It does indeed look as though he's at long last realised that the game is up, and that it's time to go.
No doubt there will be a leadership contest, but he probably won't care too much about that. Neither will many other people, perhaps, although we ought to be careful what we wish for.
Any Ruanda flights will have to happen soon. Once everything gets going purdah rules apply. If a flight happens during purdah the government cannot announce it (as I understand it). If it is not announced then there is no point. The government would want us to know
It does indeed look as though he's at long last realised that the game is up, and that it's time to go.
Yes, I think Rwanda flights aside, he was hoping for a quicker recovery and a lowering of interest rates, and apart from the summer/autumn was going to be rolling speculation about the number of letters that may or may not have gone in.
I do hope people will vote for someone they would like to represent them in parliament, and get to know who the candidates are.
I despair of our chances of getting a government with integrity if people vote for someone they don’t want to represent them, to try to keep someone else they don’t want out.
I do hope people will vote for someone they would like to represent them in parliament, and get to know who the candidates are.
I despair of our chances of getting a government with integrity if people vote for someone they don’t want to represent them, to try to keep someone else they don’t want out.
Alas the chances of getting a government of integrity collapsed along with Liz Truss, because the unassailable poll lead she gifted to Labour made Starmer untouchable. The only question now is how to rein in his worst impulses once in government. I can only hope he at least doesn't hear the siren song of liberal interventionism and decide Iran would welcome regime change or something equally dangerous.
Any Ruanda flights will have to happen soon. Once everything gets going purdah rules apply. If a flight happens during purdah the government cannot announce it (as I understand it). If it is not announced then there is no point. The government would want us to know
Maybe the government secretly thinks that they won't happen or that something may go wrong with them. Maybe part of the election timing is to retain the plausible idea that they are just about to happen.
Any Ruanda flights will have to happen soon. Once everything gets going purdah rules apply. If a flight happens during purdah the government cannot announce it (as I understand it). If it is not announced then there is no point. The government would want us to know
Maybe the government secretly thinks that they won't happen or that something may go wrong with them. Maybe part of the election timing is to retain the plausible idea that they are just about to happen.
Hmm. I can almost hear the tories saying *Vote for US, and the Rwanda flights will happen! Vote for THEM, and they won't...*
Well, it's a dead cert for Starmer, I'd say but never under-estimate the Conservatives. I don't think they'll win and I fully expect their nasty side to become even more apparent as they begin their campaign.
But I wouldn't be surprised if they poll better than anticipated.
Any Ruanda flights will have to happen soon. Once everything gets going purdah rules apply. If a flight happens during purdah the government cannot announce it (as I understand it). If it is not announced then there is no point. The government would want us to know
I think I know what you mean by *purdah* in this context, but could you be a bit more specific, please?
Any Ruanda flights will have to happen soon. Once everything gets going purdah rules apply. If a flight happens during purdah the government cannot announce it (as I understand it). If it is not announced then there is no point. The government would want us to know
I think I know what you mean by *purdah* in this context, but could you be a bit more specific, please?
During the pre-election period, between the calling of an election and the close of polling, civil servants are prevented from making announcements of government (local or national) policies or initiatives. So, between now and the close of polls if there were Rwanda flights the information about these can not be through civil service channels - these can be announced by politicians, but there won't be any further information and confirmation from Home Office, Border Force or other branches of the civil service who would normally provide that information. Yesterday, announcements like that could go through gov.uk but tonight they can't.
Any Ruanda flights will have to happen soon. Once everything gets going purdah rules apply. If a flight happens during purdah the government cannot announce it (as I understand it). If it is not announced then there is no point. The government would want us to know
I think I know what you mean by *purdah* in this context, but could you be a bit more specific, please?
During the pre-election period, between the calling of an election and the close of polling, civil servants are prevented from making announcements of government (local or national) policies or initiatives. So, between now and the close of polls if there were Rwanda flights the information about these can not be through civil service channels - these can be announced by politicians, but there won't be any further information and confirmation from Home Office, Border Force or other branches of the civil service who would normally provide that information. Yesterday, announcements like that could go through gov.uk but tonight they can't.
I could be wrong but I thought it (purdah) started after parliament was officially dissolved. At the end of this week they're going to be prorogued, which I think is different to it being dissolved, which should happen on 30 May.
If that's correct, there are a few more days/weeks of normal gov announcements and business.
I am surprised and rather pleased to discover that the rules have changed for UK citizens living abroad and I am now eligible to vote again. (Voting rights used to expire after 15 years.) I have just sent my application.
I do hope people will vote for someone they would like to represent them in parliament, and get to know who the candidates are.
I despair of our chances of getting a government with integrity if people vote for someone they don’t want to represent them, to try to keep someone else they don’t want out.
Alas the chances of getting a government of integrity collapsed along with Liz Truss, because the unassailable poll lead she gifted to Labour made Starmer untouchable. The only question now is how to rein in his worst impulses once in government. I can only hope he at least doesn't hear the siren song of liberal interventionism and decide Iran would welcome regime change or something equally dangerous.
Ironically - and the same happened in reverse with May in 2017 - there’s almost a need for some people to bite the bullet and vote Tory tactically to limit the size of Labour’s majority…?
I do hope people will vote for someone they would like to represent them in parliament, and get to know who the candidates are.
I despair of our chances of getting a government with integrity if people vote for someone they don’t want to represent them, to try to keep someone else they don’t want out.
Alas the chances of getting a government of integrity collapsed along with Liz Truss, because the unassailable poll lead she gifted to Labour made Starmer untouchable. The only question now is how to rein in his worst impulses once in government. I can only hope he at least doesn't hear the siren song of liberal interventionism and decide Iran would welcome regime change or something equally dangerous.
Ironically - and the same happened in reverse with May in 2017 - there’s almost a need for some people to bite the bullet and vote Tory tactically to limit the size of Labour’s majority…?
Nah, that would only encourage him. He needs to hemorrhage votes to his left in large enough numbers that it makes it worth his while to court those votes. It's the only thing that will help.
Given the snp dominance North of the boarder and the lack of sizable lib dem numbers in what used to be marginals (aka everywhere I've ever lived) I'm still worried that the parliamentary maths could mean a hung parliament or even a zombie tory win somehow.
The SNP need to get their act together, and get their voters out, otherwise many of those seats will swing red. Current polling suggests that many who voted SNP in 2015, 2017 and 2019 are either planning on voting Labour or not voting (reflecting what happened in Rutherglen and Hamilton West last year). They risk losing their 3rd largest party in Westminster position to the LibDems.
The overall outcome is still looking like a near wipeout of Conservatives and a massive Labour majority. Though, much of that will be the result of Conservative voters staying home and anything that gets them out could change that significantly.
@ChastMastr, a Conservative melt-down has long been predicted since the wheels started coming off the Tory juggernaut (or lying battle-bus) during Boris's term in office. Yes, they won by a landslide in 2019 but that was only by making bottomless promises which they have signally failed to deliver.
The wheels were wobbly under Johnson and were falling off under Truss but Sunak has been holding them on temporarily with sellotape.
The electorate won't forget that.
Nevertheless, as @Twangist has warned there may still be a hung Parliament or zombie Tory vote.
For my sins, I'm a Lib Dem and the electoral system and maths tends to mean that we do well at local and regional elections but get squeezed out in national elections. It can also mean - sadly - that we can end up splitting the opposition vote. FWIW, I think the Lib Dems could do well in suburban areas down south but will do less well across the Midlands and North.
As the SNP implodes I think Labour will recover its traditional territories north of the border. The Lib Dems may make some gains but realistically this is going to be a Labour vs Tory contend to be quite honest I think it's time for the Lib Dems to vote tactically in many parts of the country. That sentiment wouldn't go down well with HQ but it's where things are at.
FWIW, for various reasons, I also share some of the concerns @Arethosemyfeet and others on the Labour left have expressed about Starmer. My fear is that he could easily lead us into a Blair-like buccaneering swashbuckle on the world stage in support of the US.
Look where the last one got us.
In the meantime, yes, I think the days of this grossly inept and incompetent Tory administration are numbered. But that in itself is no guarantee of sunny uplands ahead.
I think the LD and Greens are going to do well, the SNP will not do as badly as some predict, Reform will lose everywhere despite saturation coverage on the BBC.
None of this will matter, in all likelihood, as Labour will have a comfortable majority.
That said, I'm not sure Labour really have things together enough to turn things around quickly. I suspect the problems are going to escalate over the summer and Sunak is bottling it.
Labour are claiming they will rein in government spending and won't seek to reverse Brexit, and Brexit and fourteen years of reining in government spending are what has got us into the mess we're in now.
Latest nugget is that Tory back benchers are sending in No Confidence letters in an attempt to oust Rishi and cancel the dissolution of Parliament.
Once Parliament is dissolved the General Election has to happen. Parliament is due to be dissolved on 30th May - next Thursday.
The plan will not work; getting someone in place in that time would be one thing; I have no idea if there is precedent for cancelling a request to dissolve Parliament.
And then the Tories would be having a leadership election at the same time as the general election run-up.
Latest nugget is that Tory back benchers are sending in No Confidence letters in an attempt to oust Rishi and cancel the dissolution of Parliament.
Once Parliament is dissolved the General Election has to happen. Parliament is due to be dissolved on 30th May - next Thursday.
The plan will not work; getting someone in place in that time would be one thing; I have no idea if there is precedent for cancelling a request to dissolve Parliament.
And then the Tories would be having a leadership election at the same time as the general election run-up.
I think the King has already agreed. Say what you like about our essentially phoney democracy, but once you've persuaded the king to do something it is extremely hard to undo it.
Latest nugget is that Tory back benchers are sending in No Confidence letters in an attempt to oust Rishi and cancel the dissolution of Parliament.
Once Parliament is dissolved the General Election has to happen. Parliament is due to be dissolved on 30th May - next Thursday.
The plan will not work; getting someone in place in that time would be one thing; I have no idea if there is precedent for cancelling a request to dissolve Parliament.
And then the Tories would be having a leadership election at the same time as the general election run-up.
That would be an utter shit-show that would make their election performance even more abysmal.
Latest nugget is that Tory back benchers are sending in No Confidence letters in an attempt to oust Rishi and cancel the dissolution of Parliament.
Once Parliament is dissolved the General Election has to happen. Parliament is due to be dissolved on 30th May - next Thursday.
The alleged reason is that they are pissed off they are going to be losing their seats in short order, when they thought they had 6 months or so to find alternative employment, and Sunak is being selfish because he is rich and has a house in California.
I'm assuming Sunak will still be the Conservative candidate in Richmond. Which means (barring the biggest political shock in history) he'll still be an MP on the 5th July. So the "being selfish" list should be "because he's rich, has a house in California, and will still be an MP after the election".
Latest nugget is that Tory back benchers are sending in No Confidence letters in an attempt to oust Rishi and cancel the dissolution of Parliament.
Once Parliament is dissolved the General Election has to happen. Parliament is due to be dissolved on 30th May - next Thursday.
The alleged reason is that they are pissed off they are going to be losing their seats in short order, when they thought they had 6 months or so to find alternative employment, and Sunak is being selfish because he is rich and has a house in California.
They're probably not entirely wrong.
But in the words of Sir Humphrey - "The Prime Minister giveth, and the Prime Minister taketh away.
I like how Sunak is touring the media with his "facts are facts" slogan. As if we are all too stupid to comprehend simple facts including:
* Inflation means prices have increased by 25% since 2018
* Wages rising below inflation means that for many workers their buying power has reduced
Yes. When many people hear "inflation has fallen" they understand it as "prices have dropped", not as "prices are still going up, but slightly less rapidly than they did". And IMO the politicians play on this.
That said, I'm not sure Labour really have things together enough to turn things around quickly. I suspect the problems are going to escalate over the summer and Sunak is bottling it.
Whoever wins, they won't be able to turn anything around quickly. The country has been too badly run for too long and there is too little scope for sane manoeuvre for that to be within the scope of possibilities. Anyone who can't see that is as much living in unicorn and flying pigs land as those who voted for Brexit in 2016.
Try rewriting Harold Macmillan's phrase 'Events, dear boy, events' as 'Facts, dear boy, facts'.
My suspicion is that Sunak has picked the brief moment when the inflation figures look a bit better and there's minimal economic growth rather than shrinkage because he's got reason to know it won't last even into the autumn. Those Conservative MPs who put their party's long term future ahead of drawing their own salaries for a few more weeks should commend him for calling the election now, when the party's future looks poor, rather than hanging on until the last and something happens with makes that future much worse.
I don't think anything that happens in either Ukraine or Gaza will have that much bearing on the result. There are enough serious issues that affect peoples' day to day lives here to push both those well down the list of most voters' priorities.
I think Labour will win, and I think they deserve to, but I don't think the Conservatives will be as wiped out as some pollsters imagine.
Anyone who can't see that is as much living in unicorn and flying pigs land as those who voted for Brexit in 2016.
Not just Brexit, but austerity which many people here supported at the time, which arguably tipped the scales on Brexit and which the possible incoming government isn't going to move away from.
I don't think a vast Labour majority is a given. A combination of George Galloway's WPB plus Richard Tice and his rag-bag of disaffected malcontents that constitute Reform could cause havoc in what might have been assumed to be Labour shoo-in seats.
I don't think a vast Labour majority is a given. A combination of George Galloway's WPB plus Richard Tice and his rag-bag of disaffected malcontents that constitute Reform could cause havoc in what might have been assumed to be Labour shoo-in seats.
I don't think a vast Labour majority is a given. A combination of George Galloway's WPB plus Richard Tice and his rag-bag of disaffected malcontents that constitute Reform could cause havoc in what might have been assumed to be Labour shoo-in seats.
I hope I'm wrong.
Reform Ltd are what give Labour an unassailable lead. The only havoc they could cause is by withdrawing and endorsing the tories. Galloway's party isn't going to have an impact - the number of socially conservative Muslims who like left wing economic policy and are willing to switch to him is not big enough. The Greens are a far bigger threat and they're nowhere close to being able to deprive Starmer of a majority.
The SNP are unhappy with 5th July. Don't understand why!
I think because Scottish schools and universities have their summer breaks earlier than in England and so fewer students and academics will vote, which might disproportionately affect SNP support. Small effect though I expect.
Having it happen on a day when all the schools are closed anyway seems to me less disruptive overall.
I think it depends on whether you think it is disproportionately likely to affect voters for some parties over others. The constituency system means that even if the vote in Scotland is suppressed compared to the English vote, because more Scots are away, it won't affect Scottish overall representation.
I don't think a vast Labour majority is a given. A combination of George Galloway's WPB plus Richard Tice and his rag-bag of disaffected malcontents that constitute Reform could cause havoc in what might have been assumed to be Labour shoo-in seats.
I hope I'm wrong.
Reform Ltd are what give Labour an unassailable lead. The only havoc they could cause is by withdrawing and endorsing the tories. Galloway's party isn't going to have an impact - the number of socially conservative Muslims who like left wing economic policy and are willing to switch to him is not big enough. The Greens are a far bigger threat and they're nowhere close to being able to deprive Starmer of a majority.
All of these parties have power to affect the result by splitting the vote. The Tories may lose safe seats because some of their voters defect to Reform; the LibDems may lose seats because their people go to the Greens. People moving from SNP to Labour may let in the Tories or LibDems; people moving between SNP and Alba or between the various Welsh parties will also have their effect. To me the thing that will really determine the result is Labour's success, or otherwise, in Scotland - they'll struggle to get a majority without 20 or more seats north of the Border.
Comments
This isn't a cheap shot - it's a good point. He knows his days are numbered so he may as well move to the US at a time which suits his family.
No doubt there will be a leadership contest, but he probably won't care too much about that. Neither will many other people, perhaps, although we ought to be careful what we wish for.
Yes, I think Rwanda flights aside, he was hoping for a quicker recovery and a lowering of interest rates, and apart from the summer/autumn was going to be rolling speculation about the number of letters that may or may not have gone in.
I despair of our chances of getting a government with integrity if people vote for someone they don’t want to represent them, to try to keep someone else they don’t want out.
Alas the chances of getting a government of integrity collapsed along with Liz Truss, because the unassailable poll lead she gifted to Labour made Starmer untouchable. The only question now is how to rein in his worst impulses once in government. I can only hope he at least doesn't hear the siren song of liberal interventionism and decide Iran would welcome regime change or something equally dangerous.
Maybe the government secretly thinks that they won't happen or that something may go wrong with them. Maybe part of the election timing is to retain the plausible idea that they are just about to happen.
Hmm. I can almost hear the tories saying *Vote for US, and the Rwanda flights will happen! Vote for THEM, and they won't...*
But I wouldn't be surprised if they poll better than anticipated.
I think I know what you mean by *purdah* in this context, but could you be a bit more specific, please?
Leaks may still occur, I suppose, courtesy of unauthorised sources, so to speak.
I could be wrong but I thought it (purdah) started after parliament was officially dissolved. At the end of this week they're going to be prorogued, which I think is different to it being dissolved, which should happen on 30 May.
If that's correct, there are a few more days/weeks of normal gov announcements and business.
Ironically - and the same happened in reverse with May in 2017 - there’s almost a need for some people to bite the bullet and vote Tory tactically to limit the size of Labour’s majority…?
Nah, that would only encourage him. He needs to hemorrhage votes to his left in large enough numbers that it makes it worth his while to court those votes. It's the only thing that will help.
The overall outcome is still looking like a near wipeout of Conservatives and a massive Labour majority. Though, much of that will be the result of Conservative voters staying home and anything that gets them out could change that significantly.
Praying you guys get better government (and that here in the US we don’t get Trump in November, please God please).
I imagine it is going to be a Labour majority maybe 30-50 seats. Tories will lose a lot of high profile MPs.
More than a chance. Labour are some 20 points ahead in the opinion polls.
The wheels were wobbly under Johnson and were falling off under Truss but Sunak has been holding them on temporarily with sellotape.
The electorate won't forget that.
Nevertheless, as @Twangist has warned there may still be a hung Parliament or zombie Tory vote.
For my sins, I'm a Lib Dem and the electoral system and maths tends to mean that we do well at local and regional elections but get squeezed out in national elections. It can also mean - sadly - that we can end up splitting the opposition vote. FWIW, I think the Lib Dems could do well in suburban areas down south but will do less well across the Midlands and North.
As the SNP implodes I think Labour will recover its traditional territories north of the border. The Lib Dems may make some gains but realistically this is going to be a Labour vs Tory contend to be quite honest I think it's time for the Lib Dems to vote tactically in many parts of the country. That sentiment wouldn't go down well with HQ but it's where things are at.
FWIW, for various reasons, I also share some of the concerns @Arethosemyfeet and others on the Labour left have expressed about Starmer. My fear is that he could easily lead us into a Blair-like buccaneering swashbuckle on the world stage in support of the US.
Look where the last one got us.
In the meantime, yes, I think the days of this grossly inept and incompetent Tory administration are numbered. But that in itself is no guarantee of sunny uplands ahead.
None of this will matter, in all likelihood, as Labour will have a comfortable majority.
Once Parliament is dissolved the General Election has to happen. Parliament is due to be dissolved on 30th May - next Thursday.
The plan will not work; getting someone in place in that time would be one thing; I have no idea if there is precedent for cancelling a request to dissolve Parliament.
And then the Tories would be having a leadership election at the same time as the general election run-up.
I think the King has already agreed. Say what you like about our essentially phoney democracy, but once you've persuaded the king to do something it is extremely hard to undo it.
That would be an utter shit-show that would make their election performance even more abysmal.
On that basis, I rather hope they do it…
The alleged reason is that they are pissed off they are going to be losing their seats in short order, when they thought they had 6 months or so to find alternative employment, and Sunak is being selfish because he is rich and has a house in California.
* Inflation means prices have increased by 25% since 2018
* Wages rising below inflation means that for many workers their buying power has reduced
They're probably not entirely wrong.
But in the words of Sir Humphrey - "The Prime Minister giveth, and the Prime Minister taketh away.
Blessed be the name of the Prime Minister"
Yes. When many people hear "inflation has fallen" they understand it as "prices have dropped", not as "prices are still going up, but slightly less rapidly than they did". And IMO the politicians play on this.
Try rewriting Harold Macmillan's phrase 'Events, dear boy, events' as 'Facts, dear boy, facts'.
My suspicion is that Sunak has picked the brief moment when the inflation figures look a bit better and there's minimal economic growth rather than shrinkage because he's got reason to know it won't last even into the autumn. Those Conservative MPs who put their party's long term future ahead of drawing their own salaries for a few more weeks should commend him for calling the election now, when the party's future looks poor, rather than hanging on until the last and something happens with makes that future much worse.
I don't think anything that happens in either Ukraine or Gaza will have that much bearing on the result. There are enough serious issues that affect peoples' day to day lives here to push both those well down the list of most voters' priorities.
I think Labour will win, and I think they deserve to, but I don't think the Conservatives will be as wiped out as some pollsters imagine.
Not just Brexit, but austerity which many people here supported at the time, which arguably tipped the scales on Brexit and which the possible incoming government isn't going to move away from.
I hope I'm wrong.
You and me both.
Reform Ltd are what give Labour an unassailable lead. The only havoc they could cause is by withdrawing and endorsing the tories. Galloway's party isn't going to have an impact - the number of socially conservative Muslims who like left wing economic policy and are willing to switch to him is not big enough. The Greens are a far bigger threat and they're nowhere close to being able to deprive Starmer of a majority.
It's a day after everyone else and all the polling stations will be closed?
I think because Scottish schools and universities have their summer breaks earlier than in England and so fewer students and academics will vote, which might disproportionately affect SNP support. Small effect though I expect.
I think it depends on whether you think it is disproportionately likely to affect voters for some parties over others. The constituency system means that even if the vote in Scotland is suppressed compared to the English vote, because more Scots are away, it won't affect Scottish overall representation.
All of these parties have power to affect the result by splitting the vote. The Tories may lose safe seats because some of their voters defect to Reform; the LibDems may lose seats because their people go to the Greens. People moving from SNP to Labour may let in the Tories or LibDems; people moving between SNP and Alba or between the various Welsh parties will also have their effect. To me the thing that will really determine the result is Labour's success, or otherwise, in Scotland - they'll struggle to get a majority without 20 or more seats north of the Border.