If he wins, he has to face the music about where his money comes from and nobody will ever forget that he was almost defeated by a bin. If he loses, we have The Rt. Hon. Count Binface MP and the media will quickly lose interest in Farage whining about his defeat. Either way, we win.
I've been wondering what would happen in the event of a Farage defeat.
I don't think the media would lose interest. They'd continue to report him whining from the sidelines.
What I do think would happen is that Reform would splinter into fissaporous groups all claiming the 'establishment' has done the dirty on them.
I think Robert Jenrick is waiting in the wings hoping to step in, while claiming to fully support Farage. He's got himself in several spots of bother lately. Firstly by putting illegal signs up on the A46 in protest at the government pulling plans to dual a bit of it, and secondly by claiming Jo White, new immigration minister said she wasn't bothered about stopping the boats and had an audio clip to prove it. Turns out the clip was doctored as she'd said the opposite. Of course Jenrick hasn't apologised for either stunt.
If he wins he'll believe he's entitled to do so. If he loses it will be everyone else's fault.
At this point he doesn't just need to win, he needs to win convincingly. If he wins, but with a reduced vote share because the majority of the electorate who voted preferred a bin or Monster Raving Loonies he'll be in a total mess - one of his own making, of course. His appeal to the people of Clacton will have fallen flat, and he'll still have to face Parliamentary enquiries about the £5m "gift" and whether it should have been declared (IMO, for what that's worth, there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with the gift itself - it's perfectly OK for rich people to give their money to support politicians, and outwith election campaigns there's no real limit on what can be given, or what it can be spent on so long as that's clearly within the purpose it was given for - the problem is that he decided not to declare a legitimate donation and then weasel out of that whereas an "oops, sorry, as it was spent on personal security so I could continue to be politically active I should have declared that" would have likely resulted in only a mild slap on the wrist and a "don't do it again"). He may have dodged Parliamentary investigations into some of the other gifts and donations that have come to light since then. I personally don't think he will lose, the turnout is likely to be low and the Reform stalwarts will vote, but it's not going to do him any good.
The leadership contest would be like Kilkenny cats. Not sure I have that much popcorn.
Why would there be a leadership contest? The party belongs to Farage.
They will have no parliamentary leader if he loses.
Even if he wins he's going to look a complete flat bottomed boat at the results next to all those joke candidates. I doubt it will persuade the headbangers to vote elsewhete, but it'll take a lot of explaining to anyone he'd like money from in future.
It's not a real political party. It's a limited company and Farage owns it.
@Gamma Gamaliel you may be right that the media will continue to report on him, but I suspect a lot of his erstwhile supporters will get tired of his whining. Complaining about being hard done by when you have multiple mansions and friends who can just casually hand you £5m is not a good look. Maybe I'm being over-optimistic...
I agree with @Alan Cresswell , I think he'll get in but with a reduced majority. He'll look silly but that won't sway convinced Reform supporters.
It's not stopped them voting Reform in the past, although admittedly this is his biggest gaff to date.
The question is, how many convinces Reform supporters are there? And, how much of the Reform vote over the last few years has been from people who haven't really thought much about who they are voting for, but saw Reform (and in particular Farage) as a viable alternative to traditional parties who (somewhat unfairly) have been seen as being in it for themselves rather than working for the people? If the convinced supporters still vote Reform that's not going to get them far if they depend on convincing a large number of floating voters that they offer a real alternative - and, at the moment, Farage is just showing everyone that he's just in it for himself which is going to turn away some of those who have previously voted Reform.
Anecdotally (with all the associated caveats) out campaigning ahead of the May elections, before the £5m was known about, it was evident that people on the doorstep in areas we'd worked in 2025 for a by-election were much less likely to say "I'm voting Reform", they weren't any more likely to say they were voting for us, but there was more reluctance to admit to supporting Reform. And, the election results generally reflected that with a fall in right wing support and for that constituency a Reform drop from 26% to 23%. So, it does seem that even without the £5m "gift" and the by-election stunt the only way Reform can now go is down. Whether that's going down fast enough is another matter.
Sure. I can't say too much but my own observations accord with that, @Alan Cresswell . There does seem to be a plateau-ing out of support but not a landslide away from Reform.
Suella Braverman is now Reform, enjoys a massive majority in her constituency and is (sadly, bafflingly) popular with Reform and Tory voters. I'm surprised her name hasn't been mentioned more.
Suella Braverman is...(sadly, bafflingly) popular with Reform and Tory voters.
Why is that baffling? Based on what I've seen of her, she's exactly the kind of politician who'd be popular with almost all Reform voters, and at least the right wing of the Tories.
Last time a predecessor party tried either a mixed race leader or a female leader it did not end well,the mixed race guy got knocked out in the EU parliament building and the woman resigned in less than 50 days irrc.
Suella Braverman is...(sadly, bafflingly) popular with Reform and Tory voters.
Why is that baffling? Based on what I've seen of her, she's exactly the kind of politician who'd be popular with almost all Reform voters, and at least the right wing of the Tories.
I meant that it's baffling that anyone would be a fan of hers.
Suella Braverman is...(sadly, bafflingly) popular with Reform and Tory voters.
Why is that baffling? Based on what I've seen of her, she's exactly the kind of politician who'd be popular with almost all Reform voters, and at least the right wing of the Tories.
I meant that it's baffling that anyone would be a fan of hers.
I think it’s a sad reflection of modern society where so many people in so many countries have these views.
I've just had a 'newsletter' through the door from my Reform MP in which he claims he will do all sorts of amazing things when Reform are the next government. He backed it up with a poll that claimed he was on 40% in this Constituency with Labour on 20% and Conservatives on 17%. I've seen another poll recently that claimed Reform were on 28, Labour on 24 and Conservatives on 20 round here. Goodness knows what the truth is.
Was there any information about the poll (organisation that conducted it and who funded it, number of people asked, where it's published etc)? Without citable sources, statements about "the polls say" by politicians are meaningless, barely better than numbers invented out of thin air.
Reform are presumably feeling the need to beat their own drum, as it were, and I suspect that, as @Alan Cresswell implies, these are indeed meaningless figures.
There's been little about the odious Farage and his stooges in the more responsible media outlets which are concentrating on the new PM here, and the climate disaster in Europe.
The next interesting events are, I suppose, the Manchester mayoral election on Thursday (AFAIK), followed by the Clacton circus act, starring Count Binface and a joke candidate or several...
Farage, it seems, is bring kept quiet by the balance rules in an election. If anything he says is broadcast, the broadcasters will have to find another candidate to ask. There's an obvious candidate...
Farage, it seems, is bring kept quiet by the balance rules in an election. If anything he says is broadcast, the broadcasters will have to find another candidate to ask. There's an obvious candidate...
And 32 other candidates. I’m not any of our media have the resources to do “balanced” journalism, hence the generalised output, which won’t make for the traditional silly season.
He needs to hand over the keys to his social media to someone responsible and savvy. As everything will be scrutinised and interpreted in the worst possible light and double standards will be in play, it's irresponsible for him to just be casually hitting 'like' on any passing post that takes his fancy. He needs someone to take charge of his comms.
He needs to hand over the keys to his social media to someone responsible and savvy. As everything will be scrutinised and interpreted in the worst possible light and double standards will be in play, it's irresponsible for him to just be casually hitting 'like' on any passing post that takes his fancy. He needs someone to take charge of his comms.
Was there any information about the poll (organisation that conducted it and who funded it, number of people asked, where it's published etc)? Without citable sources, statements about "the polls say" by politicians are meaningless, barely better than numbers invented out of thin air.
The company was Merlin Strategy. Some interesting information about them with a quick Google search. Although it said the poll was conducted in June this year it didn't say what question people were asked, who was questioned or sample size.
He needs to hand over the keys to his social media to someone responsible and savvy. As everything will be scrutinised and interpreted in the worst possible light and double standards will be in play, it's irresponsible for him to just be casually hitting 'like' on any passing post that takes his fancy. He needs someone to take charge of his comms.
Desperately.
The Green Party said that Polanski shared the photo "without realising there was more to it than he had seen". Which makes me wonder what exactly Polanski thought he WAS looking at, since apart from the image on the t-shirt, it's just a guy flashing a V sign.
He needs to hand over the keys to his social media to someone responsible and savvy. As everything will be scrutinised and interpreted in the worst possible light and double standards will be in play, it's irresponsible for him to just be casually hitting 'like' on any passing post that takes his fancy. He needs someone to take charge of his comms.
Desperately.
The Green Party said that Polanski shared the photo "without realising there was more to it than he had seen". Which makes me wonder what exactly Polanski thought he WAS looking at, since apart from the image on the t-shirt, it's just a guy flashing a V sign.
It appears that what he had seen was a collection of 20 photos from an event, and he had failed to look at each of the photos properly and so hadn't spotted the "making plans for Nigel" T shirt.
He needs to hand over the keys to his social media to someone responsible and savvy. As everything will be scrutinised and interpreted in the worst possible light and double standards will be in play, it's irresponsible for him to just be casually hitting 'like' on any passing post that takes his fancy. He needs someone to take charge of his comms.
Desperately.
The Green Party said that Polanski shared the photo "without realising there was more to it than he had seen". Which makes me wonder what exactly Polanski thought he WAS looking at, since apart from the image on the t-shirt, it's just a guy flashing a V sign.
It appears that what he had seen was a collection of 20 photos from an event, and he had failed to look at each of the photos properly and so hadn't spotted the "making plans for Nigel" T shirt.
Yeah, I just re-read the Guardian article. That's correct.
I have a friend who is very politically knowledgeable and active in the Labour party but he often shares and likes social media posts without clicking through to check out the account and what they're like. I've several times read him the riot act for reposting stuff from bigoted accounts or moral panic type stuff he hasn't checked out.
He complains that he shouldn't have to do that and that I'm being unreasonable and expecting too much. Maybe I am but I think if you dont want to spread hate and misinformation then there's some basic due diligence to be done. But it's not an uncommon attitude to just casually repost stuff without a lot of scrutiny.
If a high-profile politician doesn't have the time or inclination to scrutinise things carefully, then they really do need someone to do it for them who does the research and is paid to have the time to do it.
Essentially, your friend is not taking respomsibility for what they're posting or reposting.
Mrs RR gets 'Christian' stuff from several friends that they've reposted without them commenting on, editing, or even reading and inwardly digesting. It's sad, lazy and, I'm afraid, stupid.
'Against stupidity the gods themselves rail in vane'
Comments
I've been wondering what would happen in the event of a Farage defeat.
I don't think the media would lose interest. They'd continue to report him whining from the sidelines.
What I do think would happen is that Reform would splinter into fissaporous groups all claiming the 'establishment' has done the dirty on them.
Imagine a cloud of gnats.
Why would there be a leadership contest? The party belongs to Farage.
They will have no parliamentary leader if he loses.
Even if he wins he's going to look a complete flat bottomed boat at the results next to all those joke candidates. I doubt it will persuade the headbangers to vote elsewhete, but it'll take a lot of explaining to anyone he'd like money from in future.
@Gamma Gamaliel you may be right that the media will continue to report on him, but I suspect a lot of his erstwhile supporters will get tired of his whining. Complaining about being hard done by when you have multiple mansions and friends who can just casually hand you £5m is not a good look. Maybe I'm being over-optimistic...
Convinced Reform voters would vote for a clothes peg if it stood for election - or if someone put it forward rather.
I agree with @Alan Cresswell , I think he'll get in but with a reduced majority. He'll look silly but that won't sway convinced Reform supporters.
It's not stopped them voting Reform in the past, although admittedly this is his biggest gaff to date.
I could envisage a leadership challenge which would be interesting seeing as he owns Reform. Would any successful leadership challenger buy him out?
😉
Would a crypto-currency billionaire stump up the money for them to do so?
Anecdotally (with all the associated caveats) out campaigning ahead of the May elections, before the £5m was known about, it was evident that people on the doorstep in areas we'd worked in 2025 for a by-election were much less likely to say "I'm voting Reform", they weren't any more likely to say they were voting for us, but there was more reluctance to admit to supporting Reform. And, the election results generally reflected that with a fall in right wing support and for that constituency a Reform drop from 26% to 23%. So, it does seem that even without the £5m "gift" and the by-election stunt the only way Reform can now go is down. Whether that's going down fast enough is another matter.
Time will tell.
Why is that baffling? Based on what I've seen of her, she's exactly the kind of politician who'd be popular with almost all Reform voters, and at least the right wing of the Tories.
Checked: Guy who was knocked out was planning to run for leader.
Diane James lasted 18 days as leader.
I meant that it's baffling that anyone would be a fan of hers.
I think it’s a sad reflection of modern society where so many people in so many countries have these views.
There's been little about the odious Farage and his stooges in the more responsible media outlets which are concentrating on the new PM here, and the climate disaster in Europe.
The next interesting events are, I suppose, the Manchester mayoral election on Thursday (AFAIK), followed by the Clacton circus act, starring Count Binface and a joke candidate or several...
And 32 other candidates. I’m not any of our media have the resources to do “balanced” journalism, hence the generalised output, which won’t make for the traditional silly season.
Desperately.
The company was Merlin Strategy. Some interesting information about them with a quick Google search. Although it said the poll was conducted in June this year it didn't say what question people were asked, who was questioned or sample size.
The Green Party said that Polanski shared the photo "without realising there was more to it than he had seen". Which makes me wonder what exactly Polanski thought he WAS looking at, since apart from the image on the t-shirt, it's just a guy flashing a V sign.
Yeah, I just re-read the Guardian article. That's correct.
He complains that he shouldn't have to do that and that I'm being unreasonable and expecting too much. Maybe I am but I think if you dont want to spread hate and misinformation then there's some basic due diligence to be done. But it's not an uncommon attitude to just casually repost stuff without a lot of scrutiny.
If a high-profile politician doesn't have the time or inclination to scrutinise things carefully, then they really do need someone to do it for them who does the research and is paid to have the time to do it.
Mrs RR gets 'Christian' stuff from several friends that they've reposted without them commenting on, editing, or even reading and inwardly digesting. It's sad, lazy and, I'm afraid, stupid.
'Against stupidity the gods themselves rail in vane'
He didn't cover himself with glory.