Ukrainian Counter offensive--will they be able to take Crimea?

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  • He was a minister; he'll be given the dignity of descending to his own oblast (next door).
  • In other news, here is a timeline provided by Newsweek that shows just where the lines of action stand after 18 months of war.

    Of note, Ukraine has been able to talk back 50% of the territory Russia had seized at the beginning of the war.

    Yes, it admits the counteroffensive launched by Ukraine in June has made little progress. But a 50% gain from Russia's highwater mark is nothing to sniff at.
  • Alan29Alan29 Shipmate
    I'm amazed he managed to get other passengers to fly with him.
  • Alan29 wrote: »
    I'm amazed he managed to get other passengers to fly with him.

    Were the other passengers Wagners top commanders? I would find that not a good idea because I would have wanted to insure someone would have been capable of taking over, hypothetically speaking.
  • ArielAriel Shipmate
    He had his deputy on board I believe.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Alan29 wrote: »
    I'm amazed he managed to get other passengers to fly with him.
    Were the other passengers Wagners top commanders? I would find that not a good idea because I would have wanted to insure someone would have been capable of taking over, hypothetically speaking.

    As already noted, Dmitry Utkin (one of Pirgozhin's lieutenants) was also on the passenger list. As for whether there is anyone able to take over in the event both men died, an organization whose leadership bench is only two deep is fragile in a way most mercenary companies try not to be.
  • ArielAriel Shipmate
    They'll have a chain of command. I wonder whether Prigozhin had imperial ambitions: the Wagner Group is enraged enough to think about marching on Moscow. It wouldn't surprise me if that's what this was about: fake his own death (he's done this once before), get them to do the work of dethroning Putin, then pop up at the end out of the blue and claim the throne.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    All 10 on board private jet dead - Russian agencies

    All 10 people on board the private jet belonging to Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died when it crashed near the city of Tver, the Russian news agency Intefax reports, quoting the Emergencies Ministry.

    The ministry said the 10 people - seven passengers and three crew members - were on board the plane when it came down, and that all of them are thought to be dead, according to Interfax.

    The ministry added that the plane came down near the settlement of Kuzhenkino, Tver Region.

    Courtesy of BBC News.

    Does anyone believe this was an accident ?

    I'm still hedging my bets.

    Granted, IF it's true that social-media sites credibly linked to Wagner are blaming Putin, then at the very least, it seems that Putin's own erstwhile allies think he's responsible, which would be telling. (Though it might just mean they now hate him so much they're willing to assume the absolute worst about him.)
  • The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) has come out with a new report that says the counteroffensive is going better than most people think. The key point is as follows:
    On or around August 22, Ukraine’s troops liberated the village of Robotyne, some 90km (around 55 miles) from the Sea of Azov, a major accomplishment given the enormous efforts of the Russian invaders to fortify and hold it.

    From here, the Ukrainians need to advance by a further 10–15 km (7–10 miles), in order to range their guns on Russia’s east-west transport routes that are critical to the ability of its army and armed forces to fight. If Ukraine can interdict these road and rail links, it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight.

    Just a little bit closer, now.

    Meanwhile, the Ukrainians just took out a key missile base in Crimea. More on that later.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    edited August 2023
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Meanwhile, the Ukrainians just took out a key missile base in Crimea. More on that later.

    The Ukrainians are claiming to have conducted a successful amphibious operation in Crimea.
    Ukrainian forces have carried out their most complex and ambitious operations to date against Russian military facilities in the occupied region of Crimea, officials in Kyiv have said.

    Special forces landed on the western shore of Crimea, near the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak, in a joint operation with the country’s Navy, according to Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

    “While performing the task, Ukrainian defenders clashed with the occupier’s units. As a result, the enemy suffered losses among its personnel and destroyed enemy equipment,” the intelligence agency said.

    While they were there, the Ukrainian unit also raised the national flag, it added.

    It's hard to tell from the vague geographical indicators, but "Olenivka and Mayak" seem pretty near to the destroyed missile base, at least according to my research assistant Mr. Go Ogle.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    The (apparent) death of Pirgozhin may have broader diplomatic ramifications. Remember that one of the conditions Putin agreed to in order to stop the Wagner coup was to guarantee Pirgozhin's personal safety. Now Pirgozhin and two of his top men have died in a way most people assume was at the direction of Vladimir Putin. Think about the implications of that for any future counterparty wanting to negotiate a deal with Putin. Their assumption will be that Putin will violate any agreement the first time it seems convenient for him to do so.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    Surely they should have realised this before though? I can't believe Prigozhin trusted him in the first place!
  • GwaiGwai Epiphanies Host
    Surely they should have realised this before though? I can't believe Prigozhin trusted him in the first place!

    I've wondered that too. Maybe he thought he could outsmart Putin?
  • My guess is Putin made him an offer he thought he could not refuse. Amnesty? Never trust the guy in the Kremlin.
  • The Ukrainian dome strikes inside Russia is causing the Kremlin to do bizarre things, like covering the wings of their Tu-95 strike aircraft, NATO calls them the Bears, with tires. The thought is the tires are intended to absorb a drone strike on the plane. However, drones can still hit the fuselage of the plane, or fly under the wings. Story here..

    Darn Ukrainians, who said they could strike in Russian territory?
  • I'd have though it's more likely they're using the tires to try to break up the outline of the bombers and thus make them harder to hit in the first place. Some form of jury-rigged dazzle camouflage, in other words.
  • I got to thinking last night while the Tu-95 is a legitimate target, it is part of the nuclear strike force. Ukraine will likely avoid hitting these planes because of what they represent. If they would be used to carpet bomb, then yes, Ukraine will have to go after them.
  • They are being used in conventional bombing raids on Ukraine.
  • They are being used in conventional bombing raids on Ukraine.

    I wasn't sure of that. I do see they have been used to launch missiles into Ukraine too. They are legitimate targets.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    They are being used in conventional bombing raids on Ukraine.

    I wasn't sure of that. I do see they have been used to launch missiles into Ukraine too. They are legitimate targets.

    I would have thought any Russian military asset was a legitimate target for Ukraine, regardless of whether it was currently being used.
  • 70,000 Ukrainian dead. As she demonstrated in the C20th ‘Russia's ability to absorb pain appears limitless’.

    13:5
  • Cuba discovers Russian trafficing ring recruting Cubans to fight in Ukraine.

    Migrants in Russia being forced to fight in Ukraine.

    All because Russian young people are refusing to join the service.

    No doubt Ukraine has suffered the most, but they are still committed to the fight. Russians, not so much.
  • I see on Google news Ukraine has lost one of their Challengers which was donated by Britian. I think that is one of 17 Challengers. That caused me to look at the Leopard. Ukraine has 71 of them. So far they lost only 5. Ukraine as 109 Bradleys, 16 of them have been damaged--some are repairable, though.

    The Bradley is much different from the Challengers or the Leapords. It is a light armored vehicle designed for rapid response and scouting missions.

    It is not surprising they are being damaged more than the other two.

    Some time back @Martin54 mentioned the heavy defenses the Russians have put up, in particular, the Dragons Teeth. These are four-foot-high pyramids that are supposed to stop tanks or other armored vehicles. The Ukrainians say they are not that hard to get around.

    What has been harder are the mine fields which are very extensive in some parts. Not so much in other places.

    Progress, though, is still happening.
  • edited September 2023
    This offensive and this war is much more like the Western Front of WWI or the Italian Front of WWII. Breaking well-prepared defensive lines without maneuvere is very hard and very slow. Progress gets measured in meters until everything is breached and maneuvere becomes possible.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited September 2023
    Thanks @Sober Preacher's Kid. Looking at the terrain, if they're now behind Robotyne they're in a box canyon it looks like. Surrounded by enhanced natural fortifications: ridges, rivers. They aren't able to do what Manstein repeatedly did and tear up behind the breach. If they could have, they would have and it would be headline news. It's taken three months to get through the first line. February at this rate for the second, to take Tokmak less than half way to Melitopol which is less than half way to Crimea, with the autumn rasputitsa taking out October/November.
  • Better map. They are so boxed in.
  • Looks flat to me.
  • Maps tend to be.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Maps tend to be.

    Your links are not maps. The are satellite views of the Robotyne area which show no significant land obstructions. I have been trying to find a topographical map of the area, no such luck. If you find one, please send me a link. The maps that I have found show the area in a low lying plain.

    I could be wrong, though.
  • You have to buy contour maps. If you can't see the ridges and defiles of the highland to the east, especially in the whole right hand side of the last map, the massively fortified villages to the south and west, with the rivers, the formidable second line defences linking them on the BBC map, 8 pages down, there's nothing I can do about that.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    You have to buy contour maps. If you can't see the ridges and defiles of the highland to the east, especially in the whole right hand side of the last map, the massively fortified villages to the south and west, with the rivers, the formidable second line defences linking them on the BBC map, 8 pages down, there's nothing I can do about that.

    I see the slight ridgeline to the east, but I do not think it is insurmountable. Now, when you talk about insurmountable geographic formations, as in a box canyon, I would think you are talking about something like this. This canyon is in the area I grew up in. You can definitely see the high canyon walls which would be next to impossible to drive a tank over.
  • It's metaphorical mate. They haven't moved in days. Because they can"t. They are in a box canyon, a cul-de-sac, of formidable fortifications.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited September 2023
    Oh, and they've got 4 weeks. After 14. May be they'll break out the bag in 3 and have a week maneuvering. Add 3 at most.
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    Oh, and they've got 4 weeks. After 14. May be they'll break out the bag in 3 and have a week maneuvering. Add 3 at most.

    All the Ukrainians have to do is cut off Russian supply lines at Melitopol which is 80 km, about 50 miles, from Robotyne. If they can move the line 13 miles per week, or 20 km per week, Russia will have problems holding on to the occupied lands.
  • They haven't managed that in an order of magnitude of weeks. Why would they?
  • As you once pointed out, Martin, the Russian defensive line would be very difficult to penetrate. Well, they have broken through now around Robotyne. It is not going to be a cake walk though, but since the defensive line is breeched it will become easier.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    As you once pointed out, Martin, the Russian defensive line would be very difficult to penetrate. Well, they have broken through now around Robotyne. It is not going to be a cake walk though, but since the defensive line is breeched it will become easier.

    Why?
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Martin54 wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    As you once pointed out, Martin, the Russian defensive line would be very difficult to penetrate. Well, they have broken through now around Robotyne. It is not going to be a cake walk though, but since the defensive line is breeched it will become easier.

    Why?
    Only if there's a major breech across a broad front.

    AIUI, Russian defences have followed a fairly classic three lines. First line mainly mine fields and anti-tank obstacles with machine gun bunkers and other fixed points to create killing fields and cross fire, with every spot surveyed in for artillery support. Second line having the bulk of troops, both to defend the line and launch counter attacks against breaks in the first line, usually the strongest line of defence. Third line weakest of them, reserve troops ready to reinforce the second line if needed. A narrow breach of those three lines of defence leaves strong defending forces in the second line and reserves in the third to either side, which presents a massive danger of counter attacks from the flanks nipping off the forces that broke through.

    Breaking through is the first part of what's needed to make significant advances. The breach needs to be wide enough that enough forces can get through to defend against counter attacks, to advance forward and also loop forces behind the enemy defensive line to further widen the breach from behind. All to happen fast enough that new defensive lines aren't formed so you need to do it all over again. That needs not only a break in the defensive line, but also a large force available to push through and widen the gap to exploit it quickly. Which brings back the analogy with the 1914-18 western front. The British and French attacks regularly broke through the first line of German trenches and even the second or third lines, but doing so regularly required drawing in the troops who should have exploited that gap meaning there were insufficient forces to advance through the gap a long way, it was usually too slow and the Germans put in additional deeper defences that stalled the advance, and often the flanking German forces hadn't been weakened enough and counter attacks from the side closed the gap forcing a withdrawal back towards the starting point to prevent advance forces being cut off. We've not seen enough of the Ukrainian advances to know exactly how big a gap they've managed to make, whether they hold it securely enough to hold off a counter attack or what forces they can get through the gap. What we do know is that they've not made a big enough break through with support available to advance rapidly - because they aren't doing so. If they don't move quickly enough they'll face a new Russian defensive line and stall with just the small gains made, or even worse face Russian flanking counter attacks and needing to withdraw from what they've gained.
  • Your understanding does me Alan. As in most areas.
  • The Ukrainians moved forward 1.5 km--about a mile, today. The range of the BM 30 rocket system is 70 km. The HIMAR system is 80 km using standard munitions. That means the Russian supply lines are already at risk.
  • As they have been for 15 months.
  • The Ukrainians think they can cut the land connection from Russia to Crimea by winter.

    UK and American intelligence say that can be possible. They put the Russian force in Crimea area at about 80% of the necessary troop strength with 55% of the needed equipment. The Russians have already committed their reserves to the fight. They are now bringing in Airborne troops to secure defense lines, which is unusual since Airborne is designed for offensive projection of strength.

    As long as the Ukrainians have the will to fight, and its allies are willing to fund and supply it, the fight will go on for as long as it takes.

    I will remind you Russia has lost 80% of all the land it seized during the invasion.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    The Ukrainians think they can cut the land connection from Russia to Crimea by winter.

    UK and American intelligence say that can be possible. They put the Russian force in Crimea area at about 80% of the necessary troop strength with 55% of the needed equipment. The Russians have already committed their reserves to the fight. They are now bringing in Airborne troops to secure defense lines, which is unusual since Airborne is designed for offensive projection of strength.

    As long as the Ukrainians have the will to fight, and its allies are willing to fund and supply it, the fight will go on for as long as it takes.

    I will remind you Russia has lost 80% of all the land it seized during the invasion.

    No you can't because it hasn't.

    They have 6 weeks at most to get any armour, any artillery in to their small salient between the first two lines.
  • You better take a look at the maps, Martin. At the high-water mark of the Russian invasion, Russian forces were within 13 miles if Kyiv. The Northeast corner of Ukraine was under Russian control. Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson had all been seized by the Russians. Bakhmut fell later. Now, all four cities have been regained by the Ukrainians. The Northeast territory is clear of them. The Russians have been pushed back to where they started with the occupied territories. There is a foothold near Melitopol which puts the Russian supply lines within artillery range of the Ukrainians now. Yes, the Russians have lost 80% of the lands they had seized during the invasion.
  • Made a mistake. I meant to say Takmak is very close to the Ukrainian advance. If they can get it, they will put the Russian supply lines within artillary range. Melitopol is too far.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited September 2023
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    You better take a look at the maps, Martin. At the high-water mark of the Russian invasion, Russian forces were within 13 miles if Kyiv. The Northeast corner of Ukraine was under Russian control. Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson had all been seized by the Russians. Bakhmut fell later. Now, all four cities have been regained by the Ukrainians. The Northeast territory is clear of them. The Russians have been pushed back to where they started with the occupied territories. There is a foothold near Melitopol which puts the Russian supply lines within artillery range of the Ukrainians now. Yes, the Russians have lost 80% of the lands they had seized during the invasion.

    No they haven't. Which maps? These? Or these?
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Made a mistake. I meant to say Takmak is very close to the Ukrainian advance. If they can get it, they will put the Russian supply lines within artillary range. Melitopol is too far.

    Where's 'Takmak'? And the source of your 80%?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited September 2023
    It's taken over three months to get to Robotyne. Tokmak is about the same distance again. With a month of rasputitsa thrown in.
  • The US is releasing the Abrams tank to Ukraine. The delay was because of the training needed to operate it. Ukrainian troops had been trained in other NATO countries. That is now complete.

    If they can get to Tokmak by November or December, then that fits my prediction. Yes, we will be getting into the rainy season shortly, but then comes the end of November, when winter hits and the ground will be frozen for several weeks.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    The US is releasing the Abrams tank to Ukraine. The delay was because of the training needed to operate it. Ukrainian troops had been trained in other NATO countries. That is now complete.

    If they can get to Tokmak by November or December, then that fits my prediction. Yes, we will be getting into the rainy season shortly, but then comes the end of November, when winter hits and the ground will be frozen for several weeks.

    What is your prediction of the difference the 31 Abrams will make outside the Robotyne salient? When will they enter the salient? Do you predict? With any other armour and artillery? Apart from the trashed British Challenger IIs When will they advance through the still formidable second line defences in depth, through the thousands of stacked mines, all the way to Tokmak? If they can get to Tokmak by November, despite the rasputitsa of November, how? What do you predict?

    What they need more than Abrams is hundreds of MICLICs. Any in the salient yet?
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