To Be or Not to Be: The make up of the 119th Congress

Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
edited September 2024 in Purgatory
When Biden was still running for office, the great fear among Democrats was that their status in the next congress would collapse. Now that Harris is running the great fear among Republicans is their hold on the House will vanish.

By my way of thinking, the last thing Johnson wants to see is him losing the Speaker of the House by way of the rebels on the right. If they refuse to approve a continuing resolution for the next six months, shutting down the government, people will remember that come voting day.

All Jefferies (D) needs is two seats to win control of the House. I think he will get it.

Trump is our best ally when it comes to the House

Comments

  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    I hope you're right. But I would bet money the Democrats will lose the Senate. They'll lose Manchin's seat in West Virginia and Tester's in Nebraska, and possibly Sherrod Brown's in Ohio. Which means even if Harris wins the presidency, she'll have a hell of a time getting her appointees confirmed.
  • Umm, You might want to check your geography, Ruth. Tester is from MONTANA. He has been called down and out in previous elections, but somehow, he makes it through. Manchin will likely lose, yes. Brown through still leads in Ohio, and I think there is a strong reaction to JD Vance's lies about Springfield. Moreover, Ohio has a prochoice amendment on the ballot. We will likely have a 50/50 senate.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Manchin will likely lose, yes.
    Manchin will not lose because he isn’t running; he’s retiring. A Republican will almost certainly pick up that seat. We will be very lucky if it’s a 50/50 Senate again. I don’t see any reason to bank on that kind of luck. It’s a good map for the Republicans this year.

    Gramps49 wrote: »
    All Jefferies (D) needs is two seats to win control of the House. I think he will get it.
    The House has 435 representatives, which means a majority of the House is 218 representatives. There are currently 211 Democratic representatives, so by my math that means Jeffries needs seven more seats to win control the House.

    It’s worth noting that while in some places, Republicans won seats in 2022 in districts that typically lean Democratic, so those seats may be easier to pick up, in other places (such as my state), there has been redistricting as a result of litigation, and some seats districts that leaned Democratic now lean (heavily) Republican. I think it’s a toss-up, at least at this point. The Republicans may make indeed make it harder on themselves if they cause a shutdown.


  • I think an opposition Congress is the most likely outcome for Harris, and a conciliatory Congress the most likely outcome for Tr*mp.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Umm, You might want to check your geography, Ruth. Tester is from MONTANA.
    Whatever. One of those states where hardly anyone lives but I'm supposed to care about because they still get to send two senators to Washington. Which is the point of the imbalance, but which I don't have to be happy about. If Trump wins and everything goes to shit, I'll be supporting California secession so I never have to think about Nebraska, Montana and Wyoming ever again.

    Next time you correct me, about doing it without "Umm" and the all caps, considering how many factual things you get wrong, including in that post right there.

    Also, is anyone but you projecting a 50/50 Senate?
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited September 2024
    One of those states where hardly anyone lives

    Tell that to the 1.13 million people who claim residency there. It is the seventh fastest growing state in the US, especially on the West Side.

    It also has two congressional seats in the House. btw.


  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    @Gramps49 @Ruth this is getting personal. Lower the temperature or take it to hell please.

    la vie en rouge, Purgatory host
  • For those who are interested my take on various Senate races from back in January can be found here.

    One of the interesting things about this year's Senate races is that the seats most in jeopardy are not held by freshman Senators facing their first election as an incumbent, they're mostly Senators with a long history who are in trouble now because their states have changed so much politically that they're not a good fit any more. Joe Manchin saw how far he was polling behind Jim Justice and decided to not bother running. Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester are in similar situations, though they've decided to go down fighting, if they do end up going down.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Tell that to the 1.13 million people who claim residency there.

    Los Angeles County *alone* has about 10 million, so yeah, by my standards hardly anyone lives in Montana. LA County would be more populous than something like 40 other states if we were our own state (I'm not going to look up the exact number). But nationally elected figures do not have to care about us. I will continue to be irritated by the over-representation sparsely populated states have in Congress and by the fact that presidential candidates only have to court the uber-rich in California.
  • When you think about it, which states have the most power in congress, especially in the Senate. The ones with the least amount of population. Each state, regardless of size, is assigned two Senators. That's why everyone is watching the Tester's race. Him winning the seat will keep Shumer in power, provided the other seats remain the same.

    Now, when it comes to congressmembers. How many reps are there in congress representing LA county. My count says 12. That is 805 thousand per congress member: whereas, the congress members in Montana represent 565 thousand. It takes a lot to get the California Congressional Delegation to agree on one issue. Not so much with the Montana Delegation.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    That's why everyone is watching the Tester's race. Him winning the seat will keep Shumer in power, provided the other seats remain the same.
    Which they won’t, because West Virginia will switch from being a Democratic seat to a Republican seat.


  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    One of those states where hardly anyone lives

    Tell that to the 1.13 million people who claim residency there. It is the seventh fastest growing state in the US, especially on the West Side.

    That's roughly the same as the northern part of Scotland (North East and Highlands & Islands regional constituencies). Outside of Aberdeen I think most people would accept that the area is lightly populated. Even then the population density is 3+ times that of Montana.
  • Nick Tamen wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    That's why everyone is watching the Tester's race. Him winning the seat will keep Shumer in power, provided the other seats remain the same.
    Which they won’t, because West Virginia will switch from being a Democratic seat to a Republican seat.

    The Democrats have a 51-49 majority in the current Senate (counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders as Democrats for the purposes of determining the Senate majority). They can lose West Virginia and still retain control of the Senate provided it's the only currently Democratic seat they lose and they retain the vice presidency. If they don't retain the vice presidency they'll have bigger issues to worry about.
  • Nick TamenNick Tamen Shipmate
    edited September 2024
    Yes, but I was responding to “provided the other seats remain the same.” That “provided” isn’t going to happen.


  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited September 2024
    I conceded West Virginia was gone previously. Should have made the clarification again.

    But the intent of this thread is to talk about the House more than the Senate. When one refers to the 118 or 119 congress, they are linking it more to the House.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Believe it or not, it is about time to talk about the future makeup of the 120th Congress. It is often said--at least by me--the midterm election often goes to the minority party. I think this will be the case. People are angry about the firings of the federal employees. The employees do vote, you know, and they make a strong block in every state. People will also begin to feel the pinch of the tariffs in a few weeks, The price of Eggs have yet to come down. Trump/Musk et al want to cut Social Security Benefits and Medicare/Medicaid.

    A key tool for any Congressman is his contact with his constituents. Town Halls are a usual way to keep in contact. But the Republican town halls recently have been very difficult and embarrassing to the congressperson. It has gotten to the point where
    Republican the leadership is telling their members to avoid them. Democrats are seeing this as an opportunity to put the Republican congressperon on the defense.

    Keep it up Democrats. Let's see how many red districts will go blue.
  • Nick TamenNick Tamen Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Keep it up Democrats. Let's see how many red districts will go blue.
    Keep it up? Democrats are pretty unpopular right now, and a large part of why is that they aren’t seen as actively opposing Trump’s abuses. Instead, they’re seen as wringing their hands. The Democrats haven’t get their act together.


  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Furst of all, I am not surprised Schumer and nine other Senators voted to end closure on the Continuing Resolution to fund the government through September. Why give Trump the excuse to fire more federal workers because there would have been no more funds to pay for them. Besides, federal workers are in a real tough spot as it is. No need to put them under more stress.

    Second, here is a report on the most recent Republican congressman town hall in North Carolina. This is a solid red district. It did not go well.

    No wonder the Republicans are avoiding meeting their constituents in public gatherings.
  • Nick TamenNick Tamen Shipmate
    edited March 15
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Second, here is a report on the most recent Republican congressman town hall in North Carolina.
    That article is behind a paywall, but it can be read at Yahoo News here.

    This is a solid red district.
    The district—which is large and covers most of western North Carolina, and in which going 30 miles as the crow flies can take over an hour—is solidly red. But the town hall was held in Asheville, which is solidly blue.

    Asheville is also home to a large VA hospital, and national parks are important to the local economy and to a large chunk of the population. And as the article notes, Asheville and the surrounding area were devastated by Hurricane Helene; there are commercial areas of Asheville that you still can’t drive through, and the arts district along the French Broad River, also important to the local economy, was pretty much destroyed. So no one should be at all surprised at the reactions there to DOGE.

    I’m not at all trying to downplay the significance at the public outrage being expressed at these town halls. But to view this particular town hall through the lens of having happened in “a solid red district” simply isn’t accurate.


  • One thing that I can respect in that article is that Rep. Edwards says that he intends to keep holding town hall meetings. Good for him - it's his job to come and face his constituents rather than hiding. I would, naturally, prefer it if he would actually take on board what the people are saying and vote against some of the worst parts of the Trump program, but I can at least respect him for showing up.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 16
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Furst of all, I am not surprised Schumer and nine other Senators voted to end closure on the Continuing Resolution to fund the government through September.

    Bullshit. Total bullshit! Congressional Democrats had a plan, and Schumer and nine other Senate Democrats left their House colleagues twisting in the wind after suddenly changing their minds. Regardless of whether this was a reasonable choice from a larger political perspective, Schumer just made it that much harder for his co-partisans across the rotunda to ever take him at his word again. If this was the right decision to make he should have been clear on that from the beginning, rather than switching plans in the space of 24 hours and betraying House Democrats. Chuck Schumer just made it almost impossible for Congressional Democrats to work together.
    One thing that I can respect in that article is that Rep. Edwards says that he intends to keep holding town hall meetings. Good for him - it's his job to come and face his constituents rather than hiding.

    Actually you do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to them.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 16
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Furst of all, I am not surprised Schumer and nine other Senators voted to end closure on the Continuing Resolution to fund the government through September.

    Bullshit. Total bullshit! Congressional Democrats had a plan, and Schumer and nine other Senate Democrats left their House colleagues twisting in the wind after suddenly changing their minds. Regardless of whether this was a reasonable choice from a larger political perspective, Schumer just made it that much harder for his co-partisans across the rotunda to ever take him at his word again. If this was the right decision to make he should have been clear on that from the beginning, rather than switching plans in the space of 24 hours and betraying House Democrats. Chuck Schumer just made it almost impossible for Congressional Democrats to work together.
    One thing that I can respect in that article is that Rep. Edwards says that he intends to keep holding town hall meetings. Good for him - it's his job to come and face his constituents rather than hiding.

    Actually you do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to them. Especially if they're going to call the police on their constituents.
  • RuthRuth Shipmate
    Schumer's seat doesn't come up for a vote till 2028, but pissed-off Democrats are encouraging AOC to run against him in the primary. I suppose it's too much to hope that he'll retire rather than run again. He's 74.
    Crœsos wrote: »
    One thing that I can respect in that article is that Rep. Edwards says that he intends to keep holding town hall meetings. Good for him - it's his job to come and face his constituents rather than hiding.

    Actually you do not, under any circumstances, gotta hand it to them. Especially if they're going to call the police on their constituents.

    What immediately came to my mind: "Say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos."
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