Is it too soon to ask how Brexit is going?
The_Riv
Shipmate
in Epiphanies
So, lately I've been trundling through (listening as I drive) to old YouTube videos of James O'Brien talking to Brexiters on Leading Britain's Conversation. I'd guess the first of these videos popped into my feed because of viewing current and previous PMQs, but I'm not entirely sure. Anyway, as an American, it's made me wonder how the Brits here on Ship may feel about how Brexit is panning out or not, or whether it's even an important issue any more. It certainly was the only issue for a while, and after a few years of implementation I'm curious to know if anything's evident.
[Note to Hosts & Admins: if I've run afoul of good order or standing here re: Brexit as a topic I apologize.]
[Note to Hosts & Admins: if I've run afoul of good order or standing here re: Brexit as a topic I apologize.]
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Seriously, I've not heard of any benefits, rather the reverse. Businesses in particular are finding it harder to export, or, in the case of firms based in the EU, harder to import into the UK.
A full return to the EU seems more unlikely as the days pass, and, given that the EU has itself moved on from Brexit, they probably aren't all that bothered whether we want to rejoin or not.
A monumental act of national self-harm.
Furthermore, UK winemakers are now allowed to sell wine by the pint.
I note that received wisdom is that the seats that Labour most needs to win off the Conservatives are mostly those that voted heavily for Brexit, which means Labour is strongly disincentivised from pointing out the problems.
(*) that the present UK government cares to acknowledge.
The problems are only too evident, even to those who voted Leave.
This article (from 26 February 2024) may help to explain Labour's attitude towards rejoining the EU. It's not really on their agenda - too late now, perhaps - but there are things they could do which would make relations with our neighbours easier:
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/do-labour-supporters-back-a-softer-brexit/
It has also destroyed in me the sense I used to have that identified with what I thought was my country. It's clear that I was deluding myself. Since 52% of my fellow citizens have identified with some completely different identity to mine, the country I thought I belonged to either never existed or has ceased to.
I don't know what other people think or feel about this. It's become the elephant in the room, the great unmentionable.
IIRC, Jacob Rees-Mogg resorted to the desperate expedient (some time ago) of asking readers of The Sun for a list of positive Brexit benefits. He did this presumably because the government couldn't think of any.
I don't believe that list (if such a thing exists) was ever published.
I very much agree, especially with the paragraph I have emboldened - but parts of the UK have changed in quite different ways and the Brexit vote revealed this. That’s why, after 20+ years in Scotland, I seem to find that I don’t feel at home in England anymore. Brexit brought the differences in perspective across the UK nations in to sharp relief, I think.
EEA or EFTA basically.
Personally I voted remain precisely because all the options were on the table. I actually (long before the Referendum) wanted the UK to be in EFTA but it wasn’t on the ballot paper.
Ironically, in about 10 years time, I suspect we’re going to end up where I want, but that’s not much comfort for all the trudging between 2016 and then.
Essentially, Leave was a coalition of people who wanted to leave, and people who didn’t expect Leave to win and thought it was a free hit to kick the government
Remain was a coalition of people who wanted to Remain and leavers who didn’t trust the government to give them the leave they wanted.
It’s far more nuanced than 52:48 but no one (on either side) likes to talk about that because it muddies the waters.
Basically, I’m a remain voting leaver by instinct
Mr. O'Brien talked to a few people who admitted this. I'm afraid there are more than a few sanctimonious progressives here in the US who may not vote for Biden, or actually vote for Tr*mp in the same manner -- to send a disaffected message. It's worrying.
O'Brien keeps asking people, "What did you win?" (by voting Leave and achieving Brexit) The answers are flimsy at best, ISTM.
https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2023/01/31/green-party-say-uk-needs-to-be-rejoin-ready-as-country-marks-three-years-since-leaving-eu/
There are some sensible ideas on how to prepare the ground, so to speak, but I fear it will be a very long time before the UK redeems itself.
There are cases where a lack of understanding and knowledge of the complexities of a particular issue lead to certain answers sounding a lot more profound than they should, and this is one of those situations.
I fear this also applies to the vast majority of those touting EFTA/EEA as the slightly more expansive version of the same; the idea that free movement, the jurisdiction of the ECJ, a common regulatory framework and fiscal transfers would be entirely 'outside' politics, is .. an interesting one which was already tested to destruction prior to the referendum.
@Enoch isn't alone - I've an English friend who also feels very strongly it's not his country anymore because of Brexit. But he goes much further - I'm shocked by the stuff he says about the English electorate (which I'd never say as a Scot or indeed about anyone) and his opinions on Keir Starmer and his tendency to drape himself in the flag are unprintable.
Meanwhile my Scottish Labour friends who were horrified by Brexit and still oppose it just conveniently forget that their party now supports it. There was a point in Scotland when many people horrified by Brexit joined the SNP or Greens because they felt we'd been deceived in the independence referendum when people were told a 'No' vote was the way to stay in Europe. But that is long past - domestic issues now dominate in the cost of living crisis which people generally don't link to Brexit.
Personally I'm still horrified by it, and especially by Keir Starmer's Labour because any economic recovery and the idea we will grow the economy and fund public services off that is just a fantasy while Brexit lasts. The idea that Brexit has benefits is Boris Johnson like levels of deceit and the only people you see promoting versions of that fantasy abroad are far right populists like Geert Wilders. So to me it's a sign that our political system is still desperately sick and Labour won't cure it because they won't be honest about this or start talking about the reality of it to people. So we're going to keep going downhill as a country for quite some time because of it.
But perhaps most of all it points up how dangerously bad our media is - how good the far-right newspapers are at misinforming and deceiving people and how the political parties run scared of them so they won't tackle it.
Even the anti-Brexit parties - the SNP and Greens don't say as much about it as they used to.
And meanwhile it just goes on screwing things up - we've a steady current of friends affected because their marriage involves an EU partner or because they're doing business in Europe or have family there.
We shall have to wait and see. Maybe things will improve under Labour - including our relations with the rest of Europe - but I probably won't live long enough to see them.
So, would it be fair to say that your friend thinks that the values embodied in brexit are contradictory to the basic British(*) character as handed down over the centuries?
Or is it more along the lines of: "We made some good progress over the last few decades, and I liked the way the country was shaping up, but now brexit is going to reverse it all"?
(*) Or English culture, or whatever your friend's primary identification is.
Seriously @The_Riv - there is NOTHING positive - only negatives.
Mostly, though, the general opinion - even amongst many of those who voted Leave - seems to be that Brexit was the Mistake Of The Century.
Personally, I don't think this country will ever recover from it, as it's far too late to completely repair the damage inflicted.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/mar/14/uk-embarks-on-post-brexit-trade-talks-with-turkey
This will give British consumers easier access to bulgar wheat (I lie awake at night worrying about the dearth of bulgar wheat) and tomatoes. I might be wrong, but I thought we grew tomatoes in this country already?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/may/17/pharmacist-uk-drug-shortage-patient-medication
I have a personal interest here, as I have a form of Addison's Disease, and might well die if I were affected by sudden illness or trauma, and didn't have my meds to hand. Granted, an ambulance might be available in good time, but that's certainly not guaranteed these days.
Nice one, Big Dave, Boris, and the rest of you Leavers. There is a very hot circle of Hell waiting for you all, I hope.
"Mr Speaker, if we approve this agreement, we know that we shall leave the EU on March the 29th in an orderly way, and can commence negotiation of the pertinent treaties. This agreement and the accompanying political declaration are the two keys that unlock the demand of the electorate that we should repatriate control over vast areas of our laws that hitherto have been in the exclusive legislative competence of the EU. If we do not take that first step, then history will judge us harshly, because we will be plunged into uncertainty. And those who wish to prevent our departure if this vote fails today will seek to promote the conclusion that this is all too difficult, and that the government should ask the electorate to think again. That is why former Prime Ministers and their spin doctors and all their great panjandrums of the past are joining the chorus to condemn this deal. For they know this deal is the key - there is no other - destroy it in some form or other, the only practicable deal, and the path to Brexit becomes shrouded in obscurity. And if, Mr Speaker, we should be so deceived that we should permit that, and when historians came to right of this moment, future ages will marvel that the huge repatriation of powers that this agreement entails of immigration, fisheries, agriculture, the supremacy of our laws and courts was rejected, because somehow it did not seem enough, and... because of the Northern Ireland backstop."
It's more like a hugely visceral revulsion and rejection of 'I don't want to be associated with these people anymore - don't wave that flag at me I don't want it, I'm ashamed of it'.
He frames it in terms of stupidity - kind of' 'the stupid people have doomed us all and will keep making things worse' - it's very despairing. I think it's more that he feels it reveals the basic English character to be a bad and hopeless one he feels utterly alienated from. He's got Irish ancestry but not enough for a passport or he'd take that. If Scotland were independent he says he'd move here. Brexit definitely triggered some deep alienation for him
I think in some cases it's robbed people of hope and that comes out in ways that aren't always constructive.
Brexit went massively against the popular vote in Scotland and I believe against the vote in Northern Ireland too. (Gibraltar was also seriously screwed over by it). It is as if - basically England - said to the other nations, and other territories it controls, fuck you this is what we want and if the peace in NI shatters or the Scottish economy tanks we don’t care.
England is the only nation without a devolved assembly and that is because the English tend to think they are Britain. (I am English by the way, probably, in that my parents were born and brought up in England - I was born outside the country and brought up all over the place).
If you wanted to even up the power imbalances - you need to split England back into the seven kingdoms and then federate. At the moment, although the non-English nations have their own assemblies, it is not a federation, and England is by far the largest nation in the union.
[/tangent]
We were embedded to such an extent that we were going headlong into a federal Europe, so it seemed.
They were so convinced that the populace would go along with it in the referendum that they didn’t provide options other than ‘yes’ or ‘no’ - sure that it would shut up those who were not happy about the EU forever. Cameron let everyone down by jumping ship and the government never recovered.
I would love to observe some strong leadership, joined up thinking, moral fibre, a standing up for opinions of our own in world issues (rather than seeming to hang on to the coat tails of America).
I’m not holding my breath.
Nope.
The primary purpose of the European project was to prevent a repeat of the last two world wars.
Do we think that a rich nation with a large army leaving the EU in anyway emoboldened Putin ? Answers on a postcard to the usual address.
The "going headlong into a federal Europe" notion was propaganda to try to scare people into thinking remaining in the EU would lead to surrender of sovereignty to unelected bureaucracy (which was another piece of propaganda - any further political union in the EU would necessarily be an expansion of the powers of the elected Parliament). Though increased political union had been part of the purpose of the EEC and later EU since the beginning, there are several options for that other than a federal Europe, but by telling the people of the UK that the only course for future European developments was what many people disagreed with was a convenient story to tell them to scare them into voting Leave.
The seven kingdoms really aren't a thing. There are identifiable local regions where people tend to share a common identity, but I don't think they really map on to the heptarchy. England's flirtation with regional government in the 90s was not a huge success, and I don't think you'll find any scheme for England's subdivision with clear public support.
And "we want devolved government, so you have to want it too, or otherwise there's a power imbalance" isn't a good argument.
A Scots, Welsh or Irish nationalist would of course say - that having had an empire is not an excuse to keep total control of nations you previously invaded.
The solution in Germany was to dissolve Prussia as a state. That is not really possible here.
Brexit made me ashamed to be English and taught me to value my Welsh and Irish ancestry, although, unfortunately, that ancestry is too remote for me to qualify for a RoI passport. I thought the whole exercise brought out what is worst in the English native character - arrogance (unjustified by achievement) complacency and small-mindedness. Not to mention a fair amount of xenophobia, paranoia and some outright racism.
The very sight of a Union Jack now sickens me. Not because of what it is, but because it has been abused and prostituted by English Nationalists.
I take a certain perverse pleasure in referring to it as "the butchers' apron" to wind up gammons, unionists, and Rangers supporters (to the extent that the venn diagram of those three isn't a circle).
So you give Wales a free pass for voting for Brexit then?
It’s all the fault of the English.
Given that the polling indicates the vote was swung by English expats? Yeah, kinda...
More seriously, British nationalism is the disease, whether the carrier is English, Scottish, Welsh or Ulster(wo)man.
Interesting… source please?
This was probably what I had in mind:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research
By no means definitive, of course, nor does it alter the fact that a lot of Welsh people fell for Leaver lies.
Thanks, there are some quotes in that that are problematic - I’m not sure you’d get away with describing the inhabitants of anywhere in England as ‘genuinely English’ for starters*, but blood and soil is useful at times I suppose….
It was a one voter one vote UK wide referendum fundamentally. We (remainers) might well excoriate leave voters but I have the same problem for the million leavers in Scotland.
I’m not sure it’s helpful to say ‘it was the English’ when that’s 80+% of the population of the UK. It was ALL the leave voters.
*what they self-identify as is a different question but I’m sure there are English retirees in Wales who would claim to be Welsh in exactly the same way as English residents (any age) in Scotland might identify with Scotland.
Though that does raise questions of the difference between ex-pat and immigrant, and indeed whether you can be an ex-pat or immigrant within the UK, which comes back to blood and soil….
I was born in England and moved to Scotland 12 years ago. My daughter was born in Scotland and I value Scotland for what it *is*, not how I can make it more like England (which isn't to say I'm uninterested in seeing Scotland be better). To me the ex-pat is someone who likes the landscape/weather of a place but thinks it would be improved by being socially and culturally more like their home. The immigrant sets up a restaurant to share their cuisine with the locals; the ex-pat sets one up to cater to other ex-pats. I think all of us who migrate exist on a continuum between the two, and I hope to be more toward the immigrant than the ex-pat end. I am, however, most definitely a migrant, even within the UK.