Are we entering a Thucydides Trap?
In the dialog between Xi and Trump, Xi warned Trump not to stand in the way of China acquiring Tiawan.
Thucydides postulated when a rising power challenges the established power, there will inevitably be war.
While the US considers itself the established power, looks like Xi thinks we have gone beyond our zenith. The war against Iran shows how weak we have become. So far, we have not opened the Strait of Hormuz.
If we cannot guarantee open commerce there, will we be able to defend Tiawan.
What Xi was looking for was the US would say it opposes Tiawan independence, Our official statement is we do not support the independence of Tiawan.
Trump, seems to have listened to his advisors not to change the wording for now.
But it seems China has agreed to work through back channels to get Iran to reach an agreement with the US in regards to Hormuz.
It seems to me if they are able to achieve that goal, we will then owe them a favor.
Is Tiawan something Trump will give up?
Thucydides postulated when a rising power challenges the established power, there will inevitably be war.
While the US considers itself the established power, looks like Xi thinks we have gone beyond our zenith. The war against Iran shows how weak we have become. So far, we have not opened the Strait of Hormuz.
If we cannot guarantee open commerce there, will we be able to defend Tiawan.
What Xi was looking for was the US would say it opposes Tiawan independence, Our official statement is we do not support the independence of Tiawan.
Trump, seems to have listened to his advisors not to change the wording for now.
But it seems China has agreed to work through back channels to get Iran to reach an agreement with the US in regards to Hormuz.
It seems to me if they are able to achieve that goal, we will then owe them a favor.
Is Tiawan something Trump will give up?
Comments
There's nothing he wouldn't do out of self interest.
So the only question is 'Is this in trump's self interest? Of course, that changes moment by moment it the toddler"s mind
The UK celebrated when the King played him. Not so much now Xi is doing the same.
Oh, unless "we" put all our eggs in a single semiconductor basket located on Taiwan. Then "we" get to meddle because "we" are stupid.
"We"are gonna FAFO there too, it seems. Since when does America's word mean anything regarding anything, most of all Taiwan.
AFF
The only people who have any right to decide in this are the people of Taiwan. If they want to be part of China, that is up to them. If they do not want to be, and that is the impression that I in my relative ignorance have, then China has no claim on the island, no more claim than it had when it appropriated Tibet, or than Trump has to Greenland, Canada, Mexico or Venezuela or Putin to Ukraine.
That's it, and as they say 'end of'.
Right may not prevail over might. It often does not. It did not with Tibet. But that does not stop the rights and wrongs from being clear.
You forgot to mention Cuba. It is hanging on just by a thread.
Amen.
Amen.
As I mentioned on the Heaven thread we were in Taiwan last month. I don’t speak the language but Ms. Marsupial spent a lot of time talking to shopkeepers, museum guides, etc. - not about politics per se, but it’s clear they are proud to be Taiwanese and have no interest in becoming part of the PRC.
Curiously central Taipei doesn’t look altogether unlike central Guangzhou - they are very large cities to a large extent of the same vintage and in similar climate zones - but based on relatively short trips to both places they feel very different, and Taipei generally the happier place. (People are also very friendly - we were wandering around looking lost in Taipei main station the morning we arrived and someone not only showed us to the right subway platform but also made sure we knew which side of the platform to board the train - though speaking the language is pretty essential.)