Ukrainian Counter offensive--will they be able to take Crimea?

Came across this article discussing whether Ukraine can take Crimea.

The question is: how successful will Ukraine be in its counter offensive?

A number of countries have donated Leopard II tanks. Britain has donated a squad of Centurions. The United States will begin training Ukrainian solders on the Abrams in May. It will probably take at least a couple of months to get them in the field, though.

This is along with the contributions of older aircraft and drones. What Ukraine would really like, though, is the F16 or its equivalents.

Are we ready for this?
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Comments

  • Hmmm ... Crimea looks eminently defensible from the land and Ukraine would have to neutralise the prospect of a flank attack from the east if they were to attempt it.

    Putin may resort to battlefield nukes or similar nasties.

    Even if they were successful then, as the article says, any attempt to 'detox' - read 'ethnically cleanse' - Crimea would embarrass Western supporters.

    We are talking Yugoslavia with nukes.

    Any attempt to retake Crimea would not be pretty. Heavy casualties on both sides I'd imagine and if they settle for blockade or long range bombardment then we'd see considerable civilian losses too.

    All in all, the whole situation is pretty shitty. We can't turn the clock back though. How the whole sorry mess can be resolved is anyone's guess.
  • Depends on who gets 'detoxed' Russian citizens who settled in Crimea after 2014 would likely have to go, those who lived in Crimea before 2014 are Ukrainian citizens who suffered an invasion.

    At this point it looks like the Ukrainians are planning to cut off Crimea by pushing through Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and Mariupol. It appears a landing across the Dniepr is developing. That is high-risk and it means Ukraine is putting all in.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    They'll be lucky to re-take Kherson via west Zoporizhzhia up against Russian anti-tank air superiority. Have they built up enough ammunition yet? That the entire West is unable to keep up with.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    I think the first 24 hours of the counter offensive will be the most crucial. Depends on if the Russian soldiers will hold the line or turn and run--more likely surrender, considering prisoners tell of units behind them that were there to block any retreat. Then too, can the Ukrainians disrupt the command and control system behind the front lines.

    Yes, the West has struggled to keep up with supplying ammunition, but it is quite likely the Russians are also having their problems with supplying their front lines considering the sanctions that have been imposed on them. I think it ultimately depends on which side has more munitions in reserve.

    The Russians have yet to establish air superiority in the theatre. Time will tell, though.


  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    I think the first 24 hours of the counter offensive will be the most crucial. Depends on if the Russian soldiers will hold the line or turn and run--more likely surrender, considering prisoners tell of units behind them that were there to block any retreat. Then too, can the Ukrainians disrupt the command and control system behind the front lines.

    Yes, the West has struggled to keep up with supplying ammunition, but it is quite likely the Russians are also having their problems with supplying their front lines considering the sanctions that have been imposed on them. I think it ultimately depends on which side has more munitions in reserve.

    The Russians have yet to establish air superiority in the theatre. Time will tell, though.

    They have superiority, enough for ground attack against armour. Kill the Leopards and there's no combined services.
  • I think there are two pitfalls we can fall into, said Gamaliel the well-known military strategist.

    One is to under-estimate the Russians. The other is to over-estimate them.

  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    To paraphrase Churchill.
  • TelfordTelford Shipmate
    It took Germany 8 months to take Crimea in WW2 and the Germans were led by their very best general. It's a very difficult place.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Aye, the second siege of Sevastopol, 250 days. Mannstein. The Russians were awesome.
  • HarryCHHarryCH Shipmate
    I think that if Ukraine does not manage to retake Crimea, they will make the Russians pay a lot of very red cash to keep it.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    How?
  • Well, it looks as though Ukraine can hit the Kremlin. They are denying it but in and amongst the 'false flag' accusations an analyst interviewed on BBC Radio 4 said he'd put money on it being Ukraine behind the drone attack.

    I'd see it as a gesture rather than a serious attempt to assassinate Putin.

    It could lead to even nastier developments though. As if 21 people killed by Russian bombardment today isn't nasty enough.
  • May 9th is Victory Day. It's a message that Moscow isn't safe.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    edited May 2023
    May 9th is Victory Day. It's a message that Moscow isn't safe.

    That's some pretty unfortunate symbolism, from the POV of refuting the pro-Russian argument that the Ukrainian resistance are all just a buncha nazis.

    I mean, I get the idea of hitting Russia on the anniversary of their biggest military victory("Where's your great army NOW? Better surrender while ya still can."). But it's kinda like if someone today were to bomb Washington DC on the anniversary of the Union victory in the ACW. He'd be kind of inviting people to identify his cause with the Confederacy.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited May 2023
    I am not convinced the drone attack on the Kremlin was a Ukrainian operation. Why would they attack the Kremlin in the middle of the night when it was unoccupied?

    See these comments.


    The question is who benefits from the attack? Putin,
  • Alan Cresswell Alan Cresswell Admin, 8th Day Host
    May 9th is also Victory Day in Ukraine (and, Belarus etc) as it's a day to remember the Soviet victory rather than an explicitly Russian victory. Ukrainians, Belarussians and Russians all suffered massive civilian and military losses fighting the German lead invasion, and other Soviet republics lost vast numbers of soldiers and the hardships of the war economy. I can't see why the Ukrainian government would sully the memorial of their national sacrifice with an attack on Russian civilians marking that day. Maybe they'd consider the symbolism of a major push against the occupying Russian military, remember those who fought and died to rid their nation of Nazi's in the 1940s by a major push to rid the nation of the nazi-equivalent invaders today.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    I doubt if the drones were launched from the Ukraine, whoever launched them. It seems an unlikely way of assassinating Putin.
  • HarryCHHarryCH Shipmate
    There is a limit on how far one can fly a drone. To think Ukraine sent it, you have to suppose they had an agent in the Moscow area. If you seriously wanted to kill Putin, a legitimate target in wartime, you would use multiple drones and larger ones (this one was almost a toy) , attacking from several directions at once. You would also need good intelligence on Putin's location, which is probably a closely-guarded secret.
  • I seem to recall reading fairly recently that Putin's location is always a very closely guarded secret, with some ingenious ways of keeping it so - such as duplicated railway lines, to fool any would-be saboteurs and/or assassins.

    No, I doubt if Ukraine was responsible, at any rate officially. Who knows whether some maverick might not have decided to see what a drone could do? A dangerous game, though, giving Putin just the excuse he wants to fire up the nukes. With that in mind, I'm more inclined to think that Putin himself was responsible...
  • CrœsosCrœsos Shipmate
    With that in mind, I'm more inclined to think that Putin himself was responsible...

    Distinctly possible. Some points by Adam Silverman:
    1. Putin wasn’t at the Kremlin.
    2. Putin’s apartments at the Kremlin are heavily fortified and aren’t going to be damaged by a long distance drone.
    3. The Kremlin sat on this for 12 hours!
    4. There is no way that given all the air defense that Russia has put up in Moscow, especially at the Kremlin and on the MOD building, that these drones came all the way in from Ukraine and could only be intercepted while framed perfectly against one of the domes with a flag flying in the air, the moon squarely in the shot, and while a camera just happened to be aimed perfectly to catch it all.

    In the end I suppose it doesn't matter. The Kremlin will use this to claim victimhood regardless of the truth of the situation.
  • Thing is, there have been other attacks within Russia. Such as those against freight trains and the like.

    This one seems odd and certainly not a serious attempt to assassinate Putin.

    I don't know why but I'm still not inclined to see it as a 'false flag' thing. Too convenient.

    The LSE analyst interviewed by BBC Radio 4 said he'd put money on Ukraine being behind it. I suspect it might be. Look, we can hit the Kremlin. I doubt the drones were launched from inside the Ukraine though.

    Saying that does not imply any sympathy for Putin's invasion.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    The leader of the Wagner Group is threatening to pull out of Bakmut by May 10. The beginning of the end?

  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    For him.
  • He certainly hasn't been mincing his words when criticising the Russian leadership.
  • stetsonstetson Shipmate
    He certainly hasn't been mincing his words when criticising the Russian leadership.

    The theory I've heard is it's mostly just a bluff to get more ammunition.

    I suppose that illustrates a drawback of hiring private mercenaries: they'll be less reluctant than regular troops to trash you publically when things go to hell.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited May 2023
    Yes, the poor dears are reduced to using phosphorous now. Maybe the prison anti-recidivism program has run its course?
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    The Ukrainians are now claiming to have shot down one of the Russian's most sophisticated hypersonic missiles, the K-47, using an aged American-made Patriot Missile. I heard of this shoot down yesterday, but then Ukraine denied it. Now they are acknowledging it. Says something about the quality of the Russian missile system.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    What version Patriot is it? That makes it aged? With 20 years to go.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    I cannot find the information regarding the actual version of the Patriot that was used. All I know is the Patriot System first became operational in 1984. That means the basic system is nearly 60 years old.
  • HarryCHHarryCH Shipmate
    As far as I can tell, 2023-1984 is not "nearly 60". Try again.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Ok, 40
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited May 2023
    Gramps49 wrote: »
    I cannot find the information regarding the actual version of the Patriot that was used. All I know is the Patriot System first became operational in 1984. That means the basic system is nearly 60 years old.

    So you have no basis of saying aged, and won't in 20 years when the highly evolved system will be 60 years old.

    MIM-104A
    MIM-104B (PAC-1)
    MIM-104C (PAC-2)
    MIM-104D (PAC-2/GEM)
    MIM-104E (PAC-2/GEM+)
    MIM-104F (PAC-3)
    ...Configuration 1
    ...Configuration 2
    ...Configuration 3
    PAC-3 MSE
    SkyCeptor (PAAC-4)

    with as many software upgrades, 4 in PAC-3, the latest under test for the past 4 years.

    Evolution to come:
    Future upgrades to the Patriot system will include new GhostEye radar (formerly Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor or LTAMDS)[68][69] with support for a Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System (IBCS) - which will integrate Patriot's GhostEye, AN/MPQ-53 and AN/MPQ-65/65A radars with AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel and AN/TPS-80 G/ATOR,[70] GhostEye MR (NASAMS), MFCR and SR from MEADS, AN/SPY-1 and AN/SPY-6 (Aegis BMD), AN/TPY-2 (THAAD and GMD) and AN/APG-81 (F-35 Lightning II) radars - and Mode 5 transponder interrogation in the identification friend or foe system.[60]

    So no wonder it can take out obsolete hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhals (Daggers).
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Again, I could not find the specific evolution of the Patriot that was used. But,, in theory, it would have been a slower missile hitting a much (claimed) faster missile. I know it had to do with calculating the impact point which would be related to the computer/radar system.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/05/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-hypersonic-missile-patriot/ illustrates a PAC-3. We have to assume Configuration 3, PDB-8 upgrade. The most advanced in the field, to be able to take out a Kinzhal even decelerated by an order of magnitude at the end of it's trajectory.
  • TurquoiseTasticTurquoiseTastic Kerygmania Host
    stetson wrote: »
    He certainly hasn't been mincing his words when criticising the Russian leadership.

    The theory I've heard is it's mostly just a bluff to get more ammunition.

    I suppose that illustrates a drawback of hiring private mercenaries: they'll be less reluctant than regular troops to trash you publically when things go to hell.

    There was an 1980s type-it-in computer game called "Doge of Venice" where if you hired mercenaries and later fired them they would run riot, giving messages such as "THEY HAVE GOUGED OUT ONE OF YOUR EYES AND BEATEN YOU TO A PULP - AGAIN"
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Martin54 wrote: »
    The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/05/ukraine-shoots-down-russian-hypersonic-missile-patriot/ illustrates a PAC-3. We have to assume Configuration 3, PDB-8 upgrade. The most advanced in the field, to be able to take out a Kinzhal even decelerated by an order of magnitude at the end of it's trajectory.

    it's?!!
    stetson wrote: »
    He certainly hasn't been mincing his words when criticising the Russian leadership.

    The theory I've heard is it's mostly just a bluff to get more ammunition.

    I suppose that illustrates a drawback of hiring private mercenaries: they'll be less reluctant than regular troops to trash you publically when things go to hell.

    There was an 1980s type-it-in computer game called "Doge of Venice" where if you hired mercenaries and later fired them they would run riot, giving messages such as "THEY HAVE GOUGED OUT ONE OF YOUR EYES AND BEATEN YOU TO A PULP - AGAIN"

    Should be my punishment.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    It's taken me till now what I should have said, as it was known, that the West did not want Ukraine to retake Crimea, its meaningless gift from Khrushchev in the year of my birth.

    But US 'strategic ambiguity' may change.
    December 2022, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated that the U.S. goal was merely to give Ukraine the means to “take back territory that has been seized from it since February 24,”
    from.

    But isolating and threatening a feasible invasion of Crimea, by taking the rest of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, with heightened tactical nuclear risk and subsequent guaranteed NATO annihilation of Russian forces in Ukraine and... should produce a peace treaty. Ukraine would have to accept that. And losing most of the Donbas. The West would then guarantee Ukraine's security by absorbing it in to NATO.

    It's going to be the most interesting few months in history. Since the pre-Cambrian.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Sorry, the argument after 'from.' is dependent on it.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Hmmm, not even the beginning of the beginning, but something.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Even if Ukraine achieves much in the next 18 months, it would be all undone by Trump https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65573756
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Reported activity picking up.
    Wagner Chief claims Ukrainians are pushing out Russians in Bakmut.
    Russians claim to have repelled a major offensive.*
    Ukraine posts a video showing Russian soldiers with index finger to lips.

    *Russian claims are always suspect.

    Good luck hunting, Ukraine.
  • The video showed Ukrainian troops doing the shhh thing ... it's a kind of war effort thing - the Internet equivalent of the WW2 'Careless talk costs lives' posters.

    That burst dam is likely to cause problems if the Ukrainians counter-attack near Kherson.

    In any counter-attack the advantages tend to lie with the defenders unless the odds are on the attacking side.

    My guess would be moderate success in some quarters, stalemate elsewhere. The Russians aren't going to give in that easily.

    We seem to have a pendulum on this thread between Martin54's portents of doom on the one hand and Gramps49's sunny optimism on the other.

    My guess would be that the reality - such as we can ever get to it given levels of propaganda on both sides - is somewhere in the middle.

    I'm not a betting man but my money would be on a bloody stalemate for some time to come.

    Then there's the issue of nuclear power stations in vulnerable positions.

    It ain't pretty.

    Sorry Gramps49, I fear your optimism is misplaced.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    They can't possibly counterattack near Kherson. They couldn't before the dam burst. Let alone now. It's called realism. They can't do combined operations (no air superiority let alone supremacy). They can't do amphibious. They can't do airborne. They can't even take back Bakhmut on the way to coming up against Russia's truly formidable defences. Hence your bloody stalemate.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    edited June 2023
    The Ukrainians have taken the Bakhmut heights from which they can observe and zero in on any Russian movements in the city.

    Of note, is the Russian forces in Bakhmut are not as capable was the Wagner forces. Wagner has pulled out,

    The destruction of the dam will indeed stop any advances in Kherson, thus protecting Crimea for the time being.

    Of note, also, is the psychops using an AI generated video of Putin calling for full mobilization. Obviously, it was designed to confuse Russian viewers, and it seems to have worked.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    edited June 2023
    Which 'Bakhmut heights'. The ones they never lost or others? Yahoo and Ukraine Today aren't good intel. Even the Daily Express isn't claiming it.
  • EirenistEirenist Shipmate
    Bakhmut Heights must be near the mountains visible from Helsinki in le arree's Lookin-Glass War.
  • Gramps49Gramps49 Shipmate
    Sorry Gramps49, I fear your optimism is misplaced.

    In the history of empires, all invaders will eventually leave. It might be within the year or within a thousand years; but, ultimately, they leave. Considering how adamant Ukrainians are about defending their territory, my bet is it will be sooner rather than later.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Are the indigenous Russophones of Crimea and Donbas invaders? They can always be ethnically cleansed on an impossible Ukrainian victory I suppose.
  • Gramps49 wrote: »
    Sorry Gramps49, I fear your optimism is misplaced.

    In the history of empires, all invaders will eventually leave. It might be within the year or within a thousand years; but, ultimately, they leave. Considering how adamant Ukrainians are about defending their territory, my bet is it will be sooner rather than later.

    So when are all the people whose ancestors invaded what are now the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa going to leave?

    When is the US going to hand Texas back to Mexico?

    Yes, the Ukrainians are adamant about defending their territory. Putin is adamant about taking it. Who is going to blink first?

    I don't expect the Ukraine to be totally absorbed within the Russian Empire. They have too many friends in the West for that to happen. But I can't see things going back to how they were either.

    Short of a miracle this is going to go on and on and on.
  • Martin54Martin54 Suspended
    Up until January 20, 2025 at the latest.
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