9 Republicans have thrown their hats into the ring for the speakership. 7 of them are election deniers. 8 of them are white men; 1 is Black. House Republicans will hold a candidate forum behind closed doors tonight and possibly vote Tuesday to choose a new candidate. So they'll have had 4 days to court their fellow legislators and rally support. If I could remember the name of the Irish outfit that lets you bet on stuff like whether the House will have a speaker by the end of the week, I'd look up the odds, but I don't see how anyone pulls these people together.
Read about the candidates here - free link to Washington Post piece: https://wapo.st/3Scu8Ke.
9 Republicans have thrown their hats into the ring for the speakership. 7 of them are election deniers. 8 of them are white men; 1 is Black. House Republicans will hold a candidate forum behind closed doors tonight and possibly vote Tuesday to choose a new candidate. So they'll have had 4 days to court their fellow legislators and rally support. If I could remember the name of the Irish outfit that lets you bet on stuff like whether the House will have a speaker by the end of the week, I'd look up the odds, but I don't see how anyone pulls these people together.
Read about the candidates here - free link to Washington Post piece: https://wapo.st/3Scu8Ke.
It looks like the Republicans are dealing with their surplus of candidates by having what is essentially an iterated ranked choice vote (NYT gift link).
House Republicans are expected to meet on Monday evening to hold a candidate forum for aspiring speaker nominees to present their visions for the conference.
They plan to hold an internal election for a new nominee on Tuesday — and if they elect one, Republicans could go to the House floor for a vote that same day.
But because nine Republicans are running for the job, that internal election may take longer than usual. Conference rules mandate that the party nominee must capture a simple majority of votes. If no one captures a majority on the first ballot, the candidate who received the fewest votes will be kicked off the second ballot and lawmakers will vote again. That process will continue until there is a nominee.
That’s what the UK Tories do in their leadership elections, (but I think they also have a threshold - so, say, anyone below 30 votes gets knocked off in the first round then after that it’s the person with the lowest vote who gets the boot.)
That’s what the UK Tories do in their leadership elections, (but I think they also have a threshold - so, say, anyone below 30 votes gets knocked off in the first round then after that it’s the person with the lowest vote who gets the boot.)
With 9 candidates and 221 votes to go around (assuming every Republican House member votes) it's possible for all candidates to get less than 30 votes.
That’s what the UK Tories do in their leadership elections, (but I think they also have a threshold - so, say, anyone below 30 votes gets knocked off in the first round then after that it’s the person with the lowest vote who gets the boot.)
With 9 candidates and 221 votes to go around (assuming every Republican House member votes) it's possible for all candidates to get less than 30 votes.
That sounds like a feature to me, rather than a bug.
The problem with this idea is that they will still have to go to the whole House with whoever the final candidate winds up being--and if they can't even force their own ranks to vote for the person they've agreed on privately, well... But I suppose they've got to try something.
The problem with this idea is that they will still have to go to the whole House with whoever the final candidate winds up being--and if they can't even force their own ranks to vote for the person they've agreed on privately, well... But I suppose they've got to try something.
Exactly. It’s all a waste of time if the entire conference isn’t willing to unite behind the final candidate, which they obviously haven’t been willing to do so far.
Apparently Tom Emmer has emerged as the Republicans' latest nominee for Speaker. I know very little about him but he seems to be a relative moderate among the Speaker candidates and voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. I guess we now see if he can get the votes from a conference where five Republican 'no' votes constitute a veto.
Apparently Tom Emmer has emerged as the Republicans' latest nominee for Speaker. I know very little about him but he seems to be a relative moderate among the Speaker candidates and voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. I guess we now see if he can get the votes from a conference where five Republican 'no' votes constitute a veto.
He just might gain a few Democrat votes just to get the House moving again. I know, wishful thinking.
Apparently Tom Emmer has emerged as the Republicans' latest nominee for Speaker. I know very little about him but he seems to be a relative moderate among the Speaker candidates and voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. I guess we now see if he can get the votes from a conference where five Republican 'no' votes constitute a veto.
Given the hissy fits that the MAGA camp has already thrown over the idea of Emmer being Speaker, I’m not holding my breath.
He just might gain a few Democrat votes just to get the House moving again. I know, wishful thinking.
The Democratic conference has been very united throughout all of this. My guess is they’ll stay that way, at least through one vote to assess where the entirety of the Republican conference stands. After that, maybe, particularly if some kind of deal is made. But that’ll just enrage the MAGA camp more.
Apparently Tom Emmer has emerged as the Republicans' latest nominee for Speaker. I know very little about him but he seems to be a relative moderate among the Speaker candidates and voted to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election. I guess we now see if he can get the votes from a conference where five Republican 'no' votes constitute a veto.
He just might gain a few Democrat votes just to get the House moving again. I know, wishful thinking.
I don't think that makes sense for Democrats. They should really let the Republicans right their own ship.
I have thought for a while that the US is at an inflection point, where we either fall into autocracy or right the ship and head back in the direction of democracy. I keep wondering when we're going to get to the moment that is the real turning point, and this seems like a possibility -- if House Republicans can accept the results of their own internal election of a nominee for speaker, maybe there's hope. Though I suspect the 2024 election will be the real turning point.
They're churning through people at a faster and faster clip. At this rate how long will it take till every single Republican House member has been considered for the speakership?
Three full weeks now without a speaker, three and half till the government shuts down. @The_Riv says the Democrats should let the Republicans right their own ship, but there is no indication that the Rs are capable of that. Should the Ds just let the GOP burn it all down? Is there ever a point where they pick what passes for a reasonable Republican and offer the necessary number of Democratic votes to make that person speaker?
My Congressman just sent me an E-mail asking if Democrats should help unlock the grid and have Congress move ahead. So it sounds like he is thinking of supporting Emmer even though he is a Democrat. I have not replied. I need to think about it a bit.
Dan Newhouse of Washington and David Valadao of California are the two Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump and were re-elected in 2022. I don't know anything about Newhouse. Valadao rescinded his initial endorsement of Trump in 2016, and he voted for the establishment of the January 6 investigating committee. He supports immigration reform; he has to -- he represents a district full of farms that rely on immigrant labor. I totally disagree with him on a lot of things, but he has gotten re-elected in a district that leans Democratic because he connects with and gets stuff done for the community he represents and is able to work with Democrats to some degree. He's on the House Appropriations Committee, as is Newhouse, and they both objected to proposed GOP spending cuts on the farm bill, one of the big pieces of legislature that needs to be passed so the government won't shut down in November. Valadao said he didn't want to hurt agriculture or "people who desperately need food assistance" -- anyone who wants to help the poor can't be all bad.
But I have no idea if either of these guys has the standing with his peers in the House to draw some support.
I wonder if the Democrats might not agree among themselves to support whomever they consider the most reasonable of the Republicans--certainly someone who is not a Trumpist!--which narrows it down right quick--and then approach the Republicans offering to throw their entire weight behind said person as Speaker-to-be-elected? I would think there'd be a handful of Republicans who'd break down and go for it. The problem might be getting that person formally nominated, though...
And GOP "moderates" cave to the reality deniers. Again.
You know what they call the people who went along with the Nazis because they thought the alternative was worse, or they thought they could influence them? Nazis.
It is depressing, but it took more than that, I think. Jordan had Trump’s endorsement but he still lost. I’d say it took a combination of Trump’s endorsement, a candidate that wasn’t actively hated by a potion of the conference, and a sense that Congressional paralysis had to end.
...and a sense that Congressional paralysis had to end.
But that is the problem. There is a small MAGA contingent of the far right, who managed to unseat McCarthy because he dared to reach a deal with Democrats. And so we have the Speaker fight, but the rational, reasonable Republicans who were willing to vote against other candidates who the MAGAnians liked finally cracked and said "the paralysis must end!" and caved in.
And this is how it will be for the upcoming budget battle. The MAGAnians know they just have to stick to their positions, never move, never agree to compromise, never budge...and "more sensible" heads will cave in and do what they want. Just like they did in the Speaker battle. The tail is not just wagging the dog. The tail is dragging the dog wherever the tail wants. There will be no compromising with the Dems over keeping the government running. There will be no compromising period. The whole government will have to dance to the MAGAnians' tune. Because they do not care whether they cause hardship, or disaster, or ruin, or complete destruction. Because they KNOW that the rational people will cave in to their irrational demands rather than let any of that happen.
Yep. I don’t for a minute think that congressional Republicans have put their problems aside. They were desperate to unify, but I think that unity is, at best, temporary. The MAGAniacs will continue to hold the leash, and those Republicans who said they’d never vote for an election denier will continue to roll over.
With so many reactionary measures taken by republican legislatures and secretaries of state across many red states after 2020 elections, I'd say a more likely outcome in 2024 would be GOP majority autocratic government. May it never come to pass.
My money says he'll last till the end of this Congress because the extremists will be fine with what he's doing and no one else wants to shut down the House by ousting the speaker.
Comments
Read about the candidates here - free link to Washington Post piece: https://wapo.st/3Scu8Ke.
As blogger Scott Lemieux puts it, "if you have nine candidates for Speaker you have no candidates for speaker".
With 9 candidates and 221 votes to go around (assuming every Republican House member votes) it's possible for all candidates to get less than 30 votes.
That sounds like a feature to me, rather than a bug.
He just might gain a few Democrat votes just to get the House moving again. I know, wishful thinking.
The Democratic conference has been very united throughout all of this. My guess is they’ll stay that way, at least through one vote to assess where the entirety of the Republican conference stands. After that, maybe, particularly if some kind of deal is made. But that’ll just enrage the MAGA camp more.
I don't think that makes sense for Democrats. They should really let the Republicans right their own ship.
Three full weeks now without a speaker, three and half till the government shuts down. @The_Riv says the Democrats should let the Republicans right their own ship, but there is no indication that the Rs are capable of that. Should the Ds just let the GOP burn it all down? Is there ever a point where they pick what passes for a reasonable Republican and offer the necessary number of Democratic votes to make that person speaker?
Dan Newhouse of Washington and David Valadao of California are the two Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump and were re-elected in 2022. I don't know anything about Newhouse. Valadao rescinded his initial endorsement of Trump in 2016, and he voted for the establishment of the January 6 investigating committee. He supports immigration reform; he has to -- he represents a district full of farms that rely on immigrant labor. I totally disagree with him on a lot of things, but he has gotten re-elected in a district that leans Democratic because he connects with and gets stuff done for the community he represents and is able to work with Democrats to some degree. He's on the House Appropriations Committee, as is Newhouse, and they both objected to proposed GOP spending cuts on the farm bill, one of the big pieces of legislature that needs to be passed so the government won't shut down in November. Valadao said he didn't want to hurt agriculture or "people who desperately need food assistance" -- anyone who wants to help the poor can't be all bad.
But I have no idea if either of these guys has the standing with his peers in the House to draw some support.
https://www.axios.com/2023/10/25/mike-johnson-republican-house-speaker-nominee
So, are they going to change the rules back so that a single member can’t make a motion to vacate?
And all it took was 22 days of paralysis and gridlock.
Hopefully into a ditch. But unfortunately maybe not.
You know what they call the people who went along with the Nazis because they thought the alternative was worse, or they thought they could influence them? Nazis.
And this is how it will be for the upcoming budget battle. The MAGAnians know they just have to stick to their positions, never move, never agree to compromise, never budge...and "more sensible" heads will cave in and do what they want. Just like they did in the Speaker battle. The tail is not just wagging the dog. The tail is dragging the dog wherever the tail wants. There will be no compromising with the Dems over keeping the government running. There will be no compromising period. The whole government will have to dance to the MAGAnians' tune. Because they do not care whether they cause hardship, or disaster, or ruin, or complete destruction. Because they KNOW that the rational people will cave in to their irrational demands rather than let any of that happen.