"The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress" the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government."
""We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that." Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night."
Thanks Doublethink, and thanks others for your comments on my question. Your views were what I picked up from the speech, but there was some debate here (in this house) as to whether that was what was meant, perhaps due to our kids still being in school (I understand why the schools are not closing yet). OK, here we go.
"The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress" the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government."
""We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that." Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night."
Is this for real? Long pause, deep breaths.
It appears they modeled for the same hospitalisation rates as viral pneumonia - as info for the novel illness was obviously not available.
They have been tracking the data from around the world, in particular Italy - and it indicates that the hospitalisation rate is much higher, about 30%. Consequently, the strategy is being changed.
Basically it looks like somekind of lockdown until a vaccination is available. That means possibly about 18 months.
"The UK only realised "in the last few days" that attempts to "mitigate" the impact of the coronavirus pandemic would not work, and that it needed to shift to a strategy to "suppress" the outbreak, according to a report by a team of experts who have been advising the government."
""We were expecting herd immunity to build. We now realise it’s not possible to cope with that." Professor Azra Ghani, chair of infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial, told journalists at a briefing on Monday night."
Is this for real? Long pause, deep breaths.
It appears they modeled for the same hospitalisation rates as viral pneumonia - as info for the novel illness was obviously not available.
It appears that this model had more impact on policy than the advice of the WHO and the experience of China, South Korea and Taiwan. Even at the 10% figure they were using last week you could do 0.6*60m*10% and compare against beds/ventilators etc.
My guess is that COBRA are being presented with a range of forecasts in this fast developing situation. Lots of unknowns still. A death rate of 250 thousand in the UK would put it on a par with Spanish Flu (which had three spikes I think) taking into account population in 1920 (44 million) and 2018 (64 million). On the basis of the epidemiology I've seen so far, that looks pessimistic. But a UK death rate in 6 figures now looks more likely, with a correspondingly very high need for hospitalisation (and no present means of coping with that).
So I'm sure there is a significant risk that UK measures to flatten the curve may fail, in which case an NHS overload would be inevitable. Hence the daily press conferences. Expect even tougher lines on self isolation and some grasping of means of enforcement. Desperate times.
DT, the major difference with the Spanish Flu is the sections of the population at greatest risk. With Spanish Flu it was young adults. So I'm thinking that self-isolation and household quarantine of people aged 70+ will indeed produce a significant mitigation. What surprised me in the study was the estimated unmitigated death total (UK) of over half a million out of a population of 64 million, since by modern standards the UK Spanish Flu total (220,000) out of 44 million UK citizens was very largely unmitigated. And Spanish Flu seems to have been more virulent than coronavirus (how much more remains to be proved). So that half a million unmitigated figure still looks high to me, though a 50% mitigation does look very reasonable. But it is clearly not out of the question.
What seems now to be very likely is a six figure (100,00 plus) UK death toll from this virus and the great majority of those deaths occurring amongst the 70+, and that assumes effective application (enforcement) of both mitigation and suppression strategies.
My son placed a grocery order through Whole Foods/Amazon for delivery on Friday. They usually have two-hour delivery. They told him due to the virus, delivery would not be until Sunday. This morning he was able to communicate through the internet to the WF picker about noon. But the delivery has yet to arrive. There was perishable meat in the order. He is not happy.
Edit: The order was finally delivered late Sunday afternoon. Son was just checking the outside before locking the door for the evening and it was there.
Double Edit: This morning Son got a text from Whole Foods saying they could not deliver the order and were, therefore canceling it. They also got a $50 coupon for the cancellation.
I am thinking Whole Foods would have to refund what he paid for the food since they said they could not deliver it.
The deal of it is, when he tried to call back to say it had been delivered, they told him to keep the food, refund, and coupon. It was too much of a bother to redo everything.
Son said he was going to donate his refund and coupon to a local charity.
The governor of Ohio wanted to cancel tomorrow's primary and started a lawsuit to that end. The judge overruled him, so the primary will go on. But I imagine Ohio residents are totally confused, and that, as well as the virus, will influence turnouts.
Yes, I'm confused, Nicole. Until I read your post I still thought the election was called off until June 2nd. I was planning to vote by mail, now I just wont vote. This should be good for Bernie with all Biden's Boomer fans afraid to go vote, while Bernie's youngin's still can.
I started thinking 'Arduino' and 'ventilator' and lo, as usual I was not the first person to have the thought... I'm even more of an amateur than this guy with electronic control, but I do have an industrial oxygen bottle in the back garden with quite a lot in it. Just have to remember to turn on the oxygen, not the propane (brazing gear).
What about your basic little oxygen tank that I see so many seniors pulling behind them like shaved Pomeranians? Would a whiff of that every few minutes be better than nothing? Can you get those without a prescription?
This is going to make Karl mad, but I read somewhere or other this morning that ibuprofen (which I just stocked up on) is bad for Covid-19. Of course that hasn't been tested for truth, but do we have time for that? Might we have to rely on internet info sharing to some extent during this?
(I’d suggest read8ng the summary, and the full discussion.)
Following my previous post.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London was on Radio 4 this morning. A summary of what has happened is Imperial College has moved from seeing the 250,000 mitigated death rate for the UK as worst case scenario to seeing it as most likely outcome. Listening carefully to what he said, it seems as though the death rate in Italy has had a major effect on the mortality rates they are now using in the model. He observed that there are other modellers working on this coming up with similar predictions.
Suppression may be a more effective way of keeping the pressure off the NHS short term, but suppression would need to be in force until a vaccine is readily available (up to 18 months). Mitigation will take some pressure off the Health Service but not enough to avoid overloading the currently available and predicted improved resources.
Basically, the world is up shit creek, currently without a paddle.
I'm assuming that notions of herd immunity have been abandoned, since the collateral damage is large. Suppression presumably works, as in China and Korea, but has to be maintained until there is a vaccine.
Went to the supermarket at 8am, they actually had bread, spuds, green veg. Fish all gone, bit of a nuisance since I don't eat meat.
Suppression may be a more effective way of keeping the pressure off the NHS short term, but suppression would need to be in force until a vaccine is readily available (up to 18 months). Mitigation will take some pressure off the Health Service but not enough to avoid overloading the currently available and predicted improved resources.
So the UK needs to start at least some suppression measures now and legally enforce and support them financially, 'suggested measures' won't cut it.
Boris is being laissez faire, I guess. It probably won't last.
I know I repeat myself but I think the sad fact is he doesn't really want to be Prime Minister. Oh he wants the prestige and the attention and the title but he has no vision for our nation in normal times nor any clue of what to do in abnormal times.
I'm not one for letting governments off hooks, but in this case it seems as though the scientific advice has changed as a result of more up to date statistics, so the models are now making more dire predictions. So the stronger government recommendations seem to have more to do with that then any political considerations.
On the separate point "advise rather than command" there may be more room for criticism, on the "duty of care" basis I argued earlier. But commands can be very broadbrush and sometimes counter-productive in their appplication. I'll be interested to hear what the government has to say about financial support. Without some support, many businesses are just going to die. Aviation, travel and holiday, hospitality, just to quote three examples, all look to have to deal with a massive crash in demand.
Incidentally, it isn't a matter of "annoying Karl" - misinformation on things as serious as this can potentially kill people. It matters. No, we cannot rely at all on unreferenced posts on social media.
I'm not one for letting governments off hooks, but in this case it seems as though the scientific advice has changed as a result of more up to date statistics, so the models are now making more dire predictions.
In a matter of days - after days of well qualified people elsewhere raising questions about it, again highlighting why peer review is an important part of science.
Days when the commentariat were quite happy to rubbish calls for openness as 'playing politics' simply because they came from a leader of the opposition that they don't like.
On the separate point "advise rather than command" there may be more room for criticism, on the "duty of care" basis I argued earlier. But commands can be very broadbrush and sometimes counter-productive in their appplication.
Commands being possibly counter-productive is not an argument to do nothing is it ? At this point there are plenty of employers still insisting on their ill employees come into work - including at local authorities and schools.
I'll be interested to hear what the government has to say about financial support. Without some support, many businesses are just going to die. Aviation, travel and holiday, hospitality, just to quote three examples, all look to have to deal with a massive crash in demand.
Not to get at you - because I know you don't mean it this way; but I'm interested in a worldview that thinks that individuals should be able to support themselves for a couple of months, but businesses need handouts straight away.
I know I repeat myself but I think the sad fact is he doesn't really want to be Prime Minister.
Well, perhaps he'll end up as one of the Guilty Men.
I thought some mathematicians and modellers attacked the initial govt response, especially any mention of herd immunity or mitigation. As mentioned, Nassim Nicholas Taleb was vituperative immediately, he has various Twitter threads; since I'm not a mathematician, I find it hard to follow. Anyway, they were saying that China and Korea had the correct approach.
Canada has shut all nonCanadians out except for Americans which is about money not about safety. Our office protocol includes not allowing anyone in who's been there or been in any airport. Minimum 2 weeks. Going to pay staff if they are quarantined. They can do some phone, tele-commuting, remote computer if they're feeling good. We're starting with 2 weeks of. So far there's very few cases locally. It's all about 2nd hand asymptomatic exposure. So far no one.
Childcare is a nightmare with schools out. Haven't worked that out. Thinking that they should bring kids to office when necessary and work as can from home.
This sort of situation is why business owners need to have money in the bank.
chris, I think support of businesses does support individuals who work for them. Even if they get laid off, they still need a job to come back to.
Of course you are right about individual support as well. Personally I think the government should give folks a payment holiday re utilities and council tax. I think the French have done something like that.
Went to local UK supermarket this morning. On the evidence of empty shelves, it looks as if toilet rolls and pasta are set to occupy the place of cigarettes and nylon stockings in post-war Europe - I mean as an alternative currency. Whatever happened to 'Keep Calm and Carry On'?
Incidentally, it isn't a matter of "annoying Karl" - misinformation on things as serious as this can potentially kill people. It matters. No, we cannot rely at all on unreferenced posts on social media.
I'm not going to post something I saw in the Youtube comments or heard at the drug store, but If I read something in one of the Google news links, I think I should be able to mention it here as "something I read," because it's not as if any one epidemiologist or any one news source is the last word on covid-19 so "sources" don't mean that much.
This is a perfect case in point. I could have linked to this or another article saying don't take ibuprofen or I could have linked to the NHS saying we should take ibuprofen. I like to have a heads up about this sort of thing even when the powers that be have not made up their minds on the issue or had time to do a huge study with control groups.
We might just have to consider all opinions, sort through it ourselves, and use our common sense. Just having a link to something doesn't make it true. And just as you're afraid I'm going to "kill someone" by not having a link, I'm afraid I'm going to be left out of important information because someone thought it hadn't been studied long enough.
It's bad enough that we live in a world where so many government leaders operate by the patronizing model of, "let's not tell them the whole truth they might panic." We're already behind the curve because of that.
All this morning's bread delivery gone. Plus the specialist Cooks' Ingredients shelves cleared of dried porcini, shiitaki and wild mushrooms at £2.99 a jar.
Some state governments are now directing "non-essential" businesses to close--without clear guidance as to what is "non-essential." A gun shop owner on the news this morning was not closing because he considered his business "essential"--after all, it is a 2nd Amendment right!
And, sadly, he may be right. Grocery stores aren't the only ones getting swamped with buyers...gun stores are reportedly being swamped with people buying guns and ammunition. After all, if food etc. is in short supply, "others" will come to take your provisions! You have to defend yourself!
I am sure these are all good Christians, just following the Lord's advice: "Slay your enemies and aim for those who persecute you."
If that's the attitude in America, then you're all doomed. The rednecks (all Good Christian Boys™, every one of them) will mean business, if the Murcan Way Of Life is threatened - or that's the impression we get here, across the Pond.
I was in Wal-Mart at about nine-thirty this morning, and there were NO EGGS. They normally have large quantities and a great variety--various sizes, white and brown, regular,free-range, organic, grain-fed. There was not a single egg in sight.
I went across the street to ALDIs, where they still had as large supply.
If that's the attitude in America, then you're all doomed. The rednecks (all Good Christian Boys™, every one of them) will mean business, if the Murcan Way Of Life is threatened - or that's the impression we get here, across the Pond.
It’s really this straightforward. Metzl goes to hospitals where people simply tell him they would rather die than have Obamacare go to the undeserving. For these people, very much working class whites, race simply means far, far more to them than class. Moreover, it means more to them than their own lives. They are comfortable with their own death. They are not comfortable with Guatemalan migrants receiving health care.
If that's the attitude in America, then you're all doomed. The rednecks (all Good Christian Boys™, every one of them) will mean business, if the Murcan Way Of Life is threatened - or that's the impression we get here, across the Pond.
Minus guns I'm not entirely sure the UK is all that different.
This is all new. The data is incomplete but there are early indications that NSAIDS (I.e. Ibuprofen) MIGHT exacerbate Covid-19. So the best advice at the moment is to avoid them IF possible. If needed for some other reason get advice.
This is all new. The data is incomplete but there are early indications that NSAIDS (I.e. Ibuprofen) MIGHT exacerbate Covid-19. So the best advice at the moment is to avoid them IF possible. If needed for some other reason get advice.
AFZ
The report in your link is of 4 people in France, with the specific NSAID not identified initially and then a general discussion of ibuprofen.. The link you posted also contains the hospital's advice that discussing individual patients isn't appropriate, and contradistinctly going to discuss various experts discussing how and why it might be true. We already have shipmates discussing their use of medications.
I appreciate that you capitalized "might", and suggest to shipmates that if they have NSAIDs to take for another condition, follow medical advice specifically given to you by your own physician or other practitioner. And also consider that ibuprofen or other NSAIDs have nothing to do with your likelihood of catching this virus.
Thus please do not use this link @Boogie to stop a medication. And don't use the Ship for medical advice. If you get the virus, follow recommendations specific to you.
To be fair to AFZ, that was a news article from the British Medical Journal (one of the top 5 most cited medical journals) rather than a ‘my-smart-uncle-says’ twitterfeed, and offered with all the caveats one might wish for. But of course we should always be guided by our clinicians.
The British public seem to have got the message a couple of days ago anyway - yesterday you could find plenty of ibuprofen in supermarkets and pharmacies, but not a single paracetamol tablet was to be had.
In other news, the purchasing frenzy is getting increasingly bizarre. Yesterday I saw a shopper looking aghast at the empty TP shelves, moving on to the adjacent kleenex shelves (looking equally unhappy at their emptiness) before finally moving along and FILLING the cart with Kitchen Roll. Why so much?! I can understand people using anything in an emergency, but to commit to weeks of sandpapering your fundament seems beyond desperation.
You are at liberty to point to additional information about the risk. Not to judge the acceptability of the posts made under Ship guidelines. Leave that to the Hosts.
All Shipmates
Posting information from a legitimate source (like the BMJ) and commenting on it is a very normal action by any Shipmate. It does not constitute professional medical advice to any Shipmate. Nor should it ever be taken as such. The Ship does not exist for such purposes. If you need medical advice, consult a physician.
I’ve been on strong NSAIDs. I’ve just taken my last dose and moved to the tens machine.
Darn - they were really starting to work. 😖
I don't want to go down the line of giving specific medical advice on the Ship. That would not be appropriate but I will say a little more.
I posted this link on FB and here because the UK official advice seems to be lagging behind. But the public health picture is advising people to stay at home rather than attending for medical advice so I think it important to share this kind of information.
I will also share with you the conversation that followed with a friend of mine who's just been prescribed an NSAID for a shoulder complaint. In the absence of any signs or symptoms of Covid-19, there is no reason to stop the NSAID. If symptoms develop then seek specific advice as to whether it's best to stop or not.
The point of this article in the British Medical Journal is that our best but very limited information suggests that people who are self quarantined for Covid-19 symptoms should not START ibuprofen. For people already on it, a case by case weighing up risks and benefits will be needed.
Quite possibly there is no increased risk at all. We just don't know yet.
I am a registered medical practitioner but I will only post here links to reliable sources and the best info I know of rather than my professional advice. Boogie don't just stop; talk to your doctor if you're worried.
Comments
Is this for real? Long pause, deep breaths.
Thanks Doublethink, and thanks others for your comments on my question. Your views were what I picked up from the speech, but there was some debate here (in this house) as to whether that was what was meant, perhaps due to our kids still being in school (I understand why the schools are not closing yet). OK, here we go.
It appears they modeled for the same hospitalisation rates as viral pneumonia - as info for the novel illness was obviously not available.
They have been tracking the data from around the world, in particular Italy - and it indicates that the hospitalisation rate is much higher, about 30%. Consequently, the strategy is being changed.
Basically it looks like somekind of lockdown until a vaccination is available. That means possibly about 18 months.
It appears that this model had more impact on policy than the advice of the WHO and the experience of China, South Korea and Taiwan. Even at the 10% figure they were using last week you could do 0.6*60m*10% and compare against beds/ventilators etc.
So I'm sure there is a significant risk that UK measures to flatten the curve may fail, in which case an NHS overload would be inevitable. Hence the daily press conferences. Expect even tougher lines on self isolation and some grasping of means of enforcement. Desperate times.
(I’d suggest read8ng the summary, and the full discussion.)
DT, the major difference with the Spanish Flu is the sections of the population at greatest risk. With Spanish Flu it was young adults. So I'm thinking that self-isolation and household quarantine of people aged 70+ will indeed produce a significant mitigation. What surprised me in the study was the estimated unmitigated death total (UK) of over half a million out of a population of 64 million, since by modern standards the UK Spanish Flu total (220,000) out of 44 million UK citizens was very largely unmitigated. And Spanish Flu seems to have been more virulent than coronavirus (how much more remains to be proved). So that half a million unmitigated figure still looks high to me, though a 50% mitigation does look very reasonable. But it is clearly not out of the question.
What seems now to be very likely is a six figure (100,00 plus) UK death toll from this virus and the great majority of those deaths occurring amongst the 70+, and that assumes effective application (enforcement) of both mitigation and suppression strategies.
Edit: The order was finally delivered late Sunday afternoon. Son was just checking the outside before locking the door for the evening and it was there.
Double Edit: This morning Son got a text from Whole Foods saying they could not deliver the order and were, therefore canceling it. They also got a $50 coupon for the cancellation.
I am thinking Whole Foods would have to refund what he paid for the food since they said they could not deliver it.
The deal of it is, when he tried to call back to say it had been delivered, they told him to keep the food, refund, and coupon. It was too much of a bother to redo everything.
Son said he was going to donate his refund and coupon to a local charity.
What about your basic little oxygen tank that I see so many seniors pulling behind them like shaved Pomeranians? Would a whiff of that every few minutes be better than nothing? Can you get those without a prescription?
This is going to make Karl mad, but I read somewhere or other this morning that ibuprofen (which I just stocked up on) is bad for Covid-19. Of course that hasn't been tested for truth, but do we have time for that? Might we have to rely on internet info sharing to some extent during this?
Following my previous post.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London was on Radio 4 this morning. A summary of what has happened is Imperial College has moved from seeing the 250,000 mitigated death rate for the UK as worst case scenario to seeing it as most likely outcome. Listening carefully to what he said, it seems as though the death rate in Italy has had a major effect on the mortality rates they are now using in the model. He observed that there are other modellers working on this coming up with similar predictions.
Suppression may be a more effective way of keeping the pressure off the NHS short term, but suppression would need to be in force until a vaccine is readily available (up to 18 months). Mitigation will take some pressure off the Health Service but not enough to avoid overloading the currently available and predicted improved resources.
Basically, the world is up shit creek, currently without a paddle.
Went to the supermarket at 8am, they actually had bread, spuds, green veg. Fish all gone, bit of a nuisance since I don't eat meat.
I’ve moved it to the All Saints thread where it belongs.
So the UK needs to start at least some suppression measures now and legally enforce and support them financially, 'suggested measures' won't cut it.
This entire episode proves to usefulness of review of some kind.
I know I repeat myself but I think the sad fact is he doesn't really want to be Prime Minister. Oh he wants the prestige and the attention and the title but he has no vision for our nation in normal times nor any clue of what to do in abnormal times.
AFZ
On the separate point "advise rather than command" there may be more room for criticism, on the "duty of care" basis I argued earlier. But commands can be very broadbrush and sometimes counter-productive in their appplication. I'll be interested to hear what the government has to say about financial support. Without some support, many businesses are just going to die. Aviation, travel and holiday, hospitality, just to quote three examples, all look to have to deal with a massive crash in demand.
In a matter of days - after days of well qualified people elsewhere raising questions about it, again highlighting why peer review is an important part of science.
Days when the commentariat were quite happy to rubbish calls for openness as 'playing politics' simply because they came from a leader of the opposition that they don't like.
Commands being possibly counter-productive is not an argument to do nothing is it ? At this point there are plenty of employers still insisting on their ill employees come into work - including at local authorities and schools.
Not to get at you - because I know you don't mean it this way; but I'm interested in a worldview that thinks that individuals should be able to support themselves for a couple of months, but businesses need handouts straight away.
Well, perhaps he'll end up as one of the Guilty Men.
He asked for this job, he wanted it and coveted it. Well, now he’s got it and he must step up.
If he regrets it. Tough. He’s made his bed.
Childcare is a nightmare with schools out. Haven't worked that out. Thinking that they should bring kids to office when necessary and work as can from home.
This sort of situation is why business owners need to have money in the bank.
Of course you are right about individual support as well. Personally I think the government should give folks a payment holiday re utilities and council tax. I think the French have done something like that.
But I'm not holding my breath.
I'm not going to post something I saw in the Youtube comments or heard at the drug store, but If I read something in one of the Google news links, I think I should be able to mention it here as "something I read," because it's not as if any one epidemiologist or any one news source is the last word on covid-19 so "sources" don't mean that much.
This is a perfect case in point. I could have linked to this or another article saying don't take ibuprofen or I could have linked to the NHS saying we should take ibuprofen. I like to have a heads up about this sort of thing even when the powers that be have not made up their minds on the issue or had time to do a huge study with control groups.
We might just have to consider all opinions, sort through it ourselves, and use our common sense. Just having a link to something doesn't make it true. And just as you're afraid I'm going to "kill someone" by not having a link, I'm afraid I'm going to be left out of important information because someone thought it hadn't been studied long enough.
It's bad enough that we live in a world where so many government leaders operate by the patronizing model of, "let's not tell them the whole truth they might panic." We're already behind the curve because of that.
And, sadly, he may be right. Grocery stores aren't the only ones getting swamped with buyers...gun stores are reportedly being swamped with people buying guns and ammunition. After all, if food etc. is in short supply, "others" will come to take your provisions! You have to defend yourself!
I am sure these are all good Christians, just following the Lord's advice: "Slay your enemies and aim for those who persecute you."
If that's the attitude in America, then you're all doomed. The rednecks (all Good Christian Boys™, every one of them) will mean business, if the Murcan Way Of Life is threatened - or that's the impression we get here, across the Pond.
Apologies if I am here perpetuating a stereotype.
I went across the street to ALDIs, where they still had as large supply.
For a more in-depth examination of this type of thing and its social consequences I direct you to this book review of Jonathan Metzl's Dying of Whiteness, which I brought up in another thread.
The key observation:
Minus guns I'm not entirely sure the UK is all that different.
This is all new. The data is incomplete but there are early indications that NSAIDS (I.e. Ibuprofen) MIGHT exacerbate Covid-19. So the best advice at the moment is to avoid them IF possible. If needed for some other reason get advice.
AFZ
I’ve been on strong NSAIDs. I’ve just taken my last dose and moved to the tens machine.
Darn - they were really starting to work. 😖
…..and so now has the Church in Wales.....
((My poor nephew))
The report in your link is of 4 people in France, with the specific NSAID not identified initially and then a general discussion of ibuprofen.. The link you posted also contains the hospital's advice that discussing individual patients isn't appropriate, and contradistinctly going to discuss various experts discussing how and why it might be true. We already have shipmates discussing their use of medications.
I appreciate that you capitalized "might", and suggest to shipmates that if they have NSAIDs to take for another condition, follow medical advice specifically given to you by your own physician or other practitioner. And also consider that ibuprofen or other NSAIDs have nothing to do with your likelihood of catching this virus.
Thus please do not use this link @Boogie to stop a medication. And don't use the Ship for medical advice. If you get the virus, follow recommendations specific to you.
The British public seem to have got the message a couple of days ago anyway - yesterday you could find plenty of ibuprofen in supermarkets and pharmacies, but not a single paracetamol tablet was to be had.
In other news, the purchasing frenzy is getting increasingly bizarre. Yesterday I saw a shopper looking aghast at the empty TP shelves, moving on to the adjacent kleenex shelves (looking equally unhappy at their emptiness) before finally moving along and FILLING the cart with Kitchen Roll. Why so much?! I can understand people using anything in an emergency, but to commit to weeks of sandpapering your fundament seems beyond desperation.
You are at liberty to point to additional information about the risk. Not to judge the acceptability of the posts made under Ship guidelines. Leave that to the Hosts.
All Shipmates
Posting information from a legitimate source (like the BMJ) and commenting on it is a very normal action by any Shipmate. It does not constitute professional medical advice to any Shipmate. Nor should it ever be taken as such. The Ship does not exist for such purposes. If you need medical advice, consult a physician.
Barnabas62
Purgatory Host
I don't want to go down the line of giving specific medical advice on the Ship. That would not be appropriate but I will say a little more.
I posted this link on FB and here because the UK official advice seems to be lagging behind. But the public health picture is advising people to stay at home rather than attending for medical advice so I think it important to share this kind of information.
I will also share with you the conversation that followed with a friend of mine who's just been prescribed an NSAID for a shoulder complaint. In the absence of any signs or symptoms of Covid-19, there is no reason to stop the NSAID. If symptoms develop then seek specific advice as to whether it's best to stop or not.
The point of this article in the British Medical Journal is that our best but very limited information suggests that people who are self quarantined for Covid-19 symptoms should not START ibuprofen. For people already on it, a case by case weighing up risks and benefits will be needed.
Quite possibly there is no increased risk at all. We just don't know yet.
I am a registered medical practitioner but I will only post here links to reliable sources and the best info I know of rather than my professional advice. Boogie don't just stop; talk to your doctor if you're worried.
AFZ