Purgatory 2024: UK Election (Purgatory)

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  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Reform appears to have wiggled its way up to five seats.

    How many seats does a party need for official status in the Commons?
  • Speaking of the new Cabinet, there aren't any surprises so far. Sir Keir appears to be simply deleting the word *shadow* from their job descriptions, which seems eminently pragmatic.

    Lisa Nandy may replace Thangam Debonnaire, unseated in Bristol by the Greens' Carla Denyer, as culture secretary.

    There will be a fair few quite young* women on the front bench, and on the Labour - and other - backbenches, which IMHO cannot but be a Good Thing.

    (*well, young to me - I'm 73).
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
    I was going to say it’s been a bad case of regulatory capture, but that’s not entirely fair.

    There’s been governmental failure to implement change because of a doctrinaire policy of removing red tape along with severe underfunding of inspection capacity.

    And then there’s been a system of farming out regulatory testing which has led to a pressure to prioritise keeping manufacturers happy so they continue to pay for tests, and the concealment of unsuccessful testing.

    I hope there will be action, but I’m not sure there’s a quick fix, and there’s an expensive legacy of substandard, defective, or dangerous buildings which will take time and money to sort out.
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    Reform appears to have wiggled its way up to five seats.

    How many seats does a party need for official status in the Commons?

    As far as I know the only official statuses are the Government and the Official Opposition.

  • KarlLB wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Reform appears to have wiggled its way up to five seats.

    How many seats does a party need for official status in the Commons?

    As far as I know the only official statuses are the Government and the Official Opposition.

    yes - I was thinking the Greens have had 1 for ages...

    hang on - there is Short Money. I think off the top of my head that goes to parties with at least 2 seats OR 1 seat and at least 150,000 GE votes.

    Which would have covered Caroline Lucas era Greens with their one MP. Also Douglas Carswell era UKIP.

    So Reform are well through and out the other side of that baseline.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    KarlLB wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Reform appears to have wiggled its way up to five seats.

    How many seats does a party need for official status in the Commons?

    As far as I know the only official statuses are the Government and the Official Opposition.

    There are some privileges at PMQs for the third party. I hope the lib dems can match the contributions of the SNP in that regard.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    KarlLB wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Reform appears to have wiggled its way up to five seats.

    How many seats does a party need for official status in the Commons?

    As far as I know the only official statuses are the Government and the Official Opposition.

    Interesting. The wikipedia article on "Official party status" contains the sub-heading "Canadian political practice". So it would seem to be one of our brilliant innovations. I believe it impacts a party's financing, and how much time they get for question period.

    Shout-out to @Sober Preacher's Kid and @Augustine the Aleut, if they're interested.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    Penny Mordaunt has lost to Labour ! Definitely from Reform splitting the vote.

    It annoys me that good people like her got rejected and people like Gavin Williamson easily got re-elected
  • Yes, I agree, but alas! all tories are tainted with the toxicity of Johnson, Truss, and the rest.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    The Rogue wrote: »
    It disn't stop him continuing to put out the lies about tax under Labour and attempting to mislead the voters in other ways. I think he seemed decent because he kept out of the limelight which was easy when Mr Johnson was there to take it all. But when he did put his head over the parapet as prime minister he revealed the Tory side of him.

    Were they all lies? In the nest 12 months we will find out .
  • I remain cautious about Streeting but not despairing.

    He's said some stupid things (imv) and also some very sensible things that show he gets it.

    If Labour are smart they will end the Junior Doctor's dispute and do so quickly - like next week, even. And it's easy. There is a lot of anger in the profession and people feel that they are entitled to pay restoration, I'll tell you why: Throughout 2010-16, Doctors saw significant pay erosion and said nothing because they are a well-off group and knew they could absorb it. But that erosion has continued. Hunt destroyed all trust in the 2016 dispute which was not about money. Then there was Covid. And over all of this time, there has been a continual worsening of working conditions. It is really tough and the pay is not sufficient. Another thing that the media conveniently leaves out is that doctors in post graduate training have many significant extra costs as well. The level of disposable income is actually surprisingly small.

    So Doctors want pay-restoration. Streeting has said no to an immediate up-lift of all of what doctors are asking for. But that's fine, because there is a deal to be done.

    The BMA will take something like 15-18% now with a commitment to good faith working towards restoration over the next few years. That would cost about £1Bn. Streeting can do that. It's basically what the Scottish government did to end the strikes.

    On a broader level he has said that the overall funding envelope cannot expand much and the NHS needs to be more efficient with the resources it has. That sent shockwaves through NHS workers who heard it as we all know there is no more fat to trim. We are definitely at the stage where most 'efficiencies' we are forced to implement cut any reserve out of the system and make us less efficient. However, in detailed interviews he's clarified this and I came away much more hopeful. Here's a high level point, he made: Primary care is hugely under-resourced. That needs fixing. But if you do fix it, then your A&E presentations fall because a huge part of the pressure on A&E is people going there because they can't get help elsewhere. A GP appointment costs the NHS about £30; A&E presentation £180. So if you do it right, you end up saving money. Similarly, the other big pressure is not being able to get people out of hospital because of the collapse of social care. Fixing that will be expensive but social care is still cheaper than a hospital bed. If he is serious about this approach, then he will be able to make a big difference and our problem of not having enough resources to meet the demand will ease.

    The other fix that's needed is that NHS capital spending was decimated by Osborne/Hunt 10 -14 years ago. Again this is spending that within 2-3 years makes for big savings elsewhere. So even within the limitations, there are still reasons for hope.

    I have decided to judge him on what he actually does.

    AFZ

    Just to say, Streeting has only had the job for half a day and he's already met with the BMA. Proper talks next week. Watch this space.

    As an aside, really good interview with Streeting on The Rest Is Politics podcast. Many here would be interested in his perspective on being both a Christian and Gay. He was eloquent and honest. I know not for this board, but does speak to his character.

    AFZ
  • Apologies for the double post. I think Lammy a good choice for FS, but I'm a little sad the job didn't go to Douglas Alexander. Especially with his experience as SoS for International Development and previously shadowing this brief, I think he would have been amazing. I think it would have been a very big blow to Lammy though... torn.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited July 2024
    Nice to see someone in public life demonstrating you can be both - *looks sideways at Tim Farron*

    ( @alienfromzog - which episode of the podcast ? )
  • What this election has revealed is the genuine natural level of support for "hard right" (racist) politics in England.

    Whilst the Conservatives were the only realistic party to vote for on the right, the fascist/racist faction could be disguised by the more reasonable low-tax/small-government Tories. But now we see what has always been there - that there is (& always has been) a considerable portion of the English population that is naturally racist.

    For this reason, I hope that Reform and the Conservatives stay separate - so that we can continue to see this nasty part of the population. If the two parties merge, we will be back to the situation where the truly nasty people can be hidden. Let's have the Reform party. Let's have these people and their supporters out in open. Then we really can challenge them and expose them for who they really are.

    (Just to clarify - I deliberately used the word English as I see this as a particularly English problem and far less of a problem in the other parts of the UK.)
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    There was always a steady vote for the BNP and it switched almost wholesale to UKIP in the European elections. I can’t remember the old numbers, we had a smaller population the, but I think they used to get around 1.5 million, and I think it has pretty much stayed with them.
  • Nice to see someone in public life demonstrating you can be both - *looks sideways at Tim Farron*

    ( @alienfromzog - which episode of the podcast ? )


    This link should work:
    https://open.spotify.com/episode/5EIdqdz9UDwMnnTbxJFTYL
  • KarlLB wrote: »
    stetson wrote: »
    Reform appears to have wiggled its way up to five seats.

    How many seats does a party need for official status in the Commons?

    As far as I know the only official statuses are the Government and the Official Opposition.

    There are some privileges at PMQs for the third party. I hope the lib dems can match the contributions of the SNP in that regard.

    *recent* contributions - Blackford was bloody awful. Flynn a massive improvement.

  • (Just to clarify - I deliberately used the word English as I see this as a particularly English problem and far less of a problem in the other parts of the UK.)

    Hard disagree - certain parties in Scotland provide cover for the ‘blood and soilers’ in probably numbers proportionate to the population.


  • stetsonstetson Shipmate

    (Just to clarify - I deliberately used the word English as I see this as a particularly English problem and far less of a problem in the other parts of the UK.)

    Hard disagree - certain parties in Scotland provide cover for the ‘blood and soilers’ in probably numbers proportionate to the population.

    Which parties are you thinking of?
  • Just heard that Prisons Minister is James Timpson (now Lord, presumably) who is the head of the Prison Reform Trust.

    Similarly, Patrick Vallance is Science Minister.

    Two excellent choices.

    Even as a strong Labour supporter I have been slightly underwhelmed in the campaign. However, these kinds of decisions are really promising. Radical and brave and with a clear intent to get things done.

    AFZ
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    stetson wrote: »

    (Just to clarify - I deliberately used the word English as I see this as a particularly English problem and far less of a problem in the other parts of the UK.)

    Hard disagree - certain parties in Scotland provide cover for the ‘blood and soilers’ in probably numbers proportionate to the population.

    Which parties are you thinking of?

    Seconding this question (as an immigrant to Scotland).
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Nice !
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
    Re Wes Streeting, sorry but no! Will pop a line in Epiphanies somewhere
  • LouiseLouise Epiphanies Host
  • As polling guru Sir John Curtice said, this is the election the Tories lost, rather than Labour won.

    Yes indeed. As things stand, Labour's share of the vote was almost unchanged from 2019: the increase in vote share that the polls were predicting more or less didn't happen. The Conservatives got the thorough shellacking everyone was expecting. The Lib Dems multiplied their presence in the Commons by 7, for basically no change in vote, and Farage's gang of hate attracted altogether too much support.

    The Greens did well, with a fourfold increase in both seats and vote share. We'll see whether they can maintain this increase in (hopefully) a more normal election in a few years.
  • Louise wrote: »
    Re Wes Streeting, sorry but no!

    I agree, not just because of what I suspect is the same issue, but the manner in which he went about laying out and then changing his position.

    The late Dawn Foster had his number.
  • My wife - a LibDem member - insisted we toast their success in champagne.

    We just have.
  • FirenzeFirenze Shipmate, Host Emeritus
    I see Our Man is now Scottish Secretary, as he deserves to be, having held the pass when Labour support in Scotland collapsed. He is a diligent local MP and should bring the same attention to Scottish concerns at a UK level.
  • agingjbagingjb Shipmate
    The Lib Dems secured 11% of the seats on 12% of the votes. Still slightly underrepresented, but closest of any party to proportionality.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    Given the Attorney General’s post has not been given to Emma Thornberry. I am wondering if she will get Thangnam Debbinaire’s brief or the paymaster general post.
  • Meanwhile, some common-sense talk from the LibDems:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/lib-dems-to-push-for-cross-party-talks-on-tackling-social-care

    Early days yet, but more of this sort of thing, please - with appropriate action, of course.

    I'd agree with this, of course.

    I hope there can be cross-party initiatives. I hope Starmer's right and we get less loud and posturing politics all round.

    It would be nice to think so.
  • And on that note, this appointment seems somewhat positive:

    https://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1809295371727687742
  • With the counts completed, in all but one seat, we now know that the Conservatives have been reduced to:

    121 seats

    In my just-for-fun sweepstake, 8 of us got that right by predicting it would be in the range 100-124 seats. I say "us" as I was one of them. *smugface*

    However, special credit goes to those who got their point prediction closest. No-one was spot on but
    @North East Quine went for 123 and
    @Rogue Organist who went for 119
    were very close.

    Very impressive.

    AFZ
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    It seems that Roderick Spode is alive and well and living in Essex. (See The Code of the Woosters.)
  • I think David Lammy at the FO is a mistake. Now that a Trump victory is all but guaranteed in November, his previous comments are going to be a big problem. With any other POTUS they might make for a little awkwardness, but Trump???

    Lisa Nandy as Culture Secretary - WHY? She has shown no interests in any of the arts. I realise that the sad loss of Thangam Debbonaire left KS with a problem but this choice is bizarre.
  • Eirenist wrote: »
    It seems that Roderick Spode is alive and well and living in Essex. (See The Code of the Woosters.)

    :lol:

  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    I think David Lammy at the FO is a mistake. Now that a Trump victory is all but guaranteed in November, his previous comments are going to be a big problem. With any other POTUS they might make for a little awkwardness, but Trump???

    Lisa Nandy as Culture Secretary - WHY? She has shown no interests in any of the arts. I realise that the sad loss of Thangam Debbonaire left KS with a problem but this choice is bizarre.

    Eh, Trump isn't known for remembering past slights if you suck up to him in the present. Look at past comments from most Republican senators.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    I think David Lammy at the FO is a mistake. Now that a Trump victory is all but guaranteed in November, his previous comments are going to be a big problem. With any other POTUS they might make for a little awkwardness, but Trump???

    Lisa Nandy as Culture Secretary - WHY? She has shown no interests in any of the arts. I realise that the sad loss of Thangam Debbonaire left KS with a problem but this choice is bizarre.

    They could reshuffle if Trump wins.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    Should US politics dictate the composition of the UK government?
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    Eirenist wrote: »
    Should US politics dictate the composition of the UK government?

    As far as foreign secretary is concerned - there's a case.
  • If the Oxford Mail, bastion of sloppy cut & paste "journalism" is to be believed, the last time Oxfordshire had no Tory MPs was 1777!
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    agingjb wrote: »
    The Lib Dems secured 11% of the seats on 12% of the votes. Still slightly underrepresented, but closest of any party to proportionality.

    The reward of tactical voting.

  • Telford wrote: »
    agingjb wrote: »
    The Lib Dems secured 11% of the seats on 12% of the votes. Still slightly underrepresented, but closest of any party to proportionality.

    The reward of tactical voting.

    Yes, and people vote for any number of reasons, and that is one of them, it's not any more or any less legitimate than any other reason for voting.
  • An amusing aside for you all.

    A member of the Right Wing Commentariat on TwiX who pontificated most unsuccessfully during the campaign is now espousing a great theory on how Starmer will only serve one term as Prime Minister.

    A wise reply on the same platform pointed out that none of the last 4 Prime Ministers have managed even a whole term.

    If you're interested, here's the stats:*
    Sunak: 33.9% of a term
    Truss: 2.7% of a term**
    Johnson: 62.4% of a term
    May: 57.2% of a term


    *As a term is not a fixed entity in the UK constitution, I used a term defined as five years which is equal to 1826.2 days. Most Parliaments run for less than that but I was feeling generous.

    **I wonder if future Prime Minister will always have the landmark at 50 days that they've exceeded the term of Mrs Truss? Just a thought.

    AFZ
  • I wonder if future Prime Minister will always have the landmark at 50 days that they've exceeded the term of Mrs Truss? Just a thought.

    It has legs as a unit of measure.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    I wonder if future Prime Minister will always have the landmark at 50 days that they've exceeded the term of Mrs Truss? Just a thought.

    It has legs as a unit of measure.

    Lettuces don't have legs.
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    edited July 2024
    See, Sunak didn't do so badly - he survived for about 12 lettuces!

    It seemed longer.
  • EnochEnoch Shipmate
    Jane R wrote: »
    See, Sunak didn't do so badly - he survived for about 12 lettuces!

    It seemed longer.
    That sounds like an avoirdupois system of measurement. Looking at the figures and approximating, that works out conveniently as:-
    12 Lettuces = 1 Sunak.
    3 Sunaks = 1 term.

    That makes a Johnson conveniently 2 Sunaks. One can even measure weeks as quarter-lettuces.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Quick question: under the principle of one person, one vote, please explain to this American how Labour can earn 60% of the seats when, in fact, they earned just 30% of the vote?
  • The short answer from the other side of the equator is First-Past-the-Post, compounded by single member electorates and voluntary turnout.
    P.S. we in Australia also have our own distortions and you have another different set of distortions in the US.
This discussion has been closed.