Not a good time for the Conservative government in the UK

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  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    I thought Labour have always been like this. Wilson

    Wilson was much more radical than Starmer, as the historian David Edgerton pointed out recently.

  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    To be fair one of the people who pretended Tony Blair was less left-wing than he was was Tony Blair. That was an error of judgement, as it meant that even as his policies were working he wasn't shifting the Overton window with them, and the Coalition could just roll them up.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    edited May 2024
    Dafyd wrote: »
    To be fair one of the people who pretended Tony Blair was less left-wing than he was was Tony Blair.

    Less so socially and on foreign policy than economic policy.
  • BroJamesBroJames Purgatory Host
  • KarlLBKarlLB Shipmate
    I'm just thinking Natalie Elphicke? Elphicke? Natalie? That Natalie? WTAF? Who next? Cruella? Priti Patel? Kemi Badanoch?
  • EnochEnoch Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    Jane R wrote: »
    Maybe she's hoping they will hire her as a policy consultant, like the guy who jumped ship last week. All the fun of working in government and none of the hassle of being an MP.
    Or one of Boris Johnsons former wives (who admittedly was never a Conservative Party member, but had once been a Labour member ... so not really crossing the floor in the same way).
    ??!!!?? I don't think making someone either a former wife of Boris Johnson - or even less appealing a job prospect - a current one, is in the gift of any incoming government. ??!!!??

    That's a sort of wardship that was abolished in the seventeenth century.

    Besides, unless she isn't who I've assumed she is, she's already got the depressing experience of the sort of public exposure that being the former wife of a Conservative MP lays one open to. Wasn't her ex-husband 'I'm a naughty Tory'.

  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Marina Wheeler (married to Johnson from 1993 to 2018, when she was diagnosed with cancer) was appointed to advise the Labour Party on protecting women in the workplace from sexual harassment and discrimination last year.
  • Ms Elphicke is indeed the former spouse of Charlie *I'm A Naughty Tory!* Elphicke, and replaced him as MP for Dover & Deal in December 2019.
    KarlLB wrote: »
    I'm just thinking Natalie Elphicke? Elphicke? Natalie? That Natalie? WTAF? Who next? Cruella? Priti Patel? Kemi Badanoch?

    Yes, the mind boggles...

  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    From a PR perspective for Labour, much to gain, little to lose. What I think of her, is another matter entirely.

    Does it make sense to admit someone to the PLP who would be seen off if they made the same statements as a member?

    Possibly. But then Anderson was a former Labour member and office manager for Gloria De Piero.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    The chances are, of course, that she won't be a Labour MP for more than a few months...

    I wonder what her tory supporters in Dover think of her defection?
  • Dafyd wrote: »
    To be fair one of the people who pretended Tony Blair was less left-wing than he was was Tony Blair. That was an error of judgement, as it meant that even as his policies were working he wasn't shifting the Overton window with them, and the Coalition could just roll them up.

    Very good point.
    Well made.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    The chances are, of course, that she won't be a Labour MP for more than a few months...

    I wonder what her tory supporters in Dover think of her defection?

    I assume they are confused about why she has joined the Party she claimed cares more about channel migrants than the residents of Dover and Deal
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Dafyd wrote: »
    To be fair one of the people who pretended Tony Blair was less left-wing than he was was Tony Blair.

    Less so socially and on foreign policy than economic policy.

    Thanks for that. The gaslighting from his supporters was so extreme in recent years that I'd begun to doubt my own memories of just how awful many of the policies and rhetoric, particularly from home secretaries, had been.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    The chances are, of course, that she won't be a Labour MP for more than a few months...

    I wonder what her tory supporters in Dover think of her defection?

    I assume they are confused about why she has joined the Party she claimed cares more about channel migrants than the residents of Dover and Deal

    They're not the only ones confused - the majority of the Labour party are, too:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/08/keir-starmer-sparks-labour-anger-with-decision-to-admit-natalie-elphicke

    Perhaps Starmer prefers to have her inside the tent, so to speak, rather than going off and joining Deform...or the NeoCons, or the PopCorns, or (as invented by a Guardian columnist) the UtterCons...

    Either way, it's an odd thing to have happened. Poor old Wishi-Washi must be wondering who's going to be next to abandon him to his fate.
  • The chances are, of course, that she won't be a Labour MP for more than a few months...

    I wonder what her tory supporters in Dover think of her defection?

    I assume they are confused about why she has joined the Party she claimed cares more about channel migrants than the residents of Dover and Deal

    They're not the only ones confused - the majority of the Labour party are, too:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/08/keir-starmer-sparks-labour-anger-with-decision-to-admit-natalie-elphicke

    I can't help wondering if Starmer prefers to have her inside the tent, so to speak, rather than going off and joining Deform...

    Nah, I don't think he really cares in that sense. I doubt he particularly wanted her.

    The vast majority of the UK don't know who she is or what she's said and done before. All they here is "Tory MP defects to Labour." And that's what they'll remember come the election... Sunak's party fell apart... didn't a handful of MPs switch sides? etc.

    She is not standing again, so she's only around for a few months. It's a big tactical plus for Starmer with minimal downside risk.

    That's it, end of story, really.

    Another big body blow to Sunak.

    AFZ
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    The chances are, of course, that she won't be a Labour MP for more than a few months...

    I wonder what her tory supporters in Dover think of her defection?

    I assume they are confused about why she has joined the Party she claimed cares more about channel migrants than the residents of Dover and Deal

    They're not the only ones confused - the majority of the Labour party are, too:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/08/keir-starmer-sparks-labour-anger-with-decision-to-admit-natalie-elphicke

    I can't help wondering if Starmer prefers to have her inside the tent, so to speak, rather than going off and joining Deform...

    Nah, I don't think he really cares in that sense. I doubt he particularly wanted her.

    The vast majority of the UK don't know who she is or what she's said and done before. All they here is "Tory MP defects to Labour." And that's what they'll remember come the election... Sunak's party fell apart... didn't a handful of MPs switch sides? etc.

    She is not standing again, so she's only around for a few months. It's a big tactical plus for Starmer with minimal downside risk.

    That's it, end of story, really.

    Another big body blow to Sunak.

    AFZ

    Well, well - maybe you're right. Even so, there seems to be some fallout occurring within the Labour party.

    A body-blow to Wishi-Washi, indeed. General Election NOW!!
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    BTW, here's a long piece about Elphicke from Kent Online:

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/shock-as-kent-tory-mp-defects-to-labour-306373/

    As expected, the local tories are Unhappy Bunnies, and there appears to be a feeling that Dover & Deal will be fairly easily won by Labour next time around. Perhaps that explains Starmer's welcome to the egregious Elphicke?
  • What AFZ said. She ain't going to be round long enough to make any waves.

    But if I were a Labour MP I think my reaction would be one of puzzled bemusement or even anger.
  • What AFZ said. She ain't going to be round long enough to make any waves.

    But if I were a Labour MP I think my reaction would be one of puzzled bemusement or even anger.

    Reportedly a lot of anger in the PLP. But that's not (yet) from sources I particularly trust.
    Either way, it won't be a big problem. It will settle down quite quickly.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    Not least because it's a model of cartel politics that Starmer is entirely comfortable with.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    Sighthound wrote: »

    All that can be said for Labour is that they will be better than the Tories. In the same way that Mussolini was better than Hitler.
    Benito's reputation was built on trains running on time

  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Telford wrote: »
    Sighthound wrote: »

    All that can be said for Labour is that they will be better than the Tories. In the same way that Mussolini was better than Hitler.
    Benito's reputation was built on trains running on time

    Which, ironically, only accurately applied to a single train.
  • I'm just gonna leave this here:https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49301-voting-intention-con-18-lab-44-30-apr-1-may-2024

    In case you're wondering, the seat projection from this poll is:
    Conservative: 18
    Labour: 541
    LibDem: 49
    Reform: 0
    Green: 2
    SNP: 19
    PC: 3
    NI: 0

    I am on record as believing FPTP needs to go. I haven't changed my mind. I do not think this poll is representative - it is definitely an outlier.* I do not think one party having 83% of the seats is a particularly good thing - especially with only half the actual votes.

    However, this is really, really funny.

    Even Tory MPs in very safe seats will be panicked by this.

    AFZ

    *It should be noted that YouGov is generally more favourable to the Conservatives compared with other polling companies.
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    It’s more worrying that someone so far right leaning feels comfortable enough to join Labour.
    The Con boat is leaking left and right. The captain doesn’t seem to care. The Labour boat is only leaking from the left but equally the captain is not bothered. The life boats of Reform UK and the Green Party are filling up fast.
  • Yes, that poll is amusing. I guess the assumption is that they will narrow, but you get the impression that every desperate trick by Sunak, makes it worse.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    I also note the text to go with it in relation to the polling for Labour - as the same as the lowest Labour had under Corbyn.
  • betjemaniacbetjemaniac Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    Hugal wrote: »
    It’s more worrying that someone so far right leaning feels comfortable enough to join Labour.
    The Con boat is leaking left and right. The captain doesn’t seem to care. The Labour boat is only leaking from the left but equally the captain is not bothered. The life boats of Reform UK and the Green Party are filling up fast.

    fairly persuasive analysis in the 'i' this morning that the locals boosted the Greens more than they would in a GE so when it comes down to it the Tories will leak to the right but the Labour leak will be diminished.

    However, re @alienfromzog 's post about FPTP, that's barking mad if it's correct - where did the seat projection come from? Because from your seat projections I make that Labour with 541 seats on 44% of the vote, the Tories with 18 seats on 18% of the vote, and the Liberals with 49 seats on 10% of the vote.

    That's beyond funny, it's democratically dangerous on at least 2 levels.
  • Jane RJane R Shipmate
    ...and this is why FPTP needs to go...
  • la vie en rougela vie en rouge Purgatory Host, Circus Host
    I think the high number of Lib Dem seats probably represents a lot of tactical anyone-but-the-Tories voting, ie the votes are not distributed equally around the country.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    I think the high number of Lib Dem seats probably represents a lot of tactical anyone-but-the-Tories voting, ie the votes are not distributed equally around the country.

    Also there's still an element of rural/urban divide in Labour support, and in some of those areas the Lib Dems are the traditional party of opposition.
  • Hugal wrote: »
    It’s more worrying that someone so far right leaning feels comfortable enough to join Labour.
    The Con boat is leaking left and right. The captain doesn’t seem to care. The Labour boat is only leaking from the left but equally the captain is not bothered. The life boats of Reform UK and the Green Party are filling up fast.

    fairly persuasive analysis in the 'i' this morning that the locals boosted the Greens more than they would in a GE so when it comes down to it the Tories will leak to the right but the Labour leak will be diminished.

    However, re @alienfromzog 's post about FPTP, that's barking mad if it's correct - where did the seat projection come from? Because from your seat projections I make that Labour with 541 seats on 44% of the vote, the Tories with 18 seats on 18% of the vote, and the Liberals with 49 seats on 10% of the vote.

    That's beyond funny, it's democratically dangerous on at least 2 levels.

    Sorry, slight confusion, my fault. These are the latest YouGov figures: https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1788505965962145867?t=lAa4KrrCk-tnnviE8d1_SA&s=19

    Seat projections from electoral calculus who (I believe) use a uniform swing model.

    But yeah, FPTP is deeply flawed.
  • If these figures are correct, election night should be a corker, watching all those Tory figures tumble. Pork pies and gottles of geer, ahoy!
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    If these figures are correct, election night should be a corker, watching all those Tory figures tumble. Pork pies and gottles of geer, ahoy!

    Plus the added benefit of the next few weeks of laughter as Starmer has to deal with the pack of poorly-vetted weirdos selected for safe tory seats who are now MPs. They'll have been filtered for possible socialist tendencies but have missed the transphobes, anti-ziganists, conspiracist loons. I reckon of Labour get over 500 seats they'll be forced to withdraw the whip from a dozen or so new MPs within the first 3 months.
  • A friend of mine who was an oddball was elected in 1997 for Labour, as nobody thought he would be. He seemed to enjoy it for 8 years.
  • Starmer might redeem himself slightly by restoring the whip to Diane Abbott, who is surely worth more than a score of second-hand Elphickes...
    If these figures are correct, election night should be a corker, watching all those Tory figures tumble. Pork pies and gottles of geer, ahoy!

    Even if the actual result isn't quite as dire as that forecast predicts, it should indeed be a Fun Night (not for the tories, though, but it'll be their own fault...)
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Better than 2019 where the count I was at was a combination of shocked disbelief and despair at the idiocy of the country.
  • Much the same feeling that many of us had when hearing the result of that bloody Brexit referendum...
    :rage: :cry: :cold_sweat:
  • Meanwhile, is this another example of tory performative cruelty, and the banality of evil?

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/may/09/cyclist-mohammad-ganjkhanlou-asylum-bibby-stockholm
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    Yes, it is. He's from Iran, a nation that is generally perceived as some form of evil empire ... with some justification (especially for anyone in the country who happens to be gay or a woman or just likes the idea of liberty). What's wrong with simply saying anyone from Iran satisfies the requirements to be granted asylum? His identity must surely be very easy to verify, even if he didn't have all his documents, and potentially checking someone is from where they claim to be would be the only hindrance to such a policy.
  • chrisstileschrisstiles Hell Host
    Starmer might redeem himself slightly by restoring the whip to Diane Abbott, who is surely worth more than a score of second-hand Elphickes...

    Well, there was a period of a few years where who was associating with whom and what they said was supposed to be very important; but now this is just a big tactical plus.
  • Bishops FingerBishops Finger Shipmate
    edited May 2024
    Yes, it is. He's from Iran, a nation that is generally perceived as some form of evil empire ... with some justification (especially for anyone in the country who happens to be gay or a woman or just likes the idea of liberty). What's wrong with simply saying anyone from Iran satisfies the requirements to be granted asylum? His identity must surely be very easy to verify, even if he didn't have all his documents, and potentially checking someone is from where they claim to be would be the only hindrance to such a policy.

    My bad. I forgot the poor chap was from the Evil Empire, and therefore fit only to be condemned to penal servitude on a prison ship.

    The nurse who looked after me in Intensive Care after my brain surgery in 2016 was Iranian (IIRC). Maybe I was still under the influence of the anaesthetic, but she was the Most Beautiful Ministering Angel Of The Lord I've ever seen.
    Starmer might redeem himself slightly by restoring the whip to Diane Abbott, who is surely worth more than a score of second-hand Elphickes...

    Well, there was a period of a few years where who was associating with whom and what they said was supposed to be very important; but now this is just a big tactical plus.

    Yes, times have moved on...
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Telford wrote: »
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative

    I think it probably reflects how people currently feel. I'm sceptical that people will feel the same after a 6 week campaign.
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    A single poll should always be taken with a massive pinch of salt. If different polls, with data collected by different organisations in different ways, all show the same trends then those are much more meaningful. But, even then they tend to differ significantly from the only poll that counts - the actual election. This poll is consistent with other polls and trends in relation to national voting intentions, the national % planning to vote for different parties. The extrapolation from that to a prediction of number of MPs for each party is an extreme outlier, and that probably reflects how that's extrapolated from the poll data rather than the poll itself.
  • Telford wrote: »
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative

    I think it probably reflects how people currently feel. I'm sceptical that people will feel the same after a 6 week campaign.

    Yes, although the way the tories are going on, a 6-week campaign will do them no favours at all. By the end of it, they may have lost their majority in Wastemonster, given the rate of attrition...

    (I know - unlikely, but Old Men like me dream dreams...)
  • HugalHugal Shipmate
    Telford wrote: »
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative

    I think it probably reflects how people currently feel. I'm sceptical that people will feel the same after a 6 week campaign.
    If Rishi is appearing on the debates or taking any lead in the campaign then you might as well give the keys to No 10 to Starmer now. He is awful at campaigning and cannot hold his own in debates. He had no real political acumen. If they have any idea at all the campaign organisers will only allow him minimal input.
  • Hugal wrote: »
    Telford wrote: »
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative

    I think it probably reflects how people currently feel. I'm sceptical that people will feel the same after a 6 week campaign.
    If Rishi is appearing on the debates or taking any lead in the campaign then you might as well give the keys to No 10 to Starmer now. He is awful at campaigning and cannot hold his own in debates. He had no real political acumen. If they have any idea at all the campaign organisers will only allow him minimal input.

    True. It's hard to see just who the tories could field...only the diehard right-wing fruitloops will believe anything some of them may say.

    Perhaps Penny Mightier Than The Sword, or Tom Tug, might just be able to give the tories a better press, though I suspect that it's all too late now. Penny or Tom might make a suitable leader for the couple of dozen or so tory MPs left, assuming they keep their own seats.

    The tories missed the Big Red Credibility Bus a while back, I think.
  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    They got on the bus marked £350 million a week for the NHS.
  • ArethosemyfeetArethosemyfeet Shipmate, Heaven Host
    Hugal wrote: »
    Telford wrote: »
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative

    I think it probably reflects how people currently feel. I'm sceptical that people will feel the same after a 6 week campaign.
    If Rishi is appearing on the debates or taking any lead in the campaign then you might as well give the keys to No 10 to Starmer now. He is awful at campaigning and cannot hold his own in debates. He had no real political acumen. If they have any idea at all the campaign organisers will only allow him minimal input.

    I'm not suggesting he'll convince more people to vote tory, just that a lot of people are going to be deeply unenthused by Starmer, and he will inevitably be subject to some dirty tricks that so far he's largely avoided, so I'm expecting very low turnout. Plus a fair number of people who say they won't vote tory will vote for a "good local MP" who happens to be a tory.
  • Alan29Alan29 Shipmate
    Hugal wrote: »
    Telford wrote: »
    I do not believe this poll for one minute. I do suspect that a lot of people will be voting Labour and LibDem just because they are currently anti Conservative

    I think it probably reflects how people currently feel. I'm sceptical that people will feel the same after a 6 week campaign.
    If Rishi is appearing on the debates or taking any lead in the campaign then you might as well give the keys to No 10 to Starmer now. He is awful at campaigning and cannot hold his own in debates. He had no real political acumen. If they have any idea at all the campaign organisers will only allow him minimal input.

    I'm not suggesting he'll convince more people to vote tory, just that a lot of people are going to be deeply unenthused by Starmer, and he will inevitably be subject to some dirty tricks that so far he's largely avoided, so I'm expecting very low turnout. Plus a fair number of people who say they won't vote tory will vote for a "good local MP" who happens to be a tory.

    Plus a fair number of people who say they won't vote tory will vote for a "good local MP" who happens to be a tory.
    Yes that happens in all parties. I have done that myself - voted for my Labour MP who I admired when I didnt like what was going on in the broader party.
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