What on earth is going on in South Korea?

TurquoiseTastic

Martial law is not what I was expecting in South Korea. Shows what I know. Do any Shipmates have further insights on this situation? I had no idea things might take this turn!

Arethosemyfeet

I knew there were disagreements with how to approach relations with the DPRK but had no idea they were more than disagreements.

It's worth remembering, however, that the ROK's status as a multi-party democracy is less than 40 years old.

chrisstiles

Looks like a self coup by the ruling party with the premier accusing the somewhat centrist opposition of working with NK. The commander in charge of enforcing martial law has said that protests are banned and that the media is now operating under the control of martial law, so it appears to be sticking with the military for now.

Crœsos

I'm not a Korea expert, but I found this Bluesky thread from Karl Friedhoff of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. An excerpt:

The short of this up front: this is the end of Yoon's presidency. Full stop. He had a razor thin margin in the National Assembly--8 votes I believe--to prevent impeachment. That margin will disappear. The only question is how his presidency will end and how much violence it will entail.

The tl;dr version is that a right wing president elected by a narrow margin and facing corruption investigations is making a desperate last play to hold on to power and avoid accountability. Sounds vaguely familiar.

Bishops Finger

Crœsos wrote: »

I'm not a Korea expert, but I found this Bluesky thread from Karl Friedhoff of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. An excerpt:

The short of this up front: this is the end of Yoon's presidency. Full stop. He had a razor thin margin in the National Assembly--8 votes I believe--to prevent impeachment. That margin will disappear. The only question is how his presidency will end and how much violence it will entail.

The tl;dr version is that a right wing president elected by a narrow margin and facing corruption investigations is making a desperate last play to hold on to power and avoid accountability. Sounds vaguely familiar.

It does indeed. Could it happen elsewhere?

Crœsos

According to some reports, South Korean special forces have seized control of the Parliament building. Protesters outside, as well as some MPs, are reportedly trying to force their way in. South Korea's Parliament has the power to lift a declaration of martial law. They also have the power to impeach and remove the president.

The one big variable in all this is North Korea. How will the notoriously paranoid Kim Jong Un interpret South Korea's declaration of martial law?

HarryCH

Gleeful laughter?

Crœsos

HarryCH wrote: »

Gleeful laughter?

I'm more worried if he takes it as a sign of a military mobilization, with the protests being staged as cover.

Arethosemyfeet

Thus far it looks like the ROK is offering a textbook example of how to handle an attempted coup by a sitting president - constitutional process accompanied by peaceful protest, soon to be followed by the removal from office of the offender. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

Crœsos

Apparently 190 members of South Korea's 300 member Parliament were able to convene and voted to lift the declaration of martial law.

The military has abandoned its blockade of the Parliament building but its leaders say they will maintain martial law until the decree is lifted by President Yoon.

MrsBeaky

My father, a career army officer, fought in the Korean War. Having survived the Second World War he honestly didn't believe he would survive another. He believed in democracy. Please God this will settle soon and democracy, including the right to protest, will prevail. However, the world seems even more volatile than in the 50s so who knows?

stonespring

Martial law has been lifted. How much longer will Yoon remain as President?

Gramps49

This was not the first time the government of South Korea tried to impose martial law, Back in 1980 South Korean University Students and their professors went on strike in opposition to the military dictator at the time. The military severely cracked down. Deal of it was the American government under Carter supported the crack down. Look up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwangju_Uprising

I think this is why the opposition along with the students reacted so strongly to the most recent attempt.

Martin54

Picture of the century. Nobel Peace Prize for Ahn Gwi-ryeong!

stonespring

All of this is Yoon’s fault, but the level of polarization in Korea, the apocalyptic language used by both sides, and the decades of lawfare waged by one party against the other (presidents have a history of winding up in prison) worries me because it may be where other countries are headed.

Arethosemyfeet

stonespring wrote: »

All of this is Yoon’s fault, but the level of polarization in Korea, the apocalyptic language used by both sides, and the decades of lawfare waged by one party against the other (presidents have a history of winding up in prison) worries me because it may be where other countries are headed.

Did the Presidents actually commit crimes? I'm deeply suspicious of the term "lawfare" as it often seems to be a tactic to justify ignoring crimes committed by politicians.

Barnabas62

I agree about ‘lawfare”. It was used to describe some legitimate due process re Donald Trump.

And I think due process is a key phrase here. Easily overlooked.

Arethosemyfeet

FFS the President's party have walked out of the impeachment vote, hiding behind the President's "apology". Fucking cowards. Clearly I spoke too soon about the ROK handling this better than the US.

Crœsos

Arethosemyfeet wrote: »

FFS the President's party have walked out of the impeachment vote, hiding behind the President's "apology". Fucking cowards. Clearly I spoke too soon about the ROK handling this better than the US.

And Yoon has been impeached after a few members of his party crossed over to support impeachment.

The motion held that Yoon’s declaration of martial law was unconstitutional and illegal because there were no signs of national emergency and he neglected to follow procedural rules such as notifying the National Assembly in advance.

Supporters of the motion included members of Yoon’s governing People Power Party (PPP), whose boycott of an earlier impeachment vote had caused it to fail. Though the opposition controls parliament, it holds only 192 seats and needed support from at least eight PPP lawmakers to impeach Yoon.

Also of interest is this article from Foreign Policy about the coup from the perspective of civil-military relations. It was published about a week ago, around the time the first impeachment vote on Yoon failed. A sample.

Without a doubt, Yoon’s coup attempt laid bare the South Korean military’s erosion of political neutrality and its failure to operate as a professional institution. Yoon’s imposition of martial law was illegal from the outset, as it did not meet the necessary conditions for such a declaration, such as the presence of an armed rebellion, a breakdown of law and order, or an external threat that renders civilian governance impossible. The military’s compliance with these unlawful orders exacerbates concerns over its allegiance.

Moreover, despite South Korean law explicitly prohibiting the use of armed force against the legislature under martial law, special forces attempted to seize the National Assembly to block a vote to lift it. Even after the National Assembly voted to revoke martial law — legally requiring immediate presidential compliance — military officers defied the decision, insisting on maintaining martial law until Yoon personally rescinded it. In no uncertain terms, the military was loyal to an individual leader over the nation. However, young soldiers on the ground, mostly conscripts and therefore untainted by the groupthink of Army elites, appeared to display passive resistance to what they perceived as unreasonable orders, which ultimately contributed to the passage of the resolution to lift martial law.

It can be tough to defy illegal orders, but it's still concerning that the military seems to have gone along with this for as long as it did.

Sandemaniac

I was never going to even consider the job that a recruiter was trying to interest me in Incheon City, but this makes me even gladder I'd already decided that.

Nick Tamen

Our son’s girlfriend, whose mother is Korean, has been in Seoul since October visiting family. She comes back next week. It’ll be interesting to hear her take on it all.

The_Riv

Do share if you can, @Nick Tamen.

Crœsos

This is how you do it.

A South Korean court gave authorities approval on Tuesday to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in a criminal investigation into his martial law decree, marking the first time that a sitting president of the country has faced arrest.

The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) confirmed the Seoul Western District Court approved an arrest warrant requested by investigators examining Yoon's short-lived imposition of martial law.

Yoon, who has been suspended from office, is facing investigation on allegations that he was the leader of an insurrection, one of the few criminal charges from which a South Korean president does not have immunity. Separately, his trial on impeachment is being heard at the Constitutional Court.

The arrest warrant for an incumbent president is unprecedented, and deepens the political crisis that has engulfed South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy and a key U.S. ally.

What's grimly amusing to me is that Reuters describes quickly and effectively responding to an attempt to overthrow the government as a "crisis". The coup attempt was a crisis. This is the system working as it was intended.

Martin54

The yin and yang of emergent moral foundations goes on. It all looks completely deterministic, those embracing democratic minima and those insecure with that.

ChastMastr

Martin54 wrote: »

The yin and yang of emergent moral foundations goes on. It all looks completely deterministic, those embracing democratic minima and those insecure with that.

Re "It all looks completely deterministic," to who?

Martin54

ChastMastr wrote: »

Martin54 wrote: »

The yin and yang of emergent moral foundations goes on. It all looks completely deterministic, those embracing democratic minima and those insecure with that.

Re "It all looks completely deterministic," to who?

To me, but that's hindsight. We all want to be free one way or another. But one person's freedom is another person's insecurity.

Alan Cresswell

Ah, quantum history. Everything is fluid, the outcome unknown and many possible futures achievable ... until hindsight makes it all completely deterministic.

Martin54

Alan Cresswell wrote: »

Ah, quantum history. Everything is fluid, the outcome unknown and many possible futures achievable ... until hindsight makes it all completely deterministic.

Indeed. But the tensions in in the Korean peninsular, after an inconclusive civil war ending 71 years ago, with three and a half million dead, over 10% of the population, and the north ruled by a nuclear armed autocrat, whom it's closest ally regards as the comrade from Hell, and the south being democratic for the last 38 of those 71 post war years, the 34 years previous characterized by military dictatorship. So it's not at all surprising that a large proportion of the population supports 'emergency powers' by an anti-democratic leader.