What's with Syria"

A rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has taken Aleppo, Hamas and is now on the outskirts of Homs. It seems this group had previously had connections with Al Qaeda but has disavowed any current relationship. The American supported Kurds have also taken Deir Ezzor in the eastern desert.

It seems the Syrian army is demoralized and not putting up a fight. I think the Russians have a military base outside of Homs. That may be threatened

In the past, Assad has had support from Hezbollah, Russia and Iran, but Israel has decimated Hezbollah, and apparently weakened Iran. Russia has given some air support, but it also cannot fight two wars simultaneously.

Who is supporting HTS?

Will Assad fall?

Will we have another theocracy to contend with, if the HTS is successful?
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Comments

  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Kurds I see on Xitter say it's Turkey backing HTS, but they tend to say that about anyone vaguely Islamist so I don't know how true that is.
  • I'm hearing that it is as much a Shia versus Sunni thing as anything else. I'm also hearing that the rebels are threatening to behead the Bishop of Aleppo.

    Two Syrian bishops were captured early in the civil war and not been heard of since. Various monks and nuns were also taken prisoner and are presumed dead.

    Assad is a dictator and a bad egg but has enjoyed Christian support because he has been relatively tolerant in matters of religion. The Al Queda links/origins of the main rebel group has been reported and although the rebels are playing that down, I don't see any evidence that they'll act any differently if they succeed in toppling Assad.

    Russia has backed Assad of course, and very brutally too. It looks like they are sending more drones and munitions but are not really in a position to deploy additional troops.

    Syrian Christians and other religious minorities are very, very worried indeed.

    It's always been messy. It could get messier yet.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited December 2024
    Kurds I see on Xitter say it's Turkey backing HTS, but they tend to say that about anyone vaguely Islamist so I don't know how true that is.
    Look at the map. Sunni Arab HTS couldn't possibly be doing this without Sunni Turkish support.
    Russian and Iranian officials are expected to meet with their Turkish counterparts at the weekend to discuss a response to this upsurge in Syria's civil war.

    Turkey backs some of the rebel groups and its president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for months pressed Mr Assad to reach a political solution with the opposition.

    He has voiced support for the rebels' recent advances, and said the offensive would not have happened if Assad had responded to his calls.

    Analysts say it almost certainly could not have happened without Ankara's knowledge and approval.
    BBC

    Russia better do something or it will lose its only Mediterranean port.

    This presages a massive tilt to Sunni Islam in the Middle East, driven by global warming.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    According to the Economist HTA descend from Syrian al-Quaida though they have split from them and are attempting to persuade religious minorities they will exercise some tolerance. SNA are a Turkish proxy, the article continues. Assessing for corruption and brutality, it suggests that HTA might be "little better" than Assad with SNA "far worse".
  • Ultimately, who will benefit the most from the potential overthrow of Assad?
  • Reports that rebels are in the outskirts of Damascus. Has Assad got his escape route planned?
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited December 2024
    Reports that rebels are in the outskirts of Damascus. Has Assad got his escape route planned?

    Probably. His family is reportedly already in Russia. [ paywall ] The Russians are reportedly moving their ships out of their naval base at Tartus. Various commanders in Iran's Quds Force have been evacuated from Syria. [ also paywall ] It's starting to have a rats fleeing a sinking ship feeling.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Ultimately, who will benefit the most from the potential overthrow of Assad?

    You don’t have to be a close and attentive fan of the works of John Le Carre to come up with about 17 mutually contradictory answers to that…
  • https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/syria-civil-war-12-07-2024-intl/index.html
    Syria rebels declare Damascus ‘free,’ claim Assad has fled the capital
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited December 2024
    There seems to be a level of discipline and common sense going on, like the rebels are allowing officials to continue basic functions of the state, and are promising no interethnic and interfaith violence. Let’s hope they can manage the transition with the minimum of violence.
  • The BBC's Frank Gardner agrees with me: 'serious risk that Syria could go the way of Libya and descend into a years-long morass of competing armed factions, looting, and mayhem.'

    Which is good for Israel of course...
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Risk but not certainty at this point.
  • Risk but not certainty at this point.

    Agreed. Can the factions form a parliament, if that's what one can call a gathering of unelected leaders? A council. What kind of urban local government does Syria have?
  • betjemaniacbetjemaniac Shipmate
    edited December 2024
    Martin54 wrote: »
    What kind of urban local government does Syria have?

    After however many years of nasty civil war who knows (though I’d suggest that where the Assad regime’s writ still ran until this week it was probably pretty functional).

    Syria, like Iraq, were completely functioning states - keep your head down, don’t criticise the regime, try not to end up in one of their police stations or prisons and you’d have a pretty normal western style life.

    None of that is an endorsement of dictatorship obviously but Syria was by regional standards a pretty western style (albeit non-democratic) state*

    So urban local government was IIRC up to the war present, self-sustaining and effective.

    Having worked alongside a lot of people from various Middle Eastern states in the 2000s if forced to actually live in the Middle East - again not endorsing the regime or the brutality below the surface - Syria would have been pretty high up my list of choices.

    Ahead of Saudi, below Jordan.

  • Superb. Thank you @betjemaniac. So more functional than Gaddafi's Libya? And it won't become a Sharia state.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Superb. Thank you @betjemaniac. So more functional than Gaddafi's Libya? And it won't become a Sharia state.

    Well I’m not sure your final sentence follows from your question (at all)…

    Syria was (probably still is even now) streets ahead of Libya. Think more Zimbabwe as a comparison. Dreadful regime, very much functioning state.

    But all that as I say was before the war started.
  • Gadaffi was running a mafia fiefdom. The Assads were running a state.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited December 2024
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Superb. Thank you @betjemaniac. So more functional than Gaddafi's Libya? And it won't become a Sharia state.

    Well I’m not sure your final sentence follows from your question (at all)…

    Syria was (probably still is even now) streets ahead of Libya. Think more Zimbabwe as a comparison. Dreadful regime, very much functioning state.

    But all that as I say was before the war started.

    13 years ago, yes. Sharia: How actually socially conservative are the faction leaders? Global warming drove reactionary peasants off the land in to the cities back then. Their freedom is like libertarians. Only for them.

    Regardless, a functional Syrian Sunni Arab state cannot be good news for Israel. Apart from cutting off an Iranian proxy.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Superb. Thank you @betjemaniac. So more functional than Gaddafi's Libya? And it won't become a Sharia state.

    Well I’m not sure your final sentence follows from your question (at all)…

    Syria was (probably still is even now) streets ahead of Libya. Think more Zimbabwe as a comparison. Dreadful regime, very much functioning state.

    But all that as I say was before the war started.

    13 years ago, yes. Sharia: How actually socially conservative are the faction leaders? Global warming drove reactionary peasants off the land in to the cities back then. Their freedom is like libertarians. Only for them.

    Regardless, a functional Syrian Sunni Arab state cannot be good news for Israel. Apart from cutting off an Iranian proxy.

    In the short term this boots the Russians and the Iranians out of Syria.

    Israel are probably quite happy (though wondering what comes next).

    Depends whose creature the rebels are. If this has got Turkey behind it then who knows - historically Israel and Turkey have been very close, more recently much less so. But from Israel’s pov a Turkish backed regime would at least have the value of them knowing what they’re dealing with
  • I like it. Selfishly wanting a quiet life. The status quo is re-established.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Gadaffi was running a mafia fiefdom. The Assads were running a state.
    They were running a state in a manner that many people likened to the Godfather films or Goodfellows. There doesn't seem much difference between Gadaffi and the Assads.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited December 2024
    Israel are probably quite happy (though wondering what comes next).

    They are unlikely to want a strong Syrian state of any stripe. Even a democratic state will - rightly - demand the Golan Heights back - and there's the small matter of their recent invasion to create a 'buffer zone'.
  • betjemaniacbetjemaniac Shipmate
    edited December 2024
    Gadaffi was running a mafia fiefdom. The Assads were running a state.
    They were running a state in a manner that many people likened to the Godfather films or Goodfellows. There doesn't seem much difference between Gadaffi and the Assads.
    But my point was what that looked like on the ground. Libya was a corrupt basket case, Syria was a functioning country. Given the choice of having to live in either, most sane people would have chosen Damascus over Tripoli.
  • We have a community of Syrian refugees here, who came here from refugee camps via the UNHRC programme. They have given talks in the library about their lives before they fled their homes - photos of shopping malls, coffee shops, walking in the sun through parks, eating ice cream, etc.

    Talking to female refugees, one of the issues they have is hijab as they have to wear it here. Pre-war, girls wore hijab to school, much as we would wear a coat. Once inside their all-female school they took it off. I've seen photos of one of our refugees with her friends at school, teenage girls in skinny jeans, short skirts, pretty tops, sparkly sandals. Schools here are mixed sex so teenage girls wear hijab all day.

    Generally speaking, the Syrian refugees here who have navigated the UNHCR scheme are well-educated and able to navigate bureaucracy, so possibly not "average" Syrians. But the photos I have seen, and indeed the ease with which they have integrated, suggests that they had what betjemaniac describes as "a pretty normal western style life."

  • Rumours that Assad's plane was shot down. More likely, wish fulfilment.
  • According to Al Jazeera, a lot of Syrian refugees are willing to take the chance on the situation stabilizing quickly.
    Cars flooding into Syria after al-Assad’s ouster

    Nour Qormosh, reporting near Idlib, Syria

    We are here, by the N-5 Highway. Cars are moving on the highway with people returning to their homes in Syria for the first time in 14 years.

    The joy of the people is insurmountable. We’ve talked to the civilians here as they transport their belongings back into the country. Their joy is shared across the Syrian geography – from Idlib to Hama, Homs, Damascus, and Deraa.

    This is the most significant moment in the history of the Syrian revolution.
  • So far, Christians appear to be treated OK, churches open, and mass celebrated. The first hint of persecution however, will not augur well. But various groups keep declaiming that they have renounced jihadism.
  • Rumours that Assad's plane was shot down. More likely, wish fulfilment.

    There is a report that a Syrian plane has disappeared over Hom. It took off from Damascus just as the rebels entered the city. It was headed toward the coast, then did an abrupt turn and disappeared later. There is no way of knowing if Assad was on that plane at this time.
  • The Orthodox world appears to be quite anxious. Don't forget that the Syriac Orthodox Bishop of Aleppo and his Antiochian (Greek) counterpart were both kidnapped by rebels in 2013 and nothing has been heard of either of them since. Various monks and nuns were also captured and are presumed dead.

    That's not to say, of course, that their fears will be realised but as the BBC's Jeremy Bowen said on Radio 4, if a dictator keeps a heel on a nation's throat for long enough, all sorts of things can kick-off once the boot has been removed.

    There are plenty of competing factions and so lots of scope for this to go horribly, horribly wrong. We need to hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

    The best case scenario is that the rebels really have disavowed their very radical Islamist/Al Qaeda roots and see the need for pluralism - or that returning refugees and those who remained throughout the hellish civil war, the Syrian people are very resilient - will create the conditions for that.

    The worst is that the whole things descends into further chaos as rival factions jostle for position, or that Islamist extremists start rounding up Alawites, Christians and other minorities.
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    The BBC is reporting that Assad has arrived in Moscow. So he appears to have made it out alive at least.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited December 2024
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Superb. Thank you @betjemaniac. So more functional than Gaddafi's Libya? And it won't become a Sharia state.

    Well I’m not sure your final sentence follows from your question (at all)…

    Syria was (probably still is even now) streets ahead of Libya. Think more Zimbabwe as a comparison. Dreadful regime, very much functioning state.

    But all that as I say was before the war started.

    13 years ago, yes. Sharia: How actually socially conservative are the faction leaders? Global warming drove reactionary peasants off the land in to the cities back then. Their freedom is like libertarians. Only for them.

    Regardless, a functional Syrian Sunni Arab state cannot be good news for Israel. Apart from cutting off an Iranian proxy.

    In the short term this boots the Russians and the Iranians out of Syria.

    To go back to this; possibly, but it's equally likely that this was the result of some three way dealing between Russia, Iran and Turkey (HTS is relatively small, and its notable that the iranian backed PMUs were nowhere to be seen - as they have been previously).
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    It fell too fast to be without some preemptive negotiation to facilitate it I think.
  • It fell too fast to be without some preemptive negotiation to facilitate it I think.

    I wouldn't be too sure about that. Regime collapse, like Hemmingway's statement on bankruptcy, usually happens two ways: gradually, then suddenly. This may have been a cascade of one party deciding not to put more resources into what they finally decided was a failing enterprise, which led to others making the same decision, with everyone eventually scrambling for the exits.
  • My theory is that Putin decided he had something better to do with his support, namely to defeat Ukraine.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited December 2024
    It is not only Putin that withdrew, but also the Iranians and Hezbollah. The stars just came together, when all three were at their weakest.

    I have not seen the BBC report about Assad being in Russia. I have seen reports the Russian media is saying he is in Russia. Until he appears on video, we will not know for sure.

    Apparently, Russia is also saying Assad made a deal that their basis would be safe and he allowed for the peaceful transition of his government.

    Something tells me they are trying to save face.
  • Reports are also coming out that US Central Command has launched B52, F15, and A10 attacks on 75 ISIS targets in Syria, just as Damacus was falling to HTS.

    Trump may not want us to be there, but we are at least for the next few weeks.
  • According to The Times HTS is committed to Syrian nationalism and pluralism as well as Sharia law...
  • Merry Vole wrote: »
    According to The Times HTS is committed to Syrian nationalism and pluralism as well as Sharia law...

    Sunni majority Ahmed al-Sharaa has to be all things to all men and will have more success than his former Iraqi Sunni minority boss Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Ultimately, who will benefit the most from the potential overthrow of Assad?

    The Syrian people?
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Ultimately, who will benefit the most from the potential overthrow of Assad?

    The Syrian people?

    One can hope, but it's far from certain.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    I'm going to go with "people in Sednaya prison who were just about to be tortured to death and now may possibly not be tortured to death"
  • One wonders how many people will now have Bashar Al-Assad in their 2025 death pools...
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    One wonders how many people will now have Bashar Al-Assad in their 2025 death pools...

    Air travel in Russia is notoriously accident prone. And of course there is that ongoing defenestration epidemic.
  • Indeed. All factors that make you wonder if he'll get to 2025.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited December 2024
    For Putin, his main concern (relating to Syria) at the moment is the Tartus naval base which provides the Russian Navy with their only base of operation in the Mediterranean. Loss of access to this would mean Russian naval vessels would need to return to bases in the Black Sea to replenish supplies or for minor repairs. Russia has never been comfortable relying on the goodwill of other nations for access to shipping routes - and the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus being the only route from the Black Sea has been a long standing concern as these are Turkish inland waterways only open to passage by international agreement. Russian worries about the use of these water ways was part of the tension with the Ottoman Empire that lead to the Crimean War in the 1850s, with Russia trying to gain from the weakening Ottoman Empire. From the other side, opening up these water ways to allow supplies to Russia in 1914-17 lead to the Gallipoli campaign of 1915.

    If part of the price for Russia maintaining that base is the return of Assad to face trial in Syria I doubt his claim for asylum would mean very much to Putin. But, until things settle down in Syria and that issue comes onto the table Putin will probably see the value in keeping a bargaining chip alive. So, he's probably safe to stand near windows for the time being.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    I'm going to go with "people in Sednaya prison who were just about to be tortured to death and now may possibly not be tortured to death"

    From The Economist: "Some prisoners, now freed by the victorious rebels, are so traumatised they have forgotten their own names".
  • One wonders how many people will now have Bashar Al-Assad in their 2025 death pools...

    Air travel in Russia is notoriously accident prone. And of course there is that ongoing defenestration epidemic.

    All depends on how many billions he managed to deposit in Sberbank.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    A harrowing article - despite the fact that it leaves out any graphic details - concerning a Syrian activist who escaped in 2013 and toured western capitals testifying to Assad's horrific tortures from personal experience but who returned to Syria in 2020 (partly due to lack of support from the Dutch government) where he was tortured to death shortly before Assad's overthrow...
  • I'm surprised that Hmeimim air base in Syria hasn't come under Ukrainian commando or mercenary attack. Yet.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    I'm surprised that Hmeimim air base in Syria hasn't come under Ukrainian commando or mercenary attack. Yet.

    Not sure what Ukraine’s ability to project power into hostile third countries out of domestic theatre is like at the moment TBH
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