As we are immediately in the wake of American-instituted regime change in Venezuela, what are your thoughts on the likelihood of American-instituted regime change in Canada? Unlikely, or are you quietly making plans to move elsewhere?
So far, I think PM Carney has done a pretty good job in walking very fine lines.
Unlikely as the Venezuela was a dictatorship which is always vulnerable to a decapitation operation. Functional democracies are less vulnerable that way.
Before getting worried about Greenland or ourselves, the one thing the US Military is NOT set up to do and is frankly terrible at is long term occupation with guerrilla warfare. It did them in in Vietnam, it did them in in Afghanistan and it will do them in in Venezuela. There is only so much they can do without putting lots of boots on the ground for a very long time and that is likely to prove the real limitation here.
From what I can see, oil companies are very hesitant to invest in Venezuela when they see they could could lose their entire investment to nationalization in a few years after the US stops paying attention.
Unlikely as the Venezuela was a dictatorship which is always vulnerable to a decapitation operation. Functional democracies are less vulnerable that way.
Yeah, I suspect that if something like this decapitation had happened under a president viewed by the world as more of a normal person, it might be seen as morally and legally questionable, but wouldn't be producing mass panic. See Noriega 1989.
But, just 'cuz I'm unclear about your meaning here...
Before getting worried about Greenland or ourselves, the one thing the US Military is NOT set up to do and is frankly terrible at is long term occupation with guerrilla warfare. It did them in in Vietnam, it did them in in Afghanistan and it will do them in in Venezuela. There is only so much they can do without putting lots of boots on the ground for a very long time and that is likely to prove the real limitation here.
Are you suggesting that the US will try to do a long-term occupation of Venezuela, but it won't last due to the incompetency of the American military at such things?
From what I can see, oil companies are very hesitant to invest in Venezuela when they see they could could lose their entire investment to nationalization in a few years after the US stops paying attention.
And the typical Trump voter is likely, shall we say, disengaged enough to believe that the USA now controls all the oil in Venezuela, if that's what Trump tells him, regardless of what the actual reality is.
As we are immediately in the wake of American-instituted regime change in Venezuela, what are your thoughts on the likelihood of American-instituted regime change in Canada? Unlikely, or are you quietly making plans to move elsewhere?
So far, I think PM Carney has done a pretty good job in walking very fine lines.
There are so many imponderables in the Trump administration that it’s hard to make any prediction about anything with any kind of confidence.
But that said, I’m inclined to agree with SPK that Trump or at least his Administration taken as whole* has at least a very basic Realpolitik level understanding of the difference between the two situations. Maduro’s government was (is) widely regarded as illegitimate and additionally Maduro and Chavez are widely regarded as having gratuitously made a mess of Venezuela for however many years. In the circumstances the international response was understandably muted. It’s crossing a whole different line to violate the territorial integrity of a NATO alliance member… as Denmark has been at pains to point out lately.
(*the relationship between these two entities being one of the imponderables I was referring to…)
Trump reminds me a bit of what I call the kamikaze style of litigation, which is where a litigator with no respect for facts or law manages to get surprisingly good results through brazen sociopathy. It’s the sort of thing that works until suddenly it doesn’t. The problem is that there is no way of knowing when things will fall apart and how much damage will have been done in the interim.
But that said, I’m inclined to agree with SPK that Trump or at least his Administration taken as whole* has at least a very basic Realpolitik level understanding of the difference between the two situations. Maduro’s government was (is) widely regarded as illegitimate and additionally Maduro and Chavez are widely regarded as having gratuitously made a mess of Venezuela for however many years. In the circumstances the international response was understandably muted. It’s crossing a whole different line to violate the territorial integrity of a NATO alliance member… as Denmark has been at pains to point out lately.
If the USA starts grabbing territory from other NATO countries, that will be the imediate de facto, and probably the eventual de jure, end of NATO. The people around Trump would have to be absolutely sure that that is in America's interests.
My fellow Canadians all doubtlessly know that anti-foreign aid demagoguery is a tried and true theme on the Canadian right. I do get the impression that, for a lot of the American public, NATO increasingly gives off the same sorta vibe that the alphabet-soup brigade of international co-operation and development agencies give to "the fed-up taxpayers of Canada". Buncha trashy foreigners milking us for cash and dragging us into problems we don't give a shit about.
Or at least, this administration and its allies are talking and acting as if they think there's a big market for anti-NATO posturing among the American public.
Just noticed an article from early last month, about Doug Ford defending the sale of "armoured vehicles" to ICE by a company in Brampton.
I suspect that even after the events today, he doesn't see any problem with that. In fairness, he wouldn't be the first Canadian politician of either party to overlook basic morality when facilitating the sale of military hardware.
Comments
As we are immediately in the wake of American-instituted regime change in Venezuela, what are your thoughts on the likelihood of American-instituted regime change in Canada? Unlikely, or are you quietly making plans to move elsewhere?
So far, I think PM Carney has done a pretty good job in walking very fine lines.
Before getting worried about Greenland or ourselves, the one thing the US Military is NOT set up to do and is frankly terrible at is long term occupation with guerrilla warfare. It did them in in Vietnam, it did them in in Afghanistan and it will do them in in Venezuela. There is only so much they can do without putting lots of boots on the ground for a very long time and that is likely to prove the real limitation here.
From what I can see, oil companies are very hesitant to invest in Venezuela when they see they could could lose their entire investment to nationalization in a few years after the US stops paying attention.
Yeah, I suspect that if something like this decapitation had happened under a president viewed by the world as more of a normal person, it might be seen as morally and legally questionable, but wouldn't be producing mass panic. See Noriega 1989.
But, just 'cuz I'm unclear about your meaning here...
Are you suggesting that the US will try to do a long-term occupation of Venezuela, but it won't last due to the incompetency of the American military at such things?
And the typical Trump voter is likely, shall we say, disengaged enough to believe that the USA now controls all the oil in Venezuela, if that's what Trump tells him, regardless of what the actual reality is.
There are so many imponderables in the Trump administration that it’s hard to make any prediction about anything with any kind of confidence.
But that said, I’m inclined to agree with SPK that Trump or at least his Administration taken as whole* has at least a very basic Realpolitik level understanding of the difference between the two situations. Maduro’s government was (is) widely regarded as illegitimate and additionally Maduro and Chavez are widely regarded as having gratuitously made a mess of Venezuela for however many years. In the circumstances the international response was understandably muted. It’s crossing a whole different line to violate the territorial integrity of a NATO alliance member… as Denmark has been at pains to point out lately.
(*the relationship between these two entities being one of the imponderables I was referring to…)
Trump reminds me a bit of what I call the kamikaze style of litigation, which is where a litigator with no respect for facts or law manages to get surprisingly good results through brazen sociopathy. It’s the sort of thing that works until suddenly it doesn’t. The problem is that there is no way of knowing when things will fall apart and how much damage will have been done in the interim.
If the USA starts grabbing territory from other NATO countries, that will be the imediate de facto, and probably the eventual de jure, end of NATO. The people around Trump would have to be absolutely sure that that is in America's interests.
My fellow Canadians all doubtlessly know that anti-foreign aid demagoguery is a tried and true theme on the Canadian right. I do get the impression that, for a lot of the American public, NATO increasingly gives off the same sorta vibe that the alphabet-soup brigade of international co-operation and development agencies give to "the fed-up taxpayers of Canada". Buncha trashy foreigners milking us for cash and dragging us into problems we don't give a shit about.
Or at least, this administration and its allies are talking and acting as if they think there's a big market for anti-NATO posturing among the American public.
I suspect that even after the events today, he doesn't see any problem with that. In fairness, he wouldn't be the first Canadian politician of either party to overlook basic morality when facilitating the sale of military hardware.