Trump is as far right as the GOP can go. I believe it has to begin swinging back to the middle, most certainly after the 2022 midterm elections. I look for Texas to go blue at the mid-term. That will be a radical wake-up call for the Republican party.
It would be nice to believe that Trump is as bad as it gets, but a good rule of thumb is that things can always get worse.
Pendulums only swing if there is a restoring force(essential condition for simple harmonic motion!). So if Republicans respond to election losses by becoming more moderate then your analysis holds. But will they?
Trump is as far right as the GOP can go. I believe it has to begin swinging back to the middle, most certainly after the 2022 midterm elections. I look for Texas to go blue at the mid-term. That will be a radical wake-up call for the Republican party.
It would be nice to believe that Trump is as bad as it gets, but a good rule of thumb is that things can always get worse.
Pendulums only swing if there is a restoring force(essential condition for simple harmonic motion!). So if Republicans respond to election losses by becoming more moderate then your analysis holds. But will they?
With any party, there will be swings to the left and to the right. Trump is as far right as the GOP can go. I believe it has to begin swinging back to the middle, most certainly after the 2022 midterm elections. I look for Texas to go blue at the mid-term. That will be a radical wake-up call for the Republican party.
I agree with TT too. I add that Trump is further to the right than any political party in a liberal democracy can be, because he refused to accept the results of an election and attempted to use a popular demonstration to stop the necessary transfer of power.
I think the GOP has broken a necessary consensus belief in the integrity of the system. It had a chance to repair the damage by convicting Trump, and there will be other chances. But until it repudiates Trump and recommits to the rule of law, anything is possible.
As I said, Texas will likely be going Democrat with the mess the Republicans have created there. There are 36 Congressional Districts in Texas. 22 of them are Republican Controlled. There will be a strong throw the bums out movement in two years. People will remember the cold, no power, no water, no food this past week. The Republican party cannot afford to lose any of those seats. You will see some moderation beginning this year.
As I said, Texas will likely be going Democrat with the mess the Republicans have created there. There are 36 Congressional Districts in Texas. 22 of them are Republican Controlled. There will be a strong throw the bums out movement in two years. People will remember the cold, no power, no water, no food this past week. The Republican party cannot afford to lose any of those seats. You will see some moderation beginning this year.
I hope you're right but people's memories are short, and the spinmeisters are already making excuses and casting blame across the aisle for this.
Frankly, I find the notion of Texas going Democratic preposterous. I pretend no special wisdom or knowledge, but have traveled a little among Lone Star denizens, and a more determined set of obstructionists would be hard to find.
Frankly, I find the notion of Texas going Democratic preposterous. I pretend no special wisdom or knowledge, but have traveled a little among Lone Star denizens, and a more determined set of obstructionists would be hard to find.
Were they rural and white? My (limited) understanding is that the potential for Texas to go blue rests in its urban and minority, specifically Latinx, populations.
Frankly, I find the notion of Texas going Democratic preposterous. I pretend no special wisdom or knowledge, but have traveled a little among Lone Star denizens, and a more determined set of obstructionists would be hard to find.
Were they rural and white? My (limited) understanding is that the potential for Texas to go blue rests in its urban and minority, specifically Latinx, populations.
I do agree that you may have a sampling error here. Texas is very close to flipping.
I do agree that you may have a sampling error here. Texas is very close to flipping.
Not while held fast in the grip of gerrymandering.
The thing about gerrymandering is that, like a lot of finely tuned systems, it can look secure right up to the point where it collapses entirely. It works by one party giving itself small majorities in lots of districts and their opponents huge majorities in a handful of seats. It moves the tipping point but makes that point severe when it's reached.
As I said, Texas will likely be going Democrat with the mess the Republicans have created there. There are 36 Congressional Districts in Texas. 22 of them are Republican Controlled. There will be a strong throw the bums out movement in two years. People will remember the cold, no power, no water, no food this past week. The Republican party cannot afford to lose any of those seats. You will see some moderation beginning this year.
The best way to justify your own bad behavior is to insist that your opponent is doing it, and you need to level the score. A potential problem with Republican-controlled states is that they take the next step, beyond the gerrymander and active voter suppression, and just start making the results up.
That there is a powerful rationale for flipping, there's no doubt. Having lived among some "old-style" Yankees for the last 30 years, though, I'm also painfully familiar with a certain mindset that goes, "Well, this is the hand I got dealt, and however shitty that hand is, by gum, I'm gonna play it out to the bitter end."
As I said, Texas will likely be going Democrat with the mess the Republicans have created there. There are 36 Congressional Districts in Texas. 22 of them are Republican Controlled. There will be a strong throw the bums out movement in two years. People will remember the cold, no power, no water, no food this past week. The Republican party cannot afford to lose any of those seats. You will see some moderation beginning this year.
Happened on Biden's watch, it's his fault, regardless of Texas' go-it-alone energy infrastructure and Biden's immediate FEMA deployment. You can't plan for 'acts of God' and you can't change your identity. Cruz has no competition at all. In other words, what @Ohher &n @Amanda B Reckondwyth said.
To the argument that people's memories are short--not if it involves pocketbook issues. It will take a very long time for people's houses to be repaired; and, even then, homeowner's insurance will skyrocket.
Texas reminds me of the child who says, "I can do it myself." until s/he can't. It really created its own hole starting back in the 1930s.
Texas has seen a lot of changes in metropolitan growth, not only in minorities but also in the in-migration of out-of-state people, notably from California. Then too, the rural population continues to decline. The Republicans are losing their power base.
Regarding gerrymandering: Texas is well known for that, and this year is the time for redistricting. But there have been a couple of court rulings coming out of Pennsylvania that have ordered changes to gerrymandered districts. And these rulings have come out of the current SCOTUS.
BTW, did you hear about the heroic father who crossed the Mexican border and traveled 1200 miles just so he could provide warmth and electricity, food and water for his family? His name is Ted Cruz.
The gerrymandering in Texas displays an especially devilish cunning. Chunks of Huston and Austin districts extend to areas essentially rural, following none of the natural population distribution, but favouring the GOP. Further, not only is the collective political memory short, the collective political psychology is, irrationally, occasionally masochistic. I've seen it in action, as have @Sober Preacher's Kid@Stercus Tauri and others here. I hold out no hope for the buification of Texas. Yet.
Another law that is being looked at is what is known as the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1870 which would have made it a federal offense if the KKK prevented federal officials from carrying out their constitutional responsibilities. The question is is the act limited to just the KKK, or can it be applied to other groups.
I like the argument that "No President would ever dream of doing such things; therefore he must have been acting as a private citizen, outside the scope of his duties and responsibilities as President."
The argument of those suing Trump is that isn't that no president would ever dream of inciting a riot, etc. but that such things aren't part of the duties and responsibilities of being a president, so Trump can't claim any immunity based on his role as president.
Lord help us, he's coming out of hiding. Any bets on whether or not he and/or his audience will be masked/socially distanced, and what he will talk about?
Lord help us, he's coming out of hiding. Any bets on whether or not he and/or his audience will be masked/socially distanced, and what he will talk about?
Lord help us, he's coming out of hiding. Any bets on whether or not he and/or his audience will be masked/socially distanced, and what he will talk about?
Lord help us, he's coming out of hiding. Any bets on whether or not he and/or his audience will be masked/socially distanced, and what he will talk about?
I bet he will give a very incoherent speech.
I'm guessing the first part will be on point, having been written professionally. Then he'll go off script and say a bunch of untrue things and a lot of "rah rah I'm great" stuff.
Lord help us, he's coming out of hiding. Any bets on whether or not he and/or his audience will be masked/socially distanced, and what he will talk about?
I bet he will give a very incoherent speech.
I'm guessing the first part will be on point, having been written professionally. Then he'll go off script and say a bunch of untrue things and a lot of "rah rah I'm great" stuff.
I'm expecting him to thank the great patriots who went to Washington DC to defend democracy in January.
Approximately 2 days later he will deny meaning what everyone thinks he meant by that.
Lord help us, he's coming out of hiding. Any bets on whether or not he and/or his audience will be masked/socially distanced, and what he will talk about?
I bet he will give a very incoherent speech.
I'm guessing the first part will be on point, having been written professionally. Then he'll go off script and say a bunch of untrue things and a lot of "rah rah I'm great" stuff.
I'm expecting him to thank the great patriots who went to Washington DC to defend democracy in January.
Approximately 2 days later he will deny meaning what everyone thinks he meant by that.
Can someone remind us (me) what is the the significance of this please? Might it reveal his true financial status to his detriment in the eyes of those who think he's a financial colossus? Might it allow people to point out where he's been lying to the taxman?
There's a fairly good explanation here. Apart from the possibility of finding out about payment(s) to Stormy Daniels, the bug thing is the suspicion of persistent over-valuing of real estate to banks to obtain credit while under-valuing the same properties for tax purposes. Plus over-valuing ongoing works where insurance claims have been made, either loss or for problems associated with construction.
Can someone remind us (me) what is the the significance of this please? Might it reveal his true financial status to his detriment in the eyes of those who think he's a financial colossus? Might it allow people to point out where he's been lying to the taxman?
Yep.
There's several aspects to this: almost certainly it will show:
1) Trump isn't as rich as he says he is
2) He owes the taxman a lot of money
3) he was using artificially low values for tax purposes and artificially high values to gain credit. Also known as fraud.
Can someone remind us (me) what is the the significance of this please? Might it reveal his true financial status to his detriment in the eyes of those who think he's a financial colossus? Might it allow people to point out where he's been lying to the taxman?
Yes, but he would have frequent temper tantrums, threaten guards who didn't accede to his wishes, and probably keep a bunch of lawyers (his and the state's) busy with his complaints.
Prison would be a better fate for Trump than his Roman antecedents. Who was it who had molten gold poured down his throat? Marcus Licinius Crassus? How would you like that steak? Well done? Ketchup?
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Oh, Beto O' Rourke is already making hay deep in the heart of Texas (pun intended).
It would be nice to believe that Trump is as bad as it gets, but a good rule of thumb is that things can always get worse.
Pendulums only swing if there is a restoring force (essential condition for simple harmonic motion!). So if Republicans respond to election losses by becoming more moderate then your analysis holds. But will they?
Exactly. We could still be on the up-swing.
I agree with TT too. I add that Trump is further to the right than any political party in a liberal democracy can be, because he refused to accept the results of an election and attempted to use a popular demonstration to stop the necessary transfer of power.
I think the GOP has broken a necessary consensus belief in the integrity of the system. It had a chance to repair the damage by convicting Trump, and there will be other chances. But until it repudiates Trump and recommits to the rule of law, anything is possible.
It needs to be smacked electorally.
I hope you're right but people's memories are short, and the spinmeisters are already making excuses and casting blame across the aisle for this.
Were they rural and white? My (limited) understanding is that the potential for Texas to go blue rests in its urban and minority, specifically Latinx, populations.
I do agree that you may have a sampling error here. Texas is very close to flipping.
Not while held fast in the grip of gerrymandering.
The thing about gerrymandering is that, like a lot of finely tuned systems, it can look secure right up to the point where it collapses entirely. It works by one party giving itself small majorities in lots of districts and their opponents huge majorities in a handful of seats. It moves the tipping point but makes that point severe when it's reached.
The best way to justify your own bad behavior is to insist that your opponent is doing it, and you need to level the score. A potential problem with Republican-controlled states is that they take the next step, beyond the gerrymander and active voter suppression, and just start making the results up.
Happened on Biden's watch, it's his fault, regardless of Texas' go-it-alone energy infrastructure and Biden's immediate FEMA deployment. You can't plan for 'acts of God' and you can't change your identity. Cruz has no competition at all. In other words, what @Ohher &n @Amanda B Reckondwyth said.
Texas reminds me of the child who says, "I can do it myself." until s/he can't. It really created its own hole starting back in the 1930s.
Texas has seen a lot of changes in metropolitan growth, not only in minorities but also in the in-migration of out-of-state people, notably from California. Then too, the rural population continues to decline. The Republicans are losing their power base.
Regarding gerrymandering: Texas is well known for that, and this year is the time for redistricting. But there have been a couple of court rulings coming out of Pennsylvania that have ordered changes to gerrymandered districts. And these rulings have come out of the current SCOTUS.
BTW, did you hear about the heroic father who crossed the Mexican border and traveled 1200 miles just so he could provide warmth and electricity, food and water for his family? His name is Ted Cruz.
The act itself is formally known as "An Act to enforce the Provisions of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, and for other Purposes". It is known vernacularly as "the Ku Klux Klan Act" because that was the most infamous of the terrorist paramilitary groups interfering with the implementation of the Reconstruction Amendments in the South, but the Klan was not the only such organization. In fact, a law applying only to the Ku Klux Klan would be a bill of attainder and thus unconstitutional.
Here's an AP article with details on the lawsuit.
This is also the first time CPAC has been held in Florida. Usually it's in the DC area. Prior to Trump signing on they'd been having trouble finding speakers.
I bet he will give a very incoherent speech.
I'm guessing the first part will be on point, having been written professionally. Then he'll go off script and say a bunch of untrue things and a lot of "rah rah I'm great" stuff.
As ever.
I'm expecting him to thank the great patriots who went to Washington DC to defend democracy in January.
Approximately 2 days later he will deny meaning what everyone thinks he meant by that.
I won't bet against this reading.
Yep.
There's several aspects to this: almost certainly it will show:
1) Trump isn't as rich as he says he is
2) He owes the taxman a lot of money
3) he was using artificially low values for tax purposes and artificially high values to gain credit. Also known as fraud.
AFZ
It might result in his being sent to prison.
There's a paywall.
There's something called solitary confinement that would be a remedy for that.
As do fellow prisoners.
I’m guessing that may not survive actually getting to know him in person...
As one might expect in both federal and state prisons, internet access is very restricted.