As an aside, Ortho-sphere social media seems to be carrying stories that Zelensky is 'banning' not only the Orthodox Church in the Ukraine that remains within Moscow's jurisdiction, but apparently also the 'schismatic' (as many see it) non-Moscow related one.
Lots of gripes about 'godless' leadership and so on. Zelensky out to outlaw Christianity etc etc etc. One poster seemed to think it could lead to a healing of the grievous schism in some way.
I don't get involved in any of this so have no idea what's going on.
Have any Shipmates heard anything about this or can shed some light on what's happening?
Anything like this requires very careful examination of the sources of the various posts. There is quite a lot of disinformation going around in relation to Ukraine.
Yes, indeed. The Orthodox are very divided about the whole thing of course. Orthodoxy online is a can of worms at the best of times. It's even worse at a time like this.
The ban targets the ROC, but is understood as including the bit of the church that (claimed to have) separated from Moscow after the war began. It does not include the autocephalous Ukrainian church.
The ban targets the ROC, but is understood as including the bit of the church that (claimed to have) separated from Moscow after the war began. It does not include the autocephalous Ukrainian church.
Ok. Thanks for the clarification. I get mixed up with some of the acronyms and it's not always easy on the Ortho-net to tell which group is which or who is falling out with who and why.
Early on, during my initial interest in Orthodoxy, I was told that I'd not seen a spat until I'd seen an Orthodox spat.
Incidentally, I've been checking with people who know more about the 'official' and 'unofficial' Orthodox groups in the Ukraine and what @Arethosemyfeet says is pretty much what's happening.
It should be remembered that the Russian Orthodox Church takes the position that Russian soldiers who die attacking Ukraine will have their sins forgiven, kind of like Catholic doctrine regarding the Crusades. You can understand why the Ukrainian government would be wary of such an organization, and any organization that maintains close ties to it like the Ukrainian Orthodox Church - Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP).
And yes, it can get confusing for outsiders to distinguish between the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. (Obligatory Life of Brian clip)
For the longest time @Martin54 had been asking where are the F16s and when will they see combat. Well, they are being used now to shoot down incoming missiles and doing a pretty good job of it.
For the longest time @Martin54 had been asking where are the F16s and when will they see combat. Well, they are being used now to shoot down incoming missiles and doing a pretty good job of it.
No mention here. Or here. I saw in passing somewhere that they had shot down a small fraction.
What does that claim? If anything about shooting down incoming missiles?
It says:
Ukraine used Western-supplied F-16s to shoot down Russian missiles this week in two waves of attacks targeting residential areas and energy infrastructure, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
It even has a handy link to a DefenseNews article (included above) in case you wanted more details. It must be difficult having a web browser that only allows you to access Ship of Fools.
There are a relatively small number of F16s in Ukraine (there may be more to come), and it would be expecting more than is reasonable to think they'll be able to shoot down every drone and missile, or even a large proportion of them. But, every missile shot down is one less that gets through to kill and maim.
The Russian military command may have redeployed limited elements intended to reinforce Russia's priority offensive operation in the Pokrovsk direction to defend against the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast — suggesting that operational pressures from the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast are impacting Russian operations in every sector throughout the theater.
I don't buy it. Pokrovsk could fall in days. 4km to go. Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to throw away in house to house, or rather cellar to cellar fighting. Let alone pinch off that salient. We'll see what the F16s can achieve. Not much. That's Donetsk gone, all the way to the Dnipro by the rasputitsa. Time for a scorched earth retreat. Especially the water works.
BBC report that Russian mercenary forces in Africa are being recalled to be redeployed to deal with the Kursk incursion, rather than transferring forces from Donetsk.
I'd have thought that Ukraine could go as far as it possibly can inside Russia. Take Kursk. Or feint that and charge down to Belgorod and the Kharkiv front from behind?
I saw a rather horrifying video last night of a new Ukrainian drone that flies over trenches so it can pour burning thermite on Russian soldiers. Hell of a way to die.
I saw a rather horrifying video last night of a new Ukrainian drone that flies over trenches so it can pour burning thermite on Russian soldiers. Hell of a way to die.
And, er, my God! What's Mr. P., Vladimir Vladimirovich, going to do to the UK when the first Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG or Taurus slams in to a Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh or further oblast strategic target? (To which I say do your worst, you... I'd get planked). But why haven't they been used to take out the Kerch Bridge? I know, Ukraine is losing in the east. How will Storm Shadows on Russia stop that? Stop the artillery which I 'prophesied' a year or so ago?
There is a school of thought though, that the West is trying to stiffen the Ukraine's sinews to strengthen its negotiating power prior to talks with Moscow where some bargaining can take place.
They are calling Putin's bluff.
Don't poke the Bear.
There's a balance somewhere and I don't know where it lies, between standing up to a dictator like Putin over his illegal invasion of Ukraine and provoking him to the extent that he unleashes unholy hell.
I don't think even Putin is unhinged enough to cause all out nuclear war but it's not a gamble I'd like to take.
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk doesn't bother him. Western missiles raining down on Russian soil does. Some have already, of course. He's deploying rockets from Iran and according to The Times can afford to put 1,000 extra men into the field every week.
Ukraine can't 'retake Crimea' as the OP asks. It is on the defensive on Kursk. On the back foot in the east.
There's a balance somewhere and I don't know where it lies, between standing up to a dictator like Putin over his illegal invasion of Ukraine and provoking him to the extent that he unleashes unholy hell.
I think you mean unleash unholy hell somewhere that might affect you. Putin has already unleashed unholy hell all over Ukraine. The routine bombings of civilian targets, the abduction of children, the torture centers, the mass graves, . . . did this somehow escape your notice?
There is a school of thought though, that the West is trying to stiffen the Ukraine's sinews to strengthen its negotiating power prior to talks with Moscow where some bargaining can take place.
They are calling Putin's bluff.
Don't poke the Bear.
There's a balance somewhere and I don't know where it lies, between standing up to a dictator like Putin over his illegal invasion of Ukraine and provoking him to the extent that he unleashes unholy hell.
I don't think even Putin is unhinged enough to cause all out nuclear war but it's not a gamble I'd like to take.
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk doesn't bother him. Western missiles raining down on Russian soil does. Some have already, of course. He's deploying rockets from Iran and according to The Times can afford to put 1,000 extra men into the field every week.
Ukraine can't 'retake Crimea' as the OP asks. It is on the defensive on Kursk. On the back foot in the east.
Things are getting very dangerous indeed.
He won't be causal of it. He won't be able to prevent it. And what Western missiles have been rained down on Russian soil? Where? Crimea? Which was Russian for a fair while before '54 when Khrushchev gave it as a meaningless gift to Ukraine. A single Storm Shadow landing in Voronezh oblast can only be met with a tactical nuclear strike on the Ukrainian launch site. Or a medium-long range, non-nuclear, ballistic missile strike on Britain and maybe France. Within a day at the most. On a nuclear attack on Ukraine NATO has to destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine, because Stoltenberg said it would. Remember? Donestk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea. Three days. His move. What can he do? Declare victory? Ukraine has to be sacrificed. Non-nuclear strikes on UK & France or Estonia, Finland & Poland will evoke what response from NATO?
There's a balance somewhere and I don't know where it lies, between standing up to a dictator like Putin over his illegal invasion of Ukraine and provoking him to the extent that he unleashes unholy hell.
I think you mean unleash unholy hell somewhere that might affect you. Putin has already unleashed unholy hell all over Ukraine. The routine bombings of civilian targets, the abduction of children, the torture centers, the mass graves, . . . did this somehow escape your notice?
What I meant was even more unholy hell than he's unleashed already and beyond the borders of Ukraine.
That doesn't mean I'm indifferent to the unholy hell he's already unleashed.
@Martin54 is this you expressing your own opinions clearly and directly, in a form that is intelligible to readers and other thread participants ?
Sorry. UK Storm Shadows are made in Stevenage. Which makes it a perfect target for a non-nuclear ballistic missile should a Storm Shadow hit Russia. If they had such a thing. Just leave the warhead off.
@Martin54 is this you expressing your own opinions clearly and directly, in a form that is intelligible to readers and other thread participants ?
Sorry. UK Storm Shadows are made in Stevenage. Which makes it a perfect target for a non-nuclear ballistic missile should a Storm Shadow hit Russia. If they had such a thing. Just leave the warhead off.
Well, that would be the ultimate proof of Putin's evil, wouldn't it? Being able to reduce Stevenage to a radioactive wasteland and not doing so.
@Martin54 is this you expressing your own opinions clearly and directly, in a form that is intelligible to readers and other thread participants ?
Sorry. UK Storm Shadows are made in Stevenage. Which makes it a perfect target for a non-nuclear ballistic missile should a Storm Shadow hit Russia. If they had such a thing. Just leave the warhead off.
Well, that would be the ultimate proof of Putin's evil, wouldn't it? Being able to reduce Stevenage to a radioactive wasteland and not doing so.
It would prove he's a damn sight smarter than he looks.
@Martin54 is this you expressing your own opinions clearly and directly, in a form that is intelligible to readers and other thread participants ?
Sorry. UK Storm Shadows are made in Stevenage. Which makes it a perfect target for a non-nuclear ballistic missile should a Storm Shadow hit Russia. If they had such a thing. Just leave the warhead off.
Is our radar good enough to detect that there is no nuclear warhead ?
@Martin54 is this you expressing your own opinions clearly and directly, in a form that is intelligible to readers and other thread participants ?
Sorry. UK Storm Shadows are made in Stevenage. Which makes it a perfect target for a non-nuclear ballistic missile should a Storm Shadow hit Russia. If they had such a thing. Just leave the warhead off.
Is our radar good enough to detect that there is no nuclear warhead ?
No. No one's is. That was the reason the the INF Treaty banned certain classes of missiles entirely rather than nuclear armed missiles specifically. Until they land there's no way of telling whether that cruise missile has a conventional or nuclear warhead. I made a similar point on the old Ukraine War thread about two years ago.
The BBC smart money said NATO bases in Estonia and Poland. After I did. Not rocket science is it... And it has to be ballistic, not cruise, missiles. As kinetic energy weapons. So, if Biden says, in a week, the Anglo-French Storm Shadow / SCALP, and German Taurus cruise missiles can be used by Ukraine, and then they are, with NATO assistance that they can't disprove, 300-500km inside Russia, Putin minimally has to hit Estonian and Polish NATO bases with woefully inaccurate ballistic missiles with an at least 20% failure rate, without warheads. At Mach 20, 15,000 mph, that's still one hell of a lot of kinetic energy. We'll all get used to that level of escalation, new to history, I'm sure... Won't we?
Putin went into his "special military action" claiming Ukraine is part of Russia. By that logic, Ukraine has been deploying western munitions against targets in Russia for a long time, and targeting Russian military infrastructure in other parts of Russia isn't a significant change. If, however, Putin declares that western munitions used against targets in the internationally recognised borders of Russia is a significant escalation then he's therefore declaring that his earlier opinion on the status of Ukraine as part of Russia is incorrect.
Comments
Lots of gripes about 'godless' leadership and so on. Zelensky out to outlaw Christianity etc etc etc. One poster seemed to think it could lead to a healing of the grievous schism in some way.
I don't get involved in any of this so have no idea what's going on.
Have any Shipmates heard anything about this or can shed some light on what's happening?
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-parliament-legislative-ban-ukrainian-orthodox-church-539e0f3a6d657277aa4fa93b8ec53505
The ban targets the ROC, but is understood as including the bit of the church that (claimed to have) separated from Moscow after the war began. It does not include the autocephalous Ukrainian church.
😮😮😮
Dear God have mercy. Yikes.
Ok. Thanks for the clarification. I get mixed up with some of the acronyms and it's not always easy on the Ortho-net to tell which group is which or who is falling out with who and why.
Would that be Free Presbyterian or Associated Presbyterian?
Incidentally, I've been checking with people who know more about the 'official' and 'unofficial' Orthodox groups in the Ukraine and what @Arethosemyfeet says is pretty much what's happening.
I believe pope Francis referred to the Patriarch of Moscow as Putin's altar boy.
And yes, it can get confusing for outsiders to distinguish between the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. (Obligatory Life of Brian clip)
No mention here. Or here. I saw in passing somewhere that they had shot down a small fraction.
It says:
It even has a handy link to a DefenseNews article (included above) in case you wanted more details. It must be difficult having a web browser that only allows you to access Ship of Fools.
Pilot Oleksiy Mes... the pilot destroyed three cruise missiles and one drone in Russia's largest aerial attack to date.
RIP
No. That is extrapolation.
How close is Russia to achieving its strategic objective?
How close is Ukraine to achieving its strategic objective?
Do these two recent events materially change that?
One can say Russia has achieved tactical success, recently. Nothing more, nothing less.
AFZ
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-31-2024
From the introduction:
AFZ
Yeah I've seen it. The Bastard's Name Is War.
I hate to say it but you are right on this one.
There is a school of thought though, that the West is trying to stiffen the Ukraine's sinews to strengthen its negotiating power prior to talks with Moscow where some bargaining can take place.
They are calling Putin's bluff.
Don't poke the Bear.
There's a balance somewhere and I don't know where it lies, between standing up to a dictator like Putin over his illegal invasion of Ukraine and provoking him to the extent that he unleashes unholy hell.
I don't think even Putin is unhinged enough to cause all out nuclear war but it's not a gamble I'd like to take.
The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk doesn't bother him. Western missiles raining down on Russian soil does. Some have already, of course. He's deploying rockets from Iran and according to The Times can afford to put 1,000 extra men into the field every week.
Ukraine can't 'retake Crimea' as the OP asks. It is on the defensive on Kursk. On the back foot in the east.
Things are getting very dangerous indeed.
I think you mean unleash unholy hell somewhere that might affect you. Putin has already unleashed unholy hell all over Ukraine. The routine bombings of civilian targets, the abduction of children, the torture centers, the mass graves, . . . did this somehow escape your notice?
He won't be causal of it. He won't be able to prevent it. And what Western missiles have been rained down on Russian soil? Where? Crimea? Which was Russian for a fair while before '54 when Khrushchev gave it as a meaningless gift to Ukraine. A single Storm Shadow landing in Voronezh oblast can only be met with a tactical nuclear strike on the Ukrainian launch site. Or a medium-long range, non-nuclear, ballistic missile strike on Britain and maybe France. Within a day at the most. On a nuclear attack on Ukraine NATO has to destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine, because Stoltenberg said it would. Remember? Donestk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea. Three days. His move. What can he do? Declare victory? Ukraine has to be sacrificed. Non-nuclear strikes on UK & France or Estonia, Finland & Poland will evoke what response from NATO?
It really is all the Bear's fault.
What I meant was even more unholy hell than he's unleashed already and beyond the borders of Ukraine.
That doesn't mean I'm indifferent to the unholy hell he's already unleashed.
It's nobody's fault.
Stevenage.
Sorry. UK Storm Shadows are made in Stevenage. Which makes it a perfect target for a non-nuclear ballistic missile should a Storm Shadow hit Russia. If they had such a thing. Just leave the warhead off.
Well, that would be the ultimate proof of Putin's evil, wouldn't it? Being able to reduce Stevenage to a radioactive wasteland and not doing so.
It would prove he's a damn sight smarter than he looks.
Just saw the funny side. Doh!
Not that this would deter Putin. They are 'Oriental Orthodox'.
But 'Come friendly bombs and fall on Slough.'
We have to find some lightness in all of this.
Is our radar good enough to detect that there is no nuclear warhead ?
No. No one's is. That was the reason the the INF Treaty banned certain classes of missiles entirely rather than nuclear armed missiles specifically. Until they land there's no way of telling whether that cruise missile has a conventional or nuclear warhead. I made a similar point on the old Ukraine War thread about two years ago.
Russia is not currently winning.
So its relentless advance in the Donbas is losing?