Oz Election 2025
stonespring
Shipmate
in Purgatory
There’s been some discussion in the Australia-NZ thread in All Saints, but I thought there should be a purgatorial thread about the election this Saturday.
I can’t vote there and I won’t be there for my annual visit until May 19, but I am following the election as closely as I can, although primarily through the ABC, which means I may be in a bit of a media bubble.
What do Aussies think about the campaign and what results do you expect? Will we see more or fewer Teals and Community Independents elected? Will the Greens keep their seats around Brisbane?
Will One Nation’s willingness (after a long time) to preference the Coalition over Labour in quite a few seats (especially in Queensland), have a significant effect? If this was done with some kind of blessing from the Coalition, does this signal that the Coalition has shifted even further to the right than many had thought?
Can someone please explain who votes for Clive Palmer’s parties and why? Why haven’t Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson not tried working together, as this would maximize the chance that a populist party might become as influential as the Greens are? (As frightening as that possibility might be…)
Is there a shy right-wing vote that the polls haven’t detected, coupled with a general frustration over cost of living, that could result, if not in a Coalition Victory, perhaps in a hung parliament much more unstable than the relatively effective (in terms of quantity of legislation passed) hung parliament that Gillard governed with?
Is Australia’s growing population of migrant background, at least those who are middle class and wealthier, becoming more conservative in response to the increased cost of living and the perceived pressure (real or not) on housing prices from post-Covid migration burst?
What other major trends of this election are people noticing?
I can’t vote there and I won’t be there for my annual visit until May 19, but I am following the election as closely as I can, although primarily through the ABC, which means I may be in a bit of a media bubble.
What do Aussies think about the campaign and what results do you expect? Will we see more or fewer Teals and Community Independents elected? Will the Greens keep their seats around Brisbane?
Will One Nation’s willingness (after a long time) to preference the Coalition over Labour in quite a few seats (especially in Queensland), have a significant effect? If this was done with some kind of blessing from the Coalition, does this signal that the Coalition has shifted even further to the right than many had thought?
Can someone please explain who votes for Clive Palmer’s parties and why? Why haven’t Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson not tried working together, as this would maximize the chance that a populist party might become as influential as the Greens are? (As frightening as that possibility might be…)
Is there a shy right-wing vote that the polls haven’t detected, coupled with a general frustration over cost of living, that could result, if not in a Coalition Victory, perhaps in a hung parliament much more unstable than the relatively effective (in terms of quantity of legislation passed) hung parliament that Gillard governed with?
Is Australia’s growing population of migrant background, at least those who are middle class and wealthier, becoming more conservative in response to the increased cost of living and the perceived pressure (real or not) on housing prices from post-Covid migration burst?
What other major trends of this election are people noticing?
Comments
The husband and I tend more to the left and these days I’m more likely to vote for an Independent that for a major party candidate. I’m not impressed with our local member at all, but the seat I currently live in has been Labor since its establishment, so can’t see it changing any time soon. We have a very impressive Independent in one of our Senate spots and I anticipate that they will be returned and perhaps they will increase their individual vote.
I have two voters under 35 in my family; one female will have looked at all candidates and checked them out thoroughly before voting. The other, younger, and male says, “I just can’t stand listening to politicians”, they have seen in their social media feed a lot of ads from Mr Palmer’s TOP party, each time he sees the ads he says eff off to his screen. So, I guess he won’t be voting that way. I did sit with him a few days ago and showed him the ABC election website with it’s links to all candidates’ websites, but I doubt he will look at them. A few days after the election I might sound him out, but not before the election as I don’t want him to think I’m trying to direct his vote in a particular direction. I also made sure he understands about the difference between the HOR and the Senate and what to expect to see on his paper when he goes into the ballot box. We watched an AEC video about voting for the Senate, the contents of which I hope he will remember. I did remind him that if he spoils his ballot paper, he can ask for a new one at the desk and to read the instructions carefully Again, I had to re-iterate that he doesn’t vote for the PM, his vote is about the best representative for our electorate. I think I’ve done all I can to make sure he understands the process. Daughter will have done all this off her own bat without my involvement.
Interestingly our son’s girlfriend’s family leans quite conservative and her Dad is from the ivermectin works for covid camp, so we are quite different to them. I was shocked to see that they are quietly supportive of PHON when we had a shared social event. Totally shocking to me!!!!
Personally, I have thought Mr Dutton’s slogan “back on track” to be quite triggering. Which track? Back on track? Back for whom? In my mind it’s a call to return to the era of pre-1970’s. A big fat raspberry to him. I hope there are more community independents elected because I think the system does need disrupting by thoughtful people. Like her or not, I love Jacqui Lambie and her absolute inability to behave like a politician. She is who she is, like her or not and I respect that, as do many of my friends. I don’t know if it’s all being in the cranky 55+ female cohort, but even those I suspect would not vote for her (we are not in the right jurisdiction), still like her outspoken-ness.
I do worry that there is a core of voters for whom PHON and Mr Palmer’s TOP appeal. They are a small and mostly not vocal constituency, I’d love to know whether their vote amongst younger voters is growing and if so in which geographic areas and demographics. I’m very interested to see how the new migrant groups might vote. I have noticed the changing face of Australian politics, and I think it’s a necessary thing, but I wonder if a sense of gratitude in being able to resettle and have a comfortable life makes people less progressive (or not).
I haven’t been following the campaign closely in the media (because it annoys me so much), I see a lot of chat on X complaining about media bias towards LNP, but I hear comments on the radio talkback (local ABC) complaining about bias towards Labor, so it’s very mixed and I haven’t watched any of the election debates, nor the Press Club speeches. I’m a bit over all the spin in all honestly. I did enjoy last night’s episode of Gruen and their discussion around the election and election advertisements.
I also watched last night’s episode of Planet America and they were looking at Trump’s satisfaction statistics and his unpopularity with 29-35’s (I think) was interesting, and I wonder how the Milleniums and Gen Z will influence this Oz election and whether their attitudes will influence the make-up of the new Parliament here. You might be able to view those episodes on ABC eye voo when you visit.
The article also demonstrated why, if you're going to resort to "no comment", you should start off with "no comment".
It's kind of telling to go from a blanket denial to "no comment", especially when there's video.
Also, I learned that Peter Dutton is referred to as "Temu Trump".
I can confirm I've seen that reference to Peter Dutton on social media.
I recently saw a couple of posts on the former bird app reminding people about the treatment of refugees under the Coalition (Lib/LNP), in particular one family with small children. I thought the timing of this was particularly clever in bringing it to the forefront of people's minds. We can all have short memories at times!
I'm sorry, but what is your last sentence refering to? Who is being asked to express an opinion about other candidates? Are you refering to ranked voting?
I'm sorry, but what does your last sentence mean? Who is being asked to express an opinion about other candidates? Are you refering to ranked voting?
Time to remind/inform non-Aussies that the Liberal Party in Australia is a misleadingly named ILLIBERAL Party, firmly right wing. And getting righter-winger with succeeding leaders. John Howard started the rot. Abbott continued it. Turnbull tried to pull them back to their more balanced roots. Morrison was a bit of an aberration, in that he's not doctrinally right wing, he's not doctrinally anything, he's just absolutely amoral and immoral. Now Dutton is trying to outTrump Trump, allied with a very unsavoury One Nation Party. The ACCC (our supposed monopolies and Fair Trading policeman) should force them to change their name.
In the interests of transparency, I'm on booth duty with The Australian Labor (sic) Party tomorrow, handing out How to Vote cards. A hopeless task in this particular North Queensland electorate.
But just as I tipped Mark Carney months ago to win the Canadian Liberal leadership election and an ensuing General Election, so I tip Albanese's ALP to win majority government tomorrow. Ah, some purist will say, votes are for a local candidate and a party, not its Leader. Rubbish. That is the theory and the convention, but not the practice of what's going on in a voter's head as they number their boxes.
And if the ALP happen to not quite make majority government in their own right, I would prefer them to do a coalition deal with Independents, so-called Teals (messy, because it will be a one-by-one negotiation), rather than Greens, who are nutjobs by any measure.
Late to the party, and yes, ranked voting especially Senate ballot paper. It can be a right pain deciding which arsehole nutjob candidate to place last.
I live on the extreme edge of Wentworth ( traditionally rusted-on Liberal) but current member is a teal of impeccable Lib antecedents. Across the road is Sydney which is deadset safe ALP. I’ll go to vote at Darlo Public tomorrow, run the gauntlet of various people handing out how to votes and will reward myself with a snag sanger afterwards.
Outcome for Wentworth will be interesting I think: current teal may hang onto the seat but I suspect with a reduced majority as the Lib candidate has strong local. credentials. There is a Labor candidate and good on him for running even though he hasn’t a hope in Hades.
Agree likely most teals will hang onto seats. Greens worse than useless.
Dutton has made a complete ass of himself as usual,and people have not forgotten his time running Home Affairs.
Albo could have done better but hope Labor is returned and he can redeem himself.
Ah well we’ll know by dinnertime tomorrow. Just hope not a rehash of 2019.
On more serious matters the atmosphere at the polling booth was friendly, I saw people I hadn't seen in ages, and the electoral commission had done its usual excellent job - efficient, polite and totally impartial - in administering the poll. This is one thing we in Aus definitely need to be thankful for.
It's a bit of a foregone conclusion in Fenner for the House of Representatives (commons) - our local Labor guy is well-liked and will probably get 50% of first preferences, so there will not need to be a redistribution of preferences. This is fairly unusual; preferences normally matter. He's been helped by the fact that Dutton has said he will sack 40,000 public servants, mainly from Canberra. The poor Liberal guy giving out how-to-vote cards looked pretty woebegone - Dutton wants to decimate the town and then is asking for electoral support!! No Palmer party or One Nation candidates here, not even for the Senate - they've given up on the ACT. Last time Palmer had billboards and ads everywhere and then got about 1.5%.
Warriors v Cowboys 🇳🇿 🤠 🤠 🏉 will keep me diverted while we wait for The Blessèd Antony Green to prophesy.
We had an episcopal elector, the Bishop visited. By voting, he was affirming St Paul in Romans 13:1-7. By encouraging the church ladies who seized the polling day to sell their sausagey, second-hand booky, and house-plantey wares to aid parish funds, he heeded the apostle's exhortation in 1 Thessalonians 5:11. A true Barnabas, "Son of Encouragement" 😊
Polls close in 45 minutes.
I realise that this is a necessary part of the process, but I wished they had an express lane for people who wanted to be in and out and did not need the ballot papers explained to them. The lines were moving at snail's pace, but I know that making sure people understand the correct way to complete the form is important. The man possibly thought I was a bit rude, but I said we didn't need the chat as we'd watched the videos on the AEC website.
Kids were happy with their sausage sizzles and we headed home.
I'm now watching coverage on Aunty and so we wait ....
I'm pretty sure there will not be any Liberals elected in my jurisdiction.
@Cheery Gardener don’t be hard on polling booth staff. I’ve done the job and quite a lot of people do need that detailed instruction. If Cheery son needs a quieter time usually there’s a slower patch between about 3pm and 5pm. Although sausages are usually gone by then.
JNP talking about mud-slinging by media after promoting ignorance in the referendum.
Meanwhile we spent a very happy afternoon at the first birthday party of our lovely great-nephew.
I was shocked that Antony Green called it so early, what an election for him to out on!! I think he's been doing elections since I began voting, and he is just gold! I feel sorry for Casey as he's a hard act to follow!
@WITG, I have sympathy for the electoral staff, it's a one day job, they have instructions they have to follow and I appreciate that many people do need those. Just the lack of options for a speed queue I thought was poor. I do think that reducing the number of informal votes overall is a good thing to work towards though, getting all the votes in a state that they count is important for the democratic process.
I really regretted not going at the crack of dawn (we'd promised Cheery daughter she could come with us, I'll probably not do that again). Because of Cheery son, we did go after lunch as I thought I wanted to miss both the run of early people before work and those going at the last minute after finishing work though I think I might try waltzing it at 5.45 next time just for the experience and to suss out how many people do turn up that late in the day.
Many many years ago I worked on a local council election because a work colleague told me that "the money was really good". I realised after doing it once, that no amount of money would get me up for an 8am start and an 8pm finish and losing a full day of my weekend. I was so tired I ordered a takeaway dinner and then the delivery guy didn't come!! It remains in my memory as one of my most regretful life experiences.
I thought JNPs offering particularly awful.
Sorry, I was late coming back to this thread. In elections here, various means of indicating preferences between candidates are employed, and are a compulsory part of voting. I'm questioning the need to indicate any preference beyond your first. I agree with making that possibility available, but why is it compulsory?
But given how much of Labor’s victory is due to preference flows from minor parties and independents, is Labor really winning because people are voting for or against one of the two major parties? Or are they winning because people are increasingly voting for parties and candidates they’ve never voted for before, and these same voters (with the possible exception of most Greens voters) may not be expressing strong views in which of the two major parties they rank above the other further down in their preferences?
The US news will cover this as a vote to bolster an incumbent against Trump, as in Canada, and a reaction against any rhetoric that sounds Trumpy, but I’m not sure that is the whole story.
Is it likely that, unless something major changes with the cost of living crisis, there is likely to be a large swing against Labor for being the incumbent government next election, once people get more desensitized to the chaos of Trump’s presidency?
Don’t think anyone here in Oz will be desenstised against the Trump regime given the knock-on effects outside of the US
I was thrilled to see Anthony Green being acknowledged at the end of Aunty's coverage, he deserved that. And I do think that MOAD would love to have his tie!!