And, polls suggest that if Scotland was to vote again, that the current generation would narrowly vote to leave the UK. It's almost certain that in May Scotland will vote for a majority of MSPs from pro-independence parties, for the second time since the 2014 referendum (currently 67/129, 52% - most recent polling 73/129, 56%). With support for maintaining the Union below 50%, it's difficult to imagine support for ending devolution being very much at all ... though I'm not aware of any pollsters putting that question to people.
Yes, well the vote to leave the EU was such an omni-shambles that it crossed the line into anti-democratic. It certainly should not be held up as a precedent for how to run a democratically valid referendum - indeed, it stands as a lesson to the world on how NOT to run a democratically valid referendum. The UK government screwed up royally in holding that vote (because the normal processes of UK democracy, having a party in favour of leaving the UK getting enough votes to be in government, had not been met there was no basis for the government to overrule the will of the people expressed at the general election by holding a referendum on something no one in government wanted - much less to do that in such as piss-poor manner that the question put to the people had no meaning as it wasn't backed by any form of manifesto from those wanting to leave the EU to describe in detail what that would mean), even more so by not accepting it as purely advisory. The EU threw the Brexiteers a massive bone by accepting the Article 50 letter, on the basis that that letter needed to be backed up by a democratic decision of the people that was clearly absent.
That the outcome of that demolition of democracy was then forced on Scotland that had repeated voted to remain within the EU was more than enough to show that the situation in 2020 is totally different from 2014 that a chance for the people of Scotland to have their say again is more than warranted; it's another generation and thus the "once in a generation" criteria is satisfied. 2021 saw Parliamentary elections returning a clear majority of MSPs in favour of independence; if 2015 returning a handful of MPs in favour of leaving the EU was sufficient to run a cart and horses through democratic processes to force a decision on the nation without clear democratic support for that, then a majority of MSPs really should have been enough for a proper democratic exercise through a second referendum on independence. This May, that pro-indy majority is almost certain to increase, making that argument even stronger.
I agree the Brexit vote was a shambles. I voted to stay. It is still true that Scotland has not had another vote. I stating fact, not making a political comment. If there is a taste for another vote go ahead. I was answering your point about the original vote to join the Common Market.
I have to say - if I were Scots - I am not sure I would see now as the best time to leave without a cast iron guarantee of a place in a defensive alliance and/or trade bloc. A fully independent Greenland would have been taken by the US by now.
Why do you think it wouldn't be in the EU and NATO? Or that an independent Greenland wouldn't be?
NATO member Iceland is about to hold a referendum on negotiations to join the EU. Why would they be accepted ( they seceded fully from Denmark in 1944) and a legally- seceded Scotland wouldn't? And why, given our strategic importance do you think NATO or whatever succeeds it would turn us down?
While Reform have made inroads in Scotland- they are still a good chunk below what they are in England. Our biggest danger is still the English electorate voting for Brexity Trumpist fascists and appeasers thereof, and refusing PR-type electoral systems - thanks to that we're not in the EU and if Farage gets in we will all be in Trump/Putin's pocket. NATO membership won't be worth anything with a prime minister who does our enemies' bidding willingly.
I think Spain is anxious about separatists and might hold up EU membership for that reason. My point being, I’d want the guarantees before leaving not after. On current form, Trump might decide he wants ownership of places where he owns property.
Sorry but that is one of the oldest most outdated unionist canards in the book.
David Cameron's right-wing EU ally Barroso (who used to conveniently go on about this despite being Portuguese) is long retired. Spain's position for years has been that they won't veto an independent Scotland which has seceded legally
'Spain would not oppose future independent Scotland rejoining EU - minister | Reuters'
A YouGov Survey found that a majority of Europeans across Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain favour an independent Scotland being allowed to join the European Union.
Support for an independent Scotland's EU membership ranged from 63 per cent to 75 per cent among the surveyed European nations
And Scottish post Brexit diplomacy in Brussels established that we would be welcome to rejoin provided we seceded legally.
Democratic decisions of our parliament are currently vetoed right now by Westminster under Section 35 - that's why Scottish trans people cant have human rights we have voted for them to have, that's why we couldn't even have a blinking bottle recycling scheme and England's stampede towards the Trumpist far right is already affecting us through not just the threat of Reform but directly through their appeasers - the UK Labour and Conservative parties.
Thanks but I'm really happy with not bothering too much about reheated David Cameron style scaremongering about Spain. We're far more likely to end up in Trump world through Starmer's appeasement than Scottish independence.
I think you are being optimistic. You would have thought accession to NATO for Sweden and Finland would have been rapid given Putin’s aggression, and in the scheme of things it was really, but but still year from application for one and two years for the other. Despite that there was wide support and all the rest of it - another member of the alliance still decided to play silly buggers about its own issues.
In ordinary circumstances, one would say having to wait six months or a year to iron out the fine detail would not be a problem. But the speed at which Trump fucks about is such that you would want ink dry on the agreement that at the stroke of midnight that Scotland became independent, it became part of NATO and ideally also the EU. (FYI I support the right of Scotland to secede if it wants to.)
The speed at which Trump fucks about means nobody is safe whether they're nuclear armed, in NATO or in the EU. The English electorate and their highly Atlanticist leaders made us less safe by taking us out the EU and cosying up to Trump looking for trade deals so they dont now get to lecture us on 'never letting go of nurse' - we held onto nurse, turns out she's blinking dangerous. There's highly unlikely to be another referendum because of the authoritarianism of the current English parties in power but if there were, people could figure out the timings on things like defence/ EU interim agreements as it isn't in England's interests either to suddenly lose vital strategic cover to the North.
I think Scotland has a better claim to be a democracy than England. The system for electing MSPs gives a much better representation of the electorate's political views than the stupid outdated FPTP system we're stuck with in England.
I hope this will actually weaken them. They can hardly claim to be the alternative to the two traditional major parties when they're all ex-Tories.
No surprise.
I am still saying that Reform support will have dwindle substantially before the next election. Much I don’t like Starmer etc they have laid some good ground. This is set to kick in at an appropriate moment.
Also as people see what Reform in power look like (councils etc) they are pulling back support. Call me optimistic but I stand by it.
I heard Braverman on World at One. She sounded like a giddy schoolgirl who had just done something slightly naughty.
I'm with @Hugal on this one. The main appeal of Reform was that it was new and untried. Now it looks more and more like the Tory party dressed up in turquoise rather than royal blue I think fewer people will be interested.
Certainly our Reform County Council hasn't done all that it promised apart from splish £85,000 on flags on all the main roads in the area. People would rather the money was spent on mending potholes, specially after an elderly lady died in the county when her walker got caught in one.
I wouldn't set much stock by that - good for a laugh though it is. The function rooms in question are only a few hundred yards from the constituency boundary - not like he did a Wrong Newcastle sort of thing. People inclined to vote Reform won't be phased by it.
Londoncentric ( journalist Jim Waterson's substack) uncovered an account going under the name Reform_UK_2025 getting millions of views on TikTok by doing faked videos riling up hate about people it falsely labelled 'illegal migrants' which were boosted by the algorithm there. It wasn't a genuine Reform account either to be clear - it was just pirating their badging
The perpetrator was using his access to private lets as he worked for an estate agent to provide footage which he then added scripts full of lies to - aided by AI.
Apparently it was the ability to monetise this content that encouraged the scam.
Last summer, the man says, he found himself sitting in his car, analysing trends on TikTok. His day job was conducting viewings for an estate agency but he was trying to come up with an idea for a viral video account that could be run as a money-making side-hustle.
“I was thinking of unique videos I can do for people,” he says on the tape.
That’s when he had a brainwave: “Hate brings views.”
At that time protests outside asylum hotels were spreading across the country. The man says he noticed “far-right people” were among the most engaged on TikTok. They were easy to rile up: “They hate such videos of illegal migrants. I was like, why not?”
Reform weren't behind it but it's a sad example of how their vote can be driven up and that there aren't sufficient safeguards to stop this happening - the culprit supposedly claimed he thought it was all fine as it passed TikToks moderation and wasn't downgraded or taken down.
It's like a kind of arms race between fake content online and people who cant see through it and realise they are being had. I dont think we have the right electoral or media regulation law or enforcement of the laws we have to stop voters being misinformed like this and I really fear for the damage it does.
I've mentioned before we have an elderly relative who doesn't understand the fakery he is seeing in YouTube videos which aim to stir up racial hatred with falsely labelled footage.
There isnt either the resources or the time and airspace for reputable journalists to debunk every video and even if they did the debunking wouldn't reach many of the people who viewed the fakes and the deceived viewers still vote.
I just really dont know what we can best do to stop or limit it. It needs some kind of massive well-funded national public information campaign reaching as many voters as possible but because of the two big parties that profit from the voter misinformation I cant see how that wouldn't be opposed and labelled as partisan propaganda.
Its also noticeable how it's small independent media checking this fraud and running stories on it - minnows swimming against lavishly funded algorithmic hate machines.
It's definitely a thing Louise. X recently forced accounts to identify their basic geographical location and found a huge number of accounts that were nowhere near their purported origin.
Fake accounts abound and try influence geopolitics too.
It's definitely a thing Louise. X recently forced accounts to identify their basic geographical location and found a huge number of accounts that were nowhere near their purported origin.
With the caveat lots of people now use VPNs routinely and the locations are most likely based on IP addresses. Even if I'm not using a VPN my IP address will often put me at the other end of the country due to how the 4G network connects to the wider internet.
Fake accounts abound and try influence geopolitics too.
Though their primary aim may vary. In may cases the aim is to make money and the influence on politics or society is secondary or even an afterthought.
Whether they will remain a threat by the next General Election remains to be seen.
I know Lib Dems who believe they will split the right-wing vote in a way that will favour them and make the Lib Dems the main opposition party.
I'm not so sure about that.
There could yet be a Tory/Reform coalition on the right, although I consider that a remote possibility.
Labour is in disarray but may yet get its act together. If and when Starmer goes it's unclear whether his replacement would fare any better, but with a second-wind they may recover some lost ground.
Whatever the case, Reform have certainly become the Even Nastier Party to the Tory's Nasty Party.
A group of Lib Dems I know in a nearby constituency were having a convivial social in a pub recently when a group of Reform folk overheard their conversation.
One of the Reformistas, a local councillor, came over to their table, interrupted their conversation and harangued them.
By all accounts one of the group politely but firmly put her in her place.
Were I still involved in local or regional politics I'd like to think that we're I to become away of members of a different political party sat nearby in a pub, I'd either leave them alone to continue their conversation undisturbed or else introduce myself politely and engage them in good-natured banter.
If they were Reform I think I'd take myself off elsewhere rather than say something I might regret.
I am allergic to Reform. They bring me out in spots.
Comments
On the basis that we would remain in the EU. A lot has changed in 11 years, and Farage as PM would push a lot of people to Yes.
There was a vote on leaving the EU that the then government said it would uphold. Scotland has not had a second vote yet.
That the outcome of that demolition of democracy was then forced on Scotland that had repeated voted to remain within the EU was more than enough to show that the situation in 2020 is totally different from 2014 that a chance for the people of Scotland to have their say again is more than warranted; it's another generation and thus the "once in a generation" criteria is satisfied. 2021 saw Parliamentary elections returning a clear majority of MSPs in favour of independence; if 2015 returning a handful of MPs in favour of leaving the EU was sufficient to run a cart and horses through democratic processes to force a decision on the nation without clear democratic support for that, then a majority of MSPs really should have been enough for a proper democratic exercise through a second referendum on independence. This May, that pro-indy majority is almost certain to increase, making that argument even stronger.
Would if we could. The problem is that a referendum is in the gift of the control freak in No 10.
NATO member Iceland is about to hold a referendum on negotiations to join the EU. Why would they be accepted ( they seceded fully from Denmark in 1944) and a legally- seceded Scotland wouldn't? And why, given our strategic importance do you think NATO or whatever succeeds it would turn us down?
While Reform have made inroads in Scotland- they are still a good chunk below what they are in England. Our biggest danger is still the English electorate voting for Brexity Trumpist fascists and appeasers thereof, and refusing PR-type electoral systems - thanks to that we're not in the EU and if Farage gets in we will all be in Trump/Putin's pocket. NATO membership won't be worth anything with a prime minister who does our enemies' bidding willingly.
David Cameron's right-wing EU ally Barroso (who used to conveniently go on about this despite being Portuguese) is long retired. Spain's position for years has been that they won't veto an independent Scotland which has seceded legally
'Spain would not oppose future independent Scotland rejoining EU - minister | Reuters'
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/spain-would-not-oppose-future-independent-scotland-rejoining-eu-minister-idUSKCN1NP25O/
The majority of the Spanish public also back Scotland rejoining in a recent poll
https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/europe-independent-scotland-poll-uk-b2789205.html
And Scottish post Brexit diplomacy in Brussels established that we would be welcome to rejoin provided we seceded legally.
Democratic decisions of our parliament are currently vetoed right now by Westminster under Section 35 - that's why Scottish trans people cant have human rights we have voted for them to have, that's why we couldn't even have a blinking bottle recycling scheme and England's stampede towards the Trumpist far right is already affecting us through not just the threat of Reform but directly through their appeasers - the UK Labour and Conservative parties.
Thanks but I'm really happy with not bothering too much about reheated David Cameron style scaremongering about Spain. We're far more likely to end up in Trump world through Starmer's appeasement than Scottish independence.
In ordinary circumstances, one would say having to wait six months or a year to iron out the fine detail would not be a problem. But the speed at which Trump fucks about is such that you would want ink dry on the agreement that at the stroke of midnight that Scotland became independent, it became part of NATO and ideally also the EU. (FYI I support the right of Scotland to secede if it wants to.)
I hope this will actually weaken them. They can hardly claim to be the alternative to the two traditional major parties when they're all ex-Tories.
No surprise.
I am still saying that Reform support will have dwindle substantially before the next election. Much I don’t like Starmer etc they have laid some good ground. This is set to kick in at an appropriate moment.
Also as people see what Reform in power look like (councils etc) they are pulling back support. Call me optimistic but I stand by it.
I'm with @Hugal on this one. The main appeal of Reform was that it was new and untried. Now it looks more and more like the Tory party dressed up in turquoise rather than royal blue I think fewer people will be interested.
Certainly our Reform County Council hasn't done all that it promised apart from splish £85,000 on flags on all the main roads in the area. People would rather the money was spent on mending potholes, specially after an elderly lady died in the county when her walker got caught in one.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/27/matthew-goodwin-gorton-and-denton-reform-uk-minorities
If they aren't idiots they are almost certainly racists, grifters, or both.
Maybe 30p only got him that far?
The perpetrator was using his access to private lets as he worked for an estate agent to provide footage which he then added scripts full of lies to - aided by AI.
Apparently it was the ability to monetise this content that encouraged the scam.
Reform weren't behind it but it's a sad example of how their vote can be driven up and that there aren't sufficient safeguards to stop this happening - the culprit supposedly claimed he thought it was all fine as it passed TikToks moderation and wasn't downgraded or taken down.
It's like a kind of arms race between fake content online and people who cant see through it and realise they are being had. I dont think we have the right electoral or media regulation law or enforcement of the laws we have to stop voters being misinformed like this and I really fear for the damage it does.
I've mentioned before we have an elderly relative who doesn't understand the fakery he is seeing in YouTube videos which aim to stir up racial hatred with falsely labelled footage.
There isnt either the resources or the time and airspace for reputable journalists to debunk every video and even if they did the debunking wouldn't reach many of the people who viewed the fakes and the deceived viewers still vote.
I just really dont know what we can best do to stop or limit it. It needs some kind of massive well-funded national public information campaign reaching as many voters as possible but because of the two big parties that profit from the voter misinformation I cant see how that wouldn't be opposed and labelled as partisan propaganda.
Its also noticeable how it's small independent media checking this fraud and running stories on it - minnows swimming against lavishly funded algorithmic hate machines.
Fake accounts abound and try influence geopolitics too.
With the caveat lots of people now use VPNs routinely and the locations are most likely based on IP addresses. Even if I'm not using a VPN my IP address will often put me at the other end of the country due to how the 4G network connects to the wider internet.
Though their primary aim may vary. In may cases the aim is to make money and the influence on politics or society is secondary or even an afterthought.
I know Lib Dems who believe they will split the right-wing vote in a way that will favour them and make the Lib Dems the main opposition party.
I'm not so sure about that.
There could yet be a Tory/Reform coalition on the right, although I consider that a remote possibility.
Labour is in disarray but may yet get its act together. If and when Starmer goes it's unclear whether his replacement would fare any better, but with a second-wind they may recover some lost ground.
Whatever the case, Reform have certainly become the Even Nastier Party to the Tory's Nasty Party.
A group of Lib Dems I know in a nearby constituency were having a convivial social in a pub recently when a group of Reform folk overheard their conversation.
One of the Reformistas, a local councillor, came over to their table, interrupted their conversation and harangued them.
By all accounts one of the group politely but firmly put her in her place.
Were I still involved in local or regional politics I'd like to think that we're I to become away of members of a different political party sat nearby in a pub, I'd either leave them alone to continue their conversation undisturbed or else introduce myself politely and engage them in good-natured banter.
If they were Reform I think I'd take myself off elsewhere rather than say something I might regret.
I am allergic to Reform. They bring me out in spots.
I think you need to advise them to tip their dealer; no way do they want to lose access to stuff that good.
I did say I wasn't convinced...
Mind you, it might explain why they want to legalise the stuff ...
It does make me wonder what Labour have been on since they were elected, though ...
Just say No to dailemale.
Starmer's survived today's coup attempt. Will he survive another?
You have to get behind someone in order to stab them in the back.