Purgatory: Coronavirus

12627293132106

Comments

  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
  • Timo PaxTimo Pax Shipmate
    With respect, 6 feet is not as good as staying home.

    I think the problem with this is that it's not binary. It's about probabilities.

    I spent yesterday with my family rambling in a national park. I'm not sure the trail was more crowded than usual, but it was pretty crowded. It wasn't always easy to maintain a 2m separation, though AFAICT everybody was trying. This morning I headed to an urban playpark with my son. Here, oddly, it was easier to maintain distance, but we did have some time on the playground equipment before I realised quite how extensive the grounds were. Hand sanitiser before and after, FWIW.

    If it was just about me, I wouldn't have done either of those things. If anyone in the family had any symptoms of illness, or had tested positive for COVID-19, then I wouldn't have done either of those things. But my son is five; and if doesn't get a good 60-90 minutes of outdoor time each day, he becomes ... well, not just obstreperous, but incoherent. I simply can't imagine what the effects of a lockdown would be.

    So I end up balancing some degree of public risk I'm inflicting against a 100% chance of meltdown and mental collapse in my private life. What is that degree? No idea. I'm not happy about it. But as long as that risk seems small and the countervailing certainty is high ... well, I'm going to end up outdoors. Regretful and anxious. But outdoors.

  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    If you can afford it, you might want to consider getting a trampette before the lockdown sets in.
  • Timo PaxTimo Pax Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    If you can afford it, you might want to consider getting a trampette before the lockdown sets in.

    I think that might have worked when he was younger. The trouble is that it's not just about energy (though a lot of it's about energy). I've spent a lot of time in drizzle-swept playgrounds in the dark trying to figure out what it is about. But it's evidently some kind of bigger energy/cognitive engagement/physical challenge thingie.

    An internal climbing wall might do it, I suppose ....


  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited March 2020
    Ricardus wrote: »
    AFAICT, the reference to herd immunity came from Vallance. By the time it reached social media, it seems to have turned into 'we don't need to do anything, everyone will be immune given enough time because of herd immunity'. Now, out of the available options:

    There was also the David Halpern interview on the 11th of March. It was repeated by Graham Medley on the 13th - at which point the government advice was mostly 'wash your hands' - as summarised here by Nick Phin (back on the 3rd Johnson had gone on TV to say that he'd gone to a hospital with infected people and "shook hands with everybody").

    [Let's take their estimates that herd immunity is reached when 80% of the population get it - so for the UK that would be 53M people. Let's assume the figures elsewhere are accurate and around 5-10% of them need incubators - so 2.5m - 5m people. Let's assume there are 20K incubators in the country (likely an overestimate) and each person who is infected needs ventilation for a week. Assuming everyone gets ill in a completely controlled manner, it takes between 125 and 250 weeks to ventilate everyone who needs it; or 2.5 to just under 5 years.

    Very back of the fag packet -- but does indicate the scope of the problem]
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Pity he’s too young for wod. You can make it competitive - but he’s prolly a little young.
  • Timo PaxTimo Pax Shipmate
    @Doublethink Actually, thanks for that. You're right he's young now. But I was thinking of getting him started on the RCAF 5BX programme in short order ... we can work our way up to wod.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    But if you touch your face and mouth with the gloves, you’re not better off than touching your face with a hand you’ve not cleaned.
    I regularly slosh acid around at work, for which I wear nitrile gloves. Everytime I put on a pair of gloves I get this itch on the side of my nose that is a devil to avoid scratching. Every single time.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    But if you touch your face and mouth with the gloves, you’re not better off than touching your face with a hand you’ve not cleaned.
    I regularly slosh acid around at work, for which I wear nitrile gloves. Everytime I put on a pair of gloves I get this itch on the side of my nose that is a devil to avoid scratching. Every single time.

    I’ve been resorting to a telescopic back scratcher, mostly cos with a mug in one hand and this in the other, it more difficult to scratch my nose accidentally.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited March 2020
    (I also recommend top-of-a-sash-light-pole, for door handles and pressing buttons.)
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    Timo Pax wrote: »
    An internal climbing wall might do it, I suppose ....

    Oh, I'm pretty certain you'll all be climbing the walls by the end of the week...

    (Thanking God that my youngest is 20yo)
  • jay_emmjay_emm Kerygmania Host
    I regularly slosh acid around at work, for which I wear nitrile gloves. Everytime I put on a pair of gloves I get this itch on the side of my nose that is a devil to avoid scratching. Every single time.
    I rarely do it (and now have passed that part on), but when I do, every time.
  • Graven ImageGraven Image Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Seems strange in the store all the hand sanitizer is gone and loads of soap are still stacked up. Everything I read says soap should be your first choice.
  • TonyKTonyK Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    Seems strange in the store all the hand sanitizer is gone and loads of soap are still stacked up. Everything I read says soap should be your first choice.

    It's difficult to carry soap and water around - a little bottle is convenient when out. But even with the gel my hands are starting to complain!
  • South Korea. How it is handling things. They seem to know what to do. https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/upfront/2020/03/testing-times-south-korea-covid-19-strategy-working-200320051718670.html
    he government also obtained mobile phone records, credit card receipts and other private data of everyone who tested positive for COVID-19, and used the information to track the spread of the virus

    Would you freely hand over your cell phone and all other private data? I'd suggest giving people no choice if tested positive.
  • White gloves? The Freemasons will be alright then ...
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    South Korea. How it is handling things. They seem to know what to do. https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/upfront/2020/03/testing-times-south-korea-covid-19-strategy-working-200320051718670.html
    he government also obtained mobile phone records, credit card receipts and other private data of everyone who tested positive for COVID-19, and used the information to track the spread of the virus

    Would you freely hand over your cell phone and all other private data? I'd suggest giving people no choice if tested positive.

    There was a similar discussion a while back about (of all things) bitcoin. If you phrase the question "do you want the government to track every monetary transaction?" most people will say "no". On the other hand if you ask "do you want the government to be able to track all the financial transactions of someone credibly accused of running a pedophile ring?" the answer is generally "yes". In other words, while we may not want Big Brother watching our every move all the time we do want Big Brother to be able to discover that kind of information on the basis of a credibly issued warrant based on reasonable suspicion. I'd say the same applies to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • UK government continues to operate on the basis that the virus runs its own media grid - and can be briefed against if you get in sufficiently late.
  • I think they're being soft. They need someone to hit hard - if you keep messing about in groups, without distancing, thousands of people will choke to death, with no ventilator. Or show a film of it. Some young people look completely insouciant.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    They are absolutely being soft. Appealing to people's better natures, advising rather than telling, suggesting rather than ordering. Some of it is due to thinking that nudging is better than dictating, and some of it is due to wanting to avoid responsibility for the costs.

    Case in point: I was due at a sf convention over Easter. The organisers were finally able to cancel yesterday, when the hotel conceded that they wouldn't be able to provide bar or restaurant space to attendees (almost all of whom had signalled they had cancelled or were cancelling). Up to that point, neither the organisers nor the hotel could blink, because the advice wasn't strong enough to invoke the insurance clauses and save everyone thousands of pounds.

    The government is running behind the scientific advice. People will die because of it.
  • Boris hasn't got the balls to order people.
  • It's like in a war. I don't want a general who pleads with me. He dishes out orders, he says we go in, we hit hard, we take casualties, and we save lives. Now go.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    Ordering versus asking is a delicate balance in societies that are not used to ordering.

    And ordering only works if there are consequences for disobedience.
  • Doc Tor wrote: »
    They are absolutely being soft. Appealing to people's better natures, advising rather than telling, suggesting rather than ordering. Some of it is due to thinking that nudging is better than dictating, and some of it is due to wanting to avoid responsibility for the costs.

    It's absolutely about an avoidance of any kind of responsibility - not just that of cost, but of any knock on impacts.

    There's no reason the DCMS release could not have been put out as part of today's press conference apart from, well, see point 1.

    Besides, as I've probably said already, I'm not sure people are acting that irrationally when you consider their experience, take this for instance - the problem is that to people who have just spent much of the week commuting to work on very crowded public transport, going to the park must seem like the lesser of the two evils - similarly until Friday hundreds of school children were regularly mixing with each other. The government only finally closed social venues on Saturday (even allowing everyone one final night out).

    But yes, nudging will fix this.
  • TonyK wrote: »
    Seems strange in the store all the hand sanitizer is gone and loads of soap are still stacked up. Everything I read says soap should be your first choice.

    It's difficult to carry soap and water around - a little bottle is convenient when out. But even with the gel my hands are starting to complain!

    I agree but it seems to me people would be using more soap then before and instead they are buying toilet paper. No hoarding of soap, just gel and TP.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    the problem is that to people who have just spent much of the week commuting to work on very crowded public transport, going to the park must seem like the lesser of the two evils - similarly until Friday hundreds of school children were regularly mixing with each other.

    Part of the problem is that people also reason wrongly about the risk factors. You don't interact with people or your environment in the same way on public transport. If people just sit on public transport and don't DO anything other than get on and off it, the risk is relatively low.

    Schools are a huge, thorny problem. Because if you don't have the kids in school, the kids don't magically disappear off the planet. Having all the children in one place and mixing with each other rather than with the entire community might well be better.

  • orfeo wrote: »
    Ordering versus asking is a delicate balance in societies that are not used to ordering.

    And ordering only works if there are consequences for disobedience.

    The consequences are thousands of people choking to death, with no ventilator. So show a film of it on TV, and then ask people if they want to cavort on the beach or in the park.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    orfeo wrote: »
    Ordering versus asking is a delicate balance in societies that are not used to ordering.

    And ordering only works if there are consequences for disobedience.

    The consequences are thousands of people choking to death, with no ventilator. So show a film of it on TV, and then ask people if they want to cavort on the beach or in the park.

    We show people films of the consequences of car crashes. For some people, this does not cause them to believe that such things could happen to them personally.

    Plus, that is a form of asking, not ordering.
  • There must be a politician with a harder edge than Boris, who will sound angry about the scenes on the beach and in the park, and who will issue orders. Where are they? Boris is like a fat marshmallow.
  • orfeo wrote: »
    Schools are a huge, thorny problem. Because if you don't have the kids in school, the kids don't magically disappear off the planet. Having all the children in one place and mixing with each other rather than with the entire community might well be better.

    As a parent and former teacher, I can tell you that if one kid comes to school with something, ALL of them will get it. They will then take it home to their parents, grandparents, siblings, and playmates.

    In this you are wrong.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    Well then, so are the authorities in Singapore which so far has been doing rather well on all this.
  • And the only difference between them and the US is that they are letting kids go to school? I call bullshit.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    The trick is the IF. IF one kid comes to school with something.

    That's kind of the point of trying to minimise the contact of kids with other groups. It actually lowers the chances of any kid coming to school with something.

    So far in this country, and I believe in Singapore, don't know about anywhere else, children that have been infected haven't got it from school. They've got it from somewhere else.

    Of course, if you simply don't have school then you reduce the risk of children getting it at school to zero. But then you create other problems. So it's very much a weighing exercise.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    edited March 2020
    mousethief wrote: »
    And the only difference between them and the US is that they are letting kids go to school? I call bullshit.

    No, the point is that keeping schools open hasn't derailed their other efforts. The children haven't all got it and then spread it back to their families.
  • Cars are great virus transportation which is where the nature trail discussion began. People driving and parking. Then walking. They transport whatever with them.

    I think I need a citation for the car as a transmission vector. Sure - the virus will live on a metal surface for a day, but you don't go round handling other people's cars, so that doesn't matter. It doesn't leap off parked cars and become airborne. Certainly you'll carry around a slug of your air in your car, so you'll release a slug of infected air when you open the door, but it's hard to imagine that being a more significant effect that you being there.
  • orfeo wrote: »
    You don't interact with people or your environment in the same way on public transport. If people just sit on public transport and don't DO anything other than get on and off it, the risk is relatively low.

    On public transport, you're sharing a small airspace with a bunch of other people, breathing each others' aerolosized viruses. I don't think the risk of transmission by public transport is as low as you think.

    (It's better than using a sick person's telephone or something, but worse than shopping in the same store as a sick person.)
  • Pangolin GuerrePangolin Guerre Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    So, this afternoon or early this evening the Canadian Olympic Committee announced that if the Tokyo Olympics go ahead as scheduled, Canada will not be there. Hayley Wickenheiser and Mark Tewksbury had both said attending would be a big mistake (Wickenheiser quite vocally, Tewksbury more diplomatically as he's on the COC.)
  • orfeo wrote: »
    mousethief wrote: »
    And the only difference between them and the US is that they are letting kids go to school? I call bullshit.

    No, the point is that keeping schools open hasn't derailed their other efforts. The children haven't all got it and then spread it back to their families.

    I'd have to see more statistics, like how long it's been in the country, how widespread it is, how many kids are in a class, how they share lunch together, and so on. Too many variables to say their situation is anything at all like ours.
  • edited March 2020
    Cars are great virus transportation which is where the nature trail discussion began. People driving and parking. Then walking. They transport whatever with them.

    I think I need a citation for the car as a transmission vector. Sure - the virus will live on a metal surface for a day, but you don't go round handling other people's cars, so that doesn't matter. It doesn't leap off parked cars and become airborne. Certainly you'll carry around a slug of your air in your car, so you'll release a slug of infected air when you open the door, but it's hard to imagine that being a more significant effect that you being there.

    This is a rant, and a blast. Why is this so hard to understand?

    People in the cars. They drive places. They can transport their infected selves a few miles or 100. And if they're not infected they can pick up the infection from others in a car parking area, on a nature trail, and they can take it home or to another park or beach or store or wherever. And then no one can track who the f**k they irresponsibly came into f**king contact with. But they enjoyed their nature walk or stroll in a park. This is why the 700+% increase happened in America. Because they don't stay at home like they should. Everyone going out is a potential disease carrier. Who needs to think like they are already infected and don't want to infect other people. Why is this so goddamned hard to understand? Don't leave home.

    Well that and f**king celebrities and politicians who bought tests although they are f**king asymptomatic and wanted too avoid self isolation.

    When do the riots and the shootings start? Because they are coming. And there's no turning back.
  • orfeoorfeo Suspended
    edited March 2020
    mousethief wrote: »
    orfeo wrote: »
    mousethief wrote: »
    And the only difference between them and the US is that they are letting kids go to school? I call bullshit.

    No, the point is that keeping schools open hasn't derailed their other efforts. The children haven't all got it and then spread it back to their families.

    I'd have to see more statistics, like how long it's been in the country, how widespread it is, how many kids are in a class, how they share lunch together, and so on. Too many variables to say their situation is anything at all like ours.

    Well I can tell you that it's been in Singapore quite a long time because east Asia is where this all started. The rate of cases per head of population is moderately high though the USA has now overtaken them** according to the site I've been looking at (worldometers). The rest I don't know.

    **Frankly the USA is the place that worries me the most right now. We're still in a situation where more Australian patients got this overseas rather than here, and the USA is a major place where they were infected. The numbers there are going up very, very quickly.
  • The whole county just went on lock down, no hotel, motel, or private home rentals, no one on lakes, in campgrounds, on hiking trails. No cases reported so far, but everyone has been coming here to vacation!
  • Golden KeyGolden Key Shipmate, Glory
    edited March 2020
    Various:

    --Just read that Angela Merkel, German chancellor, has gone into self-isolation, because her doctor tested positive.

    --Re Singapore: IF they've managed to suppress the virus, maybe they've used the reportedly...strict...laws they have about public behavior?

    --Re celebs and politicians: Actually, many have tested positive and are posting about it.

    --Re the US: Much of the problem is centered in DC. AIUI, T fired his entire pandemic response team in 2018. And...T is T. Plus Congress is...fraught, and was before the pandemic. Plus we don't have universal health care.

    Plus Americans usually really *hate* being told what to do. And a lot of people--especially young people--have never had to deal with much of an epidemic, let alone a pandemic. They may not have any idea how bad it can be, let alone believe it. Witness the mess with Spring Break in Florida. (For those who don't know: college students here usually have a week-long (or more) break during the spring semester. Some of them go to sunny places, hang out in groups in minimal clothing on beaches, drink, etc. Reportedly, things can get pretty wild.) A mayor (?) didn't want to shut the festivities down, and tried to corral the students. Didn't work, and time was lost. He did finally get his act together.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    We're almost a week into self-isolation and my almost-4-year-old is struggling. If it had been a year ago she'd have been ok but she's just got used to being at nursery and she's missing her friends desperately. She was naming all her single mega blocks after her friends and then took 12 of her cousin to bed with her last night and I've got to think it's because she's feeling lonely. :( She's getting very cranky too. We have managed to get out to an isolated section of beach, seeing no-one (I reckon we must have achieved at least 200m, possibly 2km) and getting some fresh air and sunshine, but our wee girl is much more of a people person than either of her parents. She's used to having Granny-in-the-box and is fine with it but she needs to go out and "do something" (her words), whether that's shopping, nursery or church. She'll be ok in the long run but it's hard to see her upset like this.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Any chance of friends-in-the-box ?
  • HeavenlyannieHeavenlyannie Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Re: school transfer, my 15 year old developed a cough last Tuesday and several of his friends also had it. No other symptoms. 13% of the school children were off on Wednesday (I assume mostly unwell). Our family and the families either side of us all have children with coughs. It seems to me that there is an awful lot of transfer from children with mild symptoms, and families now in self isolation, round here. And a good reason for older people to not visit their grandchildren.
  • EutychusEutychus Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    The thing is, we have no idea what you've all had/are having (or anyone else who hasn't been tested, of course!). Any other year, you wouldn't give it a second thought. Those symptoms could be for loads of reasons, not necessarily Covid-19.

    (I also worry a lot of us are rather optimistically thinking "well, I felt a bit off-colour and coughed a bit, so I must have had it already [i.e. I'm now pretty much immune and have escaped getting a bad version]").

    And this knowledge gap is one of the biggest annoyances for me right now. The WHO's advice is "test, test, test" and other things being equal, that makes perfect sense to me.

    I think it's one of South Korea's big advantages.

    Only by massive testing can we establish better data about how many cases turn serious, how fast the disease is actually transmitted, where there are clusters, and so on. Different countries use different tests and test different patient categories and this skews the "raw" data massively.

    Without testing, we have no idea how many relatively benign cases are out there, which seems to me a to be a very important part of understanding the disease and its impact.
  • Doc TorDoc Tor Admin Emeritus
    What he said.

    I have no idea if I've got it or it's just me having a week-long panic attack. I'm hoping both ways, which isn't helping.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Yeah, my wee one was our trigger for self-isolating but she almost certainly has a cold. Having a cold is pretty much the default state for a under-5 in contact with other under-5s but *shrug* you just have to go with it. Apart from anything else we're best off shutting down the colds and 'flus too so folk aren't whacked with coronavirus while their system is still recovering from something else. At least as it gets warmer the ratio of cold/flu to covid-19 should change so we're not jumping at shadows quite so much.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Any chance of friends-in-the-box ?

    Certainly something we're going to try and arrange.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    edited March 2020
    Even at the most pessimistic estimates of current infection rates (about 50,000 IIRC) the chances of any specific individual with a cough and temperature having Covid-19 is actually quite low. A good proportion of the population coughing their way through late Winter is situation normal, and we don't give it a second thought.

    But some will have it. And we can't tell who.
Sign In or Register to comment.