Ukrainian Counter offensive--will they be able to take Crimea?

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  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Has Wagner now seized a second military HQ?
  • Can't see anything about that - on the contrary, Wagner troops are reported as packing up, and leaving Rostov.

    Quite what Yevgeny Prigozhin has achieved today is not yet clear, although I see that the Ukrainians have taken advantage of the situation to regain some territory. The land may be ravaged, and buildings destroyed, but at least they're Ukrainian land and buildings...
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Okay. But Prigozhin has done this before, claiming he is turning around his troops. Do you really think the Russian Defence Ministry will let this pass? As someone on our side of the pond would say, this is not over until it is over.
  • Well, yes - I did wonder what Prigozhin has in mind. I expect he has a Cunning Plan of some sort...
  • ETA:

    The Guardian reports that Prigozhin is on his way to Belarus, though it's not clear how many (if any) of his troops are going with him.
  • I would suggest he avoid meeting in rooms above the second floor.
  • Meanwhile, partisans in Belarus are said to be plotting a coup against Lukashenko...

    The leader of the opposition - Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, president in exile, as it were - has some comments on today's events:

    https://tsikhanouskaya.org/ru/

    (You may need to click on the Translate to English option!)
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited June 2023
    You mean expel the Russians?
  • The Sunday papers in UK all describe Putin as humiliated. Possibly, but it doesn't tell us his next move. He might feel vengeful, or cautious. Possibly, they are indulging in wish fulfilment.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    The Sunday papers in UK all describe Putin as humiliated. Possibly, but it doesn't tell us his next move. He might feel vengeful, or cautious. Possibly, they are indulging in wish fulfilment.

    Well, apart from it ending the way he prefered, I can't imagine he's particularly proud that it happened in the first place. Coulda been a lot worse, though, and, as you say, doesn't neccessarily mean he'll change his overall strategy.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Why would he? How could he? His narrative is safe.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    edited June 2023
    His plane left Moscow and then disappeared off radar, I will be more confident about what may or may not be happening when he is seen in public again.
  • A strange day, all round. I can't help thinking that Prigozhin has a Plan, which may become evident in the next few days, though I have no idea what that Plan might be...
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    You mean expel the Russians?

    If you're referring to my remark about partisans in Belarus (I can't find the link right now), I think the implication was that they wanted to throw down the dictator Lukashenko (and who doesn't, apart from Putin?), to allow Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her government-in-exile to take over.

    A free and democratic Belarus would, I daresay, sever as many ties with Russia as possible, if not immediately. I doubt if, in that case, Putin would try invading Belarus, having his hands full with Ukraine.
  • Reports that Pregozhin got a warm welcome in Rostov, and upon leaving. Don't ask me what that means, maybe a less than rapturous feeling about Putin.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Lot of speculating on my part why Pregozhin turned around. I have seen a video where a Russian attack helicopter took out a strategic fuel dump to deny him the fuel he would have needed to attack Moscow.

    On the other hand, I am thinking that the support he thought he would gain on his march to Moscow did not materialize. While it seemed no one was willing to stand in his way, no one seemed to want to follow him into Moscow. He probably concluded it woud have been suicide to go though the Moscow city gates. He was less than three hours from entering it when he turned around.

    On the other hand, the attack shows just how vulnerable Putin is. If an attacking force can get within three hours of Moscow, what's to say the next attacking force will not accomplish it? I do not think it will be Ukraine, but it could just be another mercenary group or even some units from the Russian Army. I would not even be surprised if Wagner does it again.

    Yesterday was bizarre.

    In the meantime,
    Ukraine’s military said on Saturday that its forces had made advances near Bakhmut, on the eastern front, and further south. The deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar, said an offensive was launched near a group of villages ringing Bakhmut, which Wagner forces took control of in May after months of fighting. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the southern front, said Ukrainian forces had liberated an area near Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

    From The Guardian.
  • Putin has certainly come off worst, at least in PR terms, although in his head he no doubt believes he has scored some kind of victory.
  • Quite striking that nobody appeared to attempt to stop the Wagner group. There are lots of possible reasons, it was all a fake, the Russian army half sympathised, stupidity, etc. I guess there will be repercussions, and leaks.
  • agingjbagingjb Shipmate
    Could it be the case that three ruthless men have come to an agreement that will enable them to continue in their cruelties?

    Will they go on attacking schools, hospitals, and refugees? And will the rulers of most of the world's population continue to approve their actions?
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    agingjb wrote: »
    Could it be the case that three ruthless men have come to an agreement that will enable them to continue in their cruelties?

    Will they go on attacking schools, hospitals, and refugees? And will the rulers of most of the world's population continue to approve their actions?

    Prigozhin's a man of honour speaking truth to power compared with the other two. Putin and ?
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    I'm presuming the third is Lukashenko.

    I incline to think that if Putin had thought it possible he would simply have terminated Prigozhin immediately and with extreme prejudice. The fact that he hasn't (just yet) indicates that he is not quite as secure as he would like. But perhaps it's just that it's more his MO to arrange an "accident" for Prigozhin sometime in the next few weeks.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited June 2023
    I honestly don't think any hatm will come to Prigozhin, at least not from Putin's direction. Even if it were made to look like an accident, it would be a very high-profile demise, and Putin would be the automatic(and probably only) suspect. He probably wouldn't suffer any legal penalty, but it would still be a pretty bad look.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    stetson wrote: »
    I honestly don't think any hatm will come to Prigozhin, at least not from Putin's direction. Even if it were made to look like an accident, it would be a very high-profile demise, and Putin would be the automatic(and probably only) suspect. He probably wouldn't suffer any legal penalty, but it would still be a pretty bad look.

    He's too soft.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    stetson wrote: »
    I honestly don't think any hatm will come to Prigozhin, at least not from Putin's direction. Even if it were made to look like an accident, it would be a very high-profile demise, and Putin would be the automatic(and probably only) suspect. He probably wouldn't suffer any legal penalty, but it would still be a pretty bad look.

    That really didn’t put them off a nerve agent attack in the UK.
  • DafydDafyd Hell Host
    stetson wrote: »
    Even if it were made to look like an accident, it would be a very high-profile demise, and Putin would be the automatic(and probably only) suspect.
    I should think that would be the point though. An insecure dictator wants everyone to know that they kill their political opponents even if they deny it in public for form's sake.
  • agingjbagingjb Shipmate
    I am prepared to admit that, while not wishing the deaths of Prigozhin (or Putin). I would be less outraged by them than I was by the attacks on Salisbury.
  • The Times this morning seemed to be claiming that the UK government is preparing for imminent Russian government implosion only for a cursory glance behind the headlines revealed a range of views including those that accord with the line I'm tending to take - that this will be a long haul.

    Prigozhin is hardly any more attractive than Putin.

    Putin will want to save face.

    Yes, he's weakened by this but not holed beneath the water-line. Ok, anything can happen and can happen quickly in the Byzantine and volatile situation we see in Eastern Europe but I must admit I see this as more of a dent than a body blow.

    Much will depend on whether Ukraine can make territorial gains and breach what appear to be formidable Russian defences.

    They appear to be acknowledging that it's hard going.

    I can't see how it can be otherwise. Russian military tactics have hardly been impressive so far but they do appear to be learning from their mistakes.

    Lots of questions remain.

    Did Prigozhin seriously expect to take Moscow? My guess would be he'd have been stopped somewhere on the M4. Bonnie Prince Charlie's aides advised him to continue his advance on London when he reached Derby in 1745. Most historians believe he wouldn't have succeeded in taking the capital, even though the King was packing his bags.

    The Duke of Monmouth's only chance in 1685 was a desperate night attack on the encroaching royal army outside Bridgewater. That didn't work out well.

    Ok, the Wagner Group seemed to have more popular support than these admittedly less analogous historical rebels but unless there was a coup by Putin's closest aides and bodyguards, I think he's still very much in charge.
  • DoublethinkDoublethink Admin, 8th Day Host
    I think Prigozhin Has shot his bolt, others may take advantage of the undermining of Putin but I don’t think Prigozhin will end up as president.
  • Prigozhin is a mercenary who provides paid for services. Imo, he was providing a service. Whoever it was for must have been quite high up for him to have got so far.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    There is no one, and no faction, in Russia that could possibly challenge or undermine Putin. There is no Brezhnev to his Khrushchev. The troika with Shoigu and Gerasimov as the base of a narrow triangle is in control. Russia has learned that she is better in defence than offence, and even so has 20% of Ukraine. That'll do her fine until Trump comes on side. I can see him pulling out of NATO on January 21st 2025.
  • Oh FFS - shroud-waving again...give it a rest, do.
    :rage:
  • Martin54 wrote: »
    There is no one, and no faction, in Russia that could possibly challenge or undermine Putin. There is no Brezhnev to his Khrushchev. The troika with Shoigu and Gerasimov as the base of a narrow triangle is in control. Russia has learned that she is better in defence than offence, and even so has 20% of Ukraine. That'll do her fine until Trump comes on side. I can see him pulling out of NATO on January 21st 2025.

    You cannot possibly know that. By the very nature of the thing, it cannot be known either in advance or from the outside.

    Putin is the prototypical ruthless dictator. Loyalty to him is built on the fear of what he will do to those who disobey him. Previous enemies have suffered fatal cases of gravitational disease or whatever. He is safe so long as the army and his bodyguards defend him. Now, thus far he has been successful at eliminating rivals but two things hold true: 1. Anyone who may defeat him will be hidden in plain sight (otherwise they would have been eliminated already). And 2. If someone either believes they have nothing left to lose or wants to roll the dice, then they will challenge him.

    Across world history, coups have succeeded and failed, bodyguards have killed their own charges. The motives of revenge or fear or hate or greed will inevitably be present in a large number. If anyone of these is a serious contender then they will only be in the position to act if Putin does not know they harbour such intentions.

    Ruthlessness and fear can be extremely effective. Those that take this line have to constantly up the ante. As a consequence there is always a tipping point. In retrospect, figuring it out might be obvious but not in advance. The tipping point may be different for different people and groups but the challengers only have to succeed once. Putin every time.

    That's not to say that I expect a challenge this week, this month or this year. Evidently, for the aforementioned reasons, I don't; but:
    1. Military failures make a challenge more likely
    2. It could happen at any time or not for a decade.
    3. The oligarchs are unhappy with the sanctions; they will switch loyaty when they judge it's safer to do so.

    AFZ
  • Yes, I think @alienfromzog is on the rouble with this.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Has anyone seen Putin in public in the last 24 hours?
  • There don't seem to have been any reports of Putin being seen since his plane left Moscow on Saturday - and that, of course, is no evidence at all that he was actually on board.

    No doubt there is a Bunker somewhere...served by roads and railways that don't officially exist, and are therefore not on any map.

    OTOH, Sergei Shoigu is to be seen on various videos, ostensibly in Ukraine, but with no indication as to where, or when.

    Make of all that what you will. Has there been a coup d'etat, with Putin toppled (and perhaps even dead) which will be announced to the world in due time?



  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited June 2023
    He's fine. I know that. With as many sigmas of confidence as you like. When was the last time an autocrat was brought down internally in any significant autocracy?
  • Even in this world of round the clock news coverage, Putin's public appearances seem very choreographed. He's hardly likely to pop up in the pickled cabbage or vodka aisle of the Moscow equivalent of Tesco any time soon.

    My guess would be he is busy kicking ass or in confab with his henchmen planning his next move.

    You are talking about a fella with a table longer than a cricket pitch for when he meets guests. He's hardly likely to turn up in the Moscow Metro unannounced or even appear on State TV unless he's got an important announcement.

    I stand to be corrected but suspect this is another predictable Gramps49 hasn't seen Putin on TV for 24 hours therefore he must have been deposed or replaced by a clone, a robot or a cardboard cut out thing.

    Just as a Martin54 response might be, 'He's lying low until Trump is re-elected ...'

    It's becoming tiresome.

    As you were.

    If Putin's ever deposed the revolution will be televised.

    Happy to eat my words if I'm proven wrong.

  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Martin54 wrote: »
    That'll do her fine until Trump comes on side. I can see him pulling out of NATO on January 21st 2025.

    I don't think Trump could unilaterally do that, and there is almost nobody else in the House, Senate, Pentagon, or State Department who would want it to happen.
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    Did Prigozhin seriously expect to take Moscow? My guess would be he'd have been stopped somewhere on the M4.

    My guess is that Prigozhin was counting on gathering supporters on his march to Moscow. While no one cared enough to impede the march, no one was willing to join it either, demonstrating a lack of overall support.
    There don't seem to have been any reports of Putin being seen since his plane left Moscow on Saturday - and that, of course, is no evidence at all that he was actually on board.

    Putin made a video address earlier today. Of course, it could have been pre-recorded. Addressing a youth group seems like exactly the kind of thing that would be.

    It should also be noted that as far as I know Prigozhin has not been seen in public since the mutiny.
  • Yes, I don't believe that any TV appearance by Putin is necessarily in real time IYSWIM.

    I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Prigozhin has now been eliminated, perhaps in Belarus, so that Lukashenko takes the blame...



  • Martin54 wrote: »
    He's fine. I know that. With as many sigmas of confidence as you like. When was the last time an autocrat was brought down internally in any significant autocracy?

    you can argue about significant, but obviously there were two in 2011 (even I'm not going to call Yemen significant, which would have been the third). Pretty significant if you live/d there though.

    Tunisia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was the first in 2011, but as significant autocrats of significant autocracies go, I think we're on much safer ground later that same year with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    The BBC asked the question where is Putin.

    I am not saying he has been deposed. I do think the mutiny has shaken him to his foundations.

    I guess the Kremlin has now released a video of Putin speaking on Monday. He did not mention anything about the mutiny, though. It has yet to be confirmed.

    The comment about Trump being in a position to pull the US out of NATO is getting tiresome. There is simply no way he can be re-elected. People remember what happened on January 6th. I would say 80% of all Americans want to see him indicted for conspiracy to overthrow the duly elected government.

  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited June 2023
    Martin54 wrote: »
    He's fine. I know that. With as many sigmas of confidence as you like. When was the last time an autocrat was brought down internally in any significant autocracy?

    you can argue about significant, but obviously there were two in 2011 (even I'm not going to call Yemen significant, which would have been the third). Pretty significant if you live/d there though.

    Tunisia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was the first in 2011, but as significant autocrats of significant autocracies go, I think we're on much safer ground later that same year with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak.

    Mugabe in 2017 as well.

    EDIT: I guess you can dispute that Zimbabwe is geopolitically significant, but Mugabe was certainly a significant autocrat within the country.
  • stetson wrote: »
    Martin54 wrote: »
    He's fine. I know that. With as many sigmas of confidence as you like. When was the last time an autocrat was brought down internally in any significant autocracy?

    you can argue about significant, but obviously there were two in 2011 (even I'm not going to call Yemen significant, which would have been the third). Pretty significant if you live/d there though.

    Tunisia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was the first in 2011, but as significant autocrats of significant autocracies go, I think we're on much safer ground later that same year with Egypt's Hosni Mubarak.

    Mugabe in 2017 as well.

    EDIT: I guess you can dispute that Zimbabwe is geopolitically significant, but Mugabe was certainly a significant autocrat within the country.

    I did think of Mugabe - that country certainly *ought* to be geopolitically significant, but his stewardship of it probably ensured its current status of NOT.

    I really don't think there's much arguing with Egypt though, on many, many levels.


  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    Prigozhin is no doubt feeling stressed following his march on Moscow. Maybe he is taking a lengthy rest cure in a suitable hospital somewhere in Belarus or even Russia, where they have more experience in dealing with such cases.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    The BBC asked the question where is Putin.

    I am not saying he has been deposed. I do think the mutiny has shaken him to his foundations.

    I guess the Kremlin has now released a video of Putin speaking on Monday. He did not mention anything about the mutiny, though. It has yet to be confirmed.

    The comment about Trump being in a position to pull the US out of NATO is getting tiresome. There is simply no way he can be re-elected. People remember what happened on January 6th. I would say 80% of all Americans want to see him indicted for conspiracy to overthrow the duly elected government.

    Agreed re the tiresomeness of the pro-Trump rhetoric, although nothing can be taken for granted where That Man is concerned, or so it seems to me.

    As to Putin, it's hard to know exactly when his TV appearances were filmed. Lack of reference to the mutiny is suspicious...
    Eirenist wrote: »
    Prigozhin is no doubt feeling stressed following his march on Moscow. Maybe he is taking a lengthy rest cure in a suitable hospital somewhere in Belarus or even Russia, where they have more experience in dealing with such cases.

    Maybe, but I would guess that any rest cure would be quite short, albeit effective.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    The BBC asked the question where is Putin.

    I am not saying he has been deposed. I do think the mutiny has shaken him to his foundations.

    I guess the Kremlin has now released a video of Putin speaking on Monday. He did not mention anything about the mutiny, though. It has yet to be confirmed.

    The comment about Trump being in a position to pull the US out of NATO is getting tiresome. There is simply no way he can be re-elected. People remember what happened on January 6th. I would say 80% of all Americans want to see him indicted for conspiracy to overthrow the duly elected government.

    Agreed re the tiresomeness of the pro-Trump rhetoric, although nothing can be taken for granted where That Man is concerned, or so it seems to me.

    I agree that Trump is unlikely to ever again be POTUS, though I don't quite concur with @Gramps49 's formulation that "80% of Americans think Trump is guilty of major crimes = 80% of Americans will never vote for Trump again". Voter behaviour doesn't always follow that kind of logical trajectory, and among Republicans who agree that Trump commited crimes on 1/6, there is probably majority who think that Biden is currently doing worse.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    stetson wrote: »
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    The BBC asked the question where is Putin.

    I am not saying he has been deposed. I do think the mutiny has shaken him to his foundations.

    I guess the Kremlin has now released a video of Putin speaking on Monday. He did not mention anything about the mutiny, though. It has yet to be confirmed.

    The comment about Trump being in a position to pull the US out of NATO is getting tiresome. There is simply no way he can be re-elected. People remember what happened on January 6th. I would say 80% of all Americans want to see him indicted for conspiracy to overthrow the duly elected government.

    Agreed re the tiresomeness of the pro-Trump rhetoric, although nothing can be taken for granted where That Man is concerned, or so it seems to me.

    I agree that Trump is unlikely to ever again be POTUS, though I don't quite concur with @Gramps49 's formulation that "80% of Americans think Trump is guilty of major crimes = 80% of Americans will never vote for Trump again". Voter behaviour doesn't always follow that kind of logical trajectory, and among Republicans who agree that Trump commited crimes on 1/6, there is probably majority who think that Biden is currently doing worse.

    I did not say my estimate was based on any specific poll, nor did I say 80% of Americans would not vote for him again. But if you consider this:

    30% of all Americans are considered Republican. 2/3 of them would likely vote for Trump even if he is indicted. That means roughly 20% of American voters are locked in for Trump.

    Unfortunately, Biden's poll numbers are not so good.

    But it is my guess and my guess only that Trump's numbers have no place to go but down. And Biden's numbers, should he run, will go up.
  • NicoleMRNicoleMR Shipmate
    Gramps, Biden is already running.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Opps, I meant nominated.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    Opps, I meant nominated.

    Future health crisis notwithstanding, I'm pretty sure he'll be nominated. This Kennedy jr. stuff is just media hype.
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