Ukrainian Counter offensive--will they be able to take Crimea?
Came across this article discussing whether Ukraine can take Crimea.
The question is: how successful will Ukraine be in its counter offensive?
A number of countries have donated Leopard II tanks. Britain has donated a squad of Centurions. The United States will begin training Ukrainian solders on the Abrams in May. It will probably take at least a couple of months to get them in the field, though.
This is along with the contributions of older aircraft and drones. What Ukraine would really like, though, is the F16 or its equivalents.
Are we ready for this?
The question is: how successful will Ukraine be in its counter offensive?
A number of countries have donated Leopard II tanks. Britain has donated a squad of Centurions. The United States will begin training Ukrainian solders on the Abrams in May. It will probably take at least a couple of months to get them in the field, though.
This is along with the contributions of older aircraft and drones. What Ukraine would really like, though, is the F16 or its equivalents.
Are we ready for this?
Comments
Putin may resort to battlefield nukes or similar nasties.
Even if they were successful then, as the article says, any attempt to 'detox' - read 'ethnically cleanse' - Crimea would embarrass Western supporters.
We are talking Yugoslavia with nukes.
Any attempt to retake Crimea would not be pretty. Heavy casualties on both sides I'd imagine and if they settle for blockade or long range bombardment then we'd see considerable civilian losses too.
All in all, the whole situation is pretty shitty. We can't turn the clock back though. How the whole sorry mess can be resolved is anyone's guess.
At this point it looks like the Ukrainians are planning to cut off Crimea by pushing through Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and Mariupol. It appears a landing across the Dniepr is developing. That is high-risk and it means Ukraine is putting all in.
Yes, the West has struggled to keep up with supplying ammunition, but it is quite likely the Russians are also having their problems with supplying their front lines considering the sanctions that have been imposed on them. I think it ultimately depends on which side has more munitions in reserve.
The Russians have yet to establish air superiority in the theatre. Time will tell, though.
They have superiority, enough for ground attack against armour. Kill the Leopards and there's no combined services.
One is to under-estimate the Russians. The other is to over-estimate them.
I'd see it as a gesture rather than a serious attempt to assassinate Putin.
It could lead to even nastier developments though. As if 21 people killed by Russian bombardment today isn't nasty enough.
That's some pretty unfortunate symbolism, from the POV of refuting the pro-Russian argument that the Ukrainian resistance are all just a buncha nazis.
I mean, I get the idea of hitting Russia on the anniversary of their biggest military victory("Where's your great army NOW? Better surrender while ya still can."). But it's kinda like if someone today were to bomb Washington DC on the anniversary of the Union victory in the ACW. He'd be kind of inviting people to identify his cause with the Confederacy.
See these comments.
The question is who benefits from the attack? Putin,
No, I doubt if Ukraine was responsible, at any rate officially. Who knows whether some maverick might not have decided to see what a drone could do? A dangerous game, though, giving Putin just the excuse he wants to fire up the nukes. With that in mind, I'm more inclined to think that Putin himself was responsible...
Distinctly possible. Some points by Adam Silverman:
In the end I suppose it doesn't matter. The Kremlin will use this to claim victimhood regardless of the truth of the situation.
This one seems odd and certainly not a serious attempt to assassinate Putin.
I don't know why but I'm still not inclined to see it as a 'false flag' thing. Too convenient.
The LSE analyst interviewed by BBC Radio 4 said he'd put money on Ukraine being behind it. I suspect it might be. Look, we can hit the Kremlin. I doubt the drones were launched from inside the Ukraine though.
Saying that does not imply any sympathy for Putin's invasion.
The theory I've heard is it's mostly just a bluff to get more ammunition.
I suppose that illustrates a drawback of hiring private mercenaries: they'll be less reluctant than regular troops to trash you publically when things go to hell.
So you have no basis of saying aged, and won't in 20 years when the highly evolved system will be 60 years old.
MIM-104A
MIM-104B (PAC-1)
MIM-104C (PAC-2)
MIM-104D (PAC-2/GEM)
MIM-104E (PAC-2/GEM+)
MIM-104F (PAC-3)
...Configuration 1
...Configuration 2
...Configuration 3
PAC-3 MSE
SkyCeptor (PAAC-4)
with as many software upgrades, 4 in PAC-3, the latest under test for the past 4 years.
Evolution to come:
So no wonder it can take out obsolete hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhals (Daggers).
There was an 1980s type-it-in computer game called "Doge of Venice" where if you hired mercenaries and later fired them they would run riot, giving messages such as "THEY HAVE GOUGED OUT ONE OF YOUR EYES AND BEATEN YOU TO A PULP - AGAIN"
it's?!!
Should be my punishment.
But US 'strategic ambiguity' may change.
from.
But isolating and threatening a feasible invasion of Crimea, by taking the rest of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, with heightened tactical nuclear risk and subsequent guaranteed NATO annihilation of Russian forces in Ukraine and... should produce a peace treaty. Ukraine would have to accept that. And losing most of the Donbas. The West would then guarantee Ukraine's security by absorbing it in to NATO.
It's going to be the most interesting few months in history. Since the pre-Cambrian.
Wagner Chief claims Ukrainians are pushing out Russians in Bakmut.
Russians claim to have repelled a major offensive.*
Ukraine posts a video showing Russian soldiers with index finger to lips.
*Russian claims are always suspect.
Good luck hunting, Ukraine.
That burst dam is likely to cause problems if the Ukrainians counter-attack near Kherson.
In any counter-attack the advantages tend to lie with the defenders unless the odds are on the attacking side.
My guess would be moderate success in some quarters, stalemate elsewhere. The Russians aren't going to give in that easily.
We seem to have a pendulum on this thread between Martin54's portents of doom on the one hand and Gramps49's sunny optimism on the other.
My guess would be that the reality - such as we can ever get to it given levels of propaganda on both sides - is somewhere in the middle.
I'm not a betting man but my money would be on a bloody stalemate for some time to come.
Then there's the issue of nuclear power stations in vulnerable positions.
It ain't pretty.
Sorry Gramps49, I fear your optimism is misplaced.
Of note, is the Russian forces in Bakhmut are not as capable was the Wagner forces. Wagner has pulled out,
The destruction of the dam will indeed stop any advances in Kherson, thus protecting Crimea for the time being.
Of note, also, is the psychops using an AI generated video of Putin calling for full mobilization. Obviously, it was designed to confuse Russian viewers, and it seems to have worked.
In the history of empires, all invaders will eventually leave. It might be within the year or within a thousand years; but, ultimately, they leave. Considering how adamant Ukrainians are about defending their territory, my bet is it will be sooner rather than later.
So when are all the people whose ancestors invaded what are now the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa going to leave?
When is the US going to hand Texas back to Mexico?
Yes, the Ukrainians are adamant about defending their territory. Putin is adamant about taking it. Who is going to blink first?
I don't expect the Ukraine to be totally absorbed within the Russian Empire. They have too many friends in the West for that to happen. But I can't see things going back to how they were either.
Short of a miracle this is going to go on and on and on.