoms, not particularly because you've been tested.)
Yes, I think this is right - hospital admissions and deaths are a fairly stable, unbiased (but laggy) indicator of the spread of the virus, whereas number of positive tests has more difficulties.
Even number of hospitalizations isn't a perfect indicator, though - older people are more likely to require hospitalization, so if you get a new cluster appearing in a new retirement home, your numbers can look worse than they "really" are. Having said that, one of the things that you really care about is number of hospitalizations, because that tells you whether you're going to break your healthcare system or not.
Hospital admissions have increased, which ISTM is a reflection of resurgence rather than testing, (since AFAICT you get into the hospital because you have obvious and severe symptoms, not particularly because you've been tested.)
Certainly in the UK, and AIUI in most of the US, only those who've developed severe symptoms are admitted to hospital - so hospital admission rates should be a good indicator of the number of people in the surrounding area are infected. Providing the criteria for admission don't change (which if they're never near the point of overloading the hospital shouldn't be the case) or for some reason the way the disease presents with more (or less) infected people getting severe symptoms - which, as @Leorning Cniht said, could happen if there's a big outbreak in a nursing home where the proportion of vulnerable people is higher than the general population. And, also as LC said, hospital admissions is a measure of the state of transmission 7-14 days before as that's typically the time scale for infection to lead to hospitalisation.
In other nations that relationship may not hold true, or be different, as there will be different criteria for hospital admission - so be careful with comparing number of hospitalisations between different nations (or even between States within the US) as there might be such factors in the different systems used. An extreme example would be Japan where (as I understand it from friends there) they needed to put through an emergency suspension of laws relating to infection with serious diseases - until very recently anyone with a diagnosis of a serious disease was required to be hospitalised for treatment, which would mean a positive coronavirus test would need hospitalisation even if there were no symptoms which would be unsustainable and resulted in practically no testing except for those with symptoms requiring hospitalisation. Before that emergency legislation that would give extraordinarily high figures for people hospitalised in Japan.
Looking at the NHS by age graphs, the young and old retired are roughly decaying at the same absolute numbers.
The older workers on the other hand (young workers and kids the data is to noisy) looks to have a worrying bump(?) in the tail, starting in the 10th (and presumably causually late April.
List of countries with at least 10,000 known COVID-19 cases.
United States - 1,666,828 (1,121,231 / 446,914 / 98,683)
Brazil - 349,113 (184,361 / 142,587 / 22,165)
Russia - 335,882 (224,558 / 107,936 / 3,388)
Spain - 282,370 (56,734 / 196,958 / 28,678) 12.7%
United Kingdom - 257,154 (220,135 / 344 / 36,675)
Italy - 229,327 (57,752 / 138,840 / 32,735) 19.1%
France - 182,469 (89,590 / 64,547 / 28,332)
Germany - 179,986 (11,720 / 159,900 / 8,366) 5.0%
Turkey - 155,686 (33,776 / 117,602 / 4,308) 3.5%
Iran - 133,521 (22,090 / 104,072 / 7,359) 6.6%
India - 131,868 (73,559 / 54,441 / 3,868)
Peru - 115,754 (64,466 / 47,915 / 3,373)
Canada - 83,621 (33,961 / 43,305 / 6,355)
China - 82,974 (79 / 78,261 / 4,634) 5.6%
Saudi Arabia - 70,161 (28,546 / 41,236 / 379)
Mexico - 65,856 (13,758 / 44,919 / 7,179) 13.8%
Chile - 65,393 (38,174 / 26,546 / 673)
Belgium - 56,810 (32,418 / 15,155 / 9,237)
Pakistan - 52,437 (34,683 / 16,653 / 1,101)
Netherlands - 45,064 (39,003 / 250 / 5,811)
Qatar - 42,213 (33,679 / 8,513 / 21)
Ecuador - 36,258 (29,605 / 3,557 / 3,096)
Belarus - 35,244 (21,522 / 13,528 / 194)
Sweden - 33,188 (24,225 / 4,971 / 3,992)
Bangladesh - 32,078 (25,140 / 6,486 / 452) 6.5%
Singapore - 31,068 (17,163 / 13,882 / 23)
Switzerland - 30,725 (820 / 28,000 / 1,905)
Portugal - 30,471 (21,464 / 7,705 / 1,302)
United Arab Emirates - 28,704 (13,965 / 14,495 / 244)
Ireland - 24,582 (1,918 / 21,060 / 1,604) 7.1%
Indonesia - 21,745 (15,145 / 5,249 / 1,351)
South Africa - 21,343 (10,832 / 10,104 / 407)
Poland - 20,931 (10,961 / 8,977 / 993)
Ukraine - 20,580 (13,046 / 6,929 / 605)
Kuwait - 20,464 (14,569 / 5,747 / 148)
Colombia - 20,177 (14,754 / 4,718 / 705)
Romania - 17,857 (5,494 / 11,187 / 1,176) 9.5%
Israel - 16,712 (2,343 / 14,090 / 279) 1.9%
Japan - 16,536 (2,484 / 13,244 / 808) 5.8%
Egypt - 16,513 (11,150 / 4,628 / 735)
Austria - 16,486 (810 / 15,037 / 639) 4.1%
Dominican Republic - 14,422 (6,110 / 7,854 / 458)
Philippines - 13,777 (9,737 / 3,177 / 863)
Argentina - 11,353 (7,378 / 3,530 / 445)
Denmark - 11,289 (892 / 9,836 / 561) 5.4%
South Korea - 11,190 (711 / 10,213 / 266) 2.5%
Serbia - 11,092 (5,155 / 5,699 / 238)
Panama - 10,577 (3,999 / 6,279 / 299)
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries twenty-nine of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
No countries have joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
List of countries with at least 10,000 known COVID-19 cases.
United States - 1,686,436 (1,135,434 / 451,702 / 99,300)
Brazil - 365,213 (192,556 / 149,911 / 22,746)
Russia - 344,481 (227,641 / 113,299 / 3,541)
Spain - 282,852 (57,142 / 196,958 / 28,752) 12.7%
United Kingdom - 259,559 (222,422 / 344 / 36,793)
Italy - 229,858 (56,594 / 140,479 / 32,785) 18.9%
France - 182,584 (89,600 / 64,617 / 28,367)
Germany - 180,328 (11,657 / 160,300 / 8,371) 5.0%
Turkey - 156,827 (33,793 / 118,694 / 4,340) 3.5%
India - 138,845 (77,100 / 57,721 / 4,024)
Iran - 135,701 (22,483 / 105,801 / 7,417) 6.6%
Peru - 119,959 (66,708 / 49,795 / 3,456)
Canada - 84,699 (34,290 / 43,985 / 6,424)
China - 82,985 (83 / 78,268 / 4,634) 5.6%
Saudi Arabia - 72,560 (28,650 / 43,520 / 390)
Chile - 69,102 (40,236 / 28,148 / 718)
Mexico - 68,620 (13,802 / 47,424 / 7,394) 13.5%
Belgium - 57,092 (32,540 / 15,272 / 9,280)
Pakistan - 54,601 (36,270 / 17,198 / 1,133)
Netherlands - 45,236 (39,164 / 250 / 5,822)
Qatar - 43,714 (34,521 / 9,170 / 23)
Ecuador - 36,756 (30,088 / 3,560 / 3,108)
Belarus - 36,198 (21,844 / 14,155 / 199)
Bangladesh - 33,610 (26,229 / 6,901 / 480)
Sweden - 33,459 (24,490 / 4,971 / 3,998)
Singapore - 31,616 (16,717 / 14,876 / 23)
Switzerland - 30,736 (730 / 28,100 / 1,906) 6.4%
Portugal - 30,623 (11,758 / 17,549 / 1,316)
United Arab Emirates - 29,485 (14,184 / 15,056 / 245)
Ireland - 24,639 (1,971 / 21,060 / 1,608) 7.1%
South Africa - 22,583 (11,054 / 11,100 / 429)
Indonesia - 22,271 (15,497 / 5,402 / 1,372)
Poland - 21,326 (11,136 / 9,194 / 996)
Kuwait - 21,302 (15,029 / 6,117 / 156)
Colombia - 21,175 (15,432 / 5,016 / 727)
Ukraine - 20,986 (13,261 / 7,108 / 617)
Romania - 18,070 (5,486 / 11,399 / 1,185) 9.4%
Egypt - 17,265 (11,694 / 4,807 / 764)
Israel - 16,717 (2,285 / 14,153 / 279) 1.9%
Japan - 16,550 (2,317 / 13,413 / 820) 5.8%
Austria - 16,503 (800 / 15,063 / 640) 4.1%
Dominican Republic - 14,801 (6,210 / 8,133 / 458)
Philippines - 14,035 (9,918 / 3,249 / 868)
Argentina - 12,076 (7,892 / 3,732 / 452)
Denmark - 11,360 (898 / 9,900 / 562) 5.4%
South Korea - 11,206 (713 / 10,226 / 267) 2.5%
Serbia - 11,159 (5,064 / 5,857 / 238)
Panama - 10,926 (4,341 / 6,279 / 306)
Afghanistan - 10,582 (9,289 / 1,075 / 218)
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries thirty of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and India.
Afghanistan has joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
Attempts to remember Dominic Cummings is after a child of god, and his uncle died, his wife was sick, he was sick and then his 4 year old child ended up in hospital. (Finds some residual empathy under a pile of socks in the corner.)
(Whispers: he’s still an irresponsible dick head though.)
As with Johnson's illness, there are two parallel truths here.
Cummings is a devious, manipulative, feckless liar.
Dominic is a husband and father who's wife and son became unwell.
One does not cancel out the other.
There is no rational justification for him keeping his job. If we get a second peak and compliance with various measures is poor because he (and more importantly, the cabinet's support of him) has completely undermined the government's Public Health measures then he will be partly culpable for thousands of deaths.
As it happens, I worked there when I was a House Officer. It's a pretty small hospital really but this does imply a massive upward trend in local numbers. If this is an anomaly, that's one thing; if it's the first gusts of the on-coming storm, that's definitely another.
I suppose it's almost impossible to say when the second wave will occur, but it's scary to think that we might still be under lockdown (or under lockdown again) at Christmas...
Comments
It used to mean that, but it's OK to take on another meaning.
Better safe than sorry!
All of our church in-person events this summer are cancelled. Most scouting activities are cancelled, some might still go ahead with Covid modifications. Girl Scouts seems to be slightly more conservative; BSA is a little more gung-ho about trying to run some things. This could be because BSA is more outdoorsy; it could also be political (all the conservatives left GSUSA because it supports womens' rights - they're mostly in American Heritage Girls now. BSA still has most of its conservatives, although a few walked over the introduction of troops for girls.) It's possible that my kids' BSA troop will camp as a troop later in the summer, but they're not attending any larger gatherings.
Church preschool is trying to understand how to open in the fall - the state regulator is being pretty efficient about giving instructions, and they're pretty sensible, so we'll just follow them.
(as supposed to cancelling the pre-arranged stuff and being very careful with the stuff that they do do)
Why couldn’t this virus have started in August, so that we’d have been entering lockdown in October when the nights are getting longer, the days are getting colder, and there’s generally a lot less reason to go outside anyway? We’re basically going to go straight from winter to winter with just this suspended animation in the middle. And I sodding hate winter.
Umm, that is when the second wave is expected to begin (Aug 2020). Hold on to your seat.
The next few days look critical for the States which have gambled the most.
Fuck no. I would have gone even more nuts stuck at home with a 4 year old if we couldn't even go outside (winter here means force 8 or above on the Beaufort scale, laced with sand, rain and/or hail).
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries twenty-nine of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
Panama has joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
And it might not even generate the economic recovery the reopening advocates hope for.
The article isn't that long, but the basic gist is that while people enjoy going to shops or eating out, they don't enjoy those things enough to risk a non-trivial chance of slowly choking to death surrounded by strangers.
In the UK, we're currently making sure people have money to spend through the furlough scheme and similar for self-employed (imperfect though that is). If that stops when the government says a business can fully restart (ie: that the government won't keep covering wages of people they think can work) then those businesses are going to struggle until their customers go back to buying their products and services. If they go under or need to lay people off then that's going to reduce the customer base further, which is going to both suppress the "getting the economy going again" aim and cost the government through increasing unemployment payments. How do we get out of the economic downturn? I think (though I'm no expert) that you need to start with keeping the lockdown in place until the "is it safe?" question has largely evaporated so that people still have money to spend when they're able to spend it. Then you probably need to be aggressively taking people on in new roles, especially those who are already unemployed or very likely to be unemployed once the furlough scheme ends, to help keep the virus under control - in many small local offices to help trace contacts for new infections, testing stations and laboratories (these will all need lots of clerical support, as well as the specialist roles); you can be doing this while the lockdown is in place, many of those jobs need to be filled before lifting lockdown anyway.
This seems similar to the period before the lockdown, when in the UK people anticipated it. The schools were emptying, ditto shops, football closed down, not because Boris decreed it. In other words, people don't simply obey the govt, they have their own minds.
Yes and no. Any measure to loosen the lockdown will increase R0, and anything that pushes R0 above 1 will cause exponential growth. That reopening schools will be the event to push it above 1 seems to me to be Ben Kentish's view - he may be correct, but it is [not in source given].
The entire document is available online. I think the key is the chart on page 13, which does support the idea that they are signalling against opening schools, even with 95% adherence to all the other social distancing measures, the majority of the scenarios modeled have Rt going above 1.
That assumes equal infectivity of children compared with adults. My read of it is that they're not close to having enough information to offer reliable advice, which makes the government's chosen course of action seem risky and cavalier.
Yes, I guess in the absence of having a more accurate figure for the infectiousness of children the precautionary principle has them use a higher figure. Thing is the government has staked itself to the June 1st to the point of running into a version of the sunk cost fallacy.
I thought it was just that they were enjoying picking a fight with the teachers' unions.
They probably did, but now/then it turned into another mini culture war and here we are.
Excellent. Thanks for posting the link. I will continue to follow. I note it seems about a day behind the Coronavirus counter, though
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries twenty-nine of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
Argentina has joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
For the time being, new cases and deaths are definitely declining in Europe The USA situation looks really knife edged.
Can he possibly be mistaken?
(Check out Copeland on YouTube - there are several videos, but I can't bear to look at his demonic features again...
That sounds painful for everyone involved.
Yes, I think this is right - hospital admissions and deaths are a fairly stable, unbiased (but laggy) indicator of the spread of the virus, whereas number of positive tests has more difficulties.
Even number of hospitalizations isn't a perfect indicator, though - older people are more likely to require hospitalization, so if you get a new cluster appearing in a new retirement home, your numbers can look worse than they "really" are. Having said that, one of the things that you really care about is number of hospitalizations, because that tells you whether you're going to break your healthcare system or not.
In other nations that relationship may not hold true, or be different, as there will be different criteria for hospital admission - so be careful with comparing number of hospitalisations between different nations (or even between States within the US) as there might be such factors in the different systems used. An extreme example would be Japan where (as I understand it from friends there) they needed to put through an emergency suspension of laws relating to infection with serious diseases - until very recently anyone with a diagnosis of a serious disease was required to be hospitalised for treatment, which would mean a positive coronavirus test would need hospitalisation even if there were no symptoms which would be unsustainable and resulted in practically no testing except for those with symptoms requiring hospitalisation. Before that emergency legislation that would give extraordinarily high figures for people hospitalised in Japan.
The older workers on the other hand (young workers and kids the data is to noisy) looks to have a worrying bump(?) in the tail, starting in the 10th (and presumably causually late April.
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries twenty-nine of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and Iran.
No countries have joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
The listings are in the format:
X. Country - [# of known cases] ([active] / [recovered] / [dead]) [%fatality rate]
Fatality rates are only listed for countries where the number of resolved cases (recovered + dead) exceeds the number of known active cases by a ratio of at least 2:1.
Italics indicate authoritarian countries whose official statistics are suspect. Other country's statistics are suspect if their testing regimes are substandard.
If American states were treated as individual countries thirty of them would be on that list. New York would be ranked at #2, between "everywhere in the U.S. except New York" (#1) and Spain (#3). New Jersey would be between Turkey and India.
Afghanistan has joined the 10,000 case club since the last compilation.
(Whispers: he’s still an irresponsible dick head though.)
You don’t test your eyesight by going for a car drive. 🙄
Cummings is a devious, manipulative, feckless liar.
Dominic is a husband and father who's wife and son became unwell.
One does not cancel out the other.
There is no rational justification for him keeping his job. If we get a second peak and compliance with various measures is poor because he (and more importantly, the cabinet's support of him) has completely undermined the government's Public Health measures then he will be partly culpable for thousands of deaths.
Speaking of which, this is really concerning:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-52796589
As it happens, I worked there when I was a House Officer. It's a pretty small hospital really but this does imply a massive upward trend in local numbers. If this is an anomaly, that's one thing; if it's the first gusts of the on-coming storm, that's definitely another.
AFZ