Purgatory 2024: UK Election (Purgatory)

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Comments

  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    edited July 2024
    Let's see whether the effect is repeated in Blyth.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    Very similar. 10857 for Reform in Blyth against 20030 for Labour.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    I think it's almost inevitable that Reform will garner a fair number of votes this time around, mostly (I expect) at the expense of the tories.

    A way to go yet, of course! (Though I hope Farage doesn't win in Clacton).

    The two declared so far are at least Labour holds, with fair majorities.
  • Pretty low turnouts in the two results so far as well.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
  • Too early to know anything really.

    But the modelling of how many seats gets updated as real results are added into exit poll data. Prof Curtis just said that Labour share/gain in line with the model. Reform slightly underperforming compared to Exit Poll model.

    It's ok. Breathe, everyone.

    AFZ

  • Pretty low turnouts in the two results so far as well.

    Yes, I noticed that - just over 50% in each. Disappointing, though Labour increased their share.
  • Pretty low turnouts in the two results so far as well.

    Yes, I noticed that - just over 50% in each. Disappointing, though Labour increased their share.

    These seats always have low turnouts. That's one of the reasons they declare early. Turnout down a little in both but only a little.

  • Pretty low turnouts in the two results so far as well.

    Yes, I noticed that - just over 50% in each. Disappointing, though Labour increased their share.

    These seats always have low turnouts. That's one of the reasons they declare early. Turnout down a little in both but only a little.

    Ah, I see. Thanks!

  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    Telford wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?

    The problem is that people have voted for them.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Telford wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?

    No. The unreasonable bit is choosing to vote for them.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Telford wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?

    Not unreasonable, no. But the more-or-less unprecedented nature of the event might make pundits more likely to hedge their bets before the results are more firmly established.
  • The RogueThe Rogue Shipmate
    First past the post does not help a company like Reform. Another voting system would give them more seats.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    The Rogue wrote: »
    First past the post does not help a company like Reform.

    I always knew the rotten boroughs would one day rise to defend British democracy.
  • Reform are currently second on total votes.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    KarlLB wrote: »
    Telford wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?

    The problem is that people have voted for them.
    Telford wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?

    No. The unreasonable bit is choosing to vote for them.

    In a democracy, do you deny people the choice ?
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    Telford wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.

    Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).

    (*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
    If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?

    Not unreasonable, no. But the more-or-less unprecedented nature of the event might make pundits more likely to hedge their bets before the results are more firmly established.

    Richi was correct when he warned that if you vote Reform, you are making it easy for Labour to win.

    Rich has made a few mistakes but the truth is that the Conservatives are being punished for the premierships of Johnson and Truss
  • Galloway lost.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Galloway lost.

    He shoulda run for Reform.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Reform are currently second on total votes.

    I'd actually be surprised if that holds till morning. Though I can't really say why.
  • It’s already changed.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Grant Shapps has lost his seat :)
  • Bloody hell - the Tories have just gained Leicester East from Labour!
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited July 2024
    I think Clayton is to declare shortly, and is the only place I am rooting for the Tories.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Bloody hell - the Tories have just gained Leicester East from Labour!

    I suspect that is influenced by the conflict in Gaza - but I could be wrong.
  • Corbyn won in Islington North
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Corbyn held his seat with a 7247 majority, Labour came second.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Farage has been elected :(
  • edited July 2024
    Farage won Clacton. Nearly half of all votes cast in the constituency.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited July 2024
    45% swing from Conservative to Reform ! (The share of other parties barely shifted,)
  • I think that’s the story of the night across the country. The huge Labour majority will be because the Tories have lost vote share to Reform, not because Labour have gained it.
  • Labour have lost the other Leicester seat as well, this time to an independent.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Yes, the size of it - though the labour vote share has gone up overall too.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Reform have taken Great Yarmouth
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited July 2024
    The turnout is the lowest since 2005 - it will be interesting to see to what extent photo ID requirements have suppressed the vote.
  • That it’s been a foregone conclusion since before the election was even called won’t have helped that either.
  • Greens take Bristol Central
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Bloody hell - the Tories have just gained Leicester East from Labour!

    Wow. Can you imagine being the Labour MP who loses on THIS particular evening?
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    45% swing from Conservative to Reform ! (The share of other parties barely shifted,)

    That's for Clacton?
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    That it’s been a foregone conclusion since before the election was even called won’t have helped that either.

    True, and the non-party political issues with the Tories (e.g D Day, partygate) will have inflated the Reform vote. Whereas Gaza is definitely effecting the labour vote. In both cases, I think these things will also have held turnout down somewhat.
  • Mordaunt has lost
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited July 2024
    Penny Mordaunt has lost to Labour ! Definitely from Reform splitting the vote.
  • Colchester is the tipping point.

    Labour has taken Colchester with a 20.3% swing

    It will be official quite soon that Labour has a majority.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Penny Mordaunt has lost to Labour ! Definitely from Reform splitting the vote.

    Quite the cock-up.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Sunak and Hunt held their seats, disappointingly.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Sunak has conceded.
  • alienfromzogalienfromzog Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    Sunak and Hunt held their seats, disappointingly.

    I never expected Sunak to lose.* Hunt's a disappointment though.

    AFZ

    *The by-election will be interesting though...
  • Sunak has conceded defeat to Starmer.
This discussion has been closed.