Will Reform become a proper threat at the next election

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  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    He's also almost certainly not the only MP who gives a significant proportion of their pay to charities, and most likely not the only one who gives everything away. But, most people don't make a big fuss about voluntary donations they make to charities.

    I agree.
    Perhaps the charities sometimes let it slip out to encourage others
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited February 15
    And charity covers a multitude of sins... What charities?
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    The early Marxist and feminist Helen Macfarlane called this kind of charity an 'infamous word, which we desire to see erased from the language of every civilised people'. She wanted rights for people and proper provision so they didn't need to rely on asking for charity and here we are being distracted by the word 'charity' while talking about a bunch of shysters, racists, Putinists and authoritarians.
  • Reform MP Rupert Lowe donates his Commons salary to charities in his constituency.

    To add to what @Louise said above; I don't think being "independent wealthy" is a particular virtue - especially when a large amount of your fortune comes from subsidies from the state.
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    There's been some recent polling on Reform in Scotland which might be of interest - it was in The Sunday Times

    Farage's party is more popular than Labour among its traditional working-class voters, with 18 per cent favouring Reform at Holyrood over Labour's 15 per cent. Reform was backed by nearly twice as many working-class voters as Labour when they were asked who they intended to vote for in the next general election.

    Reform is the second most popular party among older men, behind the SNP, with the support of 25 per cent of males aged 35-54 and 21 per cent of those over 55 - six points clear of Labour in both age groups in terms of Westminster voting intention.


    We were discussing the Hope Not Hate megapoll of Reform supporters in Hell

    https://hopenothate.org.uk/2024/04/11/what-reform-uk-voters-really-think/

    Which among other findings says:

    Of the 1,843 people who said that they would vote Reform UK if the election was held at the time they completed the survey, just over a third (36%) were over 65, another third were aged between 45-64 and 29% were aged between 18 and 44.

    Sixty per cent were male and 75% did not have a University degree. Over nine out of ten were ethnically white, while half of the remainder were Asian (predominantly Hindus and Sikhs).

    A higher proportion of Reform UK voters (49%) own their own home outright compared to the population as a whole (36%), and its voters are also likely to be marginally poorer than society as a whole

    And I found the data tables are online - link that takes you to where you can download them


    https://findoutnow.co.uk/blog/polling-on-reform-uk-for-hope-not-hate/


    What I want find is one of those neat little 'voter flow' diagrams that tell you where the support is coming from. I know I've seen one somewhere for Scottish vote flows at the election but haven't seen a UK one.

    There's obviously things going on with age, gender and education in there.

    They're at 13% list, 14% constituency in Scotland which puts them ahead of Lib Dems and Greens

    https://bsky.app/profile/ballotbox.scot/post/3liapjgokqk2t

    which is still shocking though when you consider how poorly UKIP fared in Scotland. Because of the proportional side of the system that could net them over a dozen msps


    In Scotland we recently had quite a good budget addressing things like winter fuel allowance and child poverty but whether that will make a difference and what is fuelling the rise is hard to say.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    I am from a working class family, my sister still is what would be called working class (though most people don’t think of me as working class). I am originally from Lancashire (North West England) so fall into the category that seem to be leaning towards Reform. As people may have gathered I do not.
    Reform use a lot of dead cats. Pushing certain buttons and in the chaos saying things that should make the people I mentioned upset.
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    Sensible words @hugal

    So by pure coincidence there's a new version, drawing on the latest Scottish polling, of one of those handy voter flow charts I was talking about

    It's from Mark McGeoghegan, one of the two very good Scottish politics psephologists on Bluesky (they're the budding tier below top professional Prof John Curtice - the other one is Allan Faulds of @ballotboxscotland )

    Link here to thread-
    https://bsky.app/profile/markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social/post/3lik52ddjlc2j

    It shows the 2024 Labour vote absolutely imploding all over the shop - and yes there's a noticeable chunk of the Labour vote which has recently boosted Reform.

    This will likely be why Anas Sarwar just conducted his sell out of trans people to try and lure those voters back. Purgatorial words don't cover what I think of him.
  • peasepease Tech Admin
    Time to reanimate this thread? (Also with regard to Doublethink's question in Hell.)

    According to Gawain Towler, press adviser to Nigel Farage 2009 to 2024, speaking to Krishnan Guru-Murthy on Channel 4 News yesterday, the key issues for Reform are (which the context suggests are the ones they are, and will continue to be, campaigning on):
    net zero, defence of the realm, two-tier justice and the whole woke agenda.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited May 3
    So bigotry, climate denial and a big army. I’d be interested to know what they mean by a two tier justice system as there is an outside chance I’d agree with them on that.
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    edited May 3
    So bigotry, climate denial and a big army. I’d be interested to know what they mean by a two tier justice system as there is an outside chance I’d agree with them on that.

    At a rough guess, that one could be translated as 'the justice system is too soft on people I disapprove of' - the campaign against 'the woke agenda' will tell us who those people are.

    As the justice system already treats anyone who is not rich, white, and (at least) middle class more harshly than anyone who doesn't belong to these groups, this is not a rational position so can't be argued against logically. I have tried. The more tactful Reform-voting members of my family refuse to discuss politics with me. The others won't talk to me at all.

    I notice that the NHS is not on that list. The billionaires who fund Reform want to get rid of it, of course, but that could be their weak point.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    So bigotry, climate denial and a big army. I’d be interested to know what they mean by a two tier justice system as there is an outside chance I’d agree with them on that.

    His personal gripes are that the woman who threw a milkshake at him didn't get a severe enough sentence, and that the police should go in harder vs things like the BLM marches.
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    Throwing milkshakes at politicians is very unBritish. The traditional missile is a rotten egg.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    So bigotry, climate denial and a big army. I’d be interested to know what they mean by a two tier justice system as there is an outside chance I’d agree with them on that.

    His personal gripes are that the woman who threw a milkshake at him didn't get a severe enough sentence, and that the police should go in harder vs things like the BLM marches.

    Oh well, I did say it was an outside chance - I was thinking more in terms of one law for those who are not dependent on legal aid etc ...
  • peasepease Tech Admin
    edited May 3
    Along the lines that Jane R suggests, what is meant by a "two-tier" justice system (from Central Chambers, Manchester):
    This phrase has been repeatedly used and is a callback to the use of the term “Two-Tier Kier” which was, itself, used to spread a lie that left-wing or non-Caucasian protesters were dealt with more leniently than white protesters.
    The context for the above article is the Sentencing Council’s recently published guideline, Imposition of community and custodial sentences.
    The new guideline does not create a parallel justice system or exempt whole groups from punishment. Every offender, whether rich or poor, majority or minority, still faces sentencing based on the seriousness of the offence and their individual circumstances. What the guideline seeks to do is ensure consistency in how certain mitigating factors are considered – so that two defendants guilty of similar conduct receive similar treatment, rather than outcomes varying wildly because one judge considered the defendant’s background and another did not. Far from undermining equality, the Council explicitly states “the purpose of the guidance is to ensure a consistency of approach across all courts.”
    Labour was so appalled by this that it introduced the extremely short Sentencing Guidelines Bill to nobble it, the key sentence of which is:
    But sentencing guidelines about pre-sentence reports may not include provision framed by reference to different personal characteristics of an offender.
    The key word being "not", and where "personal characteristics" include, in particular: race; religion or belief; cultural background. In response to this, the Sentencing Council suspended introduction of the guideline.

    Meanwhile, I suggest that if you rephrase "defence of the realm" as "protecting our borders", it becomes clearer that, amongst other concerns, this relates to the long-standing stance towards (or against) immigration. Plus nostalgia for other aspects of British life (presumably including eggs).

    One feature of the four issues is that they don't appear to involve much in the way of spending (plans or policies).
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    edited May 3
    It depends on how you cost them.

    Abandoning net zero policies may save money now but will incur significant costs later this century when the Earth becomes uninhabitable by humans. But they are probably planning to be dead or on Mars by the time that happens and don't care about future generations.

    Protecting our borders (aka reducing immigration) might be slightly cheaper than preparing for World War 3, but if they really want to do it they will need more Border Force staff and a lot of hi-tech equipment. And that's the hill that Sunak died on. I suppose they don't think it can happen to them.

    You'd think that we'd have learned our lesson after Johnson and Truss. Apparently not.

  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    With the exception of the Runcorn by-election, every Reform candidate elected on Thursday is elected to serve local communities either as Mayor or a councillor (even leader of councils). They won't have any choice but to respect UK legislation. Councils are (supposedly) under legal obligations to do their bit to address the climate emergency by cutting their own emissions and supporting their communities to cut emissions, not that many councils have the money to pay for expensive wasteful practices rather than save money by cutting emissions. They're required to maintain systems to ensure employment (hiring, firing, promoting) is done fairly, as does every other employer, and they'll be up in court very quickly if they don't maintain the HR staff to monitor their employment practices and train staff to overcome biases, as well as potentially not employing the most able staff when needed. Local government has no influence on migration legislation, they have obligations to find housing for those who need it including asylum seekers and refugees. I would be surprised if they can manage to balance budgets (also a legal requirement) if they fire council staff and contract out that work to private businesses who then skim profit off the top over and above employing the same number of people to do the same job to the same standard - or, retain local support if to maintain profit margins those private businesses don't do as good a job (though, of course, many council services have already been contracted out to private businesses, and saving money and improving services would need a reversal of those measures and bringing services back into councils).
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    So bigotry, climate denial and a big army. I’d be interested to know what they mean by a two tier justice system as there is an outside chance I’d agree with them on that.

    His personal gripes are that the woman who threw a milkshake at him didn't get a severe enough sentence, and that the police should go in harder vs things like the BLM marches.

    Oh well, I did say it was an outside chance - I was thinking more in terms of one law for those who are not dependent on legal aid etc ...

    As far as I can tell, Farage and Co. really started in with the "two-tiered justice" whine after the anti-migrant riots that had erupted following the murders at the Taylor Swift dance party. They claimed the police were ignoring due process in order to fast-track the prosecutions.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    Councils are (supposedly) under legal obligations to do their bit to address the climate emergency by cutting their own emissions and supporting their communities to cut emissions, not that many councils have the money to pay for expensive wasteful practices rather than save money by cutting emissions.

    Whilst this is all true, I think it would be a bad idea to pin ones hope on enforcement.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Hence my parenthetical 'supposedly'.
  • The_RivThe_Riv Shipmate
    From The New Statesman, an article detailing the continuing decline of The Conservative Party:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2025/05/inside-the-conservative-partys-existential-spiral

  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    And, now Patriotic Alternative (who make Yaxley-Lennon seem like a decent bloke) have been out campaigning for Reform in the local by-election, producing some truly vile racist banners to display around the pleasant little town of Stonehouse. The Reform candidate (a councillor who was elected as a Tory) has been trying to out do them in his videos, which have been very professionally produced including managing to walk the line of what's legal (or, at least what's not so obviously illegal that anyone's going to bother with criminal proceedings).

    As far as this by-election goes, Reform are fast becoming a proper threat to the safety of other candidates and their campaign teams. And, the national media are still talking them up and giving them plenty of free publicity.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    So bigotry, climate denial and a big army. I’d be interested to know what they mean by a two tier justice system as there is an outside chance I’d agree with them on that.

    His personal gripes are that the woman who threw a milkshake at him didn't get a severe enough sentence, and that the police should go in harder vs things like the BLM marches.

    Oh well, I did say it was an outside chance - I was thinking more in terms of one law for those who are not dependent on legal aid etc ...

    As far as I can tell, Farage and Co. really started in with the "two-tiered justice" whine after the anti-migrant riots that had erupted following the murders at the Taylor Swift dance party. They claimed the police were ignoring due process in order to fast-track the prosecutions.
    Defendants were only fast tracked because they pleaded guilty. Due process was not ignored.
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