I have my doubts about whether we even have any freaking masons. Surely our numbers are pretty low by now, and no sign of them. And if I'm not the detective, who the hell is? Because nobody else is reporting back to y'all.
Naomi looks up from reading Judges, "I'm inclined to think no mason either. I've been disinclined to lynch since I don't want to be responsible for killing innocents; however, cats aren't human so I'll nominate Nem"
I don't get the nomination (or accusation) of Nem, if she's innocent and not a Mason (so has no hidden knowledge). An innocent Naomi would have seen that Steve, the person she suspected yesterday, was nominated already, and that I was thinking about nominating her or Fifi. An innocent Naomi would want to persuade us that someone was a better bet than her, but would have no better reason to prefer Nem to Fifi in that case, and presumably at least a slight reason to prefer Steve. She has two people she could plausibly make a case against. Why bring in a third? It doesn't look like she has any particular reason to think Nem guilty.
I can make a bit more sense of it if Naomi's guilty. She might be trying to put up one innocent nominee before I pick a guilty one. Or she might be accusing another guilty person to give them cover if she thinks she might be voted out. Or, if there are (at least) two innocents amongst the unknown pool of five, she might want the first two nominees to be innocent and think we won't risk splitting the vote with a third.
Anyway, the key point is that a guilty Naomi has a reason to distinguish Nem, Fifi and Steve, and plan with that in mind, because she knows which of them are guilty. To an innocent Naomi, they must all look very likely to be guilty, and the smart play would be the pick the most plausible of them apart from her.
So I think it's her. That's not certain, but I think it's credible.
So we've Steve, Nem and Naomi on the roster. I doubt Steve is dangerous: so disengaged. Nem has been quite silent, but who knows? Could Nem be silent Mafia? in the background, waiting to pounce? But we could say that about any quiet ones, so that's not really persuasive.
Mario understands now what he didn't get earlier: that some action is probably better than none. No lynching doesn't help us shoot the fish in the barrel. There's 8 in the barrel. Do we actually know how many mafia there are? Don't think so. From the way the game is structured, could it be 2 or 3, or even 4? Just 1 makes no sense. I suspect three. Which means we have 3/8 chance of being right if we vote to lynch. Which of the three... I'm not going to sew further doubt, but just wait a little to see if there's further argument and reasoning. So I'm signalling intent only to follow Ethan so far.
Discussion: Ethan's reasoning is persuasive, but is it based on fact or intuition? But then there are so few facts. I'm leaning Naomi because of Ethan's reasoning and intuition, while waiting to see if there's any further argument anyone else. Ethan's comment about the smart play is good too. Meanwhile, going off to smoke some Mariohuana, having given up prayer (where did that get us? people killed!) and yoga (too much effort).
(hope to see more responses, we need this game to keep moving please for it to resemble fun)
From a starting point of 12, I'm assuming 3 Mafia members, and probably a similar number of roles, so a Detective, a Doctor, and A.N. Other. We have 3 people who can reasonably be considered innocent (Lambie, Ethan and myself), so the Mafia must be in the other 5, 3 of whom have now been nominated, so probability says at least one of them will be Mafia, and I'm also leaning towards it not being Steve now.
I think we're definitely missing Dai, it's gone rather quiet in here. 'Maybe that's why they bumped him off: flying under the radar is so much easier if the coverage is patchy to start with.
- Steve Huang, nominated by Penny Drago
- Nem the cat, nominated by Naomi Spinner, Apostle
- Naomi Spinner, Apostle, nominated by Ethan Eliab
- No lynching
Steve's probably innocent. I'm suspicious of Naomi's motives for nominating Nem (that doesn't mean Nem's innocent, necessarily, but no one has given reasons to suspect her more than any other unknown).
So unless Naomi gives me a damned good reason not to, it's currently my intention to vote out Naomi.
I will point out (with great trepidation) that given our current, er, torpid state of play, it's entirely possible that we may have a Mafioso who is similarly torpid. So I'm not sure that action OR inaction is much guide in this particular game.
Naomi somewhat regrets giving some of her survival gear (contained in Jonah that she gave to Karen). On the other hand Karen is the type, if she survived, who has the will and the power (assuming her husband hadn't become enamored with Judith) to come back seeking revenge.
"I will point out that I've consistently been opposed to lynching even though in Karen's case she turned out to be innocent after we pushed her off the island. If I were Mafia wouldn't I have delayed my vote before doing that? After all my vote might have been needed to ensure her removal."
Sure, Naomi, but neither Nem nor Steve has exactly been belligerent, and Mario and Fifi have been as pacifistic as you, so that doesn't really help in showing which of the unknowns is guilty. And since we can only win by voting people off, being consistently opposed to doing that isn't the best proof of innocence I can imagine. Yeah, I guess the bad guys aren't going to turn down the chance of getting rid of someone for free, but they also benefit from voting not to lynch someone they know is innocent, by being able to say "I told you so, I must be innocent" when we screw up and vote out the wrong person. You know, like you just did.
No one seems keen to commit themselves to a decision, and I've got to vote for someone. No one's given me reason to think Steve or Nem more likely to be guilty than the others, and I've got slightly more suspicion of you. So my vote is Naomi.
Mario has come to understand the rationale for voting people off per Ethan's explanation. The problem remains who, and based on what evidence. It's wee tiny snippets of evidence if the rest of the islanders are off sleeping somewhere. If that's all we have, given the killing that goes on overnight, then it is all we have. I'm waiting to see if there's anything further. We do not want to vote off another innocent person. The odds are improving as we have a smaller group and the proportion of bad to good is ?equal? ?close?.
Dame Fifi has been having a few Purely Medicinal applications to a green bottle. This is worse than that panto season in Thurso (my dears, the smell of fish). Perhaps if she votes for someone to leave, it will all be over? She's never liked that woman with the big hair and bigger bible. Perhaps just another bijou drinkette to settle the stomach.
Naomi votes Steve since she knows she isn't mafia. The Lord will soon strike down those who touch his anointed (though in this case she suspects He will use Satan to do his handiwork)
I wasn't so stoned that I just imagined I'd explained to everyone how we could win if only we had a vigilante, was I?
Didn't think so.
Look, guys, I know it's stressful and all, but the whole fucking point of the plan to say how we're going to nominate or vote, and then waiting for comments, and then actually nominating or voting, is to give people the chance to say things like, to take a wildly speculative example "Hey, I'm the vigilante, and I'm declaring at a point where it would be trivially easy to get an innocent majority". Because, you know, if people don't do that we might end up throwing away the mathematically certain victory that I've been trying to get. And we wouldn't want to do that, would we?
Oh, shit, turns out we would.
Still, it's not lost yet.
Mario, Nem, Fifi and Steve are still in the frame. Nem and Fifi look like the best prospects. Check out one, throw out the other (if the first is innocent) would be my advice. Too disillusioned to care which, at the moment.
I'm honestly really surprised she didn't actually stand up and say 'Hey I'm the Vigilante' once she'd been nominated. We could then have dug a bit deeper into our other options, as both Nem and Steve were up for removal.
(Feeling homesick for her feline company that looks startlingly like Nem.)
Ok, I reckon no one fancies betting their lives and careers on a nagging doubt that we never had a detective and Lanbie was shitting us from the get go. Especially as Dai was unreadable, a role that makes literally no sense absent a reader.
What we can’t rule out is a deliberate no kill order to support a false doctor claim, That’s not impossible. It would imply that there are only two bad guys, though, ‘cos with three, they didn’t need to play silly buggers and could have gone for the straight win.
More likely, though, we have a doctor, three known innocents, and no realistic way for the killers to stop us making four. And that’s a weight-of-metal win for the good guys.
And for once, I don’t need to give advance notice of my intent to nominate Mario.
Oh dear me, yes, we ARE being a little untidy, aren't we? I believe our dearly departed sister was making plans to depart our company in a less final way using this boat... we can use it to give her a viking funeral... my, what a lovely bunch of coconuts!
It would be nice if some of the other residents of this island would turn up to show their respects to Naomi, so that we can give her a decent send-off. I expect that we'll have to mount a search party for Mario though.
I'm surprised that the oh so efficient production company haven't shown up to do it on the grounds of health and hygiene, especially as I wouldn't trust the combustibility of coconuts.
I think the Mafia were going again for their tactic of trying to remove the talkative ones who want to find them, and leave the quieter, non-committal players as a way to win by apathy. I doubt the Doctor would protect anyone other than themself or a confirmed innocent, and the 'definitely citizens' group = the people who've engaged the most.
I'm not even going to ask who the doctor was guarding. I'm just pleased that they guessed right.
I hope the doctor's been diligently guarding Ms LaCosta, but just in case they are tempted to be clever tonight, I would point out that (assuming all detective guidance to be true) if Lambie is alive tomorrow morning, we've won. At least some of us are going home. The only way the bad guys can win is to take her out before her next report.
So, Doc, whoever you are (and bloody well done, by the way), once we've accounted for Mario, let's not play silly buggers. Guard Lambie, because they've got to try for her, now.
Oh, and Mazza, if one of Nem or Fifi is your co-conspirator, then I'll understand if you want to let them play this out, just on the off-chance that our doctor takes a few too many of his own meds. But if you're teamed with Steve, and he's still out for his very, very long lunch at the Apathé Café, you might consider throwing in one of Reality Island's very nice and only slightly bloodstained towels.
Comments
Hwyl Dai!
I don’t know what Lambie’s game is. A detective or a mason?
I don't get the nomination (or accusation) of Nem, if she's innocent and not a Mason (so has no hidden knowledge). An innocent Naomi would have seen that Steve, the person she suspected yesterday, was nominated already, and that I was thinking about nominating her or Fifi. An innocent Naomi would want to persuade us that someone was a better bet than her, but would have no better reason to prefer Nem to Fifi in that case, and presumably at least a slight reason to prefer Steve. She has two people she could plausibly make a case against. Why bring in a third? It doesn't look like she has any particular reason to think Nem guilty.
I can make a bit more sense of it if Naomi's guilty. She might be trying to put up one innocent nominee before I pick a guilty one. Or she might be accusing another guilty person to give them cover if she thinks she might be voted out. Or, if there are (at least) two innocents amongst the unknown pool of five, she might want the first two nominees to be innocent and think we won't risk splitting the vote with a third.
Anyway, the key point is that a guilty Naomi has a reason to distinguish Nem, Fifi and Steve, and plan with that in mind, because she knows which of them are guilty. To an innocent Naomi, they must all look very likely to be guilty, and the smart play would be the pick the most plausible of them apart from her.
So I think it's her. That's not certain, but I think it's credible.
Mario understands now what he didn't get earlier: that some action is probably better than none. No lynching doesn't help us shoot the fish in the barrel. There's 8 in the barrel. Do we actually know how many mafia there are? Don't think so. From the way the game is structured, could it be 2 or 3, or even 4? Just 1 makes no sense. I suspect three. Which means we have 3/8 chance of being right if we vote to lynch. Which of the three... I'm not going to sew further doubt, but just wait a little to see if there's further argument and reasoning. So I'm signalling intent only to follow Ethan so far.
Discussion: Ethan's reasoning is persuasive, but is it based on fact or intuition? But then there are so few facts. I'm leaning Naomi because of Ethan's reasoning and intuition, while waiting to see if there's any further argument anyone else. Ethan's comment about the smart play is good too. Meanwhile, going off to smoke some Mariohuana, having given up prayer (where did that get us? people killed!) and yoga (too much effort).
(hope to see more responses, we need this game to keep moving please for it to resemble fun)
Voting open
You may vote for
- Steve Huang, nominated by Penny Drago
- Nem the cat, nominated by Naomi Spinner, Apostle
- Naomi Spinner, Apostle, nominated by Ethan Eliab
- No lynching
So unless Naomi gives me a damned good reason not to, it's currently my intention to vote out Naomi.
Hard to think of anything that might incentivise them if the prospect of avoiding a voyage on Naomi's inflatable Ark, isn't enough, though.
"I will point out that I've consistently been opposed to lynching even though in Karen's case she turned out to be innocent after we pushed her off the island. If I were Mafia wouldn't I have delayed my vote before doing that? After all my vote might have been needed to ensure her removal."
No one seems keen to commit themselves to a decision, and I've got to vote for someone. No one's given me reason to think Steve or Nem more likely to be guilty than the others, and I've got slightly more suspicion of you. So my vote is Naomi.
I vote Naomi.
Hic.
Naomi lugs her trunk closer to the shore and eyes quick escape routes.
He'd exchange some Mario Huana for a wee dram from the green bottle of Dame Fifi. Might as well be a wee bit tipsy as worried.
I'd like to get the day done before Christmas, so I'm voting Naomi.
Naomi is lynched. She was the vigilante.
I didn't expect her to be the doctor as they would have claimed their role if things were looking dicey.
Didn't think so.
Look, guys, I know it's stressful and all, but the whole fucking point of the plan to say how we're going to nominate or vote, and then waiting for comments, and then actually nominating or voting, is to give people the chance to say things like, to take a wildly speculative example "Hey, I'm the vigilante, and I'm declaring at a point where it would be trivially easy to get an innocent majority". Because, you know, if people don't do that we might end up throwing away the mathematically certain victory that I've been trying to get. And we wouldn't want to do that, would we?
Oh, shit, turns out we would.
Still, it's not lost yet.
Mario, Nem, Fifi and Steve are still in the frame. Nem and Fifi look like the best prospects. Check out one, throw out the other (if the first is innocent) would be my advice. Too disillusioned to care which, at the moment.
I must admit I’ve been pretty distracted of late since discovering the impressive native butterfly species and how skittish they are.
Does this mean we still have a doctor & detective as well as 2/3 mafia?
So nominations are closed now & its just wait until dawn? I’m rubbish with days & dates at this time of year, especially on this bloody island.
(Feeling homesick for her feline company that looks startlingly like Nem.)
Hopefully we'll get moving again soon.
Well, I don’t know about you but I could hardly stand the tension. So, I’m so glad to have some good news.
It’s morning on the island and everyone is still alive!
I await Lambie's findings with great interest.
And it seems the Doctor got lucky.
Ok, I reckon no one fancies betting their lives and careers on a nagging doubt that we never had a detective and Lanbie was shitting us from the get go. Especially as Dai was unreadable, a role that makes literally no sense absent a reader.
What we can’t rule out is a deliberate no kill order to support a false doctor claim, That’s not impossible. It would imply that there are only two bad guys, though, ‘cos with three, they didn’t need to play silly buggers and could have gone for the straight win.
More likely, though, we have a doctor, three known innocents, and no realistic way for the killers to stop us making four. And that’s a weight-of-metal win for the good guys.
And for once, I don’t need to give advance notice of my intent to nominate Mario.
I'm surprised that the oh so efficient production company haven't shown up to do it on the grounds of health and hygiene, especially as I wouldn't trust the combustibility of coconuts.
I think the Mafia were going again for their tactic of trying to remove the talkative ones who want to find them, and leave the quieter, non-committal players as a way to win by apathy. I doubt the Doctor would protect anyone other than themself or a confirmed innocent, and the 'definitely citizens' group = the people who've engaged the most.
I hope the doctor's been diligently guarding Ms LaCosta, but just in case they are tempted to be clever tonight, I would point out that (assuming all detective guidance to be true) if Lambie is alive tomorrow morning, we've won. At least some of us are going home. The only way the bad guys can win is to take her out before her next report.
So, Doc, whoever you are (and bloody well done, by the way), once we've accounted for Mario, let's not play silly buggers. Guard Lambie, because they've got to try for her, now.
Oh, and Mazza, if one of Nem or Fifi is your co-conspirator, then I'll understand if you want to let them play this out, just on the off-chance that our doctor takes a few too many of his own meds. But if you're teamed with Steve, and he's still out for his very, very long lunch at the Apathé Café, you might consider throwing in one of Reality Island's very nice and only slightly bloodstained towels.