None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
But the modelling of how many seats gets updated as real results are added into exit poll data. Prof Curtis just said that Labour share/gain in line with the model. Reform slightly underperforming compared to Exit Poll model.
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
No. The unreasonable bit is choosing to vote for them.
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
Not unreasonable, no. But the more-or-less unprecedented nature of the event might make pundits more likely to hedge their bets before the results are more firmly established.
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
No. The unreasonable bit is choosing to vote for them.
None of the TV election specials are discussing that Reform share yet. I think they don't want to.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
If many millions of ordinary people have voted for this party, is it unreasonable for them to get a few seats?
Not unreasonable, no. But the more-or-less unprecedented nature of the event might make pundits more likely to hedge their bets before the results are more firmly established.
Richi was correct when he warned that if you vote Reform, you are making it easy for Labour to win.
Rich has made a few mistakes but the truth is that the Conservatives are being punished for the premierships of Johnson and Truss
I think that’s the story of the night across the country. The huge Labour majority will be because the Tories have lost vote share to Reform, not because Labour have gained it.
That it’s been a foregone conclusion since before the election was even called won’t have helped that either.
True, and the non-party political issues with the Tories (e.g D Day, partygate) will have inflated the Reform vote. Whereas Gaza is definitely effecting the labour vote. In both cases, I think these things will also have held turnout down somewhat.
Comments
A way to go yet, of course! (Though I hope Farage doesn't win in Clacton).
The two declared so far are at least Labour holds, with fair majorities.
Perhaps they're hesitant outta fear of making pre-mature forecasts? 13 seats for a far-right populist party outside N. Ireland would be pretty uncharted territory for the UK(*).
(*) Not that far-right populism is unknown in old blighty, but, for better or worse, it tends to function as a faction of the tories.
But the modelling of how many seats gets updated as real results are added into exit poll data. Prof Curtis just said that Labour share/gain in line with the model. Reform slightly underperforming compared to Exit Poll model.
It's ok. Breathe, everyone.
AFZ
Yes, I noticed that - just over 50% in each. Disappointing, though Labour increased their share.
These seats always have low turnouts. That's one of the reasons they declare early. Turnout down a little in both but only a little.
Ah, I see. Thanks!
The problem is that people have voted for them.
No. The unreasonable bit is choosing to vote for them.
Not unreasonable, no. But the more-or-less unprecedented nature of the event might make pundits more likely to hedge their bets before the results are more firmly established.
I always knew the rotten boroughs would one day rise to defend British democracy.
In a democracy, do you deny people the choice ?
Richi was correct when he warned that if you vote Reform, you are making it easy for Labour to win.
Rich has made a few mistakes but the truth is that the Conservatives are being punished for the premierships of Johnson and Truss
He shoulda run for Reform.
I'd actually be surprised if that holds till morning. Though I can't really say why.
I suspect that is influenced by the conflict in Gaza - but I could be wrong.
Wow. Can you imagine being the Labour MP who loses on THIS particular evening?
That's for Clacton?
True, and the non-party political issues with the Tories (e.g D Day, partygate) will have inflated the Reform vote. Whereas Gaza is definitely effecting the labour vote. In both cases, I think these things will also have held turnout down somewhat.
Labour has taken Colchester with a 20.3% swing
It will be official quite soon that Labour has a majority.
Quite the cock-up.
I never expected Sunak to lose.* Hunt's a disappointment though.
AFZ
*The by-election will be interesting though...