Posted at 8:538:53
Wagner group heading for Moscow - UK Ministry of Defence
In the last few minutes we have had an intelligence update from the UK's Ministry of Defence.
It says some Wagner units "are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast (quarter of the way), almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow".
Vorenezh lies halfway between the capital Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, the Russian city that the Wagner mercenary group claims it now controls. The UK MoD says Wagner has "almost certainly" occupied key sites in Rostov-on-Don.
The update describes this rebellion as "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times".
It describes the feud as escalating into an "outright military confrontation", and says Wager Group forces "crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations".
It also says some Russian troops "have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner".
"Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out."
My preferred outcome would be for this attempted coup to be enough to unseat Putin, the Wagner leadership get taken out in the process and whomever comes out on top in the Kremlin to suddenly discover that the Ukraine war was an evil trick pulled on them by Putin, Wagner and some elements of the Russian military leadership - and therefore on that basis (without loss of face) end the war withdrawing from Ukraine. (Even if said person was in fact well aware of the realities at the time.)
I think the sticking point for that scenario would be Crimea.
Wagner - Prigozhin - has been saying that for some time, so they can't be implicated. His guys will fight to the death to protect him, and themselves. And if that's them taking out the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, hours ago, yesterday even, rather than Russian army reinforcements, as well as British Intelligence saying they're in Voronezh Oblast, there will be blood. There already is. Like Ukraine, worse, Prigozhin doesn't have air power. The Russian air force have already hit him this morning in Voronezh.
They have previous: this is the third coup attempt since '91. Will the Russian army follow orders like the air force? The divisions coming from Moscow will.
It’s now being reported Wagner have taken the military facilities in the city of Voronezh. I do wonder if they have backing from any other parts of the state, on the quiet. That means they are half way to Moscow in a day.
They're undet attack from helicopter gunships. The poor fool doesn't even have Stinger equivalents. Should be over by tea time like the previous 2 coup attempts.
They're undet attack from helicopter gunships. The poor fool doesn't even have Stinger equivalents. Should be over by tea time like the previous 2 coup attempts.
They're undet attack from helicopter gunships. The poor fool doesn't even have Stinger equivalents. Should be over by tea time like the previous 2 coup attempts.
But he might have access to them in the military base at Rostov that he has captured.
I have been on vacation so I have not posted for a while. Still on vacation, but just to point out just a few days ago I suggested Wagner might be starting a mutiny. Looks like they have seized Rostov.
They're undet attack from helicopter gunships. The poor fool doesn't even have Stinger equivalents. Should be over by tea time like the previous 2 coup attempts.
But he might have access to them in the military base at Rostov that he has captured.
What base? Apart from an HQ? And then why aren't they up with the convoy around Voronezh? Because that's moving too fast? And he has no helicopters to catch up. I doubt the Russians keep any stocks behind the front lines. The Russians took out the fuel in Voronezh. Which Prigozhin's 25,000 men's transport need.
We're seeing civil war in Russia, says Ukraine defence adviser
Yuriy Sak
BBC Copyright: BBC
"We are little-by-little running out of popcorn,” jokes Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister.
Sak has, like the rest of the world, been watching events unfold in Russia at an “unprecedented speed”.
Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.
“Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."
Sak believes events in Russia could be the start of something extremely significant. He says the Kremlin has been lying “for such a long time… about the losses of the Russian army” and that sooner or later the situation would “implode and lead to a civil war”.
“What we're seeing now in Russia is a civil war,” adds Sak.
This is why it is dangerous for autocratic states to have halfway competent military officers, or at least to have military officers who believe they're more competent than the leadership.
The BBC says there is a fair amount of support for Prigozhin in the general population, as a public figure.
I think, either he thought the strike on Wagner forces was an assassination attempt and therefore he has nothing to lose and/or he has some kind of agreement with other elements of the state that leaves him to believe this will work.
Otherwise, it’s difficult to see how he’d believe it would be effective.
This is why it is dangerous for autocratic states to have halfway competent military officers, or at least to have military officers who believe they're more competent than the leadership.
As I mentioned a while back the whole point of having organizations like Wagner outside of the Ministry of Defense's direct control is to fragment military capacities so no one person can turn the whole military against the regime. Prigozhin seems to have decided either that the rest of Russia's armed forces can't/won't stop him or that his position is precarious enough that this gamble is his least bad option.
My non-expert understanding is that Wagner is logistically fairly dependent on the larger Russian military supply chain. That means Prigozhin has to move quickly before his troops starve or run out of bullets. This may also explain the importance of capturing Rostov and other military facilities.
Various sources are reporting about 25000 in Wagner but unclear how many crossed into Russia.
BBC / MOD has verified that Wagner troops are on the M4 and apparently heading to Moscow, moving through Lipetsk.
Times radio pundits on YouTube are noting that’s there is video evidence Wagner have shot down at least two Russian army helicopters - and that the amount of people and equipment being moved this fast suggests planning.
The key point they note, is whether Russian troops are prepared to fight Wagner. It’s looks as if Rostov was taken without much resistance.
I thought this is either a suicide mission, which seems unlikely, or Wagner have some forward planning in mind. In 1917, which Putin mentioned, the gamble was that some regiments would desert or remain neutral, which happened. But the army then was losing heavily in WW1, and the Tsar widely unpopular.
It’s just being reported on the BBC that the mayor of Moscow has told residents to stay indoors and not go to work on Monday - which suggests they think Wagner troops will reach the capital.
Moscow is now warning the worst could happen if Prigozhin gains access to Russian nuclear stockpiles. I would grant this would open up a whole new can of worms. I think Prigozhin would be advised to indicate what he would want to do with the nukes should he ultimately seize power.
This is why it is dangerous for autocratic states to have halfway competent military officers, or at least to have military officers who believe they're more competent than the leadership.
As I mentioned a while back the whole point of having organizations like Wagner outside of the Ministry of Defense's direct control is to fragment military capacities so no one person can turn the whole military against the regime. Prigozhin seems to have decided either that the rest of Russia's armed forces can't/won't stop him or that his position is precarious enough that this gamble is his least bad option.
My non-expert understanding is that Wagner is logistically fairly dependent on the larger Russian military supply chain. That means Prigozhin has to move quickly before his troops starve or run out of bullets. This may also explain the importance of capturing Rostov and other military facilities.
This.
And where's Putin?
If Moscow falls, where does he go?! With the Russian 'football'? And that's a lot of airspace to get to Beijing.
The Kremlin have officially denied he has left Moscow by plane - after aircraft trackers picked up his plane leaving Moscow - so I am assuming he has left Moscow.
As has been pointed out on the internet it is in the interests of neither the Wagner group nor Putin to give the other accurate information on what is going on, nor do either have a history of being scrupulous about releasing misinformation.
Belarus & Wagner have now announced they’ve held talks and Wagner has agreed to stop the moment of its troops toward Moscow in exchange for security guarantees.
This seems unlikely to be a permenant fix to me. Could Putin really leave a functioning force on the ground that fired on Russian troops and took control of Russian cities ?
Speaking of Belarus, Ukrainska Pravda (via Yahoo News) is reporting that five empty II-76 recently landed at Machulishchy airfield (just outside Minsk). The II-76 is described in the article as a "military transport aircraft", which seems like the kind of thing you'd use if you needed to move some troops and equipment very quickly from the front lines to the capital.
They're undet attack from helicopter gunships. The poor fool doesn't even have Stinger equivalents. Should be over by tea time like the previous 2 coup attempts.
No, not over by tea time. The phrase you're looking for is "over by Christmas".
It's been a remarkable half hour with the sudden news that Wagner's soldiers will stop marching to Moscow.
Here's the full statement from the Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhni:
"They wanted to disband the Wagner military company. We embarked on a march of justice on 23 June.
In 24 hours, we got to within 200 km of Moscow. In this time we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood.
Now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Understanding responsibility [for the chance] that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned."
I don’t see Putin letting this lie for any length of time.
I thought this is either a suicide mission, which seems unlikely, or Wagner have some forward planning in mind. In 1917, which Putin mentioned, the gamble was that some regiments would desert or remain neutral, which happened. But the army then was losing heavily in WW1, and the Tsar widely unpopular.
Even more relevant in 1917 is that the army were called on to suppress protests by civilians, with many in the crowds women very much like the mothers of the soldiers who were demanding bread. Most of the soldiers simply refused to fire on women like their own mothers, and when other soldiers were brought in to restore order in the ranks of the first lot of soldiers who mutinied they simply shot their officers and joined the protests.
Wagner aren't disobeying orders to shoot at Russian civilians, so the sympathetic dynamic of 1917 which saw mass mutiny by any and all troops sent to suppress the mutiny, and hence the mutiny snowballing, isn't present. However, reports (accuracy unknown) that other Russian troops are simply standing aside suggests a reluctance among the Russian military to fight other Russians ... but, Wagner need other Russians joining them, standing aside doesn't seem enough as sooner or later they'll meet Putin loyalists and there will be fighting, unless there's some lasting agreement reached.
Comments
My God! So they have! Freddy Forsythe couldn't have written better!
Posted at 8:538:53
Wagner group heading for Moscow - UK Ministry of Defence
In the last few minutes we have had an intelligence update from the UK's Ministry of Defence.
It says some Wagner units "are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast (quarter of the way), almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow".
Vorenezh lies halfway between the capital Moscow and Rostov-on-Don, the Russian city that the Wagner mercenary group claims it now controls. The UK MoD says Wagner has "almost certainly" occupied key sites in Rostov-on-Don.
The update describes this rebellion as "the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times".
It describes the feud as escalating into an "outright military confrontation", and says Wager Group forces "crossed from occupied Ukraine into Russia in at least two locations".
It also says some Russian troops "have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner".
"Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out."
I think the sticking point for that scenario would be Crimea.
They have previous: this is the third coup attempt since '91. Will the Russian army follow orders like the air force? The divisions coming from Moscow will.
Tea time on which day ?
But he might have access to them in the military base at Rostov that he has captured.
What base? Apart from an HQ? And then why aren't they up with the convoy around Voronezh? Because that's moving too fast? And he has no helicopters to catch up. I doubt the Russians keep any stocks behind the front lines. The Russians took out the fuel in Voronezh. Which Prigozhin's 25,000 men's transport need.
Up the M4. Looks like he's in Swindon already.
I think, either he thought the strike on Wagner forces was an assassination attempt and therefore he has nothing to lose and/or he has some kind of agreement with other elements of the state that leaves him to believe this will work.
Otherwise, it’s difficult to see how he’d believe it would be effective.
Nice!
Whether it can topple Putin remains to be seen, of course.
He's likely to lash out with nerve agents and other nasties if he's cornered.
As I mentioned a while back the whole point of having organizations like Wagner outside of the Ministry of Defense's direct control is to fragment military capacities so no one person can turn the whole military against the regime. Prigozhin seems to have decided either that the rest of Russia's armed forces can't/won't stop him or that his position is precarious enough that this gamble is his least bad option.
My non-expert understanding is that Wagner is logistically fairly dependent on the larger Russian military supply chain. That means Prigozhin has to move quickly before his troops starve or run out of bullets. This may also explain the importance of capturing Rostov and other military facilities.
BBC / MOD has verified that Wagner troops are on the M4 and apparently heading to Moscow, moving through Lipetsk.
Times radio pundits on YouTube are noting that’s there is video evidence Wagner have shot down at least two Russian army helicopters - and that the amount of people and equipment being moved this fast suggests planning.
The key point they note, is whether Russian troops are prepared to fight Wagner. It’s looks as if Rostov was taken without much resistance.
Aye, which I poo-pooed, you got the invasion right too @Gramps49.
This.
And where's Putin?
If Moscow falls, where does he go?! With the Russian 'football'? And that's a lot of airspace to get to Beijing.
Yes, and in a quick-changing chaotic situation like this expect the early reports to be mistaken in at least one detail.
I expect he's heading for one of his secret hideaways, reached by specially-built roads and railways which do not officially exist.
He who sows the wind .....
I expect the Belarussian opposition folks are watching events very closely.
This seems unlikely to be a permenant fix to me. Could Putin really leave a functioning force on the ground that fired on Russian troops and took control of Russian cities ?
I don’t see Putin letting this lie for any length of time.
Wagner aren't disobeying orders to shoot at Russian civilians, so the sympathetic dynamic of 1917 which saw mass mutiny by any and all troops sent to suppress the mutiny, and hence the mutiny snowballing, isn't present. However, reports (accuracy unknown) that other Russian troops are simply standing aside suggests a reluctance among the Russian military to fight other Russians ... but, Wagner need other Russians joining them, standing aside doesn't seem enough as sooner or later they'll meet Putin loyalists and there will be fighting, unless there's some lasting agreement reached.