It's a very really possibility that there are 3 Mafia though, which would have been a quarter of the starting line up. If that's the case then we have 2 more days to get through, (assuming both a vigelante and a veteran in a group this size would be over-powered), and I think that they're more likely to try for the Doctor tonight than the Dectective, based on the assumption that she'll probably be protected. If the Doctor is done away with in the wee small hours then Lambie is rather vulnerable for the last night.
I'm honestly really surprised she didn't actually stand up and say 'Hey I'm the Vigilante' once she'd been nominated. We could then have dug a bit deeper into our other options, as both Nem and Steve were up for removal.
(Feeling homesick for her feline company that looks startlingly like Nem.)
Hopefully we'll get moving again soon.
Aw...I shall try and be better feline company from here on in should we survive.
Oh dear me, yes, we ARE being a little untidy, aren't we? I believe our dearly departed sister was making plans to depart our company in a less final way using this boat... we can use it to give her a viking funeral... my, what a lovely bunch of coconuts!
What an excellent idea! Strike the matches (presuming there are still some lying around).
As far as I know nobody has claimed to be the doctor. We must have one, because I'd be freaking DEAD by now. I am heartily grateful to whomever it is, anyway.
[Reverts to character for a moment, fanning herself]
And to think that Mario was a Mafioso all along! He seemed such a nice lad. A bit enthusiastic, religiously speaking, but we all have our little quirks. But a murderer! How my sales will go up when my readers find out I'm acquainted with a real-life plotter and murderer!
All of us are doctors. We reduce suffering by putting people out of their misery, sacrificially speaking. My buddies have been quiet, but they're devoted.
I guess. We still have Steve, after all, and I honestly don't know what facts he's managed to absorb.
You shouldn't vote me out, because we have a detective (Dai being unreadable proves that) and Lambie has claimed to be that detective and not been contradicted. There's no good reason not to believe her. She's checked me, and confirms I'm innocent.
And even without that, I've argued for a strategy to win that's solid on the numbers - that you ought to be able to see is helpful to the innocents, and would hurt me, if I hadn't been one of them.
And you can see that where I've expressed suspicion of others, it's been justified, and put forward with a level of belief that was justified, and, in Mario's case, was right.
But, most importantly, you shouldn't vote me out because Mario is guilty, and you should be voting for him.
Assuming all is legit, and odd as it may seem, our best chance now is if Lambie's investigation clears an innocent.
I mean, spotting another guilty person would still be good, and would mean we would almost certainly win, but confirming one more innocent is a guarantee. It would give us a guaranteed minimum of three known innocents tomorrow, out of a field of five, which is a majority and unassailable.
Nem's no lynching vote looks bloody odd. It could not possibly help us. If Nem were innocent, and had voted that way for some insane reason, that means that at least one of Fifi and Steve is guilty, and if Fifi were guilty, and seen that chance, I think she might have been a bit slower to vote for Mario, especially if Steve is guilty as well, and she could try to spoil the vote without looking any more suspicious, relatively speaking, than the other suspects. But she didn't.
So, right now, Fifi's my best guess for innocent. Nem would be my preferred nominee, unless she has a damned good explanation for that odd vote.
We need Lambie to survive to make one more report to get through this. I would suggest she check out Fifi, and if Fifi's on our side, and subject to any explanation, we get rid of Nem tomorrow. But if we get an innocent clearance tonight, it doesn't even matter if we guess wrong. And it doesn't even matter who the bad guys target. One more innocent cleared is all we need.
Lambie is going to check out Nem. We need to hope the mob kills Steve. Evil Eliab is actually the mob. Landmine Lambie is a co-mobster with EE. And that's the truth Fifi.
I thought Nem's vote was rather odd as well, either she does 't trust the evidence that strongly suggests Lambie is the detective, or she is deliberately playing to make today a 'no lynch' day when we have a Mafia member discovered and no vigilante even.
Yeah. If she’s guilty it wasn’t so much odd as dumb. And I don’t think she’s dumb.
But if she’s innocent, and thought that there were real grounds to doubt Lambie, you’d expect her to say why. And preferably before the other innocents were likely to have voted.
She looks guilty to me, but let’s see what she says.
I’d really like our ‘unknowns’ (Nem, Fifi, Steve) to say who they’d like Lambie to investigate and why. Obviously it’s Lambie’s choice, but I think we might learn something from their advice.
Anything’s possible, Penny, but no, not really. I think our Steve is still hoping that this is all a bad dream, Still, if he is listening, I’d like to hear what he thinks.
Well viewers! Who could have imagined it? Didn’t Mario look like such a nice guy? And now it turns out he was a mafia agent all along! What a twist!
Mario, thanks for getting the viewing figures up and all that, but our agreement stipulated that you only got paid if you didn’t get caught. The network formally denies any knowledge of an arrangement between us.
Naomi's ghost wonders whether her foundation (carefully located in the BVI) gets the money promised her; the network may be planning to kill everyone off thereby saving on costs.
Right then, that’s as close to certain that Ms L is on the level as we can get.
So one more established innocence wins it for us. Doesn’t matter now who the bad guys kill - me, Penny, the person Lambie clears, the doctor - as long as it’s not Lambie. We can lose anyone else, and go into tomorrow with an unbeatable majority.
Which means the bad guys (or guy) really has to try for Lambie tonight, hoping the doc will try to second guess them, and that means he or she shouldn’t. Guard Lambie. We can afford to lose anyone else.
Fifi’s now my best recommendation for innocent because she sunk Mario rather than wait and hope that Steve would spoil it. I’d suggest checking her. If she’s innocent, we win, and if not, that ain’t so bad either.
Barring surprises, I’d nominate Nem if Fifi’s one of us.
I expect that the Mafia will go for someone other than Lambie, on the grounds they'd probably have another fruitless night. Based on previous patterns they'll go after you or me, to take the talkative ones out.
If Lambie clears an innocent person, that's a certainty.
If Lambie finds a guilty one, it's not quite as certain, but they still lose unless there are three killers, not two, AND the person they kill is the doctor, so Lambie doesn't get another investigation, AND we mess up on the last 50/50 guess, which is still damned good odds for us.
Taking down Lambie tonight is the only way the odds will ever look good for the bad guys now. So that's their rational play. Hoping that because we can block it easily, we'll guess that they won't try it. But we don't need to second guess them. If Lambie is alive tomorrow morning we've probably (or definitely) won. Nothing else should matter for the doctor except making sure that she makes it.
You, me, whichever of Nem. Fifi and Steve is innocent, and even whichever of us is the doc, we're all expendable.
I am an angel. I will haunt all of you. And drop worms into your ears while you sleep. I hate love you all so much I do. Come in from the cold, and join me in the warm embrace of the True Love which only angels like me can offer. Penny for your thoughts little kitty kitty? Fifi-ucks sake Steve, ethan you can hear me: in your dreams......!
Ethan examines his pockets for any remaining gear. Nothing. Had he taken anything without noticing?
Oh, hi Mazza. Hi Naomi. It's ... er ... nice of you both to stick around, I guess, and well, if we get to have a victory party I hope you both can make it. Wouldn't be the same without you. And I don't suppose you have much else booked, what with being dead, and all.
But, here's the thing, this worm obsession and pyromania - bit unsettling, if I'm being honest. Would you mind being a tad less ... you know ... the whole unquiet grave, tales from the crypt, thing?
There's the whole existential angst schtick you could do instead - that's really where it is for your modern twenty-first century revenant. A bit more nihilism, a lot fewer invertebrates, and some nod to the old health and safety, is basically what I'm asking here. That cool with you?
Gutted, I had Mario pegged as the doctor/angel.
This is very squirmy indeed!
And you didn't think to tell us why you thought he might be innocent, at least? Especially after LLC had sussed him?
If you thought Maz was a good guy, you must have thought Lambie was playing us. And she'd cleared me, and I was nominated, so even if it wasn't obvious, when Mazza, oh, I don't know, when he straight up told us his buddies were devoted to putting us out of our misery - even if you somehow missed that that was a fucking confession - your best play as a deluded innocent has to have been to vote for me. And make a case for everyone else doing the same thing.
Killers are gonna kill, Penny. We've got to accept that.
The thing is, though, they kill me, and you and Lambie probably get to go home. They kill you, me and Lambie do. But if they kill Lambie, there's a far higher chance that you and me won't make it either.
I'm not being all that casual about your survival. Nor mine, come to that. But I think that your best chance, and mine, to live through this, is if Lambie's still alive tomorrow.
Penny sits in the door of her hut, waiting for the first glimmer of dawn. Shadowy figures approach menacingly from out of the gloom. She just has time to say 'I've been expecting you, especially after last night', before they have time to overpower her.
They pin her down on the ground inside the hut and mixing together a selection of herbal draughts pour them down her throat. When Penny sees their choices she screams 'That's a really bad combination', before they pour the liquid down her throat to poison her. As she writhes on the floor some rather indistinct words come out 'Sorry Lambie, you're on your own now....I hope Ethan gets me a good wreath', before she expires.
Edited as I can't bear the thought of dying with bad grammar!!
Comments
Aw...I shall try and be better feline company from here on in should we survive.
What an excellent idea! Strike the matches (presuming there are still some lying around).
And to think that Mario was a Mafioso all along! He seemed such a nice lad. A bit enthusiastic, religiously speaking, but we all have our little quirks. But a murderer! How my sales will go up when my readers find out I'm acquainted with a real-life plotter and murderer!
Oh look! A bonfire! And in a boat! You need a bottle of champ - shrimp - chomp - thingie to launch it y'know. Have a bottle of this instead!
There is a smash of glass against timber and a sheet of flame engulfs the boat. Coconuts explode. It floats out to sea, blazing and popping.
She sits down to see what will happen to the heathen murderers still on the beach.
I guess. We still have Steve, after all, and I honestly don't know what facts he's managed to absorb.
You shouldn't vote me out, because we have a detective (Dai being unreadable proves that) and Lambie has claimed to be that detective and not been contradicted. There's no good reason not to believe her. She's checked me, and confirms I'm innocent.
And even without that, I've argued for a strategy to win that's solid on the numbers - that you ought to be able to see is helpful to the innocents, and would hurt me, if I hadn't been one of them.
And you can see that where I've expressed suspicion of others, it's been justified, and put forward with a level of belief that was justified, and, in Mario's case, was right.
But, most importantly, you shouldn't vote me out because Mario is guilty, and you should be voting for him.
You may vote for
Obviously.
Vote Mario
Mario!
Assuming all is legit, and odd as it may seem, our best chance now is if Lambie's investigation clears an innocent.
I mean, spotting another guilty person would still be good, and would mean we would almost certainly win, but confirming one more innocent is a guarantee. It would give us a guaranteed minimum of three known innocents tomorrow, out of a field of five, which is a majority and unassailable.
Nem's no lynching vote looks bloody odd. It could not possibly help us. If Nem were innocent, and had voted that way for some insane reason, that means that at least one of Fifi and Steve is guilty, and if Fifi were guilty, and seen that chance, I think she might have been a bit slower to vote for Mario, especially if Steve is guilty as well, and she could try to spoil the vote without looking any more suspicious, relatively speaking, than the other suspects. But she didn't.
So, right now, Fifi's my best guess for innocent. Nem would be my preferred nominee, unless she has a damned good explanation for that odd vote.
We need Lambie to survive to make one more report to get through this. I would suggest she check out Fifi, and if Fifi's on our side, and subject to any explanation, we get rid of Nem tomorrow. But if we get an innocent clearance tonight, it doesn't even matter if we guess wrong. And it doesn't even matter who the bad guys target. One more innocent cleared is all we need.
Mario votes for Eliab.
But if she’s innocent, and thought that there were real grounds to doubt Lambie, you’d expect her to say why. And preferably before the other innocents were likely to have voted.
She looks guilty to me, but let’s see what she says.
I’d really like our ‘unknowns’ (Nem, Fifi, Steve) to say who they’d like Lambie to investigate and why. Obviously it’s Lambie’s choice, but I think we might learn something from their advice.
Well viewers! Who could have imagined it? Didn’t Mario look like such a nice guy? And now it turns out he was a mafia agent all along! What a twist!
Mario, thanks for getting the viewing figures up and all that, but our agreement stipulated that you only got paid if you didn’t get caught. The network formally denies any knowledge of an arrangement between us.
Night falls.
Right then, that’s as close to certain that Ms L is on the level as we can get.
So one more established innocence wins it for us. Doesn’t matter now who the bad guys kill - me, Penny, the person Lambie clears, the doctor - as long as it’s not Lambie. We can lose anyone else, and go into tomorrow with an unbeatable majority.
Which means the bad guys (or guy) really has to try for Lambie tonight, hoping the doc will try to second guess them, and that means he or she shouldn’t. Guard Lambie. We can afford to lose anyone else.
Fifi’s now my best recommendation for innocent because she sunk Mario rather than wait and hope that Steve would spoil it. I’d suggest checking her. If she’s innocent, we win, and if not, that ain’t so bad either.
Barring surprises, I’d nominate Nem if Fifi’s one of us.
If Lambie clears an innocent person, that's a certainty.
If Lambie finds a guilty one, it's not quite as certain, but they still lose unless there are three killers, not two, AND the person they kill is the doctor, so Lambie doesn't get another investigation, AND we mess up on the last 50/50 guess, which is still damned good odds for us.
Taking down Lambie tonight is the only way the odds will ever look good for the bad guys now. So that's their rational play. Hoping that because we can block it easily, we'll guess that they won't try it. But we don't need to second guess them. If Lambie is alive tomorrow morning we've probably (or definitely) won. Nothing else should matter for the doctor except making sure that she makes it.
You, me, whichever of Nem. Fifi and Steve is innocent, and even whichever of us is the doc, we're all expendable.
This is very squirmy indeed!
Oh, hi Mazza. Hi Naomi. It's ... er ... nice of you both to stick around, I guess, and well, if we get to have a victory party I hope you both can make it. Wouldn't be the same without you. And I don't suppose you have much else booked, what with being dead, and all.
But, here's the thing, this worm obsession and pyromania - bit unsettling, if I'm being honest. Would you mind being a tad less ... you know ... the whole unquiet grave, tales from the crypt, thing?
There's the whole existential angst schtick you could do instead - that's really where it is for your modern twenty-first century revenant. A bit more nihilism, a lot fewer invertebrates, and some nod to the old health and safety, is basically what I'm asking here. That cool with you?
And you didn't think to tell us why you thought he might be innocent, at least? Especially after LLC had sussed him?
If you thought Maz was a good guy, you must have thought Lambie was playing us. And she'd cleared me, and I was nominated, so even if it wasn't obvious, when Mazza, oh, I don't know, when he straight up told us his buddies were devoted to putting us out of our misery - even if you somehow missed that that was a fucking confession - your best play as a deluded innocent has to have been to vote for me. And make a case for everyone else doing the same thing.
Sorry, Nez. Not buying it.
Ethan, if you weren't confirmed innocent by Lambie, I would be worrying about your rather casual attitude to the survival of the rest of us.
The thing is, though, they kill me, and you and Lambie probably get to go home. They kill you, me and Lambie do. But if they kill Lambie, there's a far higher chance that you and me won't make it either.
I'm not being all that casual about your survival. Nor mine, come to that. But I think that your best chance, and mine, to live through this, is if Lambie's still alive tomorrow.
Did you think we had no surprises left? Here on Reality Island there are always more surprises.
Poor Penny. She was the doctor.
They pin her down on the ground inside the hut and mixing together a selection of herbal draughts pour them down her throat. When Penny sees their choices she screams 'That's a really bad combination', before they pour the liquid down her throat to poison her. As she writhes on the floor some rather indistinct words come out 'Sorry Lambie, you're on your own now....I hope Ethan gets me a good wreath', before she expires.
Edited as I can't bear the thought of dying with bad grammar!!