Today I have been coaching our pastor how to video stream services all day.
Pretty quick on the uptake is he/she?
He has never had to do it before. I have been in charge of media services at church for 10 years, but I am not going to be around 24/7. Eventually, I will have to step down, so he just wants to make sure the congregation can carry on without me.
However, the more useful function of cancelling [sports events] is about not pulling policing, healthcare and other public resources to support the event.
Which is the reason given by the government to cancel events with crowds of 500+ people.
When it comes to media services, I am more fly by the seat of my pants--if there is a glitch, I deal with it. Pastor is more detailed oriented. He wants to make sure there are no glitches. (There will be, no doubt, especially through this transition phase).
The UK government at this time does not believe there's just under 600 cases of covid19 in the UK for example, they believe there are thousands. That will be based on what they know about spread patterns, the R figure etc based on all available sources of data not just what is happening in the UK.
This rather undermines the BBC graph you linked to. If there are thousands of cases in the UK, it puts us very much closer to Italy.
No it doesn't, both lines on the graph are confirmed cases - and by extension will have a shadow of many more - milder - untested cases.
Without trying to be a dick about this, at that point everything depends on your testing regime. If (like S Korea) you have a mass testing regime, you're going to pull up many more confirmed cases. If (like the US) you refuse to test, you're going to have very low confirmed cases.
If (like the UK) you test those who present themselves for testing and who meet the criteria, then you're clearly going to under-report the number of cases, but you won't know by how many. This is almost exactly unlike a survey.
If you test a larger sample, you'll have a smaller shadow of untested cases. So S Korea could assume that for each confirmed case they have y unconfirmed, whereas Britain might assume for each confirmed case they have 2y unconfirmed (on the basis of a model of infectiousness and spread). But the point about the graph is not the the absolute numbers of confirmed cases, its the the stepwise jump in Italy vs the curve on the UK graph.
UK testing was on people meeting x criteria related to transmission - to contain, then everyone with flu like illness in a set of specified areas - to track community transmission, then later - and now - anyone in a (free) hospital with a respiratory condition to manage risk and treatment in the healthcare system.
US testing appears to be non-contact led and non-random. So they will struggle to know if number in New York vs number in Montana is to do with relative levels of wealth and insurance coverage, relative availability of test kits being different between New York and Montana, or a difference in spread.
Using this formula it seems to appear China is all but flat now in new cases. The United States Reports swing wildly. Yesterday, it was up 26%, today, it is up 6%, but I am assuming it is because we are just so bad at this thing. Great Britain is up by 26% today. Italy has either stopped reporting cases or they had no new cases to report today. South Korea is also getting close to flat at 1%
However, the more useful function of cancelling [sports events] is about not pulling policing, healthcare and other public resources to support the event.
Which is the reason given by the government to cancel events with crowds of 500+ people.
And indeed shinty has now been cancelled 😕. For just that reason, even though it doesn’t apply to most matches, just the showpieces at the end of the season.
Surely if you want to know which country is worse affected, the number of deaths will tell you? On the assumption that all *fatal* cases will have been diagnosed.
Italy has 1000 fatalities versus 10 in thr UK, so Italy is 100 times worse affected.
Even if you say, well maybe the mortality rate is 3 times higher in Italy due to an older population, then that just means 1000 cases are 3 times less of a problem in the UK.
Here in New York City, we're in a state of emergency and the New York Public Library, for whom I work, is going to be closing for two weeks. We get Other Paid Leave for that time.
Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has updated it's corona guidelines.
Quite where we're supposed to find a well-ventilated sunlit place in which to store vestments, I have no idea, sunlight being in short supply here ....
At least we are approaching the equinox. I know you get none from November to January. I don't think it needs to be bright sunlight. The summer months you get quantity, even if not quality.
So far, social workers and therapists seem to be allowed anywhere; I’ve assessed three new people in their own homes this week (two of them elderly), done a hoisting reassessment with carers, been into the office, picked up items from the equipment stores, attended a leaving lunch and visited a care home twice (yesterday and today). I did ring to check all these appointments should be going ahead, but apparently that was fine.
I don’t have any symptoms of anything, but I don’t succumb to viruses easily (touch wood) and might be unwittingly spreading them...
He hasn't AFAIK curtailed his Home Communion (and other) visits.
This is a slightly different, and very real, challenge.
I don't intend to stop visiting inmates unless I'm prohibited from doing so or clearly in danger of being contagious.
Social distancing and avoiding 'mingling' is important in all this, but on the fact of it, that also appears to be the total opposite of what Church is all about... and there's a particular risk to front-line people of all kinds, with an associated risk of "decapitation".
Indeed. Those of us who are used to visiting folks in hospital, in isolation, for example with certain medical conditions, are used to conforming to medical-led instructions in how to do that as safely as possible. Possibly, because the Coronvavirus thin
Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has updated it's corona guidelines.
Quite where we're supposed to find a well-ventilated sunlit place in which to store vestments, I have no idea, sunlight being in short supply here ....
Yes - I kind of chortled at that one! I've decided we will do without Chasubles in that case. Stoles I can cope with at home - and the (say it softly) cassock-alb is easily washed.
I am struggling to get even one congregation-sized bottle of hand-sanitizer, however! Both on-line and in real life.
Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has updated it's corona guidelines.
Quite where we're supposed to find a well-ventilated sunlit place in which to store vestments, I have no idea, sunlight being in short supply here ....
WHO don’t talk about sunlight, but they do say UV lamps didn’t kill Coronavirus.
UV-C will kill some viruses, but AFAIK, it has not been proven against corona
Well, the Scottish Episcopal Church has updated it's corona guidelines.
Quite where we're supposed to find a well-ventilated sunlit place in which to store vestments, I have no idea, sunlight being in short supply here ....
Yes - I kind of chortled at that one! I've decided we will do without Chasubles in that case. Stoles I can cope with at home - and the (say it softly) cassock-alb is easily washed.
I am struggling to get even one congregation-sized bottle of hand-sanitizer, however! Both on-line and in real life.
It's not just chasubles, but if you follow the logic, it's also dalmatics and tunicles (yes, we run to the full Monty), and presumably also 4 x servers cassock, albs and amices will also require washing as they're up the sharp end. For each main Sunday service.
However we have an early service and the main service on a Sunday - we do have enough chasubles, but not enough space to segregate robes from the two services.
And the heavy wool cloaks the clergy wear when greeting folk outside (non-washable). And the choir dress and copes used at Evensong (kept in different cupboards to the Mass sets, but in the same room - the sacristy, also entered by assorted folk during the week.)
Mid-week Communions are (generally) >48hours apart, so no problem there. Though ensuring laundry compliance for six priests (mixture of stipendiary, non-stipendiary and retired)…. yeah, right.
It occurred to me that if we need to launder all servers robes as well we should just cut down to one individual who was both MC & Crucifer... But I suspect if I suggested that, the response might be that it would make the Baby Jesus cry.... And probably the same response if the suggestion were made to revert to stole & cass-alb only.
It's not that any of the guidelines are unreasonable in and of themselves, and I accept that as a Cathedral, it's a case of "First Church Problem". Myself, I don't care if we ditch chasuble etc etc, but I don' t imagine that would be a terribly common view point..... (I would be happy to be surprised on that one). And I'm one of the ones who is going to have to implement it/keep the clergy in order.....
Maybe clergy could purchase transparent plastic ponchos that could be worn over the chasuble and which could be easily cleaned between services?
Love it
Though you know (of) our higher heidyin clergy and Bishop Elect..... reckon it would pass?
Hmm... Fr Kelvin and Bishop Kevin? Don't know, I'm afraid. I think Bishop Kevin did leave the chasuble at home when he visited us, though he did wear cassock and alb.
"We should bear in mind that taking sensible precautions is not principally an act of self-protection, but primarily an action designed to protect others who are at risk in our congregation and our community. And we should continue to be open-hearted and attentive to the lonely, the vulnerable and the anxious, both within the church and beyond. Above all, we will face the future (which is always uncertain) with courage and faith in God.
Clean hands, open hearts!"
It looks like the government wants to show that its still in charge by banning public events after a bunch of different institutions took unilateral action.
Presumably the behavioral scientists being at the top of their game already predicted all this.
Just a quick note. My employer put out advice about the virus when a pandemic was declared via email. For some reason I am not on the list. I am trying not to take this as a hint...
However, the more useful function of cancelling [sports events] is about not pulling policing, healthcare and other public resources to support the event.
Which is the reason given by the government to cancel events with crowds of 500+ people.
Hmmm...here, the reason given is avoiding the chance of infection. With people crowded together, there's more chance that the virus might be transmitted.
Tomorrow there was to have been a memorial service for the one year anniversary of the shooting at two mosques here in Christchurch. I was quite concerned as thousands of people including a number from overseas were expected to be there. I wondered if the number of cases here would rise because of it. It has now been cancelled.
Today the 6th case of coronavirus in NZ was confirmed. So far most have been in Auckland (which makes sense as it is by far the largest city in NZ).
Nobody seems to have suggested closing Cook Strait (the stretch of water between the North and South Islands) though.
or closing State Highway 1.
To disrupt the spread of COVID19, all non-essential events over 100 people are not prohibited in SF.
At this rate, we'll eventually be limited to groups of 4 people at intersections, each standing at a different corner and yelling at the others.
(Which reminds me of a certain post-apocalyptic, time-travel episode of "Seaquest". I won't go into details; but if you saw it, you probably know which one I mean.)
To disrupt the spread of COVID19, all non-essential events over 100 people are not prohibited in SF.
At this rate, we'll eventually be limited to groups of 4 people at intersections, each standing at a different corner and yelling at the others.
(Which reminds me of a certain post-apocalyptic, time-travel episode of "Seaquest". I won't go into details; but if you saw it, you probably know which one I mean.)
Two churches we have dealings with. One has just cancelled everything, including Sunday worship, across the board till further notice. The other has decided that we should not "give in to a spirit of fear" and is carrying on with EVERYTHING, including a knitting club and a rummage sale, PLUS they have decided to open the building all day daily for anyone who wants to stop in and pray "in a worshipful atmosphere." Wanna guess which one is our host congregation?
I have just declined an invitation to sing in the Lenten choir (=7 occasions in very close quarters) on the grounds that we will be self-isolating (Mr Lamb had a close encounter today with a semi-symptomatic woman who was in Vietnam a month ago.)
The problem with testing prevalence is that you have to test asymptomatic people. Really you have to either test the whole population, or you have to extrapolate from a test of a sample of the population that represents the population (has the same % infected vs not). And how can you get such a sample?
Until that problem is solved, it's guesswork, and the fewer asymptomatic people are tested, the less trustworthy the guess.
Presumably the behavioral scientists being at the top of their game already predicted all this.
They literally did, and in the future they will close schools for a period too - government advisors have talked repeatedly about introducing measures sequentially.
They have also talked repeatedly about the need to have the public on board with the introduction of restrictions, a) e.g. there’d have been no public support for suspending the football season at the beginning of February b) once people start to volunteer to do something there is more chance that people will comply with the wider restriction.
Personally I have decided to not do any casual teaching, volunteer work or social or church activities at least for the next two weeks, quite likely longer. I'm not sure if the vacation care I work for in the holidays in two weeks time will go ahead. Sometimes school closures seem imminent in Victoria,Australia where I live, but no formal announcement has been made as yet and NSW is playing down the need for them with the argument school kids will spread the virus further if they are not in school. I don't drive and have to take public transport most places, so that has influenced my decision. I also have asthma and have been fighting off a non-contagious low level chest infection since January, which another round of antibiotics hasn't killed off (I will be back at the doctors Monday, but as I am nearly well I don't know if they will do anything) and both housemates have health issues and one just had surgery, plus the couple I do care work for also do. I will continue the 3 days a week care work as that is a less than 15 minute bus ride, but will have to give it up temporarily if I or the couple get the virus or cold or flu. Thankfully they can cope without me, though they are hoping I don't have to take time off. My agency is only ensuring care for clients who absolutely require it to stay alive if we all get quarantined.
I have also been trying to convince some FB friends in the UK who are involved in a healing ministry that praying at home and spending time with God or connecting with the internet are just as valid as large Pentecostal conferences and hands on street healing. Some of their friends have some really scary ideas that only people of little faith catch illnesses, but thankfully there are sensible voices chiming in too or I would be very worried there could be a repeat of the virus spreading through a church, like that cult in South Korea.
Edited to correct an error and the link! I accidentally put the 'Yes, Minister' clip again, as I copied it to share with my housemate who likes the show.
My anger with the Tories re covid, is that they have run down the nhs for a decade - so the overall capacity to cope with a surge in health demand is lower - rather than their approach to trying to manage the dynamics of that demand in the run up to the first and second peaks of the epidemic.
My anger with the Tories re covid, is that they have run down the nhs for a decade - so the overall capacity to cope with a surge in health demand is lower - rather than their approach to trying to manage the dynamics of that demand in the run up to the first and second peaks of the epidemic.
I agree totally.
But these are not normal times, even the best health services are being overwhelmed.
Re school closures, AIUI at least part of the rationale is that there is no way of getting children to observe the necessary hygiene rules. If you have one or two children at home you can make sure they wash their hands. A teacher can't hope to enforce hand washing for a class of 30 children.
It looks like the government wants to show that its still in charge by banning public events after a bunch of different institutions took unilateral action.
Presumably the behavioral scientists being at the top of their game already predicted all this.
Surely any response that is predicated on people doing stuff depends on behavioural science whether you believe in it or not?
Eta: AIUI suspending the Premier League is less about full stadiums and more about the unfairness of some teams having to play matches with half their players in isolation.
The NZ Prime Minister has announced today that, from Sunday onwards anyone flying into NZ must self-isolate for 14 days including New Zealanders returning from overseas. People from some small Pacific Islands where there is no Covid-19 may be excepted. No Cruise ships will be allowed either until at least the end of June.
From what she has said large gatherings may also be prohibited.
I think the extra measures are in part because the next few months here are the high season for the flu, and hospitals struggle to cope with the number of admissions, even with vaccinations being free for those with respiratory diseases or over 65. At present there are 6 confirmed cases of covid 19, but there are apparently a large number of people already self isolating so it is likely that there will be more not yet diagnosed.
She has also asked that people not make a run on the Supermarkets as goods will still be imported. It will be interesting to see how that works out.
My anger with the Tories re covid, is that they have run down the nhs for a decade - so the overall capacity to cope with a surge in health demand is lower - rather than their approach to trying to manage the dynamics of that demand in the run up to the first and second peaks of the epidemic.
I'm giving up on the Grauniad coverage as it looks to me that they are determined to politicise stuff that (for once) isn't political - e.g. today's headline says 'PM forced into U-turn' - AIUI if anyone has been 'forced' into a 'U-turn' it would be Patrick Vallence and John Whitty - but that would interfere with the narrative of 'public sector workers good, Tory politicians bad'.
My anger with the Tories re covid, is that they have run down the nhs for a decade - so the overall capacity to cope with a surge in health demand is lower - rather than their approach to trying to manage the dynamics of that demand in the run up to the first and second peaks of the epidemic.
I'm giving up on the Grauniad coverage as it looks to me that they are determined to politicise stuff that (for once) isn't political - e.g. today's headline says 'PM forced into U-turn' - AIUI if anyone has been 'forced' into a 'U-turn' it would be Patrick Vallence and John Whitty - but that would interfere with the narrative of 'public sector workers good, Tory politicians bad'.
The politicians are the ones making the decisions. They choose which advice to follow, and in fact guide what advice they are given by what priorities and goals they set (if you want another example of this, take a look at the work of the "independent" public sector pay review bodies). You can't "politicise" what is already by nature political. Mistrust of tory politicians in general and ABdPJ in particular is rational based on prior evidence. It is a U-turn, a screeching one, that indicates the PM is trying the avoid the appearance of fiddling while Rome burns and the organisers of major sporting events look responsible and cautious by comparison.
My anger with the Tories re covid, is that they have run down the nhs for a decade - so the overall capacity to cope with a surge in health demand is lower - rather than their approach to trying to manage the dynamics of that demand in the run up to the first and second peaks of the epidemic.
I'm giving up on the Grauniad coverage as it looks to me that they are determined to politicise stuff that (for once) isn't political - e.g. today's headline says 'PM forced into U-turn' - AIUI if anyone has been 'forced' into a 'U-turn' it would be Patrick Vallence and John Whitty - but that would interfere with the narrative of 'public sector workers good, Tory politicians bad'.
The politicians are the ones making the decisions. They choose which advice to follow, and in fact guide what advice they are given by what priorities and goals they set (if you want another example of this, take a look at the work of the "independent" public sector pay review bodies). You can't "politicise" what is already by nature political. Mistrust of tory politicians in general and ABdPJ in particular is rational based on prior evidence. It is a U-turn, a screeching one, that indicates the PM is trying the avoid the appearance of fiddling while Rome burns and the organisers of major sporting events look responsible and cautious by comparison.
1. The PM taking the advice of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Advisor. Both of whom were appointed under a different PM long before the current crisis. Who else's advice is he supposed to take?
2. Do you have any evidence that the CMO or the CSA object to the given priorities?
3. Absolutely mistrust is rational, and I agree with everything Doublethink said about running down the NHS, but that doesn't make it justified in every possible circumstance.
I have had an email from the Labour Party, telling us all campaigns and meetings are suspended - and requesting members seek to support vulnerable members of the community.
Also notes labour support a science led approach but would like to see the advice the government is basing its decisions published - which seems a reasonable response to me.
I've got a feeling that duty of care legal responsibilities have a lot to do with the sports events decisions. Keeping the events going might well have put staff and player into harm's way, regardless of opinions on crowd risk.
I think the justifiable criticism of the CMOs view on large gatherings is that you simply can't exercise social distancing in a large crowd. It's easier to do that in small scale meetings - you can increase distances between chairs for example.
Also notes labour support a science led approach but would like to see the advice the government is basing its decisions published - which seems a reasonable response to me.
I understand this sentiment, but I'm not sure it's reasonable.
A friend of mine is a retired manager of our city's major teaching hospital. He was in charge at the time of the bird flu. In his new role as interfaith delegate for the Catholic diocese, he is very frustrated not to have all the information at his fingertips now that he did then, but appreciates that it is simply no longer his role to have it.
The fact is that even if lots of us here probably have the academic tools and intellect to pore over such advice, we don't have the same overview or the same political and social considerations to weigh as those in charge (for better for worse).
Comments
If one's churchmanship usually employs chasubles, maybe it would be better to simply use an alb (easily cleaned) and stole, for the time being?
Otherwise, lots of commonsense.
He has never had to do it before. I have been in charge of media services at church for 10 years, but I am not going to be around 24/7. Eventually, I will have to step down, so he just wants to make sure the congregation can carry on without me.
I do hope that the outbreaks of commonsense don't vanish away like the dew in the morn, once the coronavirus outbreak is over...
I doubt if they shared bodily fluids, but...
When it comes to media services, I am more fly by the seat of my pants--if there is a glitch, I deal with it. Pastor is more detailed oriented. He wants to make sure there are no glitches. (There will be, no doubt, especially through this transition phase).
If you test a larger sample, you'll have a smaller shadow of untested cases. So S Korea could assume that for each confirmed case they have y unconfirmed, whereas Britain might assume for each confirmed case they have 2y unconfirmed (on the basis of a model of infectiousness and spread). But the point about the graph is not the the absolute numbers of confirmed cases, its the the stepwise jump in Italy vs the curve on the UK graph.
UK testing was on people meeting x criteria related to transmission - to contain, then everyone with flu like illness in a set of specified areas - to track community transmission, then later - and now - anyone in a (free) hospital with a respiratory condition to manage risk and treatment in the healthcare system.
US testing appears to be non-contact led and non-random. So they will struggle to know if number in New York vs number in Montana is to do with relative levels of wealth and insurance coverage, relative availability of test kits being different between New York and Montana, or a difference in spread.
Using this formula it seems to appear China is all but flat now in new cases. The United States Reports swing wildly. Yesterday, it was up 26%, today, it is up 6%, but I am assuming it is because we are just so bad at this thing. Great Britain is up by 26% today. Italy has either stopped reporting cases or they had no new cases to report today. South Korea is also getting close to flat at 1%
TEC Diocese of Chicago has suspended church services.
https://churchofengland.org/prayer-and-worship/join-us-service-daily-prayer
Not the same as attending Mass/Eucharist, but useful nevertheless in the absence of any other input from your local church.
I'm sure a quick Google will come up with other similar resources!
No it isn't, you'd have to do that on clinical presentation.
Italy has 1000 fatalities versus 10 in thr UK, so Italy is 100 times worse affected.
Even if you say, well maybe the mortality rate is 3 times higher in Italy due to an older population, then that just means 1000 cases are 3 times less of a problem in the UK.
At least we are approaching the equinox. I know you get none from November to January. I don't think it needs to be bright sunlight. The summer months you get quantity, even if not quality.
The rugby is going ahead tomorrow.
So far, social workers and therapists seem to be allowed anywhere; I’ve assessed three new people in their own homes this week (two of them elderly), done a hoisting reassessment with carers, been into the office, picked up items from the equipment stores, attended a leaving lunch and visited a care home twice (yesterday and today). I did ring to check all these appointments should be going ahead, but apparently that was fine.
I don’t have any symptoms of anything, but I don’t succumb to viruses easily (touch wood) and might be unwittingly spreading them...
Not anymore.
Indeed. Those of us who are used to visiting folks in hospital, in isolation, for example with certain medical conditions, are used to conforming to medical-led instructions in how to do that as safely as possible. Possibly, because the Coronvavirus thin
Yes - I kind of chortled at that one! I've decided we will do without Chasubles in that case. Stoles I can cope with at home - and the (say it softly) cassock-alb is easily washed.
I am struggling to get even one congregation-sized bottle of hand-sanitizer, however! Both on-line and in real life.
UV-C will kill some viruses, but AFAIK, it has not been proven against corona
It's not just chasubles, but if you follow the logic, it's also dalmatics and tunicles (yes, we run to the full Monty), and presumably also 4 x servers cassock, albs and amices will also require washing as they're up the sharp end. For each main Sunday service.
However we have an early service and the main service on a Sunday - we do have enough chasubles, but not enough space to segregate robes from the two services.
And the heavy wool cloaks the clergy wear when greeting folk outside (non-washable). And the choir dress and copes used at Evensong (kept in different cupboards to the Mass sets, but in the same room - the sacristy, also entered by assorted folk during the week.)
Mid-week Communions are (generally) >48hours apart, so no problem there. Though ensuring laundry compliance for six priests (mixture of stipendiary, non-stipendiary and retired)…. yeah, right.
It occurred to me that if we need to launder all servers robes as well we should just cut down to one individual who was both MC & Crucifer... But I suspect if I suggested that, the response might be that it would make the Baby Jesus cry.... And probably the same response if the suggestion were made to revert to stole & cass-alb only.
It's not that any of the guidelines are unreasonable in and of themselves, and I accept that as a Cathedral, it's a case of "First Church Problem". Myself, I don't care if we ditch chasuble etc etc, but I don' t imagine that would be a terribly common view point..... (I would be happy to be surprised on that one). And I'm one of the ones who is going to have to implement it/keep the clergy in order.....
Love it
Though you know (of) our higher heidyin clergy and Bishop Elect..... reckon it would pass?
Hmm... Fr Kelvin and Bishop Kevin? Don't know, I'm afraid. I think Bishop Kevin did leave the chasuble at home when he visited us, though he did wear cassock and alb.
I think this is a wise decision even though there have been no cases within seventy-five miles of us.
I will miss receiving Communion, though.
I particularly like the closing remarks:
"We should bear in mind that taking sensible precautions is not principally an act of self-protection, but primarily an action designed to protect others who are at risk in our congregation and our community. And we should continue to be open-hearted and attentive to the lonely, the vulnerable and the anxious, both within the church and beyond. Above all, we will face the future (which is always uncertain) with courage and faith in God.
Clean hands, open hearts!"
Presumably the behavioral scientists being at the top of their game already predicted all this.
Hmmm...here, the reason given is avoiding the chance of infection. With people crowded together, there's more chance that the virus might be transmitted.
Today the 6th case of coronavirus in NZ was confirmed. So far most have been in Auckland (which makes sense as it is by far the largest city in NZ).
Nobody seems to have suggested closing Cook Strait (the stretch of water between the North and South Islands) though.
or closing State Highway 1.
At this rate, we'll eventually be limited to groups of 4 people at intersections, each standing at a different corner and yelling at the others.
(Which reminds me of a certain post-apocalyptic, time-travel episode of "Seaquest". I won't go into details; but if you saw it, you probably know which one I mean.)
They are NOT prohibited?
I have just declined an invitation to sing in the Lenten choir (=7 occasions in very close quarters) on the grounds that we will be self-isolating (Mr Lamb had a close encounter today with a semi-symptomatic woman who was in Vietnam a month ago.)
I can't even.
Until that problem is solved, it's guesswork, and the fewer asymptomatic people are tested, the less trustworthy the guess.
They literally did, and in the future they will close schools for a period too - government advisors have talked repeatedly about introducing measures sequentially.
They have also talked repeatedly about the need to have the public on board with the introduction of restrictions, a) e.g. there’d have been no public support for suspending the football season at the beginning of February b) once people start to volunteer to do something there is more chance that people will comply with the wider restriction.
Personally I have decided to not do any casual teaching, volunteer work or social or church activities at least for the next two weeks, quite likely longer. I'm not sure if the vacation care I work for in the holidays in two weeks time will go ahead. Sometimes school closures seem imminent in Victoria,Australia where I live, but no formal announcement has been made as yet and NSW is playing down the need for them with the argument school kids will spread the virus further if they are not in school. I don't drive and have to take public transport most places, so that has influenced my decision. I also have asthma and have been fighting off a non-contagious low level chest infection since January, which another round of antibiotics hasn't killed off (I will be back at the doctors Monday, but as I am nearly well I don't know if they will do anything) and both housemates have health issues and one just had surgery, plus the couple I do care work for also do. I will continue the 3 days a week care work as that is a less than 15 minute bus ride, but will have to give it up temporarily if I or the couple get the virus or cold or flu. Thankfully they can cope without me, though they are hoping I don't have to take time off. My agency is only ensuring care for clients who absolutely require it to stay alive if we all get quarantined.
I have also been trying to convince some FB friends in the UK who are involved in a healing ministry that praying at home and spending time with God or connecting with the internet are just as valid as large Pentecostal conferences and hands on street healing. Some of their friends have some really scary ideas that only people of little faith catch illnesses, but thankfully there are sensible voices chiming in too or I would be very worried there could be a repeat of the virus spreading through a church, like that cult in South Korea.
Edited to correct an error and the link! I accidentally put the 'Yes, Minister' clip again, as I copied it to share with my housemate who likes the show.
Corrected that. Sorry!
I agree totally.
But these are not normal times, even the best health services are being overwhelmed.
Surely any response that is predicated on people doing stuff depends on behavioural science whether you believe in it or not?
Eta: AIUI suspending the Premier League is less about full stadiums and more about the unfairness of some teams having to play matches with half their players in isolation.
From what she has said large gatherings may also be prohibited.
I think the extra measures are in part because the next few months here are the high season for the flu, and hospitals struggle to cope with the number of admissions, even with vaccinations being free for those with respiratory diseases or over 65. At present there are 6 confirmed cases of covid 19, but there are apparently a large number of people already self isolating so it is likely that there will be more not yet diagnosed.
She has also asked that people not make a run on the Supermarkets as goods will still be imported. It will be interesting to see how that works out.
I'm giving up on the Grauniad coverage as it looks to me that they are determined to politicise stuff that (for once) isn't political - e.g. today's headline says 'PM forced into U-turn' - AIUI if anyone has been 'forced' into a 'U-turn' it would be Patrick Vallence and John Whitty - but that would interfere with the narrative of 'public sector workers good, Tory politicians bad'.
The politicians are the ones making the decisions. They choose which advice to follow, and in fact guide what advice they are given by what priorities and goals they set (if you want another example of this, take a look at the work of the "independent" public sector pay review bodies). You can't "politicise" what is already by nature political. Mistrust of tory politicians in general and ABdPJ in particular is rational based on prior evidence. It is a U-turn, a screeching one, that indicates the PM is trying the avoid the appearance of fiddling while Rome burns and the organisers of major sporting events look responsible and cautious by comparison.
1. The PM taking the advice of the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Advisor. Both of whom were appointed under a different PM long before the current crisis. Who else's advice is he supposed to take?
2. Do you have any evidence that the CMO or the CSA object to the given priorities?
3. Absolutely mistrust is rational, and I agree with everything Doublethink said about running down the NHS, but that doesn't make it justified in every possible circumstance.
Also notes labour support a science led approach but would like to see the advice the government is basing its decisions published - which seems a reasonable response to me.
I think the justifiable criticism of the CMOs view on large gatherings is that you simply can't exercise social distancing in a large crowd. It's easier to do that in small scale meetings - you can increase distances between chairs for example.
A friend of mine is a retired manager of our city's major teaching hospital. He was in charge at the time of the bird flu. In his new role as interfaith delegate for the Catholic diocese, he is very frustrated not to have all the information at his fingertips now that he did then, but appreciates that it is simply no longer his role to have it.
The fact is that even if lots of us here probably have the academic tools and intellect to pore over such advice, we don't have the same overview or the same political and social considerations to weigh as those in charge (for better for worse).