I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
As good a guess as any I think.
Election turnout in 2021 was about 62%-- if it is much over 70% this time, then I think most of March's predictions will be interesting, but probably not useful-- if turnout is over 75%.... My own feeling is that 3-way races and the door-knocking war will give us a few surprising results, but I've not looked at numbers or talked to canvassers over a glass, so am not guessing at this stage.
I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
Anything other than a Conservative majority would be a disaster for the Canadian economy.
Carney has been promising a conservative-lite style government (his platform is mostly stolen from that of Poilierve), but his history (both in word and deed) proves he is far from that.
This is the end for me on this thread. I expect it will become more heated a debate than I am comfortable with. You all know where I stand.
This is encouraging. It seems that most other leaders can hardly wait to rush to Washington to kiss trump on all four cheeks at the earliest opportunity.
Surely you are not referring to the Premier of Alberta?
She now claims to be doing the "good cop" as part of some policier procedural, but I'm pretty skeptical myself.
Just saw a headline that Smith is suggesting that Trump postpone the tariffs until after the Canadian election. Assuming that's the most favourable option at the present time(ie. try to get Trump to keep kickin' the can indefinitely), she gets a cookie if she can make that happen.
I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
Anything other than a Conservative majority would be a disaster for the Canadian economy.
Carney has been promising a conservative-lite style government (his platform is mostly stolen from that of Poilierve), but his history (both in word and deed) proves he is far from that.
This is the end for me on this thread. I expect it will become more heated a debate than I am comfortable with. You all know where I stand.
Well, I can only speak for myself, but I wasn't planning to engage in any "heated" attacks against you during the campaign, and it's good to have a minority viewpoint to avoid devolving into an echo-chamber. But you gotta do what you're comfortable with.
I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
Anything other than a Conservative majority would be a disaster for the Canadian economy.
Carney has been promising a conservative-lite style government (his platform is mostly stolen from that of Poilierve), but his history (both in word and deed) proves he is far from that.
This is the end for me on this thread. I expect it will become more heated a debate than I am comfortable with. You all know where I stand.
I respect your opinions, even if I disagree with them. You've never made it personal.
I'm gonna call a Liberal minority right here. Probably recklessly, 'cuz this is gonna be a pretty volatile election season, but that's what I'm gonna call.
As good a guess as any I think.
Election turnout in 2021 was about 62%-- if it is much over 70% this time, then I think most of March's predictions will be interesting, but probably not useful-- if turnout is over 75%.... My own feeling is that 3-way races and the door-knocking war will give us a few surprising results, but I've not looked at numbers or talked to canvassers over a glass, so am not guessing at this stage.
I sometimes wonder how much of a swing effect is a product of turnout, as opposed to voters actually changing their minds. I remember discussing this in relation to Florida’s swing state status and somebody much more familiar with Florida politics than I am assured me it was entirely a question of whether north or South Florida turned out in greater numbers.
Generally speaking, a higher turnout is connected with a change of government. This time, the strength of popular emotion may not be in that direction, but more toward selecting the best anti-Trump champion. While my musing is usually correct, it's only musing, and lots of things can happen in the next month.
Thanks. Hadn't heard about that, as I haven't started following the federal election that closely.
Probably softens the blow that the immediate offendee was one of his own candidates, and for probably obvious reasons she's choosing not to make an issue of it.
My semi-educated guess was that Concordia came to Carney's mind because that's where Valery Fabrikant carried out another mass shooting a few years later.
Thanks. Hadn't heard about that, as I haven't started following the federal election that closely.
Probably softens the blow that the immediate offendee was one of his own candidates, and for probably obvious reasons she's choosing not to make an issue of it.
My semi-educated guess was that Concordia came to Carney's mind because that's where Valery Fabrikant carried out another mass shooting a few years later.
I have met the candidate on a few occasions in my former life, and I think it be safe to say that she has expressed herself very clearly, and that observers may note that campaign staff will be seen limping over the next few days.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has been accused of taking other people’s ideas as his own in the federal election campaign. It isn’t new. The National Post obtained a copy of Carney’s 1995 thesis for his doctorate in economics from Oxford University titled “The Dynamic Advantage of Competition.” It shows 10 instances of apparent plagiarism, according to the judgment of three university academics who reviewed the material. In several sections of his thesis, Carney used full quotes, paraphrases, or slightly modified quotes from four previous works without proper acknowledgement or attribution. Carney’s campaign at first provided a statement from his doctoral supervisor at Oxford University. “I believe you are mischaracterizing this work. As an academic of nearly 40 years, I see no evidence of plagiarism in the thesis you cited nor any unusual academic practices,” said Margaret Meyer, Official Fellow of Economics at Nuffield College, in the provided statement. Clink the link to read the full story www.nationalpost.com
Well, maybe for comparison they could put Carney's citations in his doctoral thesis up for comparison against the citations in Poilievre's doctoral ... oh right.
I'm sorry, I know a post-graduate degree is by no means an essential qualification to the run the country, but the disparity in intelligence, education, and real-world experience between the Liberal and Conservative leaders is so vast that I don't think attacking Carney on whether he cited his sources correctly in his thesis is a winning strategy for the Conservatives. But to be fair I don't really understand why any of their strategies are winning, so I'm pretty biased.
How PP is controlling the media at campaign events.
"Monday's event at the Saint John cruise terminal was tightly controlled by Poilievre's handlers, who chose in advance which four reporters would be able to ask one question each. CBC News was not one of the chosen.
The leader was introduced by John Williamson, who represented Saint John–St. Croix in the last Parliament, and he stood for photos with Williamson and Melissa Young, the candidate for Saint John–Kennebecasis.
The crowd was small, mostly Conservative Party insiders and the news media. There was no visible representation from the business community or Irving Oil, which has a refinery in the city.
Poilievre was then expected to travel to Fredericton for a rally, followed by a stop in St. John's on Tuesday and a rally Tuesday in Charlottetown. "
Why has a significant chuck of the Bloc’s support gone to the Liberals? Is it because of Trump, because they think Carney is better at dealing with Trump, or because they dislike Poilievre for other reasons?
When the Federal Progressive Conservatives were still around, did non-radical Quebec nationalists (whether they were soft separatists or just autonomists) prefer to have them in government over the Liberals? Is this situation different with the current Conservative Party?
I know the Bloc is different from whatever nationalist party is currently stronger at the provincial level in Quebec, and that Legault and his CAQ party are more small-c conservative than the Bloc, but when Legault said in a previous election that he would prefer to work with a Conservative Federal government, how widespread was that sentiment among nationalist and autonomist voters in Quebec? Has that sentiment changed?
If you’re pro-Quebec autonomy and protecting the French language but don’t want another independence referendum, absent Trump’s threats to Canada’s sovereignty, would you be more likely to think Quebec could get a better deal from the Federal Liberals or Conservatives? Or does it change depending on the leaders of the major parties and the chances of a minority government (which would give the Bloc more negotiating power)?
When the Federal Progressive Conservatives were still around, did non-radical Quebec nationalists (whether they were soft separatists or just autonomists) prefer to have them in government over the Liberals? Is this situation different with the current Conservative Party?
I know the Bloc is different from whatever nationalist party is currently stronger at the provincial level in Quebec, and that Legault and his CAQ party are more small-c conservative than the Bloc, but when Legault said in a previous election that he would prefer to work with a Conservative Federal government, how widespread was that sentiment among nationalist and autonomist voters in Quebec? Has that sentiment changed?
If you’re pro-Quebec autonomy and protecting the French language but don’t want another independence referendum, absent Trump’s threats to Canada’s sovereignty, would you be more likely to think Quebec could get a better deal from the Federal Liberals or Conservatives? Or does it change depending on the leaders of the major parties and the chances of a minority government (which would give the Bloc more negotiating power)?
It kinda depends on the situation. Historically, the tories were allied with the pro-clerical faction among Quebec Catholics(at the same time they were high-fiving the Orangeman of Ontario), and the Liberals allied with the anti-clerical liberal faction. Despite pulling stunts like the hanging of Louis Riel and screaming for conscription during the world wars, les bleus did occassionally manage to swing a bulk of the seats in Quebec.
In 1982, Pierre Trudeau repatriated the Constitution with a Charter Of Rights, but Quebec refused to sign on, because they worried the individualistic bent of the Charter would hamper their protection of the French language within the province(Trudeau wanted Canada as a whole to be bilingual, and ridiculed his home province's claim to being uniquely French within Confederation). This led to a smooth-talking labour-lawyer named Brian Mulroney taking the tory leadership and winning the 1984 election, partly on a promise to change the constitution to make it more amenable to Quebec's aspirations.
Long story short, both of Mulroney's proposals failed(with off-set heckling from Pierre Trudeau both times), but he did manage to sweep Quebec again in '88 on the popularity of free-trade. By '93, the whole country was sick of the Conservatives, and elected Trudeau-protege Jean Chretien to a majority, but Quebec swung over to the Bloc, presumably because they no longer trusted Canada, especially Liberals, to respect their self-perceived cultural uniqueness.
IIRC, the Bloc continued dominate the province's Ottawa contingent until 2011, when they swung over to the socialist NDP, who were going outta their way to appear sympathetic to Quebec. Stephen Harper always managed to hold a semi-respectable Conservative rump in the province, but they never warmed to his party, even when they were voting for similar outfits like the CAQ provincially. I think it was just a case of Quebec being social democrat, and Harper being viewed as a standard neoliberal.
Quebec jumped aboard Justinmania in 2015, but the Bloc has made a comeback since then. With Trump's anneationist rantings prompting the singing of Oh Canada in English by Quebec fans, I wouldn't expect a rehash of anti-Canadian grievances to be a hot-seller in Quebec during the present election. No predictions on the actual outcome.
TL/DR: Yes, Quebec will sometimes vote tory depending on what issues they're worried about in a given election, though I'm not expecting a mass swing to Poilievre in four weeks.
Québec voters will occasionally plump in large numbers to give the other guy a chance when they feel that the regular parties are not delivering, such as Mario Dumont in 2007 with Action Démocratique or federally in 2011 with Jack Layton and the NDP. When the shift happens, it is palpable.
It is still three weeks until voting day but I'm not sure that P2 can expect a major shift in his direction. I get the feeling that, while his French is better than the PM's, he will not be the beneficiary of Québec voters' liking for a strong guy. We'll see soon enough.
For clarity, my reference above to stress levels refers to acquaintances of all three parties, the Conservative trying to figure out how to reverse the popular sentiment in favour of the PM, 2 NDP friends worried about their voters going for "progressive solidarity," and 2 Liberals not quite believing their eyes and fearing that their lead will evaporate like the mist in the three days before voting. At an advanced age, I comfort myself with another cortado and the positive admiration of the local cats.
I don't know how much you can read into the numbers of lawn signs, but around here there seem to be more than usual. Liberal signs probably outnumber Conservatives, and so far I haven't seen any NDP or Green. Strategic voting seems to be the order of the day.
However, we have an interesting young friend who is running for the Greens in a nearby riding and hope she will do well.
We have a mix of orange and red, which is pretty much what one would expect here given that the Conservatives are not competitive in this part of the world. Three months ago I was expecting the NDP to take the riding back the Liberals. Now who knows?
We have a mix of orange and red, which is pretty much what one would expect here given that the Conservatives are not competitive in this part of the world. Three months ago I was expecting the NDP to take the riding back the Liberals. Now who knows?
Pretty sure I've seen more Liberal than Conservative or NDP signs hereabouts, but the latter two certainly have visible representation, disproportionate to their historical performance in this riding.
All orange and red in my neighbourhood. We have a Liberal incumbent, a really strong labour-leader NDP candidate who will probably lose because of strategic voting, and a Conservative candidate who might be considered strong in a different election, but I have not seen one lawn sign for him.
Still debating whether I will get a sign for our NDP candidate. I intend to vote for her, but I am still keeping back that mental reservation that if for some reason things flipped and it looked like the Conservatives (or our particular Conservative candidate) were gaining strength, I might bite the bullet and vote Liberal.
I have a friend who signs NDP to encourage the lad, but votes Liberal. Discussing this with her, she tells me that she has friends doing the exact opposite.
I'm just back from Montréal (Rosemont-La Pètite-Patrie, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Hochelaga, eastern tip of Outremont) where there are not a lot of lawn signs but telephone poles are well-plastered, primarily Liberal and Bloc, with a sprinkling of NDP (primarily Alexandre Boulerice), and one or two Green.
In my own turf, it is a Joel Hardens (NDP)/ Yasir Naqvi face-off. My own experience of Mr Hardens suggested that he was shallow and performative but I have recently seen an in-depth interview which suggests he's been hiding his analytical intellect. Yasir was Mrs Wynne's Attorney General where my lawyer friends credit him with shaping up the courts. The Conservative candidate, a retired officer, has just come out of the woodwork (I've only seen one sign so far). So I'll head to the all-candidates in a week to see how they all show in the town hall setting.
As Augustine and I share the same riding, Joel Harden unseated Yasir Naqvi provincially two elections ago and is now running a repeat attempt federally. The Ottawa Centre NDP has a very formidable campaign apparatus with full funding, a plethora of volunteers and all the bells and whistles.
The NDP is outdoing the Liberals in signs two to one in my neighbourhood.
The only Conservative signs I have seen are on public property in parks and at transit terminals. They don't count as ditches don't vote.
All campaigns have plastered the bike bath I take to work with signs.
I am in Wayne Long's riding. Canada 338 calls it Liberal likely. There is some discontent in the riding about the Conservatives bypassing the nomination process. With redistribution we will see how Wayne does.
This morning's walk for groceries (through residential streets) revealed a low sign count of: Conservative (1), Liberal (3), NDP (3), and Green (2). A usual Conservative supporter did not have a sign up, but perhaps that's coming. Ditto for the usual CPC supporter. Signs on vacant lots &c were not counted.
This morning's walk for groceries (through residential streets) revealed a low sign count of: Conservative (1), Liberal (3), NDP (3), and Green (2). A usual Conservative supporter did not have a sign up, but perhaps that's coming. Ditto for the usual CPC supporter. Signs on vacant lots &c were not counted.
What does "CPC" stand for there? I would have assumed "Conservative Party of Canada", but you seem to be talking about the CPC and the Conservatives as if they're two different parties.
This shows my age. For many years CPC was the abbreviation for the Communist Party of Canada, and CPC-ML for the Communist Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist. The Conservative initials were PC. I fear I used the archaic initials from reflex.
This shows my age. For many years CPC was the abbreviation for the Communist Party of Canada, and CPC-ML for the Communist Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist. The Conservative initials were PC. I fear I used the archaic initials from reflex.
Thanks. I was thinking it might be the Communist Party Of Canada, but despite following fringe parties fairly closely, I wasn't sure if I have ever seen lawn signs for either them or the anti-revisionists.
This shows my age. For many years CPC was the abbreviation for the Communist Party of Canada, and CPC-ML for the Communist Party of Canada Marxist-Leninist. The Conservative initials were PC. I fear I used the archaic initials from reflex.
Thanks. I was thinking it might be the Communist Party Of Canada, but despite following fringe parties fairly closely, I wasn't sure if I have ever seen lawn signs for either them or the anti-revisionists.
Look at the old Italian quarter in Ottawa, where both CPC and CPC-ML signs have been seen at elections (primarily provincial) in the past 10 years. One CPC candidate was a stalwart of all-candidates meetings and was a better speaker than most of the mainline candidates. I also saw a few Communist signs around Jean-Talon métro on the weekend-- not certain which riding.
One mischievous acquaintance holds that the Rhinos have been integrated into the new Conservative party. His wife, however, holds that they are the new Liberal policy committee. It all depends on one's perspective, I suppose.
Yesterday the first canvass (Liberal)-- more signs are up and the count is now 2 Conservative, 7 Liberal, 10 NDP, and 2 Green. The NDP did a paper drop on my street-- they may have had live canvassers, but if so I missed them. Not a sign of the Conservatives so far, but there have only been two door canvasses in the past ten years AFAIK.
Shipmates may be interested to learn that the Radio-Canada interview programme Tout le Monde en Parle (Everybody's Talking About It) will feature Carney and Polièvre this evening-- I'm not sure if Mr Singh will be on it. I suspect that this will be worth more of a watch than the debates. TLMP is an incredible barometer of opinion in French Canada and the audience is an impressive 1.3 million (out of roughly 6 million francophones). Many believe that Jack Layton's single appearance swung dozens of Québec seats to the NDP.
My informal poll of francophone friends (in Montréal the past weekend, and in Ottawa this week) suggests that they want: a) a PM who can make sense in French, b) one who pays serious attention to the cultural reality of Québec in addition to the social and economic challenges which face all provinces, and c) who can deal with Mr Trump in whatever language he uses. Mercifully francophones are generous in spirit about the correct use of the subjunctive and the gender of nouns, much more so than my examiners ever were.
The park across the street from my apartment (a long, linear one with a bike path) is turning into a battleground of signs. I never put stock in signs on public property but the Liberals are using this "Vote Liberal" yellow and black sticker on top of their signs which to my eye looks far too close to Elections Canada's colours and logo.
Liberal operatives planted "stop the steal" buttons at conservative conference
Our low-rent ratfuckers didn't do a particularly good job of keeping their scheming clandestine. And these sorta scandals make Liberals' exclamations of of horror at the "americanuzation" of our politics ring rather hollow, as distributing such material, even for purposes of entrapment, guarantees that more people will see and possibly by swayed by the supposedly harmful message.
I thought they were REALLY cool from about late elementary to late middle school, but after a while they kinda faded from my zone of taste, maybe in the same sorta way as Royal Canadian Air Farce did in the same period.
One interesting thing is that, from my understanding, the Rhinos, while not sovereigntist per se, had their roots in a Quebec political subculture that was at least sovereigntist-tolerant and preoccupied with many of the relevant issues(*). Yet I'm also pretty sure that the block of cynical Albertans I knew who joked about voting Rhino because "at least they admit politics is a joke" overlapped substantially with the more francophobic factions in the province(*).
(*) Charlie McKenzie, for example, gave an admiring blurb to THE BLACK BOOK OF ENGLISH CANADA.
(**) Alberta rednecks eventually came to despise Trudeau's bi-and-bi more than Levesque's separatism(eventually even allying with the latter in the Mulroney coalition), but in the early days from about the mid-70s to the early 80s, there was a lot of amorphous anti-French sentiment that talked about the federal Liberals and the PQ as if they were the same group.
Comments
Here before Christ?
Hereby closed.
As good a guess as any I think.
Election turnout in 2021 was about 62%-- if it is much over 70% this time, then I think most of March's predictions will be interesting, but probably not useful-- if turnout is over 75%.... My own feeling is that 3-way races and the door-knocking war will give us a few surprising results, but I've not looked at numbers or talked to canvassers over a glass, so am not guessing at this stage.
Anything other than a Conservative majority would be a disaster for the Canadian economy.
Carney has been promising a conservative-lite style government (his platform is mostly stolen from that of Poilierve), but his history (both in word and deed) proves he is far from that.
This is the end for me on this thread. I expect it will become more heated a debate than I am comfortable with. You all know where I stand.
Just saw a headline that Smith is suggesting that Trump postpone the tariffs until after the Canadian election. Assuming that's the most favourable option at the present time(ie. try to get Trump to keep kickin' the can indefinitely), she gets a cookie if she can make that happen.
Well, I can only speak for myself, but I wasn't planning to engage in any "heated" attacks against you during the campaign, and it's good to have a minority viewpoint to avoid devolving into an echo-chamber. But you gotta do what you're comfortable with.
Quite possibly, yeah.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-premier-smith-u-s-canada-election-interference-breitbart-1.7491318
I respect your opinions, even if I disagree with them. You've never made it personal.
I sometimes wonder how much of a swing effect is a product of turnout, as opposed to voters actually changing their minds. I remember discussing this in relation to Florida’s swing state status and somebody much more familiar with Florida politics than I am assured me it was entirely a question of whether north or South Florida turned out in greater numbers.
Examples?
Thanks. Hadn't heard about that, as I haven't started following the federal election that closely.
Probably softens the blow that the immediate offendee was one of his own candidates, and for probably obvious reasons she's choosing not to make an issue of it.
My semi-educated guess was that Concordia came to Carney's mind because that's where Valery Fabrikant carried out another mass shooting a few years later.
I have met the candidate on a few occasions in my former life, and I think it be safe to say that she has expressed herself very clearly, and that observers may note that campaign staff will be seen limping over the next few days.
Carney accused of plagiarism for doctoral thesis
Liberal Leader Mark Carney has been accused of taking other people’s ideas as his own in the federal election campaign. It isn’t new. The National Post obtained a copy of Carney’s 1995 thesis for his doctorate in economics from Oxford University titled “The Dynamic Advantage of Competition.” It shows 10 instances of apparent plagiarism, according to the judgment of three university academics who reviewed the material. In several sections of his thesis, Carney used full quotes, paraphrases, or slightly modified quotes from four previous works without proper acknowledgement or attribution. Carney’s campaign at first provided a statement from his doctoral supervisor at Oxford University. “I believe you are mischaracterizing this work. As an academic of nearly 40 years, I see no evidence of plagiarism in the thesis you cited nor any unusual academic practices,” said Margaret Meyer, Official Fellow of Economics at Nuffield College, in the provided statement. Clink the link to read the full story www.nationalpost.com
I'm sorry, I know a post-graduate degree is by no means an essential qualification to the run the country, but the disparity in intelligence, education, and real-world experience between the Liberal and Conservative leaders is so vast that I don't think attacking Carney on whether he cited his sources correctly in his thesis is a winning strategy for the Conservatives. But to be fair I don't really understand why any of their strategies are winning, so I'm pretty biased.
"Monday's event at the Saint John cruise terminal was tightly controlled by Poilievre's handlers, who chose in advance which four reporters would be able to ask one question each. CBC News was not one of the chosen.
The leader was introduced by John Williamson, who represented Saint John–St. Croix in the last Parliament, and he stood for photos with Williamson and Melissa Young, the candidate for Saint John–Kennebecasis.
The crowd was small, mostly Conservative Party insiders and the news media. There was no visible representation from the business community or Irving Oil, which has a refinery in the city.
Poilievre was then expected to travel to Fredericton for a rally, followed by a stop in St. John's on Tuesday and a rally Tuesday in Charlottetown. "
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/pipeline-tariffs-trade-oil-1.7498079
When the Federal Progressive Conservatives were still around, did non-radical Quebec nationalists (whether they were soft separatists or just autonomists) prefer to have them in government over the Liberals? Is this situation different with the current Conservative Party?
I know the Bloc is different from whatever nationalist party is currently stronger at the provincial level in Quebec, and that Legault and his CAQ party are more small-c conservative than the Bloc, but when Legault said in a previous election that he would prefer to work with a Conservative Federal government, how widespread was that sentiment among nationalist and autonomist voters in Quebec? Has that sentiment changed?
If you’re pro-Quebec autonomy and protecting the French language but don’t want another independence referendum, absent Trump’s threats to Canada’s sovereignty, would you be more likely to think Quebec could get a better deal from the Federal Liberals or Conservatives? Or does it change depending on the leaders of the major parties and the chances of a minority government (which would give the Bloc more negotiating power)?
It kinda depends on the situation. Historically, the tories were allied with the pro-clerical faction among Quebec Catholics(at the same time they were high-fiving the Orangeman of Ontario), and the Liberals allied with the anti-clerical liberal faction. Despite pulling stunts like the hanging of Louis Riel and screaming for conscription during the world wars, les bleus did occassionally manage to swing a bulk of the seats in Quebec.
In 1982, Pierre Trudeau repatriated the Constitution with a Charter Of Rights, but Quebec refused to sign on, because they worried the individualistic bent of the Charter would hamper their protection of the French language within the province(Trudeau wanted Canada as a whole to be bilingual, and ridiculed his home province's claim to being uniquely French within Confederation). This led to a smooth-talking labour-lawyer named Brian Mulroney taking the tory leadership and winning the 1984 election, partly on a promise to change the constitution to make it more amenable to Quebec's aspirations.
Long story short, both of Mulroney's proposals failed(with off-set heckling from Pierre Trudeau both times), but he did manage to sweep Quebec again in '88 on the popularity of free-trade. By '93, the whole country was sick of the Conservatives, and elected Trudeau-protege Jean Chretien to a majority, but Quebec swung over to the Bloc, presumably because they no longer trusted Canada, especially Liberals, to respect their self-perceived cultural uniqueness.
IIRC, the Bloc continued dominate the province's Ottawa contingent until 2011, when they swung over to the socialist NDP, who were going outta their way to appear sympathetic to Quebec. Stephen Harper always managed to hold a semi-respectable Conservative rump in the province, but they never warmed to his party, even when they were voting for similar outfits like the CAQ provincially. I think it was just a case of Quebec being social democrat, and Harper being viewed as a standard neoliberal.
Quebec jumped aboard Justinmania in 2015, but the Bloc has made a comeback since then. With Trump's anneationist rantings prompting the singing of Oh Canada in English by Quebec fans, I wouldn't expect a rehash of anti-Canadian grievances to be a hot-seller in Quebec during the present election. No predictions on the actual outcome.
It is still three weeks until voting day but I'm not sure that P2 can expect a major shift in his direction. I get the feeling that, while his French is better than the PM's, he will not be the beneficiary of Québec voters' liking for a strong guy. We'll see soon enough.
For clarity, my reference above to stress levels refers to acquaintances of all three parties, the Conservative trying to figure out how to reverse the popular sentiment in favour of the PM, 2 NDP friends worried about their voters going for "progressive solidarity," and 2 Liberals not quite believing their eyes and fearing that their lead will evaporate like the mist in the three days before voting. At an advanced age, I comfort myself with another cortado and the positive admiration of the local cats.
However, we have an interesting young friend who is running for the Greens in a nearby riding and hope she will do well.
Pretty sure I've seen more Liberal than Conservative or NDP signs hereabouts, but the latter two certainly have visible representation, disproportionate to their historical performance in this riding.
Still debating whether I will get a sign for our NDP candidate. I intend to vote for her, but I am still keeping back that mental reservation that if for some reason things flipped and it looked like the Conservatives (or our particular Conservative candidate) were gaining strength, I might bite the bullet and vote Liberal.
I'm just back from Montréal (Rosemont-La Pètite-Patrie, Laurier-Sainte Marie, Hochelaga, eastern tip of Outremont) where there are not a lot of lawn signs but telephone poles are well-plastered, primarily Liberal and Bloc, with a sprinkling of NDP (primarily Alexandre Boulerice), and one or two Green.
In my own turf, it is a Joel Hardens (NDP)/ Yasir Naqvi face-off. My own experience of Mr Hardens suggested that he was shallow and performative but I have recently seen an in-depth interview which suggests he's been hiding his analytical intellect. Yasir was Mrs Wynne's Attorney General where my lawyer friends credit him with shaping up the courts. The Conservative candidate, a retired officer, has just come out of the woodwork (I've only seen one sign so far). So I'll head to the all-candidates in a week to see how they all show in the town hall setting.
Three weeks to go.
The NDP is outdoing the Liberals in signs two to one in my neighbourhood.
The only Conservative signs I have seen are on public property in parks and at transit terminals. They don't count as ditches don't vote.
All campaigns have plastered the bike bath I take to work with signs.
What does "CPC" stand for there? I would have assumed "Conservative Party of Canada", but you seem to be talking about the CPC and the Conservatives as if they're two different parties.
Just walked past a house with multiple signs for both the NDP and Conservative candidates. Go figure.
Thanks. I was thinking it might be the Communist Party Of Canada, but despite following fringe parties fairly closely, I wasn't sure if I have ever seen lawn signs for either them or the anti-revisionists.
Look at the old Italian quarter in Ottawa, where both CPC and CPC-ML signs have been seen at elections (primarily provincial) in the past 10 years. One CPC candidate was a stalwart of all-candidates meetings and was a better speaker than most of the mainline candidates. I also saw a few Communist signs around Jean-Talon métro on the weekend-- not certain which riding.
One mischievous acquaintance holds that the Rhinos have been integrated into the new Conservative party. His wife, however, holds that they are the new Liberal policy committee. It all depends on one's perspective, I suppose.
Shipmates may be interested to learn that the Radio-Canada interview programme Tout le Monde en Parle (Everybody's Talking About It) will feature Carney and Polièvre this evening-- I'm not sure if Mr Singh will be on it. I suspect that this will be worth more of a watch than the debates. TLMP is an incredible barometer of opinion in French Canada and the audience is an impressive 1.3 million (out of roughly 6 million francophones). Many believe that Jack Layton's single appearance swung dozens of Québec seats to the NDP.
My informal poll of francophone friends (in Montréal the past weekend, and in Ottawa this week) suggests that they want: a) a PM who can make sense in French, b) one who pays serious attention to the cultural reality of Québec in addition to the social and economic challenges which face all provinces, and c) who can deal with Mr Trump in whatever language he uses. Mercifully francophones are generous in spirit about the correct use of the subjunctive and the gender of nouns, much more so than my examiners ever were.
The park across the street from my apartment (a long, linear one with a bike path) is turning into a battleground of signs. I never put stock in signs on public property but the Liberals are using this "Vote Liberal" yellow and black sticker on top of their signs which to my eye looks far too close to Elections Canada's colours and logo.
Our low-rent ratfuckers didn't do a particularly good job of keeping their scheming clandestine. And these sorta scandals make Liberals' exclamations of of horror at the "americanuzation" of our politics ring rather hollow, as distributing such material, even for purposes of entrapment, guarantees that more people will see and possibly by swayed by the supposedly harmful message.
I thought they were REALLY cool from about late elementary to late middle school, but after a while they kinda faded from my zone of taste, maybe in the same sorta way as Royal Canadian Air Farce did in the same period.
One interesting thing is that, from my understanding, the Rhinos, while not sovereigntist per se, had their roots in a Quebec political subculture that was at least sovereigntist-tolerant and preoccupied with many of the relevant issues(*). Yet I'm also pretty sure that the block of cynical Albertans I knew who joked about voting Rhino because "at least they admit politics is a joke" overlapped substantially with the more francophobic factions in the province(*).
(*) Charlie McKenzie, for example, gave an admiring blurb to THE BLACK BOOK OF ENGLISH CANADA.
(**) Alberta rednecks eventually came to despise Trudeau's bi-and-bi more than Levesque's separatism(eventually even allying with the latter in the Mulroney coalition), but in the early days from about the mid-70s to the early 80s, there was a lot of amorphous anti-French sentiment that talked about the federal Liberals and the PQ as if they were the same group.