Halving the risk is also relevant, so if you can cut down the number of trips from 2 per week to 1, that would also be helpful.
Yes, it would. And when grocery stores calm down again, that might be possible. But when stores are limiting purchasers to one load of bread and one bottle of milk in order to prevent the shelves from being emptied in the first hour, families have to make multiple trips in a week.
I see. We don’t seem to be at that stage yet in Boston, though I did see a convenience store out of stock on toilet paper for the first time this morning, and today the governor ordered the closure of all non-essential businesses from noon tomorrow.
And if so many people hadn't stocked up for six weeks that they'd stripped the stores leaving health workers and OAPs with nothing we'd be in a better position too. (Not that I've been in any stores for a week, cos self isolation.).
Halving the risk is also relevant, so if you can cut down the number of trips from 2 per week to 1, that would also be helpful.
Yes, it would. And when grocery stores calm down again, that might be possible. But when stores are limiting purchasers to one load of bread and one bottle of milk in order to prevent the shelves from being emptied in the first hour, families have to make multiple trips in a week.
The problem seems to be a lot worse in the UK than elsewhere and owes much levels of JIT delivery adopted by UK supermarkets - the figures don't really indicate panic buying on a mass scale -- though you'll notice the egregious examples when you go shopping.
The TP thing is interesting, because its a particularly low value (and bulky) item - and any slight deviance from normal buying patterns will see a shortage - they are even less likely to reserve any of their remaining storage space (even assuming they have some, as many Metros/Expresses won't) for spare TP.
You may be right, but I hope to God you're not, especially as I may well be among that number.
Assuming 80% of the worlds population contract the virus (an often repeated worst case scenario) and 5% of those die ... I get population 7.8 billion, infected 6.2 billion and 0.3 billion dead.
Guy hacking his guts up, walking along the road today. I passed by on the other side. He was going for it so hard, I thought he was taking the piss and trying to freak me out. Well, having thought about it, I wish I'd piped up and said something. You (generic) might like to think about something non-confrontational to say the next time it happens down your way. My best guess so far is 'hey mate, you don't sound well; I think you might be better off staying at home for a while'.
(Those in 'at risk' groups might be safer saying nothing; my guy looked like he might be pissed).
I wish we had a store named, Iceland, it offers so many joke opportunities. We did used to have a big grocery chain called the A &P, so we could say, "I plan to go to the "Y" and swim and then go to the A&P."
I wish we had a store named, Iceland, it offers so many joke opportunities. We did used to have a big grocery chain called the A &P, so we could say, "I plan to go to the "Y" and swim and then go to the A&P."
There was also a Stop & Shop. The joke used to be that if the two merged, they could call themselves Stop & P.
An erstwhile railway in England, which closed in 1940, was the Weston, Clevedon & Portishead (not far from Bristol).
It is said that a porter at a station belonging to Another Railway, when asked how to get to a certain place, was sacked for telling the passenger to 'Go to the WC and P'...
With fines from the police for transgressors (England and Wales only? Though I see Nicola Sturgeon is saying police emergency powers are going to be enacted in Scotland in the next few days). We can have one fresh-air walk/run a day; shop only for groceries and seeing to medical requirements, if these can't be done online. If your work is necessary you may travel. Out of doors no more than two people to 'gather'. All shops apart from pharmacies and food shops to close. No events at all, even family ones eg, baptisms, weddings. Funerals will have another protocol.
Johnson's speech was short, to the point and fairly unambiguous.
In our case the garden means the Dragonlets can run around without going out.
They haven't said anything about schools yet, but I understand it as either a) they'll close and/or b) the keyworker definition will be tightened further.
I'm NHS admin. Our screening programme has shut, so there isn't anything for me to do atm, and working would require me to be redeployed. Under last week's keyworker definition I could send Dragonlet 1 to school (and they are running a skeleton service), and Dragonlet 2 to nursery 3 days a week, which is still open as it's the hospital staff one.
However I'm keeping them at home as I'm in a vulnerable group and I'm concerned they might pick it up outside the house. Occy Health guidance today was risk assess and move elsewhere if required, but I wouldn't know where that somewhere else would be, if not possible work from home, but there's nothing to do, and if not, paid leave. My manager, despite being a bit of a mother hen, was trying to argue I should be coming in as I'm a key worker, but I think that'll be harder to argue after tonight.
Because the lockdown has huge negative health effects on vulnerable people, especially seniors and people with disabilities. The seniors I see at the pool and at the gym can't just go ride a bike, as everyone keeps suggesting. Then there's the folks who depend on hydrotherapy for pain relief and mobility. People with mental illnesses need their routines to stay stable and functional.
And don't get me started on the social stresses. Most families are two paychecks away from being homeless. The lower your income, the less likely it is that you can work from home or have that mythical three-month nest egg. Those who are lucky enough to still have a job have no choice but to risk everyone's health to provide for their family, and then get lectured for it.
Public health is all about judging risks for large groups of people, and we know that inactivity and isolation are terrible for everybody's mental and physical health.
I sincerely hope tradespeople such as plumbers & so on constitute essential too.
I currently have no washing machine (though one is due to be delivered later in the week) , but I need to have it fitted (it will require removal of the sink & a cupboard and other assorted pipework) and am reliant on launderettes.... Which presumably will be off limits.
I'm also NHS staff, and whilst we're not front line, last thing I heard, we were considered essential (though that may well change tomorrow). We can't work from home as we produce a product to order & all the quality control/assurance around that. Hope I'm still allowed to walk to work.
The joy of having a stretch of garden long enough for some archery practice, and a retaining wall high enough that no arrow will stray.
I'll go for runs early doors, to meet fewer people. I do one big shop every week, but buy fresh veg every day - that'll have to go down to 2/3 times. Apart from that, it's how I live my life anyway.
And the Boy has promised to teach me the basics of sword-and-shield fighting, so that'll get us out the fresh air. And hopefully not into A&E...
I will probably go for the early run too. I am on the edge of a village though - so I can probably avoid people without much trouble any time of day.
Also, I will try to buy food online if I can - although that looks pretty unlikely, since everyone is trying to do the same thing. So it will be a 20km round trip on the bike to get to the supermarket, which will sort out that day’s exercise I guess. I am lucky to be able to do that, I know. But just once a week, I think...
We just have to do what we have to do. I am glad people will be made to stick to it so that it is effective, for the sake of the vulnerable. I can’t imagine 3 weeks will sort it though; I think that’s just a softener, on the basis that if we were told about the realistic length of time on day 1 (three months?) then there would be a mass of people doing a Denethor.
And if so many people hadn't stocked up for six weeks that they'd stripped the stores leaving health workers and OAPs with nothing we'd be in a better position too. (Not that I've been in any stores for a week, cos self isolation.).
It's not so much people shopping for six weeks that caused the problems, but everyone doing it on the same day. When I did my six week shop it was about a week before everyone went mad at once. The shelves were full of stock. I didn't actually hoard any particular thing and I didn't buy anything that health workers would particularly be needing.
When we were a military family we only went to the base commissary once a month so I'm used to shopping like that. Most Americans don't shop as often as people in the UK. Some have to drive a long way to get to a major grocery. That's why our refrigerators are so huge.
And don't get me started on the social stresses. Most families are two paychecks away from being homeless. The lower your income, the less likely it is that you can work from home or have that mythical three-month nest egg. Those who are lucky enough to still have a job have no choice but to risk everyone's health to provide for their family, and then get lectured for it.
Public health is all about judging risks for large groups of people, and we know that inactivity and isolation are terrible for everybody's mental and physical health.
I’ve been wondering about domestic abuse. The situation is unprecedented, so I guess we don’t have any data, But I can’t imagine it’s not going to skyrocket.
The second link does help to show, implicitly, why government measures and communications have been rolled out in a particular way. It is going to be very tough on a lot of people - but clearly the lockdown is the only effective method of containment and suppression at this time.
Our state CDC announced today that we should all take precautions as if we are sick. This doesn't make sense to me, because if we are all presuming we are sick, then there aren't any of us presumed healthy to do essential things like pick up groceries for us. So I'm confused. But I find that often now: I'm just plain confused by all the discussions about the right path to take. I expect that after I get free of my current self-quarantine, that it will still be recommended to go out as little as possible... for several months.
The Australian Prime Minister, Mr Morrison (a.k.a. "Scotty from Marketing") wonders why many people are not believing everyting he says about coronavirus.
One reason is after so many false "promises" on other matters, many people no longer believe anything he says, although on this matter he is generally in line with the Chief Medical officer who always attends (and often speaks at) his press conferences. [Compare trump's farce in similar circumstances!]
More specifically, this weekend he chastises "young people" [who generally don't follow news broadcasts much any way] for gathering at thebeach on a hot day, while only a week earlier Morrison himself was determined to go the football and to his church's annual conference and mega-worship before he "ordered" such things to close.
Speaking of spreading the virus...there's a group of white supremacists talking about "weaponizing" the virus by getting infected themselves, then purposely infecting other people. The FBI is reportedly looking into it.
Washington State is in official shelter in place as of Wednesday @ 1730 PDT for two weeks. Exceptions will be doctors' appointments, grocery shopping, fueling, picking up carry out, and taking walks in the neighborhood/park. Governor is calling for voluntary compliance, though it can be enforced if need be.
Glad to know the UK is getting more serious. I wish the info was wrong. But data is always our friend. It can inform our behaviour and keep is safe. If your country, locality, leaders aren't being sensible, please be sensible yourself.
I tend to agree (sort of) with what @NOprophet_NØprofit says, because it makes sense - but how, indeed, is a complete lockdown to be enforced, when those afflicted with terminal dumbf**kery wander about in hordes?
My town has declared a shelter in place order, with closure of all except essential businesses, for a week. Order likely to be renewed after the first week is up, but town councilors think we could be past this in a time range measured in weeks, not months. Not that I have any idea whether to count on this or not.
People in my neck of the woods in Northern California seem to finally be getting the message. Or perhaps it is the Sheriff giving them the message. Non essential business closing or going on line. Golf course , Lakes, Camp Grounds and parking lot along with playgrounds now empty. As you can no longer rent hotel or motel rooms or air Band B or camp unless you are medical personal with proof out of town vacationers have left.
Last night South Africa's President Ramaphosa announced we will be going into 21-day lockdown from midnight on Thursday, 27 March. Nobody is to leave home except for essential purposes (to get medical help or obtain food) and there will be military patrols by the army enforcing this. No walks, no recreation, no moving around. Those arrested on the streets will be fined or face prison sentences.
Healthcare and laboratory workers, emergency personnel, security officials as well as food and hygiene production workers will be exempt. To try and ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed, a system will be put in place for centralised patient management for severe cases.
Not unexpected, but draconian. A great many job losses and food shortages anticipated.
I suspect that in Australia we will be hibernating for the winter. Here is a message from Dan Andrews, Victorian Premier, that was aired during the 6pm news bulletin last night. Watch till the end.
This is easily an order of magnitude bigger than WWII. Globally. In intensity. The timescale and the casualties.
Almost certainly not, but that only says how awful WW2 was.
Even the worse UK case predicted is probably vaguely comparable to UK losses (and we got off proportionally lightly) and less than six years.
If Britain follows Italy (and Italy mirrors itself) then it's probably going to be an order of magnitude less than WWII
But again, WWII is not a target, and we still have climate change to follow.
I suspect that in Australia we will be hibernating for the winter. Here is a message from Dan Andrews, Victorian Premier, that was aired during the 6pm news bulletin last night. Watch till the end.
'Hibernating' sounds like the perfect word, Simon. I was just watching squirrels collecting fallen nuts and acorns across the road and they'll be going into hibernation soon.
Our state CDC announced today that we should all take precautions as if we are sick. This doesn't make sense to me, because if we are all presuming we are sick, then there aren't any of us presumed healthy to do essential things like pick up groceries for us. So I'm confused. But I find that often now: I'm just plain confused by all the discussions about the right path to take. I expect that after I get free of my current self-quarantine, that it will still be recommended to go out as little as possible... for several months.
I don't know where CDC is (sorry!) but I imagine the thinking behind acting as if you're sick is more to do with how you interact with others. As in, if you were infected you would be sure to stay away from other people, no touching etc. However, in terms of your own welfare - so far as I understand the British take on it - if you are still well and not instructed to do otherwise, you may shop, following guidelines, for food and medicine. Some high-risk folk have been instructed to remain indoors and contact certain helplines for medicine and food, I understand.
The 'behaving if I were sick' thing can be hard to get. Up to a few days ago people were still trying to hug me on greeting and to stand close. They'd say 'but I'm okay'. And I would say 'maybe, but how do you know I am?'
Comments
Yes, it would. And when grocery stores calm down again, that might be possible. But when stores are limiting purchasers to one load of bread and one bottle of milk in order to prevent the shelves from being emptied in the first hour, families have to make multiple trips in a week.
Still, anything positive that helps the healthcare peeps has got to be good.
The problem seems to be a lot worse in the UK than elsewhere and owes much levels of JIT delivery adopted by UK supermarkets - the figures don't really indicate panic buying on a mass scale -- though you'll notice the egregious examples when you go shopping.
The TP thing is interesting, because its a particularly low value (and bulky) item - and any slight deviance from normal buying patterns will see a shortage - they are even less likely to reserve any of their remaining storage space (even assuming they have some, as many Metros/Expresses won't) for spare TP.
I think.
Johnson is due to Address The Nation at 830pm GMT. Please God, don't let him waffle, but say (and do) something positive.
It'll be a first (almost) if he does, but I believe in the efficacy of prayer.
Well, sometimes.
You may be right, but I hope to God you're not, especially as I may well be among that number.
For avoidance of doubt: I think Boogie was referring to Iceland, the (confusingly named) grocery store chain in the UK.
Well, any light relief is welcome in these Dark And Troubled Times!
When I die, I won't care about being buried in a mass grave, as long as they cover me in the traditional quicklime...
We go to join the majority dear boy.
Is that actually still true?
/pedant alert
Always.
Not me! I definitely went to Iceland, no new puppy is planned.
But ....
Will I resist if the call comes from Guide Dogs? - we’ll see. 🤔
(Those in 'at risk' groups might be safer saying nothing; my guy looked like he might be pissed).
There was also a Stop & Shop. The joke used to be that if the two merged, they could call themselves Stop & P.
'Buying chicken?'
'Reykjavik bit expensive for that'.
It is said that a porter at a station belonging to Another Railway, when asked how to get to a certain place, was sacked for telling the passenger to 'Go to the WC and P'...
They succeeded in getting Boris to speak simply and clearly.
With fines from the police for transgressors (England and Wales only? Though I see Nicola Sturgeon is saying police emergency powers are going to be enacted in Scotland in the next few days). We can have one fresh-air walk/run a day; shop only for groceries and seeing to medical requirements, if these can't be done online. If your work is necessary you may travel. Out of doors no more than two people to 'gather'. All shops apart from pharmacies and food shops to close. No events at all, even family ones eg, baptisms, weddings. Funerals will have another protocol.
Johnson's speech was short, to the point and fairly unambiguous.
They haven't said anything about schools yet, but I understand it as either a) they'll close and/or b) the keyworker definition will be tightened further.
I'm NHS admin. Our screening programme has shut, so there isn't anything for me to do atm, and working would require me to be redeployed. Under last week's keyworker definition I could send Dragonlet 1 to school (and they are running a skeleton service), and Dragonlet 2 to nursery 3 days a week, which is still open as it's the hospital staff one.
However I'm keeping them at home as I'm in a vulnerable group and I'm concerned they might pick it up outside the house. Occy Health guidance today was risk assess and move elsewhere if required, but I wouldn't know where that somewhere else would be, if not possible work from home, but there's nothing to do, and if not, paid leave. My manager, despite being a bit of a mother hen, was trying to argue I should be coming in as I'm a key worker, but I think that'll be harder to argue after tonight.
Because the lockdown has huge negative health effects on vulnerable people, especially seniors and people with disabilities. The seniors I see at the pool and at the gym can't just go ride a bike, as everyone keeps suggesting. Then there's the folks who depend on hydrotherapy for pain relief and mobility. People with mental illnesses need their routines to stay stable and functional.
And don't get me started on the social stresses. Most families are two paychecks away from being homeless. The lower your income, the less likely it is that you can work from home or have that mythical three-month nest egg. Those who are lucky enough to still have a job have no choice but to risk everyone's health to provide for their family, and then get lectured for it.
Public health is all about judging risks for large groups of people, and we know that inactivity and isolation are terrible for everybody's mental and physical health.
I currently have no washing machine (though one is due to be delivered later in the week) , but I need to have it fitted (it will require removal of the sink & a cupboard and other assorted pipework) and am reliant on launderettes.... Which presumably will be off limits.
I'm also NHS staff, and whilst we're not front line, last thing I heard, we were considered essential (though that may well change tomorrow). We can't work from home as we produce a product to order & all the quality control/assurance around that. Hope I'm still allowed to walk to work.
I'll go for runs early doors, to meet fewer people. I do one big shop every week, but buy fresh veg every day - that'll have to go down to 2/3 times. Apart from that, it's how I live my life anyway.
And the Boy has promised to teach me the basics of sword-and-shield fighting, so that'll get us out the fresh air. And hopefully not into A&E...
Also, I will try to buy food online if I can - although that looks pretty unlikely, since everyone is trying to do the same thing. So it will be a 20km round trip on the bike to get to the supermarket, which will sort out that day’s exercise I guess. I am lucky to be able to do that, I know. But just once a week, I think...
We just have to do what we have to do. I am glad people will be made to stick to it so that it is effective, for the sake of the vulnerable. I can’t imagine 3 weeks will sort it though; I think that’s just a softener, on the basis that if we were told about the realistic length of time on day 1 (three months?) then there would be a mass of people doing a Denethor.
It's not so much people shopping for six weeks that caused the problems, but everyone doing it on the same day. When I did my six week shop it was about a week before everyone went mad at once. The shelves were full of stock. I didn't actually hoard any particular thing and I didn't buy anything that health workers would particularly be needing.
When we were a military family we only went to the base commissary once a month so I'm used to shopping like that. Most Americans don't shop as often as people in the UK. Some have to drive a long way to get to a major grocery. That's why our refrigerators are so huge.
I’ve been wondering about domestic abuse. The situation is unprecedented, so I guess we don’t have any data, But I can’t imagine it’s not going to skyrocket.
Evidence of psychological impact of quarantine.
The second link does help to show, implicitly, why government measures and communications have been rolled out in a particular way. It is going to be very tough on a lot of people - but clearly the lockdown is the only effective method of containment and suppression at this time.
One reason is after so many false "promises" on other matters, many people no longer believe anything he says, although on this matter he is generally in line with the Chief Medical officer who always attends (and often speaks at) his press conferences. [Compare trump's farce in similar circumstances!]
More specifically, this weekend he chastises "young people" [who generally don't follow news broadcasts much any way] for gathering at thebeach on a hot day, while only a week earlier Morrison himself was determined to go the football and to his church's annual conference and mega-worship before he "ordered" such things to close.
'
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Glad to know the UK is getting more serious. I wish the info was wrong. But data is always our friend. It can inform our behaviour and keep is safe. If your country, locality, leaders aren't being sensible, please be sensible yourself.
Like some fucking zombie movie.
Healthcare and laboratory workers, emergency personnel, security officials as well as food and hygiene production workers will be exempt. To try and ensure that hospitals are not overwhelmed, a system will be put in place for centralised patient management for severe cases.
Not unexpected, but draconian. A great many job losses and food shortages anticipated.
Even the worse UK case predicted is probably vaguely comparable to UK losses (and we got off proportionally lightly) and less than six years.
If Britain follows Italy (and Italy mirrors itself) then it's probably going to be an order of magnitude less than WWII
But again, WWII is not a target, and we still have climate change to follow.
'Hibernating' sounds like the perfect word, Simon. I was just watching squirrels collecting fallen nuts and acorns across the road and they'll be going into hibernation soon.
I don't know where CDC is (sorry!) but I imagine the thinking behind acting as if you're sick is more to do with how you interact with others. As in, if you were infected you would be sure to stay away from other people, no touching etc. However, in terms of your own welfare - so far as I understand the British take on it - if you are still well and not instructed to do otherwise, you may shop, following guidelines, for food and medicine. Some high-risk folk have been instructed to remain indoors and contact certain helplines for medicine and food, I understand.
The 'behaving if I were sick' thing can be hard to get. Up to a few days ago people were still trying to hug me on greeting and to stand close. They'd say 'but I'm okay'. And I would say 'maybe, but how do you know I am?'