Ukrainian Counter offensive--will they be able to take Crimea?

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  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    e) Wanna bet? I don't see any French troops in Ukraine. And nobody else will be joining them.

    I know this is a slight aside and mostly beside the point but how much do you wanna bet there aren't French troops in Ukraine right now?

    I know there are members of the British armed forces there.

    AFZ

    I know there are AFZ, as I do Brits. But they are not there officially firing directly at Russians and if they get hit by Russians even deliberately, that's not casus belli.

    Indeed.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    e) Wanna bet? I don't see any French troops in Ukraine. And nobody else will be joining them.

    I know this is a slight aside and mostly beside the point but how much do you wanna bet there aren't French troops in Ukraine right now?

    I know there are members of the British armed forces there.

    AFZ

    I know there are AFZ, as I do Brits. But they are not there officially firing directly at Russians and if they get hit by Russians even deliberately, that's not casus belli.

    Indeed.

    We keep converging AFZ. This will not do,
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Euro-NATO has no trouble undermining itself.

    During the Cold War, NATO seemed solid. Now, not so much. I think that's almost entirely down to Trump. It's true that we in Europe could do a lot more towards our own defence. But it is unsurprising that we find it a nasty shock to be required to do so and that it is difficult to make the adjustment.

    Yeah, after making ourselves dependent on Russian carbon. We couldn't have seen Putin coming could we? Since 2014. At least. Trump is irrelevant. We've been stupid, lazy, complacent. I think we've got nastier shocks to come. France going full on fascist for a start.

    Being dependent on Russian gas is indeed a dumb move. Not directly undermining of the Atlantic alliance though.

    Going soft on a terrorist state and not paying your dues to the alliance have gone together.
  • HarryCHHarryCH Shipmate
    "Casus belli" tends to be whatever some government decides it is.
  • According to The Times, Trump is predicting a 'bloodbath' in the US if he isn't re-elected. Looks like there could be an even bigger one in Europe if he is.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    That's entirely up to Europe.
  • According to The Times, Trump is predicting a 'bloodbath' in the US if he isn't re-elected. Looks like there could be an even bigger one in Europe if he is.

    Does even Trump know what he meant by that?
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Ever hear of plausible deny ability, Martin? Just because France says there are no troops in Ukraine doesn't mean there are no French troops there.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    We've already addressed that. None are in combat roles, killing Russians.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    So, how many F16s will be available in three, four months time?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    6
  • CaissaCaissa Shipmate
    Is it possible Ukraine is involved in this action? https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68642036?src_origin=BBCS_BBC
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2024
    BBC:
    It is too early to know who was responsible for this attack.

    But it is notable that two weeks ago, the US issued an unusual warning to its citizens in Russia. It was "monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts”.

    Seems an unlikely target for the Ukrainian government - no strategic or tactical value.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    No way. Caucasian. SE. Chechen. Inrgush.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Inrush. ... bloody predictive text. Inrush.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Stone me! Ingush!
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    ISIS-K has claimed responsibility for the attack in Moscow. Ukraine as denied any involvement, saying they do not carry out terrorist attacks. They claim Russia is an oppressor of Muslims.

  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Aye,
    Some analysts and authorities in Europe, however, have for months now been speculating about the growing ambitions of the IS group's Afghanistan-focused Khorasan province branch (IS-K or ISIS-K), which is believed to have Russian-speaking Central Asians in its ranks.
    BBC

    Not a difficult journey via Iran to Ashgabat airport in Turkmenistan. As for getting AKs in Russia... So, my apologies to the SE Caucasus. Or N come to that.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited March 2024
    Nor to Tashkent airport in Uzbekistan via Tajikistan, 'Unconfirmed reports have mentioned nationals from Tajikistan... passports from the country had been found in the car.' Auntie.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    The thought is ISIS-K will soon be attacking bigger targets in Europe and the USA within six months. We all need to be vigilant.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    The thought is ISIS-K will soon be attacking bigger targets in Europe and the USA within six months. We all need to be vigilant.

    Rather than create social justice, yes.
  • North East QuineNorth East Quine Purgatory Host
    @Martin54 I don't follow your line of thinking. Are you saying that if we created social justice in America and Europe, then there would be no risk of attack by ISIS-K? Because social justice in America and Europe is important to ISIS-K?

    Or are you suggesting that the PTB in America and Europe will use "being vigilant against ISIS-K" as a dead-cat issue to divert attention away from social justice?

    Or what? What do you mean by Rather than create social justice, yes ?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    We need to create universal social justice, period. We can't because of democracy of course. So we need to be vigilant.

    Putin will use this atrocity by oppressed Muslims to carry out an outrage against Ukraine.
  • North East QuineNorth East Quine Purgatory Host
    I still don't understand why your response to Gramps specific comment was Rather than create social justice, yes ?

    I also don't understand your follow up that we can't create universal social democracy because of democracy of course. Why does democracy preclude social justice?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    It will never vote for it. As it will never be in any manifesto. In being more vigilant, increasing our security, sealing our unsealable borders we do nothing about the cause. Social injustice.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    So we should forgo democracy to achieve social justice?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Social justice is real democracy.
  • Worthy of another thread.
    Meanwhile I have a question:
    Apparently the US warned Americans in Russia about the risk of a terrorist attack.
    Who are those Americans in Russia? Diplomats presumably as surely there can't be any Westerners there as tourists or carrying on business?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    As Russia is spinning this in to a casus belli against Ukraine (retrospective and for escalation), apart for domestic consumption, it raises the question of how they can escalate the war. Their conventional missiles are having some effect on energy infrastructure, again, but nothing sustainable or game changing. What's left?
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    Tactical or strategic nuclear, which would destroy their objective.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    Worthy of another thread.
    Meanwhile I have a question:
    Apparently the US warned Americans in Russia about the risk of a terrorist attack.
    Who are those Americans in Russia? Diplomats presumably as surely there can't be any Westerners there as tourists or carrying on business?

    There probably aren't more than 100K American expats in Russia. Some live there because of business. Some are former Russians who became American but returned to the old country after they retired. Some are temporary, like government workers and their families, travel has been restricted, but it is still happening.

    I would say whenever an American embassy anywhere in the world starts picking up intelligence of an imminent threat, they have a duty to warn Americans of the possibility of danger.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited March 2024
    Eirenist wrote: »
    Tactical or strategic nuclear, which would destroy their objective.

    I don't see how. But they can't until the final Trump.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    A radiioactive Ukraine?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Eirenist wrote: »
    A radiioactive Ukraine?

    Why would that occur? From either a small battlefield neutron bomb or twenty or a 700 kt hydrogen bomb at 15,000 ft over Kyiv? Not much more than they've had before surely?
  • What would NATO do then?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Up until January it should do what it says it would.
  • Has NATO revealed its hand?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    Has NATO revealed its hand?

    Yes. Eighteen months ago.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    Has NATO revealed its hand?

    Yes. Eighteen months ago.

    Thanks. I do remember now. You think a Trump presidency could (or would) send that military doctrine back to the drawing board?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    Has NATO revealed its hand?

    Yes. Eighteen months ago.

    Thanks. I do remember now. You think a Trump presidency could (or would) send that military doctrine back to the drawing board?

    No question for me. There's no intellect and no courage there.
  • I thought Trump wants to MAGA?!
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    I thought Trump wants to MAGA?!

    As I said... Not by doing anything meaningful. No morality either.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Merry Vole wrote: »
    I thought Trump wants to MAGA?!
    I thought he wants to Make Trump Rich Again, and is trying to con the people of America into thinking that's the same as MAGA.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    I think we can forget the A in MTRA.
  • But going back to the battlefield nukes question Martin54 is assuming that
    a) a Trump presidency would not want to 'teach Russia a lesson' and
    b) there aren't smart people in NATO and the Pentagon who could get round the problems of a difficult president. You know like in 'Yes Minister '. Or maybe that only works in Whitehall.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    I don't think Trump wants to teach Russia a lesson. He likes, admires Putin. Trump wants to learn a lesson from Russia! He thinks Putin is making Russia great again (to coin a phrase) - that he is "Russia Trump".
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    I don't think Trump wants to teach Russia a lesson. He likes, admires Putin. Trump wants to learn a lesson from Russia! He thinks Putin is making Russia great again (to coin a phrase) - that he is "Russia Trump".

    Fascists of the world unite. This is 1984, ‘[Endless] War Is Peace. Freedom Is Slavery. Ignorance Is Strength’, with fascism.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    So, what will a re-absorbed Ukraine Europe feel like?
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    Pretty bad, but especially bad if you are Latvian, for example. But even worse if you are Ukrainian, I imagine.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    How about if you're Polish, or British? And you don't think Trump will stand by Latvia either? We should all feel ashamed for sure.
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