The Russian economy, according to multiple news outlets, is near breaking point with the combination of the costs of the war and the existing sanctions starting to really bite. They need to be maintained, and if secondary tariffs against nations that have not imposed sanctions gets them onboard so that markets for Russian exports shrink further then that's only going to help. It should be noted that that will include a significant number of European nations, who are still dependent upon Russian gas even after three years of trying to change to other energy sources - the volume of gas purchased by European countries has reduced by only a few %, with European nations paying Russia more for gas than the support given to Ukraine.
Though, the Russian leadership will probably continue to produce munitions and draft larger portions of the workforce into the military despite the pain the Russian people experience from that, irrespective of sanctions.
I think more tariffs against Russia should be tried.
This does seem to be an instance where Trump's hammer may actually make contact with a nail rather than just making holes in the wall and smashing up the furniture.
Given that Trump is both very lazy and very stupid this was the likeliest outcome by a prohibitive margin. For those that believed Trump about this, if you're surprised by this after ten years of watching this guy, that's on you.
In this Podcast, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart interview Sir Alex Younger, former head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (aka MI6).
As you might expect, it is a fascinating discussion across the board. The story of how Alex told his mother he was a spy is brilliant!
Relevant to our purposes here is his analysis of Ukraine:
The Time Stamp for the free version (in the link) is 37:35- 46:37. Sir Alex was asked about the prospects for Ukraine if the USA withdraws its support completely.
In short he says
1. This is quite a likely scenario - likely enough that Europe should be planning on the basis that this is what Trump is going to do
2. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine
3. Ukraine cannot without US support push Russia back
4. Ukraine's technological capability has been transformed in the past two years and now is a genuine world leader in drones
5. Without US support, the front line would not hold but Russia won't be able to complete its takeover of Ukraine - Russia will make gains but won't be able to consolidate them and
6. Russsia's expeditionary capability is decimated. It will be at least 5 years before they can directly attack anyone else.
7. Europe needs to stand up.
Now, this tallies with a lot of what I've said before, hence I may be guilty of confirmational bias. However, there is particular reasons which I explained as to why I see it this way. Here is someone with incredible insight to the geopolitics who's view of Russia is clear eyed but also it is clear that Russia has and is strategically failing.
The big wild card in these types of analysis is the question of how long Russia can keep up the current level of attrition, at least as far as equipment goes. Russia has re-tooled its economy for greater military production, but it's still falling short as shown by the fact that it needs to import artillery shells from North Korea and attack drones from Iran. The real unknown is when will the Soviet-era stockpiles run out? This is a hugely speculative question (and obviously the Russian government does not want to comment) but most experts expect that the last of the usable Soviet-era heavy equipment will be taken out of mothballs and deployed sometime this year or in early 2026. What happens to Russia's ability to make advances when the last of the Red Army tanks hit the front line, start suffering attrition, and can no longer be replaced in kind is unknown.
4. Ukraine's technological capability has been transformed in the past two years and now is a genuine world leader in drones
Their sea drones appear to be quite interesting. The Ukrainians have outfitted their sea drones to take down Russian aircraft. Story here.. What will they think of next?
4. Ukraine's technological capability has been transformed in the past two years and now is a genuine world leader in drones
Their sea drones appear to be quite interesting. The Ukrainians have outfitted their sea drones to take down Russian aircraft. Story here.. What will they think of next?
4. Ukraine's technological capability has been transformed in the past two years and now is a genuine world leader in drones
Their sea drones appear to be quite interesting. The Ukrainians have outfitted their sea drones to take down Russian aircraft. Story here.. What will they think of next?
Necessity is the mother of invention.
It's not just technological innovation, it's also doctrine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have re-organized themselves since the beginning of the war and made Unmanned Systems Forces (a.k.a. drones) their own branch of the military. As far as I know they are the first large military to re-organize themselves this way.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20x7z36d56o
I think more tariffs against Russia should be tried.
Though, the Russian leadership will probably continue to produce munitions and draft larger portions of the workforce into the military despite the pain the Russian people experience from that, irrespective of sanctions.
This does seem to be an instance where Trump's hammer may actually make contact with a nail rather than just making holes in the wall and smashing up the furniture.
Indeed. Here's a historical refresher on what was promised. [ content warning: Donald Trump ]
Here's where we are now. [ content warning: Marco Rubio ]
Given that Trump is both very lazy and very stupid this was the likeliest outcome by a prohibitive margin. For those that believed Trump about this, if you're surprised by this after ten years of watching this guy, that's on you.
In this Podcast, Alastair Campbell and Rory Stewart interview Sir Alex Younger, former head of Britain's Secret Intelligence Service (aka MI6).
As you might expect, it is a fascinating discussion across the board. The story of how Alex told his mother he was a spy is brilliant!
Relevant to our purposes here is his analysis of Ukraine:
The Time Stamp for the free version (in the link) is 37:35- 46:37. Sir Alex was asked about the prospects for Ukraine if the USA withdraws its support completely.
In short he says
1. This is quite a likely scenario - likely enough that Europe should be planning on the basis that this is what Trump is going to do
2. Russia cannot conquer Ukraine
3. Ukraine cannot without US support push Russia back
4. Ukraine's technological capability has been transformed in the past two years and now is a genuine world leader in drones
5. Without US support, the front line would not hold but Russia won't be able to complete its takeover of Ukraine - Russia will make gains but won't be able to consolidate them and
6. Russsia's expeditionary capability is decimated. It will be at least 5 years before they can directly attack anyone else.
7. Europe needs to stand up.
Now, this tallies with a lot of what I've said before, hence I may be guilty of confirmational bias. However, there is particular reasons which I explained as to why I see it this way. Here is someone with incredible insight to the geopolitics who's view of Russia is clear eyed but also it is clear that Russia has and is strategically failing.
AFZ
Their sea drones appear to be quite interesting. The Ukrainians have outfitted their sea drones to take down Russian aircraft. Story here.. What will they think of next?
Necessity is the mother of invention.
It's not just technological innovation, it's also doctrine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have re-organized themselves since the beginning of the war and made Unmanned Systems Forces (a.k.a. drones) their own branch of the military. As far as I know they are the first large military to re-organize themselves this way.