Scottish government fiasco

Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
OK, so I'm not really able to put into words my thoughts on the stupidity of our First Minister (I'm with you there @Louise) the comments on another thread should be on their own thread rather than distract from the serious issue of the stupidity of the UK government wanting to transport asylum seekers to Rwanda. Even if I started the tangent, here are the posts from that tangent.
Dafyd wrote: »
The attempt to look well 'ard and appease the lunatic fringes of political parties, but actually coming across as foolish, seems to be contagious.
Is that anything to do with the SNP deciding it can work as a minority government?
Dafyd wrote: »
The attempt to look well 'ard and appease the lunatic fringes of political parties, but actually coming across as foolish, seems to be contagious.
Is that anything to do with the SNP deciding it can work as a minority government?
You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment.
Dafyd wrote: »
The attempt to look well 'ard and appease the lunatic fringes of political parties, but actually coming across as foolish, seems to be contagious.
Is that anything to do with the SNP deciding it can work as a minority government?

Seems to be. Trying to appease bigoted wankpuffins like Kate Forbes and Ash Reagan is now first place ahead of action on climate change.
Louise wrote: »
Dafyd wrote: »
The attempt to look well 'ard and appease the lunatic fringes of political parties, but actually coming across as foolish, seems to be contagious.
Is that anything to do with the SNP deciding it can work as a minority government?

Seems to be. Trying to appease bigoted wankpuffins like Kate Forbes and Ash Reagan is now first place ahead of action on climate change.

I'm glad you said that because my ability to find anything to say that wouldn't fall foul of Ship standards was severely compromised. What a mess. He really threw the pin and kept the grenade. I can't see how he survives this.
I assume he was banking on the Greens not being willing to back the no confidence motion. It remains to be seen whether the Greens made the right choice.

Comments

  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    I think our MSPs made the only choice that was left to them.
  • betjemaniacbetjemaniac Shipmate
    edited April 2024
    partly why I deleted my comment on the other thread. I know it's bad form to link to other blogs/forums on here, but I will say that even when you've applied your bias filter the maths over on Wings Over Scotland is generally sound and they've had some good commentary on it from that pov. Although obviously they're very much on a particular side of both the independence and trans debates (amongst other things). I'm aware that discussion of the latter is for Epiphanies, but just giving due warning in case anyone feels minded to look.

    Like I say, their maths and general strategic take* is sound IMO.

    *Ie you/I/the garden gate don't need to agree with any/all/some of their aims, but it's difficult not to agree with their take on what's going on.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    A minority government is possible if you have sensible policies. Can the SNP manage that ?
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    edited April 2024
    W*ngs ov*r Scotland is incredibly litigious which limits saying what I think of that site and why I would never use it.

    I cannot put into words what I think of this man and what he does and it's just as well I don't because he sues - as he did to Kezia Dugdale for telling the truth about him (ex Scottish Labour leader - she won - but the Ship and I don't have that kind of money)

    There are lots of experts who follow Scottish politics. There's no need to go to sites like this. Back in the days when I was stupid enough to read him (and he hadn't fully decloaked) even the so-called analysis often turned out to be wrong.

    I don't hold any brief for the FM on this who I think has done something stupid. I'm just saying that I wouldn't go to that site even if I thought it agreed with me.
  • betjemaniacbetjemaniac Shipmate
    edited April 2024
    Louise wrote: »
    Back in the days when I was stupid enough to read him

    point taken - but that's me told isn't it?

  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    edited April 2024
    Sorry betjemaniac! I'm so ashamed of myself and that is really about me. Please don't take it as a reflection on you. It's probably something you've just come across.
  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    Please no further comment on the website betjemaniac and Louise have mentioned.

    Back to the strategic and tactical nous of the Scottish National Party.

    Dafyd Hell Host
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Now there's talk of Yousaf resigning before the no-confidence votes. Though, no indication I've seen of where this talk has originated, I'm assuming the usual "well informed sources".
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    The BBC has been confident enough to report this and there's a big announcement scheduled for later today, so I'd be surprised if they were wrong on this.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    If they were wrong first thing this morning, the discussion has moved on and it's going to be very difficult for him not to resign now. The big tell was that there wasn't an immediate stream of senior SNP MSPs/MPs on the TV and radio saying it's not true. But, there's also not been a stream of senior SNP MSPs on the TV over the last few days supporting Yousaf's decision to dump the SGP - and Blackford yesterday morning was on apologising for it - which suggests that virtually all his senior colleagues thought it was a mistake, at least in it's abruptness.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited April 2024
    There is one big bonus about all the fuss this morning. It's shoved Salmond's smug face off our screens, if Yousaf resigns he can no longer prance around looking like the cat that got the cream and spout his nonsense about protecting women (yeah, tell that to the women whose experience of his "protection" lead them to complain and a trial on 14 charges - even though he was found not guilty or not proven, he still admitted to being "touchy feely" which is still inappropriate behaviour in my book).
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    He's gone. Leadership contest on.
  • From the Guardian's live blog:

    He thanks journalists for coming and says last week he was here to announce the ending of the Bute House agreement, the power-sharing deal with the SNP. He says he still thought that was the right decision, for his party and for the country.

    He says he hoped to continue working with the Scottish Greens in a more informal.(sic)

    But he under-estimated how much hurt that decision caused, he says.

    He says, while a route to winning the no confidence motion was possible, he was not willing to compromise his principles.
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    I was listening on BBC 5 live. It was a good speech. He's a nice guy with his heart in the right place but the way he handled this was a terrible, clumsy and irretrievable political mistake on his part.
  • At least he's had the courage to admit that he underestimated the effect of his decision.

  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    I fear for the country if the press start pushing Kate Forbes again. We barely escaped last time but they're emboldened since Cass. :(
  • So why did Yousaf crash the agreement with Greens? Was he being clumsy, or was he trying to water down the green agenda? Or both.
  • HelenEvaHelenEva Shipmate
    It all seems rather complex but as I understand it there's now a two stage process whereby the SNP elects a new leader and then the Scottish Parliament decides whether to accept them as First Minister. The BBC has done a flow chart in this article which does my head in (but not as much as doing hyperlinks on here which I just CANNOT DO, so link here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68919996) and it all looks as clear as mud.
    In fact it looks like there's a scenario where the SNP elects a leader, the Scottish Parliament decide they don't like them and the process repeats ad infinitum but I presume that can't actually happen??
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    In principle there is nothing that says the leader of the SNP has to resign just because they can't form a government that can withstand a VONC. If the newly elected leader can't put that together there would ultimately be an election.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    HelenEva wrote: »
    It all seems rather complex but as I understand it there's now a two stage process whereby the SNP elects a new leader and then the Scottish Parliament decides whether to accept them as First Minister. The BBC has done a flow chart in this article which does my head in (but not as much as doing hyperlinks on here which I just CANNOT DO, so link here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68919996) and it all looks as clear as mud.
    In fact it looks like there's a scenario where the SNP elects a leader, the Scottish Parliament decide they don't like them and the process repeats ad infinitum but I presume that can't actually happen??
    Yes, there's a two stage process.

    The first stage involves the SNP selecting a party leader, which follows their own internal processes - a nomination stage where each candidate needs to gain the signatures of at least 100 members (from at least 20 different branches) for them to be a candidate. There'll then be a period of campaigning to secure the majority of votes of SNP members. The actual election within the SNP will use an STV voting system.

    When the SNP have a new leader, Yousaf will step down and the newly elected person will become leader of the SNP. At that point, the Parliamentary process kicks in - a date is set for the Parliamentary election, anyone who wants to be First Minister and can get two other MSPs to propose and second that puts their name forward (in practice that will be no more than one MSP from each party, the new SNP leader will be one of those, I expect that the Conservatives will nominate Douglas Ross and Labour Anas Sarwar, I don't expect there to be a Green or LibDem candidate or for Regan to get two MSPs to support her). If there's only one candidate (which won't happen) the vote is simply to approve them - do more MSPs vote for than against? If there's more than one candidate then there's a series of votes with candidate who gets the least number of MSP votes each round eliminated, until one candidate gets more than 50% of the votes.

    Theoretically, if no other party puts forward a candidate and the new SNP leader gets the SNP 63 votes and every other MSP votes against them then a government can't be formed and a general election will be triggered. That won't happen because a) I can't imagine Douglas Ross turning down the opportunity to stand for the position of FM, and if he does then Anas Sarwar will be compelled to follow suite, and b) members of parties other than the SNP will either vote for the new leader or abstain, both options will mean the new SNP leader will get a majority. So we've dodged having a Scottish General Election in the same year as a UK GE, and a two year Parliament before we go to the polls again.
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    Now Humza has resigned, the Greens have said they won't back either of the Votes of no confidence, so we're just going to get an SNP leadership election and it sounds like John Swinney is being asked to run and being backed by people who matter like Stephen Flynn, the Westminster leader. He's an elder statesman who has been party leader before, for those who don't know him.
  • HelenEvaHelenEva Shipmate
    Thank you @Alan Cresswell - that's much clearer than the BBC's effort!
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    The other point to remember is that Scotland has fixed election dates. There will be a Scottish Parliament election on 7th May 2026. Even if something very very strange happens and Parliament fails to agree on a new First Minister and there's an election this year, that 2026 election will happen as scheduled.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    OK, I didn't see that coming. Not the overall result of the Labour VONC being defeated by a significant margin, that was always going to happen as SNP+SGP would always win that vote.

    What I didn't see coming was that after all the talk by Salmond about the Greens breaking a pro-independence bloc by planning to vote with Unionists in the (subsequently withdrawn) VONC in Yousaf, I just didn't see Regan actually voting with the Unionists against the whole Scottish Government. So much for independence above all else, that's Alba lost a big chunk of a small voter base.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Transphobia uber alles, I can only assume.
  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    edited May 2024
    If Alba wants more votes it's only really going to get them off one of the other independence parties and at this stage it's unlikely to get them off the Greens. Therefore, the SNP are the main enemy.

    Brian: We mustn't fight each other. Surely we should be united against the common enemy!
    Everyone: The Judean People's Front?
  • So Forbes isn't going to stand. Will that mean a coronation for Swinney? And would that be a good thing or not?
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    I can't see anyone else running against Swinney. So, almost certainly a coronation.

    It will be good in that it gets the new FM in place very quickly, reducing disruption to Parliamentary business before the summer recess. It's good that it won't be a radical change in direction, so we've still got the minority government the people voted for in 2021 rather than one that will be veering off in radically different directions. So, basically, stability.

    Swinney has said he'll lead the SNP through the 2026 election, and I'm going to assume beyond that unless 2026 is a total disaster and the SNP are not in government (then the usual response of the leader resigning and a new leadership contest will follow). Given his previous attempts to step back from front line politics I suppose there's going to be questions of whether he also leads the SNP through 2031 or not, but that's a long time in the future (especially in politics).
  • From this side of the Border, it seems as though common-sense is being exercised - something not often done by what passes for *government* down here.

    Will Mr Swinney seek to repair relations with the Scottish Greens?
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    He has little choice but to keep the Scottish Greens reasonably friendly, it's very unlikely he'll get budgets through without those votes. But, I'd be very surprised if he tried to reinstate the Bute House Agreement and bring Lorna and Patrick back into government - he doesn't really need to and it would open up divisions within the SNP he's going to prefer not to have to worry about, and it's very unlikely the Greens would be that interested for what could be gained with only 2y left in this Parliament.
  • Well, well - fair comment, and, as I said, it sounds as though pragmatism and common-sense will take Mr Swinney and Scotland into the next couple of years, at least.

    O! that we could have such things here in Benighted Brexitannia!
  • The new Welsh FM has been in trouble ever since he's been elected. https://tinyurl.com/yc798ppc
  • O dear.

    World-Beating English Wastemonster Sleaze™ moving to Wales? I very much hope not - we want to keep our W-BEWS to ourselves, thank you. It's ours, I tell you, and no-one else deserves it as much as we do...
    :tongue:

    The avuncular Mark Drakeford (who always reminded me of the kindly Headmaster I had at Grammer Skool) will be much missed, perhaps, although he (being human) didn't get everything right...

  • He grew noticeably tired towards the end of his tenure, not aided of course by the death of his wife. IMHO he did a good job during Covid, not helped by the incumbent of SW1 2AA.

    As far as our present FM is concerned, my feeling is that the actual donation was correctly declared and processed, however there are questions about the righteousness of its source (an accusation which could never of course be made about any other political donations). I think part of the problem is that the Senedd Labour members overwhelmingly preferred his rival, but not the rank-and-file party members.
  • Yes, I do appreciate that Mr Drakeford grew tired, and one can only hope and pray that he has a rewarding and active retirement. A very likeable bloke - rare among Polly Titians...

    One can also only hope and pray that Wales, like Scotland, sorts out its problems soon, and that the devolved countries continue to show England how (mostly) grown-up governments can (most of the time) operate.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    I've never found Swinney particularly impressive (he briefly visited my place of work a few years ago) but he does have the merit of not being a galloping bigot.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    To add interest to the situation, I'm seeing reports in The National (sorry if that's not available to non-subscribers) that an SNP activist (who last year failed to get his motion on simply declaring Scotland independent passed and also lost his campaign to be SNP President) planning to put his hat in the ring of SNP party leader. Which would then require someone else to be FM, as he's not an MSP that's not an option for him.

    I can't imagine him getting anywhere near the number of votes as Swinney, but it will force a discussion in the SNP on routes to independence (though, presumably with McCormick presenting the same view as the party rejected at conference last year) and delay the change over of FM.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Or, maybe just a bit of flamboyant publicity seeking, a quite effective way to give his views an airing (with latest news I've just seen).
  • Well, after that kerfuffle, I see that Mr Swinney is now leader of the SNP, and will, presumably, be First Minister in a day or two.

    A safe pair of hands?

    Predictably, the Scottish tories (poor little loves - still reeling after their English counterparts' thrashing last week) are unhappy.
  • Kate Forbes now Deputy First Minister
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    edited May 2024
    Well there’s the end of civic nationalism in the SNP. If the party is willing to look the other way at minorities being persecuted and to promote the people who would do it to get Indy, then that’s the other sort of nationalism. I guess I’ll be voting Green from now on.
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