Purgatory: Coronavirus

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Comments

  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    In my experience telling worried people not to worry just makes them worry even more, and then worry about why they can't stop worrying.

    Kind of like telling someone not to think of a white horse.
  • yeah. Better to distract them (if at all possible) with some other issue. Rather like a mosquito bite on the eyelid takes your mind off the impending root canal.
  • Ouch!

    Yes, the lesser of two Evils...
    :grimace:
  • Note that I say this as the wife of a 70+ yo pastor who will certainly run ALL over the community checking on everybody through the whole freaking pandemic. And who has a day job in elder day care and home health.
  • Whitty, chief medical advisor (UK), saying that the virus will soon "spread quite fast". Presumably, this is based on mathematical models of epidemics. On the plus side, China and Korea seem to be controlling it.

    Better make a will.
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    Jane R wrote: »
    If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.

    I don't think we're in a position to cast stones when Jeremy Hunt is in charge of the House of Commons Select Committee on Health and Matt Hancock (along with most of the rest of the government) thinks we should dismantle what's left of the NHS.

    I didn't appoint either of them, nor vote for anyone who did.

    I didn't either, just as many people in the USA didn't vote for the Odious Orange Ozymandias.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Note that I say this as the wife of a 70+ yo pastor who will certainly run ALL over the community checking on everybody through the whole freaking pandemic. And who has a day job in elder day care and home health.

    Not to increase your worry, but you may want to look at the latest estimates correlating age with COVID-19 mortality. The best guess at the moment (provisional, of course) is that the death rate skews heavily towards the older population and is ~9.8% for those in the 70-79 age bracket.
  • Yes. That is precisely why I mentioned it. (Which is to say, you can't compound my worry--it's as compounded as it's going to get, but thanks!) IMHO I'd have to kill him to prevent him checking on his people. In some moods.... Nah.
  • TwilightTwilight Shipmate
    "9.8% for those in the 70-79 age bracket." Gulp.

    "Better make a will."

    I've been to a lawyer twice in my life. Once was in 1978 when my first husband and I were getting divorced. He told me he had found a lawyer who would serve both of us since it was a friendly, uncontested divorce, and we were going to do joint custody, so I should go with him and pay half, which I did, using the last of my money.

    Day of the proceedings I sat stunned as the judge quickly read off some stuff and granted the divorce with me losing everything, house, car, money ... and any custody of my son. I was crying hysterically but no one cared. Turned out he was only working for my husband and I couldn't get another lawyer to help me because I was completely out of money and only earning minimum wage.

    Flash forward to 2019. Present hubs and I have an understanding that if I die first he will continue to care for my son, who will ultimately inherit our substantial savings and house. Something happened last year to make me a little less trusting, so I said we needed to go to a lawyer and get things spelled out. We sat together with the lawyer, for two hours and I told all our confidential stuff and described what we wanted. A few weeks later the lawyer called and said my husband should come in and get his will ... and I should go to someone else.

    [Hoping to distract you guys from your worries with one of my long boring personal stories.]
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Trying not to touch your face is really hard, to aid me in this in this endeavour I have bought this. Mainly so I notice when I scratch my face, but it is also large enough to rest your chin on the dorsal side.
  • Whitty also saying that soon, anyone with a cold or temperature, will have to self-isolate. I'm struggling to imagine how this will work out. How many people get a cough or a sniffle at this time of year? I would have thought several million. Still, Boris will see us through.
  • Whitty also saying that soon, anyone with a cold or temperature, will have to self-isolate. I'm struggling to imagine how this will work out. How many people get a cough or a sniffle at this time of year? I would have thought several million. Still, Boris will see us through.

    Heaven help us...

    This is, of course, cutting across several current threads but, the most galling part for me is that The Johnson doesn't really want to be Prime Minister at all. I mean, he wants the prestige and the title and the attention but he clearly doesn't want to do the job and has absolutely no vision for where he wants to take the country. Say what you like about Thatcher - and I often do - she had a very clear idea of where she was going and how she wanted to transform the nation.

    This absence of ideals and ideas, this self-obsession and this truth-vacuum, win at any cost approach leaves us so vulnerable because Covid-19, like the flood waters and like the EU trade negotiation team is immune to propaganda. Medical science has yet to develop much in the way of effective treatments for viral diseases but bloody-minded bluster is even less effective. That appears to be the only arrow in 'Boris's' quiver.

    AFZ
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Jane R wrote: »
    Jane R wrote: »
    If you put an incompetent moron who facilitated an HIV outbreak and doesn't believe in evidence or science in charge of a public health emergency then you deserve everything you get.

    I don't think we're in a position to cast stones when Jeremy Hunt is in charge of the House of Commons Select Committee on Health and Matt Hancock (along with most of the rest of the government) thinks we should dismantle what's left of the NHS.

    I didn't appoint either of them, nor vote for anyone who did.

    I didn't either, just as many people in the USA didn't vote for the Odious Orange Ozymandias.

    Yes? I really have no idea what you're getting at.
  • OhherOhher Shipmate
    I'm equally befuddled. Regardless of who I voted for, the Orange Oaf is in the Oval Office. Regardless of who any British citizen voted for, Boris is at the wheel. End of story until next innings.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    I’ve just been to B&M to stock up on dog treats for Mr Boogs*, as I’m off to Germany on Wednesday. There was plenty of loo roll, soap, liquid soap, paracetamol. Everything except hand gel.

    I think it’s a good thing that people are keen to buy hand gel - it means they are taking hand hygiene advice seriously.

    *for Mr Boogs to give the dogs, I hasten to add! 🐕
  • HuiaHuia Shipmate
    Before I read the note I had visions of Mt Boogs scarfing down dog treats, with the dogs looking on soulfully :wink:
  • TwilightTwilight Shipmate
    Raise your hand if you just went off your diet, because it doesn't seem the least bit important anymore. I may need that fat!
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Ohher wrote: »
    I'm equally befuddled. Regardless of who I voted for, the Orange Oaf is in the Oval Office. Regardless of who any British citizen voted for, Boris is at the wheel. End of story until next innings.
    No, it's a democracy and that means that our representatives can be held to account throughout the period between elections. If we voted for those currently in government we can hold them to "that's not what you said you'd do", if we voted for someone else we can tell them how we'd want them to act - especially on issues that weren't spelled out in their manifesto.
  • Ohher wrote: »
    I'm equally befuddled. Regardless of who I voted for, the Orange Oaf is in the Oval Office. Regardless of who any British citizen voted for, Boris is at the wheel. End of story until next innings.
    No, it's a democracy and that means that our representatives can be held to account throughout the period between elections. If we voted for those currently in government we can hold them to "that's not what you said you'd do", if we voted for someone else we can tell them how we'd want them to act - especially on issues that weren't spelled out in their manifesto.

    Oh bleurgh.

    Like who ever saw a politician fired mid-term for renegging on a campaign promise (also known as lying).

    Where else can you continue to draw a fat paycheck for years after you effed the dog? If I failed to deliver a report on time or a deliverable on time in budget and error free, my time would be up, like right now.

    Democracy is a steaming pile ATM and we are seeing it under a magnifying glass.

    I hope that we as a species are able to make some course corrections in both economic and political arenas once all this dust has settled.

    AFF


  • Ohher wrote: »
    I'm equally befuddled. Regardless of who I voted for, the Orange Oaf is in the Oval Office. Regardless of who any British citizen voted for, Boris is at the wheel. End of story until next innings.
    No, it's a democracy and that means that our representatives can be held to account throughout the period between elections. If we voted for those currently in government we can hold them to "that's not what you said you'd do", if we voted for someone else we can tell them how we'd want them to act - especially on issues that weren't spelled out in their manifesto.

    Oh bleurgh.

    Like who ever saw a politician fired mid-term for renegging on a campaign promise (also known as lying).

    Where else can you continue to draw a fat paycheck for years after you effed the dog? If I failed to deliver a report on time or a deliverable on time in budget and error free, my time would be up, like right now.

    Democracy is a steaming pile ATM and we are seeing it under a magnifying glass.

    I hope that we as a species are able to make some course corrections in both economic and political arenas once all this dust has settled.

    AFF


    Serious (Pugatorial) discussion of this point here
    Me ranting about how broken our democracy is here

    If anyone is interested...

    AFZ
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Crœsos wrote: »
    Note that I say this as the wife of a 70+ yo pastor who will certainly run ALL over the community checking on everybody through the whole freaking pandemic. And who has a day job in elder day care and home health.

    Not to increase your worry, but you may want to look at the latest estimates correlating age with COVID-19 mortality. The best guess at the moment (provisional, of course) is that the death rate skews heavily towards the older population and is ~9.8% for those in the 70-79 age bracket.

    Yes, my back of the envelope estimates came up somewhere near that for those in my age bracket, and worse for those with symptoms. Plus I have chronic asthma. I'm moving from cut backs on social contacts towards protective self-isolation. Not easy - we have two surviving parents aged 95 for whom we are the principal carers.

    I think you have to call these things as you see them. In my case an additional factor is that I've had bad and extended reactions to winter flu viruses for four of the the last five years. I'm got good objective reasons for taking care to avoid exposure, despite the (so far) very light case rate in East Anglia.
  • Our local Asda was out of all pasta except the brand name lasagne sheets and gnocci tonight.
  • AravisAravis Shipmate
    I didn’t check pasta in Sainsbury’s. They were low on toilet rolls, but had some left. They had sold out of paracetamol, ibuprofen, whole meal bread flour and yeast sachets.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Here is a Worldwide Coronavirus counter.

    Turns out several Republican Senators may have had contact with a person from the Conservative Political Action Convention (CPAC) this past week. They are self quarantined at home. And it seems 45 may have had secondary contact through the Senators.

    Here is also the recent statement of the ELCA Presiding Bishop on the Coronavirus
  • rhubarbrhubarb Shipmate
    Some people are either as thick as two bricks or just won't be told anything. The priest at church took time to explain to the congregation as to why nobody should shake hands and suggested several acceptable alternatives to use during the peace. When we passed the peace a few minutes later I was stunned to see several people walking around and shaking hands. Give me strength!! We in the choir decided to greet using the namaste or maybe just a bow of the head.
  • Bloody hell Croesos. I was trying to focus on this thread and I can't get this lovely horse out of my head.

    Bloody hell Rhubarb, now I've seen your post, all I can think about is Jethro Tull.
  • Only read this article from a Doctor in Sydney calling for people to self-isolate now if you are a resilient person. I'm not and now I'm going to have to try not to think about it for a while.
  • And don't get hit by someone driving a car. Which is still more common than getting this.
  • wise words, NP.
  • Penny SPenny S Shipmate
    Supermarket stocked up loo rolls yesterday morning, shelves empty in the evening.
    The OCD part of my brain has kicked in and got me making lists of the stuff I already have, acquired at various times, and I find I have AMPLE pasta. Interesting flavours from the discount stores, mostly. Plus microwaveable sachets bought for use in the school microwave just before the academy decided they couldn't afford me, and before I had one myself.
    I have to own up to being a bit guilty on the loo roll front. I have, for some time, been operating a stock pile bought when it's on offer, and I know how quickly the pile goes down, so I got a bit ahead of the game to make my pile slightly bigger than its usual size, in case it runs out when the shelves are empty.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host

    I’m off to Germany tomorrow so I’ve done an online shop for Mr Boogs of all the things he’d be embarrassed to buy in case people thought he was panic buying.

    I shall tell him when I get there :lol:
  • North East QuineNorth East Quine Purgatory Host
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Only read this article from a Doctor in Sydney calling for people to self-isolate now if you are a resilient person. I'm not and now I'm going to have to try not to think about it for a while.

    The snag about closing schools is that it creates a child care crisis for many in healthcare, and removes flexibility. This is the wrong time for there to be a lack of carers available for the housebound elderly, for nurses and doctors to be unable to work extra shifts, for care homes to be operating on a skeleton staff etc etc.
  • CameronCameron Shipmate
    And don't get hit by someone driving a car. Which is still more common than getting this.

    Fair point - but people hit by a car don’t then get up and unknowingly knock down other people, which is the reason for a lot of care now.

    For example, given an average reproductive rate of 3.28 (number of others each carrier infects) and a transmission generation period of 7.5 days (there are multiple estimates), without intervention measures to slow or prevent transmission then:
    - The 77 cases in Canada today would multiply to just over 1 million in two months.
    - The 754 cases in the US would multiply to around 10 million in two months.
    Within 3 months, the entire population of both countries could have theoretically caught the disease.

    It is good not to be alarmist, but there is a very real need for calm vigilance from everyone and strong government intervention.

    [Review study data here.]
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Simon Toad wrote: »
    Only read this article from a Doctor in Sydney calling for people to self-isolate now if you are a resilient person. I'm not and now I'm going to have to try not to think about it for a while.

    The snag about closing schools is that it creates a child care crisis for many in healthcare, and removes flexibility. This is the wrong time for there to be a lack of carers available for the housebound elderly, for nurses and doctors to be unable to work extra shifts, for care homes to be operating on a skeleton staff etc etc.

    It's a bugger of a decision, because childcare settings and primary schools are absolutely the worst places when it comes to breeding and spreading bugs. Children touch themselves and each other all the time and have terrible personal hygiene. They're also least likely to be severely affected by the symptoms of the virus so will go on spreading it like the cute little disease vectors they are. If you restrict schools and childcare settings to children of essential medical personnel as soon as you see community spread you might have some impact. The risk is that you get informal childcare springing up with zero infection control in place because there are a lot of folk who are not considered "essential" who still need to get paid or at least avoid losing their job.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    Two of the people with the virus and in hospital are personally known to me, one in my city here in France (I think she's been discharged to self-confinement now actually), one in Burkina Faso, who has infected at least three more people now in hospital there. Both attended the evangelical conference in Mulhouse (which in its defence took place before any health restrictions were in place here). The epidemiological study from that one event will make interesting reading one day.
  • BoogieBoogie Heaven Host
    I don’t wish this virus on anyone but ...

    https://tinyurl.com/qosdam3

    This could pan out in an interesting way. One of the people in quarantine was mocking the safety advice by wearing a gas mask to meetings the other day; schadenfreude?
    Two Republican congressmen who were in close contact with Donald Trump in recent days have self-quarantined over concerns that they were also in contact in the same period with a known carrier of the coronavirus.

    Republicans Matt Gaetz of Florida and Doug Collins of Georgia announced on Monday that they had begun two weeks of self-imposed isolation, as recommended by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for anyone who has come into contact with the virus. Both congressmen said they were asymptomatic.

    Gaetz flew with Trump on Air Force One from Orlando to Washington on Monday and was informed en route that he had come into contact with a virus carrier at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland last month.

    “While the congressman is not experiencing symptoms, he received testing today and expects results soon,” said a message posted to Gaetz’s Twitter account.

    Collins greeted Trump with a handshake at an airport in Atlanta on Friday before the two visited the CDC headquarters for an update on coronavirus. Collins subsequently learned that he also had been potentially exposed at the conservative conference, held each year in Maryland.



  • Boogie wrote: »
    I don’t wish this virus on anyone but ...

    https://tinyurl.com/qosdam3

    This could pan out in an interesting way. One of the people in quarantine was mocking the safety advice by wearing a gas mask to meetings the other day; schadenfreude?
    Two Republican congressmen who were in close contact with Donald Trump in recent days have self-quarantined over concerns that they were also in contact in the same period with a known carrier of the coronavirus.

    Republicans Matt Gaetz of Florida and Doug Collins of Georgia announced on Monday that they had begun two weeks of self-imposed isolation, as recommended by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for anyone who has come into contact with the virus. Both congressmen said they were asymptomatic.

    Gaetz flew with Trump on Air Force One from Orlando to Washington on Monday and was informed en route that he had come into contact with a virus carrier at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland last month.

    “While the congressman is not experiencing symptoms, he received testing today and expects results soon,” said a message posted to Gaetz’s Twitter account.

    Collins greeted Trump with a handshake at an airport in Atlanta on Friday before the two visited the CDC headquarters for an update on coronavirus. Collins subsequently learned that he also had been potentially exposed at the conservative conference, held each year in Maryland.



    Yep. I was just thinking similar things. It's always interesting when reality crashes your self-delusion party...
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    edited March 2020
    Cameron wrote: »
    And don't get hit by someone driving a car. Which is still more common than getting this.

    Fair point - but people hit by a car don’t then get up and unknowingly knock down other people, which is the reason for a lot of care now.

    For example, given an average reproductive rate of 3.28 (number of others each carrier infects) and a transmission generation period of 7.5 days (there are multiple estimates), without intervention measures to slow or prevent transmission then:
    - The 77 cases in Canada today would multiply to just over 1 million in two months.
    - The 754 cases in the US would multiply to around 10 million in two months.
    Within 3 months, the entire population of both countries could have theoretically caught the disease.

    It is good not to be alarmist, but there is a very real need for calm vigilance from everyone and strong government intervention.

    [Review study data here.]

    Indeed, the whole point of the various measures is really to slow down the rate of transmission, not to utterly prevent it. If infections are spread out over time then it gives the health system the opportunity to deal with it and not be overwhelmed by huge numbers of people all needing care at once. (And also, for other sorts of systems to not be overwhelmed through lacking people that are sick.)

    Even though the percentage of cases needing significant care is not that high, the cumulative effect of a huge number of people being infected all at the same time would be significant.

    The problem is finding the right balance, because too much intervention risks causing a lot of damage to systems anyway. I read one observation suggesting that 90% of the economic impact of pandemics comes from the 'panic' rather and only 10% from the actual disease.

    I think half the problem is that people don't really understand what 'pandemic' actually means. It's an assessment of the scope of infections, not of the severity of them.
  • Barnabas62Barnabas62 Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    orfeo wrote: »
    I think half the problem is that people don't really understand what 'pandemic' actually means. It's an assessment of the scope of infections, not of the severity of them.
    Absolutely. The scientific advice is evidence-based and requires some work to grasp its relevance to any of us personally. Some folks are not very good at doing that kind of work.
  • An Italian consultant on Victoria Derbyshire, saying that the UK is being too slow, and that Italy did like wise, and then had to slam on the brakes.

    But how can Joe public compute this?
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Turns out several Republican Senators may have had contact with a person from the Conservative Political Action Convention (CPAC) this past week. They are self quarantined at home. And it seems 45 may have had secondary contact through the Senators.

    Only one Senator (Ted Cruz) has self-quarantined as far as we know. The others (Doug Collins, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, and Mark Meadows) are from the House of Representatives. Elsewhere I posted The Tragedy of Paul Gosar, a drama in three Twitter-length acts.

    Mark Meadows is supposed to take over as Trump's White House chief of staff. I'm guessing that's currently on hold.

    It has been remarked that most of these legislators have been very keen on "outing" the Ukraine whistleblower but are being very diligent in protecting the identity of the CPAC patient zero. Priorities, I guess.

    Mitt Romney sends his regards.
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    As I was saying over in All Saints my parents who belong to a vulnerable group are taking the government inaction (due to listening to behavioral scientists over epidemiologists) as meaning they shouldn't worry and as a result are not doing everything they can to reduce their risk. I worry this policy will end up killing them.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Well, they shouldn't worry. But, that's not the same as not taking sensible actions to protect themselves and those around them - starting with good hygiene, which has the added benefit of helping slow the spread of seasonal 'flu and other nasties, hand washing and trying to avoid face touching and shaking hands etc.

  • My local Co-Op corner shop was out of anti-bacterial handwash this morning, but everything else seemed present and correct. This probably means that peeps are taking sensible precautions.

    Mind you, the Lady at the Petrol Station on Sunday told me that Asda were completely out of soap last weekend. She reckoned this proved that, hitherto, local peeps were not bothering to wash... :fearful:
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Harvard has said that it's going to transition to all remote classes following Spring Break. It has also asked students not to return from Spring Break, which will be problematic for those few Harvard students who have nowhere else to live.
  • Just reading Richard North's blog on Brexit, and he is coming down very hard on Boris, and saying that we have a short breathing space to take Italian style measures. Presumably, this is inevitable, but a delay now is politically desirable, if not medically. Yet, Boris is flanked by the two medical officers. Who knows.
  • Leorning CnihtLeorning Cniht Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Harvard has said that it's going to transition to all remote classes following Spring Break. It has also asked students not to return from Spring Break, which will be problematic for those few Harvard students who have nowhere else to live.

    Perhaps they shouldn't leave for Spring Break, then? Can they just stay in the dorms over the break, or are they obliged to leave for a week?
  • OhherOhher Shipmate
    Dunno about Harvard; my college closes dorms for cleaning during breaks. Students are required to leave.
  • edited March 2020
    The break is in February here. Gone and past. Frequently called "ski week". Spring isn't here yet. Lovely -14°C with bright sun this morning.
  • Richard Horton, editor the Lancet, "the evidence is clear. We need urgent implementation of social distancing and closure policies. The government is playing roulette with the public. This is a major error." Twitter.
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